Caser
Moderator
Hi Everyone!
As every year I have decided to start a Russian prospects dedicated pre-draft thread, so I hope you will join and contribute to the fun here. This season I could see a lot of people were asking about Russian players like Panarin or Zaitsev questions like 'How could they haven't been drafted at least in the n-th round??' , so I hope that couple of years away my threads might be useful for questions like that.
Every year I'm trying to find an appropriate format for this preview, so this year it is a Top17 (please don't ask me why it is 17, it just happened to be that way this time
) in order of how I see their draft stock value. I also added a short description of my viewing on player's assets and concerns, projection (by that I mean mostly the ceiling, if not stated otherwise), draft stock (including a bit of a guessing game about teams that might be interested, just for the sake of fun) and what to expect after everything is said and done. Those 17 guys are the ones that, in my opinion, have the highest chances to be drafted this year, but to be honest, at the point when it comes to make predictions for the second half of the draft, it is pretty much a guessing game itself and it's not like I would 100% believe my prognosis, so, as a bonus this time I made a very brief round-up of an 'alternate Top17' of honorable mentions — I'm pretty sure someone will get drafted from that list too, at least the probability theory is speaking in favor of that.
This year I expect a somewhat similar number of drafted Russian players as last year, with a slight hope that we can hit the 20 player mark this time. In terms of the teams, I'd expect something interesting from Chicago and Vancouver due to their recent Russian player success stories. Also this year there are a lot of talks that the draft age can be increased in the future, so that could provoke some trades including the first round ones, which could be interesting, as guys like Yakupov, Nichushkin, Khokhlachev, Vasilevskiy and even Malkin have been mentioned in various trade rumors. Finally, as it doesn't look that this year the depth would be great, that provides some good chance for the previously passed overagers to get drafted and that's why you can see quite a lot of those guys in my text.
Also I have made a small Frequently Asked Questions section about the 'Russian Factor' and other stuff this time (in the hidden part below), maybe it can be useful for someone:
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Why making a draft thread about Russians?
Well, why not? Actually I have done it for a couple of years already and it attracted some interest. Of course, I could place it in Russian part of the HFBoards, but not exactly a lot of posters are hanging out there.
What is that 'Russian factor' thing? What is the state of things about it now?
In general, Russian factor is a phenomenon of obvious Russian high-end talents falling in draft position much lower than they should just because of their nationality and/or league where they play (KHL) - see the classic examples of Tarasenko, Kuznetsov and Kucherov. In my opinion, it is not correct to define Russian factor without looking at its types:
What's the story about the U18 Russia NT and the meldonium?
Last summer Russian Hockey Federation decided to copy the USNTDP approach and created a separate U18 Russia NT team to compete in MHL this season. The approach was more or less successful and everyone was preparing for the U18 WJC until the meldonium scandal broke out. The issue with meldonium is that it was used widely in Russian sports for something like 30 years as a heart protective supplement and eventually got banned by WADA starting from this year. There was no big deal with stopping of its usage, but the deal became much bigger when it appeared that no one could tell how long it take for meldonium to leave the body completely. This situation resulted with hundreds of sportsmen being disqualified and Russian Hockey Federation decided that they don't want to risk sending U18 guys to the WJC, as a potential ban could cost them careers. Finally WADA introduced the minimum allowed level of meldonium, which resulted in most of disqualified sportsmen being cleared from the doping charges, but the damage has been done and the U17 team (reinforced with Sergachyov, Kuznetsov and Dmitri Zaitsev) had been sent to the WJC instead. Obviously it hit the draft stock of U18 NT players, as a lot of guys there missed out on a chance for a showcase in front of NHL scouts.
How long does it take for a Russian based player to come over?
Usually it is 2-4 years with the current tendency leaning more towards to the latter. Of course, every case is individual. Another thing is how long player rights are retained: according to the CBA it should be 4 years for players drafted at age 18-19 and 2 years for everyone else, but recently it was found out that those terms are defined only for leagues that have a transfer agreement with the NHL, so that means that for players drafted out of the KHL player rights can be held indefinitely.[/collapse]
NB! I would really like to ask you to restrain from the 'CHL Vs. KHL' related discussion, as it is almost a holywar and there is a separate thread for that.
1. Mikhail Sergachyov (LHD, 6'2", 220 lbs; OHL: 17G+40A in 67GP, OHL PO: 2G+3A in 5GP, U18 WJC: 0G+0A in 5GP)
I don't think that there has been left much to say about Sergachyov, so I'll try to keep it short. Sergachyov's biggest strength is that he actually has no real weaknesses in his skillset: smooth skating, strong defensive and intense physical play, supporting the offense, orchestrating the powerplay, applying powerful shots from the blue line — you just name it, although I must say that from my point of view most of these skills are more of a 'very good', not 'elite' level (except I can call his skating pretty elite for a 220lbs guy). A bit concerning is that he looked kind of 'out of gas' at the end of the season, not exactly surprising actually.
