Speculation: 2017-18 Roster Discussion - Part 2

[LTIR Trickery]

lol @ the Sustr hate, he actually has improved tons since his rookie year, are you guys blind?

You might wanna grab a mirror...

 

[Sky04]

Ah, it's much better in a dialogue to assume somebody has a selective memory or a hatred toward a player. Note taking commences.

So because people widely praised Killorn when he had 50% of his goals in the first two weeks on this board, should we still be praising him now? No. Great. Kudos to Sustr for having 10 great games a year out of 82. On one hand, you complain about Palat not showing up until February and on the other hand Sustr has somehow improved because a collection of fans on this board praised him for a 10-15 or however many game stretch.

Specifically, what has improved in his +300 games in the NHL? Because I sure as hell am not noticing a whole lot. I've given him credit in the past on two occasions where it FINALLY looked like he was developing and progressing, but like clockwork, the dark side of Sustr appears and it's the version we got from him at game 1, as opposed to game 274. To be clear, im not saying he should be top 2 or 4 material, but at the 6/7, he's a liability out there against tough competition. I'll grant you 15 games a year he looks competent, but for the remaining 67, he looks like an emergency call up, not a guy that has played over 300 games including two deep runs in the playoffs. His progress just isn't there in my opinion. Certainly not worth clogging up the lane for Dotchin, Slater and potentially Sergachev.

Secondly, one defenseman has 274 regular season games and the other has 54. Witkowski has provided stability in the same role and brings physicality, something we are in dire need of. The only thing Sustr beats him on is his foot speed, and not by much. The saving grace for Sustr over Witkowski is his reach. Besides that, we'd save a little on cap and have somebody willing to actually use his body to tie up his man. That's with 54 games played. I feel confident that if Luke had 200 games or even as many as Sustr, he'd be more effective. Recency bias? If by 274 games recent then yes, watching him lose coverages Matt Carle would be ashamed of at 6'8" in nearly 300 games played, then absolutely. It's the same story with him year after year. Look good, suck, suck, suck even more, look good, finish off poorly. If you're gonna lynch Palat, Johnson and Killorn, it's only consistent to do so with Sustr's lackluster play for 75% of the time.

Thats funny, if Witkowski is such a stable 3rd pariing dman why is he career AHLer at 27? Cause he wouldnt do well full time in the NHL. By 40 games with him in the lineup youd be begging for Sustr back. Lots of people look "good" in short stints.

Killorn played with Drouin the remainder of the season and still went cold on a secondary scoring line in his comfort zone, Sustr got pushed up a pairing defensively surely you understand the difference.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I don't agree. In fact it's mindboggling to me why he's used for defensive zone starts so much. Arguably his biggest weakness are zone exits. The guy can't clear let alone hit a target with an outlet pass to save his life. His unwillingness or inability to play the body even one time out of five despite his huge frame is so frustrating and feels like such a waste of tools. He's always going for the poke check, misses it 9/10 times and then gets beat flat footed afterwards. Time after time. No adaption, no lessons learned, same thing again and again. In board battles he'll never pin his man to the wall although he's a giant and let somebody else do the digging. Always digging for the puck himself - and failing. If there was a highlight video of defensive plays for last season I'd bet Sustr wouldn't be in it. And what does he have to offer offensively? Unless you're Garrison his numbers aren't exactly something to look up to.

For the majority of the season I found myself concerned everytime he hit the ice. It's like we're playing with 4.5 players versus 5 when he's on. At least that was my perception for the most part.

Don't get me wrong I would be so happy to see him finally figure it out. He's not going to be the next Chara but damn it kid, get a grip, use your huge body to put some fear in your opponents instead of backing down way too soon everytime somebody crosses your blueline, fanning your stick around like someone playing hockey for the first time.


Edit: I'm not saying he hasn't improved in his 250+ games. I'm saying what he brings to the table now and on a regular basis is still not good enough. Is he okay on a 3rd pairing with someone like Coburn? Most likely yes. Are there better options out there? Definite yes. Should management look into giving somebody else in the organisation a chance in his place? I'm leaning to yes. Ask yourself are we going to be worse with a Koekkoek-Coburn pairing than Sustr-Coburn? No, and there is a good chance we're getting better when KK gets some games under his belt. Replace KK with any other ready-ish defensive prospect in the system.

No, he can hit a target. An opposing stick.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

sustr has not improved in my eyes. He has not moved forward at all. If i never see him again take a pass going to net from kucherov and buy it in the goalies belly or miss the net entirely or just scrub the puck lmfao I will be very happy.

