World Cup: 2016 World Cup — Team Canada (Part III)

[Sens of Anarchy]

http://hockeystats.ca/game/2016080104 G1

http://hockeystats.ca/game/2016080107 G2
http://ice.wch2016.com/boxscore?id=2016080107 G2 TOI


G1 - Weber had 43.75% OZ starts - 67.74% ES CF% (#1 among Canadian dmen) - 20:02 mins

G2 - Weber had 38.46% OZ starts - 66.67% ES CF% (#2 behind Pie) - 22:58 mins (by far the most mins)

hello advanced stats bashers!

Eye test was his issue for me Saturday night, had front row of the 300's at the red line. He looked slow, and so did his decision making I do think the older players are going to take a little longer to get aclimatized but the Canadian D core as a group looked sloppy Saturday night. I think a faster team might give them issues.

It was funny despite the score I came away the most impressed with the pair of Carlson and Mcdonough. Mcdonough was unbelivable Saturday night, breaking up plays all over the ice. He was stepping up taking away lanes and creating offense. The canadian forwards were just much better than the US but the top 4 D for the USA was really strong.

Have not gone to a game but IMO Weber has looked good overall. He has been a force. He has had a couple bobbles with the puck in his own end where the puck was turned over along the boards . so nothing too dangerous. I think every D in the close games has had some minor issues. I have liked his game.

Using analytics on a game by game basis over a total sample of 2 games is stretching it to make a point as far as I am concerned. Analytics based arguments are often like taking looking at very specific situational numbers with little context. A range of statistics over a broader sample I think can be useful.

 

[TT1]

Have not gone to a game but IMO Weber has looked good overall. He has been a force. He has had a couple bobbles with the puck in his own end where the puck was turned over along the boards . so nothing too dangerous. I think every D in the close games has had some minor issues. I have liked his game.

Using analytics on a game by game basis over a total sample of 2 games is stretching it to make a point as far as I am concerned. Analytics based arguments are often like taking looking at very specific situational numbers with little context. A range of statistics over a broader sample I think can be useful.

Yes analytics require context but this is the 1st time in a while where we've seen him play with competent players, so i thought it'd be interesting to see how well he's doing.

Alot of people don't know this but Weber had elite advanced stats until about 2013, from 2014 onwards is when his adv stats started to decline. Incidentally that's when he started to play alot of d-zone minutes with Gaustad's line (who's pretty much the worst analytics player in the league). Lotsa factors to consider.

 

[xxxx]

new power-plays:

Seguin-Crosby-Perry-Burns-Thornton
Stamkos-Toews-Tavares-Getzlaf-Doughty

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

new power-plays:

Seguin-Crosby-Perry-Burns-Thornton
Stamkos-Toews-Tavares-Getzlaf-Doughty

Team Canada is doing a favor to other teams by not putting Weber on the powerplay

 

[xxxx]

Team Canada is doing a favor to other teams by not putting Weber on the powerplay

we play more players than just those two lines. In the first game against the US we had 3 PPs, and Weber had 2 minutes in PP ice time. The second game, we had 8 pps, Weber with 2:15 there. Couture had 4 minutes last game. Duchene 1:20. Giroux 2:16.

 

[xxxx]

The difference is in the ice-time and not the quality of players.

Difference in game 1 from top to bottom among forwards.

11:21 for couture, 17:32 for getzlaf.

Difference in game 2 from top to bottom among forwards.

10:59 for duchene, 16:42 for getzlaf.

It was very easy to tell the top line, Marchand, Crosby and Bergeron, in game one...they had lion share of TC scoring chances/shots..

Here' are the lines from the last two games, in numbers (TOI):

The first game:
15:40 - 16:58 - 15:56
16:49 - 17:31 - 13:16
11:27 - 13:51 - 15:33
13:35 - 12:47 - 12:11

20:49 - 20:02
15:23 - 20:02
20:29 - 20:20

Among the D, everyone's getting the same time basically. Muzzin has 5 minutes less, but that is largely because he didnd't play any PP times and not that much on PK (0:55). Time on ice at ES was 14:19 for Doughty, and 14:28 for Muzzin.


The second game:
13:39 -- 14:51 -- 16:42
15:43 -- 16:37 -- 13:55
14:42 -- 16:21 -- 14:37
10:59 -- 14:51 -- 12:28

20:19 -- 22:58
16:34 -- 20:05
13:29 -- 18:00


On D, Pietrangelo's ice time is very limited (13:29) in comparison to his first game, but that's probably mainly because he isn't used on a PP, and Canada played 8 of those, so there's that.


So, yeah, there is a difference, but it's like so small. If I shuffled the lines, would you know what line is what players?

 

[Scotty B]

It will be a trivia question. Which GM traded away the first 2 picks from the 2010 entry draft.

That wouldn't be a good trivia question, since the year would give it away. Which GM traded away both the first and second overall picks, from the same draft.

 

[Philly85*]

I will say their jerseys are beautiful though, would like to have one

 

[puckluck33*]

And btw, how sexy wouldn't this top-6 be.

Doughty-Karlsson

OEL-Subban

Letang-Hedman

Good luck stopping those guys, haha..

Shea Weber obviously the best shot in the entire nhl by far.

 

[Frank the Tank]

That wouldn't be a good trivia question, since the year would give it away. Which GM traded away both the first and second overall picks, from the same draft.

Bobby Clarke

 

[Saskatoon]

Yes analytics require context but this is the 1st time in a while where we've seen him play with competent players, so i thought it'd be interesting to see how well he's doing.