Comparison/Projection: Sergachyov's skillset totally reminds me of Vladimir Malakhov, also by that I mean that Sergachyov got more of an all-star caliber ceiling and not Norris caliber.
At the draft day: Sergachyov is in the 'best defender of the draft' discussion, but it is more like a holywar there. At the end of the day I will be very surprised if Sergachyov gets past Montreal and Colorado picks, although I actually will be surprised if he is picked earlier too.
After the draft: if Sergachyov's progress continues at the current pace, he can make the NHL already after he polishes his game a bit next season.
2. German Rubtsov (C/W, 6'1", 190 lbs; MHL: 12G+14A in 26GP, MHL PO: 0G+1A in 3GP)
Rubtsov is a two-way center, who is combining a flashy offensive game with being great and passionate at battling for the puck and winning it. In my opinion Rubtsov's biggest asset is his work-rate — I like to say that he doesn't play a 200ft game, his game is at least 220ft, I just can't remember a game where he didn't gave it all. Offensively he is a good skater, decent finisher, got quick hands and great vision and plays a rather high IQ playmaking game. On the concern side we might want to see a bit more explosiveness in the first step, more consistency (including faceoffs) and less injuries. Although when we are talking about inconsistency, it should be understood 'the Rubtsov way' — even when he is not having a good game, he is still a useful two-way guy, just not dominating. While Rubtsov's size is good for his age, he will still need to gain some more strength and improve the body usage to take his two-way game to the pro level, he is clearly already working on that though.
Comparision/Projection: in my opinion Rubtsov's ceiling is a Russian version of Jonathan Toews, as a bonus, given Rubtsov's competitiveness and work rate, I think his floor is rather high too. Also his hard working and hungry for winning character makes me think of some old-school Soviet greats who worked hard to survive and succeed in the harsh conditions of Tarasov's and Tikhonov's training systems, for example, I have heard that some people are comparing Rubtsov to Andrei Khomutov.
At the draft day: as with a lot of two-way guys it is the offensive projection part that defines the final draft position. Since Rubtsov didn't have a chance to make a good impression at the U18 WJC, it is unlikely that someone reaches very high for him (still, if someone does that, I totally won't blame them), but I also doubt that he falls lower than Top20. Looking at the draft order, Flyers could be in a very good position to get him or maybe Blackhawks will be willing to make a move for an appropriate pick.
After the draft: Rubtsov recently stated that he wants to play in the CHL next season, which is a bit surprising after he has been denying that all season long, so let's see what's happens next. If he goes to the CHL, he is still eligible to play in the AHL season after that; if he stays at Vityaz though, then I think he will be given a middle-six role there.
3. Vitaly Abramov (RW/C, 5'9", 175 lbs; QMJHL:38+55A in 63GP, QMJHL PO: 7G+6A in 10GP)
Abramov's name is a synonym to the word 'quickness', his highlight reel videos should be made with the "Flight of the Bumblebee" as a background theme. His assets include great skating, quick hands and release. Also I'd like to stress that I also see a very high hockey IQ in the way how he is able to see the ice, make a creative play and in his overall decision making ability. Another positive thing is the consistency he showed throughout his debut season in the Q. On the negative side is the size and everything related with that — physicality (although he doesn't look to be too weak on his skates), defensive abilities and potentially tougher transition to the pro level.
Comparison/Projection: I won't be too original — Johnny Gaudreau seems like a good comparison. For those who think that I'm overrating Abramov, I would like to remind that Gaudreau wasn't exactly rated that high at his draft year, while, on the other hand, Abramov was touted as an elite level Russian talent for several years now.
At the draft day: mostly due to his size Abramov probably won't be able to get into the first round, although I would really like the Capitals to draft him with their pick. I mean, just imagine him on Kuznetsov's wing — that Chelyabinsk duo could be making circles around their opponents. Also I could think of Chicago possibly trading up for him, as they winger prospect pool is not exactly great.
After the draft: Abramov will probably stay in QMJHL for the next two years, as it is unlikely that his size will allow him to make NHL roster earlier, although, in my opinion, it would be better to loan him to Europe at some point like San Jose did with Goldobin. And yes, I expect the fans to love this kid.
4. Vladimir Kuznetsov (W, 6'1", 214 lbs; QMJHL: 25G+33A in 68GP, OHL PO: 0G+1A in 5GP, U18 WJC: 0G+3A in 5GP)
Kuznetsov has that skating and size combination that most of the GMs are keen for. Also he is a good finisher, has an understanding of the combinational game and is willing to use his body for the physical play (although he has a room for improvements there). Defensive game is not there so far, also there are issues with consistency.
Comparison/Projection: Kuznetsov looks like a poor man's less north-south version of Guryanov to me. Projection would be a second line offensive winger, more of a complimentary than the offense generating one.