I believe he has a little value as a 6-7 but thats it and its a little value.

His reach can get him out of harm but if hes penned in zone he can be pretty much almost useless at times.

I held out hope for him but gave up like 2 years ago honestly.

Nothing about him jumps off the board or is exciting

 

[VoluntaryDom]

sustr has not improved in my eyes. He has not moved forward at all. If i never see him again take a pass going to net from kucherov and buy it in the goalies belly or miss the net entirely or just scrub the puck lmfao I will be very happy.

I believe he has a little value as a 6-7 but thats it and its a little value.

His reach can get him out of harm but if hes penned in zone he can be pretty much almost useless at times.

I held out hope for him but gave up like 2 years ago honestly.

Nothing about him jumps off the board or is exciting

Agreed completely.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

I thought Sustr made big progress the year before but he was a burden until late in the season this year, especially on the breakout, man he was just atrocious.

 

[The Macho King]

I will say this - Sustr got a lot better without the puck. In the D zone he is generally in the right area. His board play also got better (although there was no way to go but up there - how can someone so big be so bad along the boards is mind-boggling).

But the biggest problem isn't positioning in the Dzone, it's what he does when he's in the spot. He's not great at taking a guy out of the play (either with his body or with his stick). He gets beaten *a lot* one on one, or a guy in front of the net has their stick free when he really should be tying it up.

And then we get to when the puck is on his stick. That's where he just falls apart (although this is partly system and people need to ****ing realize this). He has the worst first pass on the team. He collapses under a determined forecheck. He probably leads the team in failed clears. And he doesn't have the footspeed to make up for those mistakes when they happen.

Also - regarding our breakouts. We reverse the puck too damn much. We basically beg the other team to set up a forecheck and lose any advantage from breaking the zone early. It really pisses me off. That's one of those things where you can look at the Pens and realize that they rarely move the puck backwards in the defensive zone. We do it constantly.

 

[Sky04]

I thought Sustr made big progress the year before but he was a burden until late in the season this year, especially on the breakout, man he was just atrocious.

He was playing 17 and a half minutes a night after the injuries hit because we had absolutely no other option, Witkowski needs to be sheltered more so than Sustr and Koekkoek was flat out terrible before he was sent down.

I mean getting mad at him not being able to perform in a top-4 role for 1m a year is like getting mad at JT Brown for not being able to score even if he played on the 1st line, it's out of their skill level.

 

[The Macho King]

He was playing 17 and a half minutes a night after the injuries hit because we had absolutely no other option, Witkowski needs to be sheltered more so than Sustr and Koekkoek was flat out terrible before he was sent down.

I mean getting mad at him not being able to perform in a top-4 role for 1m a year is like getting mad at JT Brown for not being able to score even if he played on the 1st line, it's out of their skill level.

I (generally) agree with all of this, although I still think - at the end of the year when Dotchin came up and Sustr was back to being slotted on the third pairing, that he was pretty damn bad. Early in the season he was actually pretty good, though.

But that's neither here nor there. There are two options we could go with instead of Sustr as #6. A better #6, or a young player who has the potential to be more than a #6. Sustr is what he is now. If he's on our roster it's not the end of the world, but I would much rather either bet on a) a more steady player, or b) a player with more potential.

Note: I don't think Witkowski is the answer... odd that he's being brought up as a potential solution. He's pretty damn bad (although interestingly I actually kind of liked him as a winger on the 4th line).

 

[Sky04]

I (generally) agree with all of this, although I still think - at the end of the year when Dotchin came up and Sustr was back to being slotted on the third pairing, that he was pretty damn bad. Early in the season he was actually pretty good, though.

But that's neither here nor there. There are two options we could go with instead of Sustr as #6. A better #6, or a young player who has the potential to be more than a #6. Sustr is what he is now. If he's on our roster it's not the end of the world, but I would much rather either bet on a) a more steady player, or b) a player with more potential.

Note: I don't think Witkowski is the answer... odd that he's being brought up as a potential solution. He's pretty damn bad (although interestingly I actually kind of liked him as a winger on the 4th line).

I mean I don't even like him but the criticism is off-base, unless of course you think he's a #1/2 then sure he's as disappointing as some people are making out, as a #6 he's probably in line with every other #6 out there.

Like you said, we could use an upgrade but that's far from our bigger issues.

 

[DFC]

I thought Sustr made big progress the year before but he was a burden until late in the season this year, especially on the breakout, man he was just atrocious.