Alot of people don't know this but Weber had elite advanced stats until about 2013, from 2014 onwards is when his adv stats started to decline. Incidentally that's when he started to play alot of d-zone minutes with Gaustad's line (who's pretty much the worst analytics player in the league). Lotsa factors to consider.

He is also playing with Vlasic this tournament who is an advanced stats superstar so one could make the argument an uptick in play could be partially attributed to him - not to mention being on a team full of superstars.

 

[TT1]

He is also playing with Vlasic this tournament who is an advanced stats superstar so one could make the argument an uptick in play could be partially attributed to him - not to mention being on a team full of superstars.

Weber has better adv stats than Vlasic in these past 2 games tho, much better.

 

[86Habs]

Per Chris Johnston:

- Giroux and Muzzin to be scratched for tomorrow's game
- Price to start, Crawford to back him up

 

[Frank the Tank]

Per Chris Johnston:

- Giroux and Muzzin to be scratched for tomorrow's game
- Price to start, Crawford to back him up

So we're looking at:

Marchand-Crosby-Bergeron
Couture-Toews-Stamkos
Tavares-Getzlaf-Perry
Duchene-Thornton-Seguin

Vlasic-Weber
Bouwmeester-Doughty
Pietrangelo-Burns

Price
Crawford

 

[86Habs]

So we're looking at:

Marchand-Crosby-Bergeron
Couture-Toews-Stamkos
Tavares-Getzlaf-Perry
Duchene-Thornton-Seguin

Vlasic-Weber
Bouwmeester-Doughty
Pietrangelo-Burns

Price
Crawford

Yes, with the caveat that Johnston's tweet with today's practice lines had "Thornton - Seguin/Giroux - Duchene", so take that for what you will but Seguin may be centering that line tomorrow evening.

 

[BruinsBtn]

The rumours, if they're true, that Team Canada is married to Price are worrisome.

If you're a longshot team, and you need GREAT goaltending to win the tournament, that's a risk worth taking.

But Canada only needs solid goaltending to win and with Price you're taking an awful risk that he's rusty, plays badly and single-handedly blows the tournament. That's the kind of blunder that could end Babcock's Team Canada career.

 

[777]

The rumours, if they're true, that Team Canada is married to Price are worrisome.

If you're a longshot team, and you need GREAT goaltending to win the tournament, that's a risk worth taking.

But Canada only needs solid goaltending to win and with Price you're taking an awful risk that he's rusty, plays badly and single-handedly blows the tournament. That's the kind of blunder that could end Babcock's Team Canada career.

Married to him? Seems like he'll be the starter for game 1. If he struggles I'm sure Holtby will take over. But if he plays well he'll keep the job. His puck handling was a perfect fit for that Olympic team IMO.

He should have Russia (exhibition) and then Czech as two games to get him back up to speed. But acting like Babcock will blindly start him every game even if he sucks is silly

"Relax, just chill out"

 

[TT1]

The rumours, if they're true, that Team Canada is married to Price are worrisome.

If you're a longshot team, and you need GREAT goaltending to win the tournament, that's a risk worth taking.

But Canada only needs solid goaltending to win and with Price you're taking an awful risk that he's rusty, plays badly and single-handedly blows the tournament. That's the kind of blunder that could end Babcock's Team Canada career.

let him play the round robin games first, evaluate him after (or during) that.

if he gets lit up in ~2 games then they obviously won't play him, Babcock isnt dumb.

 

[BruinsBtn]

let him play the round robin games first, evaluate him after (or during) that.

Lose two games, heck even lose one game badly in the round robin and your tournament could be over.

 

[Mattb124]

The old slow Joe narrative is hilarious. He was 4th in the NHL is both scoring and take-aways, plenty fast enough on offense and as a back checker ro be elite, and is still a better player than Hall regardless of his natural position or age.

 

[Scotty B]

The old slow Joe narrative is hilarious. He was 4th in the NHL is both scoring and take-aways, plenty fast enough on offense and as a back checker ro be elite, and is still a better player than Hall regardless of his natural position or age.

He might look better against lesser competition such as everyday NHLers, but against elite World Cup competition, the dynamic skating of a Hall is a Big Plus. Add to this, Hall's past success with Crosby, and the fact that we really didn't need another center, with the logjam of centers already, tipped the balance Big Time in Hall's favor for me. Moreover, I was far from alone in this OP.

In similar fashion, some might argue that Thornton is a better NHLer than Bergeron, both being natural centers. But Bergeron is younger, more versatile, can play all 3 forward positions, plus has himself demonstrated chemistry with Crosby, hence is a much better fit for our A team than Big Joe pour moi...

 

[Mattb124]

I think it is smart that the powers that be don't look at age and chemistry with Crosby as being the primary selection criteria.

 

[Barrie22]

Speed speed speed speed. You heard it here all you need is speed and to be a natural winger to be better then someone.

Doesn't matter that one player is much better defensively, much better offensively, much better at controlling the play.

 

[ijuka]

Speed speed speed speed. You heard it here all you need is speed and to be a natural winger to be better then someone.

Doesn't matter that one player is much better defensively, much better offensively, much better at controlling the play.

Of course, that's why Michael Grabner secretly is the best player in the world.

 

[Scotty B]

2 minutes of power play time in game 1. 2 minutes and 15 seconds game 2.

Team canada has an abundance of offensive threats from the backend to choose from that could be called power play specialists.

Burns and doughty have been much better power play producers for the past few years then weber.

Once again weber might have 1 good part of a power play game, but he is not the best option.

I'd put him on one of the pp units and let him use the cannon God gave him...definitely give the opposition cause for concern