At the draft day: Kuznetsov looks like a stereotypical third-rounder to me, maybe even good enough for a lower half of the second round. Could be a good fit for a team like Florida.
After the draft day: 2 more years in the Q, then to the AHL.
5. Artur Kayumov (W, 5'10", 154 lbs; MHL: 12G+19A in 39GP, MHL PO: 0G+1A in 3GP)
Kayumov is a dynamic winger with a quick set of hands which he isn't shy to use for dribbling at the high speed. Has some good offensive instincts and knows what to do in the offensive zone. Became a leading scorer of the Russia U18 NT, so that's quite telling about his consistency. On the negative side Kayumov definitely needs to become stronger, as he can be pushed off the puck too easily. Also I have some concerns about his offensive sense, as sometimes his decision making was kind of doubtful.
Comparison/Projection: middle-six attacking winger.
At the draft day: Will be picked somewhere in the third or early fourth round, random thought that Dallas might be interested.
After the draft day: there are some unconfirmed rumors about Kayumov possibly moving to the CHL.
6. Dmitry Sokolov (RW/C, 6'1", 205 lbs; OHL: 30G+22A in 68GP)
The most controversial entry in my list: Sokolov's talent has been touted as nothing else than elite for many years now and he has proven that in the 2015 U18 WJC. Sokolov is a natural born offense generator gifted with size, hands and an elite wrister. Loves to have the puck and definitely knows what to do with it, so he needs to have someone, who can deliver it to him. Skating isn't great, but is more or less decent when Sokolov is not overweight. With that being said, Sokolov also is a concern champion: he was criticized for being overweight (went from 222lbs at the start of the season to 208lbs at the end), having an attitude issues, not working hard enough in the defensive department (although improvements have been showed there) and, finally, playing the whole season with an injured right shoulder. While for the latter you can say that, if Sokolov managed to get 30 goals for Sudbury with an injured shoulder and overweight, what can he do when being at the right shape, still it's hard to deny that it (the injury itself and the way he treated it) is a notable concern and there are already too much of those on this square meter.
Comparison/Projection: boom-or-bust at its finest form: can turn out to be the next Tarasenko, but also can become the next Kabanov. Feeling lucky?
At the draft day: with all the concerns, if he falls to the 4-th round, here's the plan: 1. Take him. 2. Run. Organizations in the rebuilding mode or just in a need of an urgent talent injection to the prospect pool could go for a higher pick, also the ones that have the Yzerplan. Russian fans are probably hoping for the Capitals to draft him, so he could play on the same team with Dmitry Orlov.
After the draft day: in Russia they say that you should never even try to leave Omsk, Sokolov did try and now he is stuck with Sudbury for two more years. Next season is about time to start producing accordingly to his level of talent, although Sokolov just underwent a surgery on his shoulder and the recovery will probably take some notable time.
7. Yegor Korshkov (RW, 6'3", 179 lbs; KHL: 6G+6A in 41GP, KHL PO: 0G+0A in 4GP, MHL: 4G+2A in 4GP, MHL PO: 9G+10A in 15GP, U20 WJC: 2G+6A in 7GP; 2 year overager)
Korshkov is a big framed smart winger with an ability to provide a two-way contribution, who had turned some heads in the U20 WJC. His main assets are great creativity, good body usage at fighting for the puck and protecting it and a solid skating for his size. First step and a shot are decent, not very good though. At 6'3" and 179lbs he is a bit lanky, so there is some room for the strength to be added.
Comparison/Projection: middle-six two-way winger.
At the draft day: Korshkov is a two year overager, so it's hard to expect him to be drafted too high, but somewhere in the fourth round seems about right to me. Would actually like the Jets to go for him, as they already have drafted his long time linemate Kraskovsky, also I think that the Canucks might be interested.
After the draft day: Korshkov is contracted to the Yaroslavl Lokomotiv team in the KHL for two more years, it is expected the he will get more playing time next season and will provide a noticeable impact in return.
8. Mikhail Berdin (GK, 6'2", 163 lbs; MHL: 2.07 GAA, .928 SVS% in 22GP)
Berdin is a goalie who plays an athletic and positionally calm game and is pretty solid on the rebound control for such a young goalie. Rather inconsistent and had quite a lot of ups and downs during the season though. One of the 'ups' came at the WJAC where he stopped almost everything, I'm pretty sure that NHL team scouts and management won't forget that.
Comparison/Projection: Berdin's style pretty much reminds me of Ivan Nalimov, in terms of the upside I think the right projection would be a solid and reliable NHL backup goalie. Goalies are usually the ones who need some time to fulfill their potential and Berdin shouldn't be an exception.
At the draft day: should be picked somewhere in the fourth or fifth draft rounds, would be a good option for a team looking for an improvement in the goalie prospect pipeline depth, but wouldn't be liking to spend a high pick for that, someone like New Jersey, Vancouver or even Toronto.
After the draft day: there are so far unconfirmed rumors that Berdin might cross the pond this summer to play in AHL/ECHL.