That's pretty much what I saw too. He settled in pretty well at the first of the year, then became pretty atrocious later on. Which is kind of the pattern we've always seen with him (or the reverse).

I'd just like to move on from him. When he's on his game, he's competent, but when he's off, he's really, really off.

I guess there's always going to be a worst player on the team, and no fanbase is ever going to be happy with their bottom pairing defensemen. But I don't think it's too far-fetched to believe we could find someone (maybe even Dotchin, if we acquire a new RH partner for Hedman) who can play a generic game with some consistency.

 

[Sky04]

That's pretty much what I saw too. He settled in pretty well at the first of the year, then became pretty atrocious later on. Which is kind of the pattern we've always seen with him (or the reverse).

I'd just like to move on from him. When he's on his game, he's competent, but when he's off, he's really, really off.

I guess there's always going to be a worst player on the team, and no fanbase is ever going to be happy with their bottom pairing defensemen. But I don't think it's too far-fetched to believe we could find someone (maybe even Dotchin, if we acquire a new RH partner for Hedman) who can play a generic game with some consistency.

It's like tweaking your bottom 6 like we've been doing the past couple years, fixing your #6 defense-man is a minor issue you tweak after your major issues are taken care of otherwise it does nothing in the overall scheme. We have a hole in the PP now that the primary puck distributor is gone, no clear #3 defense man, no transition game whatsoever and a lack of size/goal scoring depth. I'd rather have attention and resources spent on addressing these issues than to see if we can find a replacement for Sustr.

 

[DFC]

It's like tweaking your bottom 6 like we've been doing the past couple years, fixing your #6 defense-man is a minor issue you tweak after your major issues are taken care of otherwise it does nothing in the overall scheme. We have a hole in the PP now that the primary puck distributor is gone, no clear #3 defense man, no transition game whatsoever and a lack of size/goal scoring depth. I'd rather have attention and resources spent on addressing these issues than to see if we can find a replacement for Sustr.

When Sustr's "off," he becomes a pretty major issue though.

I agree that replacing him isn't the top priority, but that doesn't mean it isn't something that should be looked at. It depends on how the rest of the moves shake out, sure, and maybe we could even keep Sustr around as the extra D. But addressing some of the concerns you're talking about could be the thing that pushes Sustr out of the lineup. Like, if we acquire a solid RHD to play with Hedman, suddenly it's Dotchin vs. Sustr for that bottom slot, and I think Dotchin showed us enough consistency last year that it should go to him.

If we can't improve the D, then you're right, replacing Sustr isn't a priority. But it seems like, if we do, he's just naturally one of the guys getting replaced, even if it's just by someone else getting bumped down.

 

[The Macho King]

It's like tweaking your bottom 6 like we've been doing the past couple years, fixing your #6 defense-man is a minor issue you tweak after your major issues are taken care of otherwise it does nothing in the overall scheme. We have a hole in the PP now that the primary puck distributor is gone, no clear #3 defense man, no transition game whatsoever and a lack of size/goal scoring depth. I'd rather have attention and resources spent on addressing these issues than to see if we can find a replacement for Sustr.

I actually disagree with you there, though. The way Cooper rolls his pairs, a #6 sees about 15 minutes a night EV/PK. Setting aside the wisdom of that, that means a bad #6 (especially on the road where we can't line match), has a high likelihood of having an impact on the game (be it positive or negative).

 

[BucsNBolts]

I'm hoping Dotchin is protected now. Really like him.

 

[Sky04]

When Sustr's "off," he becomes a pretty major issue though.

I agree that replacing him isn't the top priority, but that doesn't mean it isn't something that should be looked at. It depends on how the rest of the moves shake out, sure, and maybe we could even keep Sustr around as the extra D. But addressing some of the concerns you're talking about could be the thing that pushes Sustr out of the lineup. Like, if we acquire a solid RHD to play with Hedman, suddenly it's Dotchin vs. Sustr for that bottom slot, and I think Dotchin showed us enough consistency last year that it should go to him.

If we can't improve the D, then you're right, replacing Sustr isn't a priority. But it seems like, if we do, he's just naturally one of the guys getting replaced, even if it's just by someone else getting bumped down.

A RHD is such a rare commodity and will likely cost an arm and a leg barring a miracle deal, I think we'd likely to get a LHD instead. Keep Dotchin with Hedman until he faulters, a strong LHD with Stralman on the 2nd pairing would also be a significant improvement.