9. Mikhail Maltsev (C/W, 6'3", 198 lbs; MHL: 11G+12A in 29GP, MHL PO: 0G+2A in 3GP)
Maltsev is a strong two-way center/winger who is not afraid to get his nose dirty along the boards. Most valuable Maltsev's asset is his lower body strength, it allows him to skate well, be successful in fighting for the puck and winning the faceoffs (63.1% at the dot in MHL, that's quite impressive). While the lower body strength is great, Maltsev definitely should put some additional gym work into the upper body. Maltsev has a good vision and is able to make plays for his linemates, but the offensive sense in general and if it will translate to the pro level is being questioned.
Comparison/Projection: middle-six two-way center, probably more of a third line guy than a second line.
At the draft day: fifth round sounds about right to me, maybe Rangers could be interested.
After the draft day: Maltsev is expected to continue his development in SKA team's system, should spend next season between MHL and VHL. Overall he looks more of a longshot to me, so be ready to wait.
10. Yegor Rykov (LHD, 6'2", 205 lbs; KHL: 0G+1A in 10GP, KHL PO: 0G+0A in 2GP, VHL: 0G+2A in 10GP, VHL PO: 1G+0A in 5GP, MHL: 3G+7A in 20GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 2GP, U20 WJC: 1G+2A in 7GP; 1 year overager)
Rykov is a very gifted defender in terms of size, skating, shot, puckmoving and powerplay orchestration, who is still in the process of putting that all together. Wasn't drafted last year, as he was far from being defensively reliable back then, but things have definitely got better. Is a bit error prone, but again I see a significant progress here, although still he is very inconsistent.
Comparison/Projection: Rykov reminds me a bit of Vyacheslav Voynov, long-term ceiling could be a second defensive unit's puckmover.
At the draft day: Rykov could become a 'get it while it's cheap' guy somewhere in the lower fifth round, I think his stock is pretty likely to rise next year. For a guess, let's go with Colorado.
After the draft day: next season Rykov is expected to be the leading defensman for Russia U20 NT at the WJC, in the long term perspective I'd say he will be developing while playing for SKA in the KHL for the next four years or so before thinking about the NHL.
11. Vladimir Bobylyov (W, 6'2", 205 lbs; WHL: 28G+39A in 67GP, WHL PO: 0G+7A in 5GP; 1 year overager)
Bobylyov is a physically gifted high energy and work rate winger with good offensive instincts. At the offseason he successfully went through a hardcore training camp of the Spartak Moscow KHL team and that is a clear sign that at least physically he is ready for pro hockey. No surprise he had a breakthrough year getting to an almost ppg level in the WHL. His offensive package can't be called elite, but his skating and stickhandling are pretty solid for a big guy and the finishing and overall offensive sense are there. Defensive game needs to be polished a bit, since it is critical for players of Bobylyov's type.
Comparison/Projection: high energy two-way power winger who could look good almost anywhere in the lineup.
At the draft day: kid looks totally worth of a sixth round pick to me, maybe even a bit higher. Edmonton got two picks at that region.
After the draft day: one more season in the WHL mostly for developing a better defensive game and then the AHL.
12. Yevgeniy Mityakin (RW/C, 6'3", 194 lbs; KHL: 0G+0A in 16GP, KHL PO: 0G+0A in 1GP, VHL: 2G+1A in 5GP, MHL: 15G+13A in 31GP)
Mityakin is a smart winger with a Malkin-esque frame and a nice slapper. At his young age Mityakin has already three MHL seasons under his belt combined with short KHL and VHL stints and has a reputation of a consistent producer and a smart, hard working and unselfish player. The main concern here is the skating: not like it would be extremely bad, but still quite some work has to be applied there. Also despite being listed at 194lbs, he a long way from properly filling out that frame and that, while providing a good perspective, adds an additional importance to the further development at the skating department.
Comparison/Projection: if Mityakin hits his ceiling he can be a top-six physically dominant winger in the long term perspective, but a lot of 'ifs' here, so he is a pretty risky pick.
At the draft day: with all the risks and low exposure in mind I'd be giving a sixth round for Mityakin without thinking for too long. After all, he is the only first year draft eligible player with some KHL experience this year. Nashville wasn't shy of drafting big Russians recently.
After the draft day: a lot of hopes are that he will be given decent TOI and will start producing at the KHL level playing for the Avtomobilist team next season.
13. Maxim Lazarev (W, 5'10", 170 lbs; QMJHL: 30G+45A in 52GP, QMJHL PO: 5G+10A in 11GP, U20 WJC: 2G+4A in 7GP; 2 year overager)
Lazarev is a dynamic and skilled winger, who got great hands and is creative and extremely competitive. Size related issues are there, as well as defensive play issues. A lot of his points total has to do with a great chemistry with Evgeniy Svechnikov, but at the WJC this chemistry didn't work and still Lazarev posted some solid numbers there.
Comparison/Projection: middle-six attacking winger, poor man's Kucherov.
At the draft day: it's the third year in a row when Lazarev enters my rankings, so the draft chances are not high, still he had a good season and the draft depth is not exactly elite this year, so I think there is a notable chance that he will be picked in the lower rounds. Nashville, Detroit and Chicago are the top candidates that come into my mind.
After the draft day: regardless if Lazarev is drafted or not I expect him to go to AHL next season.
14. Alexandr Mikulovich (LHD, 6'3", 205 lbs; OHL: 0G+7A in 55GP, OHL PO: 2G+4A in 17GP, U20 WJC: 0G+1A in 7GP; 2 year overager)
Mikulovich is a physical stay-at-home defender, who hits hard and finishes his checks and plays a safe and simple game at his own end. Mobility and positioning are a bit under par, but that doesn't look that bad on the small rinks.
Comparison/Projection: third unit defenseman.
At the draft day: Mikulovich had a solid OHL season and could be drafted in the lower rounds. Calgary has some picks there and could use someone like Mikulovich.
After the draft day: AHL
15. Alexandr Yakovenko (LHD, 5'10", 157 lbs; MHL: 2G+6A in 34GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 3GP)
Yakovenko is a defender with a high attacking potential, as he possesses some great skating, stickhandling and passing and is also very creative and able to orchestrate the powerplay. Defensive awareness requires a lot of work investments, as he lacks physicality and looked quite error prone so far.
Comparison/Projection: poor man's smaller Sandis Ozolinsh: ceiling is a second unit puckmoving defender, a long way to go until that though.
At the draft day: Yakovenko didn't have a great season, but defenders with that kind of an attacking skillset don't grow on trees, so I could easily see some team go for that in the latter rounds, Chicago could be a place to go.
After the draft day: probably Yakovenko stays in Russia to play in Traktor team's system in the VHL, although I have a feeling that in this case crossing the pond to get some NA experience wouldn't hurt.
16. Vladislav Sukhachyov (GK, 5'10.5", 181 lbs; MHL: 2.24 GAA, .922 SVS% in 27GP, MHL PO: 4.04 GAA, .871 SVS% in 3GP)
Sukhachyov is an undersized goalie, who plays an extremely mobile and aggressive butterfly style to compensate the lack of size. Sukhachyov's elite leg work and reflexes have allowed him to get the starter role at Russia U18 NT and he didn't make anyone regret that by almost single-handedly winning the bronze at Hlinka's and getting a 42 save shutout win against USNTDP at the Five Nations tournament, not to mention a solid performance all season long. Actually it is quite unusual for me to rank a starting goalie behind the backup goalie, but the reason is pretty obvious — being under 5'11" is a huge risk factor for a goalie. Also Sukhachyov's style has a bit of excessive mobility and his rebound control also needs improvements, but I think those kind of things come with the experience.
Comparison/Projection: I see some playing style similarities with Anton Khudobin, although I hope for an improved version here, as I think Sukhachyov's talent level is right there with the other Russian top talented goalies (Sorokin, Shestyorkin and Samsonov), but again, he has a big challenge of overcoming the size issues to reach that.
At the draft day: I'd definitely risk a bottom round pick for him. Colorado would be an interesting destination, as I'd love to see what Francois Allaire could do with a style like that.
After the draft day: I'd expect Sukhachyov to start next season in MHL and end it in VHL. Also hope for a noticeable performance at U20 level.
17. Andrey Svetlakov (C, 6'0", 201 lbs; KHL: 7G+3A in 30GP, KHL PO: 0G+2A in 8GP, VHL: 1G+1A in 5GP; MHL: 0G+0A in 1GP, U20 WJC: 3G+1A in 4GP; 2 year overager)
Svetlakov is a gritty and hard working two-way center, one of those guys who will really make opponents hate to play against. Not a huge offensive potential here (although he is not useless there), but it is his defensive and dirty area work that is valuable. Svetlakov is only 6'0", but plays much bigger than this size, also he is a good faceoff specialist.
Comparison/Projection: bottom-six defensive center.
At the draft day: Svetlakov has recently signed a three-year contract extension with CSKA, so that will scare off a lot of teams, still I think someone like Vancouver might be willing to spend a 7-th rounder on him.
After the draft day: Svetlakov's career goals are pretty clear for now: to establish himself in CSKA and Russia NT and think about the NHL later.
Honorable mentions
As I've promised, below is a Top17 of HMs, this time in alphabetical order, as it would take me like forever to sort them in a ranking:
Dmitriy Alexeyev (LHD, 6'0", 192 lbs; MHL: 3G+7A in 30GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: while Russia U18 NT had some issues with the defense, Alexeyev looked pretty strong and reliable all season long.
Why he probably won't be drafted: Alexeyev is more of a stay-at-home guy and those are not in the highest demand these days, good performance at U18 WJC could have fixed that, but...