 

[Sky04]

I actually disagree with you there, though. The way Cooper rolls his pairs, a #6 sees about 15 minutes a night EV/PK. Setting aside the wisdom of that, that means a bad #6 (especially on the road where we can't line match), has a high likelihood of having an impact on the game (be it positive or negative).

I thought this was one of the things he improved on last season along with his line combinations earlier in the year, Dru was getting his minutes, and the bottom pairing was seeing less than 10mins a night. So that's a positive on the Cooper note.

Edit: I lied, checked the icetimes, bottom pairing 16mins per game

 

[DFC]

A RHD is such a rare commodity and will likely cost an arm and a leg barring a miracle deal, I think we'd likely to get a LHD instead. Keep Dotchin with Hedman until he faulters, a strong LHD with Stralman on the 2nd pairing would also be a significant improvement.

I'm more in favor of going this route too, but if even if we acquire a LHD and get rid of Garrison, that gives us:

Hedman - Dotchin
Acquisition - Stralman
Coburn - X

X = Sustr
X = Koekkoek
X = UFA
X = Prospect

I'm still not thrilled about giving those minutes to Sustr. Maybe keeping him around as a 7 and only giving him games when he's earning them or when we're out of healthy bodies. ...But we all know how that goes with Coop.

 

[Sky04]

​

I'm more in favor of going this route too, but if even if we acquire a LHD and get rid of Garrison, that gives us:

Hedman - Dotchin
Acquisition - Stralman
Coburn - X

X = Sustr
X = Koekkoek
X = UFA
X = Prospect

I'm still not thrilled about giving those minutes to Sustr. Maybe keeping him around as a 7 and only giving him games when he's earning them or when we're out of healthy bodies. ...But we all know how that goes with Coop.

If we do go that route, I'd hope Sergachev is good enough to make the roster as Coburn can play the right side on that bottom pairing. If we're going to invest in a player learning the ropes with a roster spot than he's the top candidate.

I was going to suggest this but I think if Sergachev makes the roster and we get a LHD, Koekkoek's time could be coming to an end. He needs NHL minutes now and going the AHL does him no good anymore, he'd be better off used in a package in a trade.

 

[The Macho King]

I thought this was one of the things he improved on last season along with his line combinations earlier in the year, Dru was getting his minutes, and the bottom pairing was seeing less than 10mins a night. So that's a positive on the Cooper note.

Edit: I lied, checked the icetimes, bottom pairing 16mins per game

He was doing that with the forward lines, but D was still rolling their shifts.

 

[DFC]

​

If we do go that route, I'd hope Sergachev is good enough to make the roster as Coburn can play the right side on that bottom pairing. If we're going to invest in a player learning the ropes with a roster spot than he's the top candidate.

I think we're all in that boat. I just have no faith in Jon Cooper playing a 19 year old D. I mean, I doubt Sergachev is going to come in and already be ahead of SK, and SK can't get minutes under Coop.

 

[DFC]

He was doing that with the forward lines, but D was still rolling their shifts.

Coop or Bowness?

 

[Sky04]

I think we're all in that boat. I just have no faith in Jon Cooper playing a 19 year old D. I mean, I doubt Sergachev is going to come in and already be ahead of SK, and SK can't get minutes under Coop.

I didn't think of that, imagine if we started finally playing Koekkoek because "he's put in his due" over the more talented Sergachev, then hesits as a 7th defenseman the majority of the season cause he can't go to the AHL, sees no PP or ice time, gets upset...sounds familiar... all of a sudden a KHL offer sounds more appealing. The story of Cooper and young talented players continues.

 

[DFC]

I didn't think of that, imagine if we started finally playing Koekkoek because "he's put in his due" over the more talented Sergachev, then hesits as a 7th defenseman the majority of the season cause he can't go to the AHL, sees no PP or ice time, gets upset...sounds familiar... all of a sudden a KHL offer sounds more appealing. The story of Cooper and young talented players continues.

I'm genuinely afraid of this scenario. I kind of think we're going to give Serg his NHL look, and then Yzerman's going to send him back to junior, regardless of how he looks, just as a precaution.

Having another talented prospect to hold back is another reason this Drouin deal kills me. I could have been okay with it if we'd gotten back an established NHLer, whom Coop would have used accordingly. Instead we sent Drouin to arguably our biggest rival, and the return could easily wind up spending years paying dues.

 

[The Macho King]

Coop or Bowness?

Distinction without a difference. Cooper is the coach. Buck stops there.