Andrey Altybarmakyan (RW, 5'10", 183 lbs; MHL: 8G+22A in 42GP)
Why he can be drafted: cool name... no, really. Actually Altybarmakyan was looking pretty solid in terms of strength, skating and smarts when he played for the Russia NT.
Why he probably won't be drafted: for reasons well known he missed out on a chance to get the U18 WJC exposure.
Yegor Babenko (RW, 5'9", 157 lbs; WHL: 29G+40A in 67GP, WHL PO: 0G+3A in 5GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: skilled winger with a ppg production in the debut WHL season.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'9", would expect a better skating for his size.
Nikolay Chebykin (W, 6'3", 209 lbs; MHL: 13G+22A in 39GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: physically gifted and hard working kid, finally got a leading role in the MHL and his production went up drastically.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lack of exposure, probably he will have to wait for his chance at the WJC.
Vasiliy Glotov (C/W, 5'11", 159 lbs; MHL: 23G+32A in 42GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: fast skating, smart center with great hands, who has shown a huge production increase in MHL this year.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lack of physicality (which is important for a center) and lack of exposure.
Anatoliy Golyshev (W, 5'8", 179 lbs; KHL: 25G+19A in 56GP, KHL PO: 1G+0A in 6GP; 3 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: 0.79 ppg in KHL this season including 25 goals.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'8", recently extended his KHL contract for 3 years, as no interest from NHL has been spotted.
Ilya Karpukhin (LHD, 6'1", 192 lbs; MHL: 1G+6A in 34GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: made it to the Russia U18 NT as the season progressed and didn't look bad there at the second defensive pairing.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lack of exposure, not exactly a flashy type of player.
Ivan Kosorenkov (W, 6'0", 183 lbs; MHL: 18G+9A in 33GP, MHL PO: 1G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: kid got the shot and is able to get into the position to use it, 27% shooting percentage in MHL is telling.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lacks exposure due to missing the U18 WJC, should be more aggressive in the offensive zone.
Denis Kostin (GK, 6'1", 187 lbs; MHL: 1.81 GAA, .929 SVS% in 17GP, MHL: 3.86 GAA, .821 SVS% in 2GP; 3 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: posting over .92 SVS% in the KHL for a second year in a row.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lack of full-time starting goalie experience.
Nikita Makeyev (LHD, 5'9", 174 lbs; MHL: 6G+11A in 34GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: right-handed defenseman, who excels at skating, puckmoving, smarts and is pretty good at defensive positioning and decision making. Oh, and he is an undisputed captain of the 1998 born Russia NT.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'9"... did someone just said 'Jared Spurgeon'?
Mikhail Meshcheryakov (C, 5'11", 152 lbs; MHL: 11G+12A in 37GP, MHL PO: 1G+0A in 7GP)
Why he can be drafted: a gifted playmaker who was good at the first half of the season and got some exposure in the WJAC.
Why he probably won't be drafted: was kind of underperforming at the second half of the season and was cut from the U18 NT, lacks physicality.
Daniil Miromanov (RW, 6'4", 190 lbs; QMJHL: 22G+20A in 64GP, QMJHL PO: 6G+0A in 5GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: big kid with a solid skating and shot, keen to play defense.
Why he probably won't be drafted: didn't exactly convince about his offensive upside so far, there's some room for improvements at the defensive end too.
Ivan Nikolishin (LW/C, 5'9", 161 lbs; WHL: 31G+51A in 72GP, WHL PO: 0G+2A in 5GP; 2 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: finally started to produce in the WHL.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lacks offensive upside for the top-six, lacks size for the bottom-six.
Kirill Pilipenko (W, 5'11", 185 lbs; KHL: 2G+0A in 4GP, KHL PO: 0G+0A in 1GP, VHL: 12G+8A in 32GP, MHL: 0G+0A in 1GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: actually there is no reason for that, as he pretty much lacked exposure, he is here just because I have a soft spot for his golden hands, will be hoping for a breakout from him next year.
Why he probably won't be drafted: undersized, lack of exposure.
Nikita O. Popugayev (LW, 5'9", 172 lbs; MHL: 4G+2A in 12GP, MHL PO: 1G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: good skater and finisher with a great set of hands, was pretty good at Hlinka's.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'8" (I mean, there is a reason he is called the "small" Popugayev), also missed more than a half of the season with a broken arm.
Igor Shvyryov (C, 6'0", 192 lbs; KHL: 0G+0A in 1GP, MHL: 12G+26A in 44GP, MHL PO: 1G+4A in 8GP)
Why he can be drafted: big, skilled and creative playmaking center.
Why he probably won't be drafted: was rather invisible for the first half of the season, lack of exposure.
Denis Smirnov (LW, 5'9", 183 lbs; USHL: 29G+32A in 60GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: finally started to produce in the USHL.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'9", also it looks like he decided to return to Russia.
And yes, as usual all of the comments, opinions, criticism and even your personal rankings are welcome, don't forget that I'm actually not anything more than a fan with limited viewings, so I can be (and probably am) wrong and definitely I can make mistakes and have some sort of a biases.
As every year I have decided to start a Russian prospects dedicated pre-draft thread, so I hope you will join and contribute to the fun here. This season I could see a lot of people were asking about Russian players like Panarin or Zaitsev questions like 'How could they haven't been drafted at least in the n-th round??' , so I hope that couple of years away my threads might be useful for questions like that.
Every year I'm trying to find an appropriate format for this preview, so this year it is a Top17 (please don't ask me why it is 17, it just happened to be that way this time
) in order of how I see their draft stock value. I also added a short description of my viewing on player's assets and concerns, projection (by that I mean mostly the ceiling, if not stated otherwise), draft stock (including a bit of a guessing game about teams that might be interested, just for the sake of fun) and what to expect after everything is said and done. Those 17 guys are the ones that, in my opinion, have the highest chances to be drafted this year, but to be honest, at the point when it comes to make predictions for the second half of the draft, it is pretty much a guessing game itself and it's not like I would 100% believe my prognosis, so, as a bonus this time I made a very brief round-up of an 'alternate Top17' of honorable mentions — I'm pretty sure someone will get drafted from that list too, at least the probability theory is speaking in favor of that.This year I expect a somewhat similar number of drafted Russian players as last year, with a slight hope that we can hit the 20 player mark this time. In terms of the teams, I'd expect something interesting from Chicago and Vancouver due to their recent Russian player success stories. Also this year there are a lot of talks that the draft age can be increased in the future, so that could provoke some trades including the first round ones, which could be interesting, as guys like Yakupov, Nichushkin, Khokhlachev, Vasilevskiy and even Malkin have been mentioned in various trade rumors. Finally, as it doesn't look that this year the depth would be great, that provides some good chance for the previously passed overagers to get drafted and that's why you can see quite a lot of those guys in my text.
Also I have made a small Frequently Asked Questions section about the 'Russian Factor' and other stuff this time (in the hidden part below), maybe it can be useful for someone:
[collapse=text1]
Why making a draft thread about Russians?
Well, why not? Actually I have done it for a couple of years already and it attracted some interest. Of course, I could place it in Russian part of the HFBoards, but not exactly a lot of posters are hanging out there.
What is that 'Russian factor' thing? What is the state of things about it now?
In general, Russian factor is a phenomenon of obvious Russian high-end talents falling in draft position much lower than they should just because of their nationality and/or league where they play (KHL) - see the classic examples of Tarasenko, Kuznetsov and Kucherov. In my opinion, it is not correct to define Russian factor without looking at its types:
a) Stereotypical "No Russians" type — rare, but still existing case when GM is not willing to get himself an additional headache with selecting Russian players. I won't even bother to oppose that — it is some kind of GM's religion I guess.
b) "CHL only" — more common type, when GMs don't draft KHL based players, as GMs are afraid that they will never come over. For this kind of argument I will give only the numbers: for drafts from 2009 to 2013 (for obvious reasons not counting recent two drafts, as it is just too early to say anything about those) 20 out of 27 players drafted from Russia did come over, that's 74% . On the other hand, for the same draft period 5 out of 15 drafted NA-league based Russians returned to Russia.
c) "KHL is fine, as long as they will come over immediately" — this is more about GMs being willing to control player's development. In my opinion, if you communicate with the player well enough, you will have enough control of it.
d) "Players that are small or have skating concerns have a high risk of running away to KHL " — another interesting type of Russian factor, as it is considered that there are more risks for bolting to KHL for Russian players in case the player is not good enough for a Top 6 role. I think nowadays, with the Top 9 concept actively replacing the Top 6 concept, this type of a Russian factor shouldn't have that much of an impact.
b) "CHL only" — more common type, when GMs don't draft KHL based players, as GMs are afraid that they will never come over. For this kind of argument I will give only the numbers: for drafts from 2009 to 2013 (for obvious reasons not counting recent two drafts, as it is just too early to say anything about those) 20 out of 27 players drafted from Russia did come over, that's 74% . On the other hand, for the same draft period 5 out of 15 drafted NA-league based Russians returned to Russia.
c) "KHL is fine, as long as they will come over immediately" — this is more about GMs being willing to control player's development. In my opinion, if you communicate with the player well enough, you will have enough control of it.
d) "Players that are small or have skating concerns have a high risk of running away to KHL " — another interesting type of Russian factor, as it is considered that there are more risks for bolting to KHL for Russian players in case the player is not good enough for a Top 6 role. I think nowadays, with the Top 9 concept actively replacing the Top 6 concept, this type of a Russian factor shouldn't have that much of an impact.
What's the story about the U18 Russia NT and the meldonium?
Last summer Russian Hockey Federation decided to copy the USNTDP approach and created a separate U18 Russia NT team to compete in MHL this season. The approach was more or less successful and everyone was preparing for the U18 WJC until the meldonium scandal broke out. The issue with meldonium is that it was used widely in Russian sports for something like 30 years as a heart protective supplement and eventually got banned by WADA starting from this year. There was no big deal with stopping of its usage, but the deal became much bigger when it appeared that no one could tell how long it take for meldonium to leave the body completely. This situation resulted with hundreds of sportsmen being disqualified and Russian Hockey Federation decided that they don't want to risk sending U18 guys to the WJC, as a potential ban could cost them careers. Finally WADA introduced the minimum allowed level of meldonium, which resulted in most of disqualified sportsmen being cleared from the doping charges, but the damage has been done and the U17 team (reinforced with Sergachyov, Kuznetsov and Dmitri Zaitsev) had been sent to the WJC instead. Obviously it hit the draft stock of U18 NT players, as a lot of guys there missed out on a chance for a showcase in front of NHL scouts.
How long does it take for a Russian based player to come over?
Usually it is 2-4 years with the current tendency leaning more towards to the latter. Of course, every case is individual. Another thing is how long player rights are retained: according to the CBA it should be 4 years for players drafted at age 18-19 and 2 years for everyone else, but recently it was found out that those terms are defined only for leagues that have a transfer agreement with the NHL, so that means that for players drafted out of the KHL player rights can be held indefinitely.[/collapse]
NB! I would really like to ask you to restrain from the 'CHL Vs. KHL' related discussion, as it is almost a holywar and there is a separate thread for that.
1. Mikhail Sergachyov (LHD, 6'2", 220 lbs; OHL: 17G+40A in 67GP, OHL PO: 2G+3A in 5GP, U18 WJC: 0G+0A in 5GP)
I don't think that there has been left much to say about Sergachyov, so I'll try to keep it short. Sergachyov's biggest strength is that he actually has no real weaknesses in his skillset: smooth skating, strong defensive and intense physical play, supporting the offense, orchestrating the powerplay, applying powerful shots from the blue line — you just name it, although I must say that from my point of view most of these skills are more of a 'very good', not 'elite' level (except I can call his skating pretty elite for a 220lbs guy). A bit concerning is that he looked kind of 'out of gas' at the end of the season, not exactly surprising actually.
Comparison/Projection: Sergachyov's skillset totally reminds me of Vladimir Malakhov, also by that I mean that Sergachyov got more of an all-star caliber ceiling and not Norris caliber.
At the draft day: Sergachyov is in the 'best defender of the draft' discussion, but it is more like a holywar there. At the end of the day I will be very surprised if Sergachyov gets past Montreal and Colorado picks, although I actually will be surprised if he is picked earlier too.
After the draft: if Sergachyov's progress continues at the current pace, he can make the NHL already after he polishes his game a bit next season.
2. German Rubtsov (C/W, 6'1", 190 lbs; MHL: 12G+14A in 26GP, MHL PO: 0G+1A in 3GP)
Rubtsov is a two-way center, who is combining a flashy offensive game with being great and passionate at battling for the puck and winning it. In my opinion Rubtsov's biggest asset is his work-rate — I like to say that he doesn't play a 200ft game, his game is at least 220ft, I just can't remember a game where he didn't gave it all. Offensively he is a good skater, decent finisher, got quick hands and great vision and plays a rather high IQ playmaking game. On the concern side we might want to see a bit more explosiveness in the first step, more consistency (including faceoffs) and less injuries. Although when we are talking about inconsistency, it should be understood 'the Rubtsov way' — even when he is not having a good game, he is still a useful two-way guy, just not dominating. While Rubtsov's size is good for his age, he will still need to gain some more strength and improve the body usage to take his two-way game to the pro level, he is clearly already working on that though.
Comparision/Projection: in my opinion Rubtsov's ceiling is a Russian version of Jonathan Toews, as a bonus, given Rubtsov's competitiveness and work rate, I think his floor is rather high too. Also his hard working and hungry for winning character makes me think of some old-school Soviet greats who worked hard to survive and succeed in the harsh conditions of Tarasov's and Tikhonov's training systems, for example, I have heard that some people are comparing Rubtsov to Andrei Khomutov.
At the draft day: as with a lot of two-way guys it is the offensive projection part that defines the final draft position. Since Rubtsov didn't have a chance to make a good impression at the U18 WJC, it is unlikely that someone reaches very high for him (still, if someone does that, I totally won't blame them), but I also doubt that he falls lower than Top20. Looking at the draft order, Flyers could be in a very good position to get him or maybe Blackhawks will be willing to make a move for an appropriate pick.
After the draft: Rubtsov recently stated that he wants to play in the CHL next season, which is a bit surprising after he has been denying that all season long, so let's see what's happens next. If he goes to the CHL, he is still eligible to play in the AHL season after that; if he stays at Vityaz though, then I think he will be given a middle-six role there.
3. Vitaly Abramov (RW/C, 5'9", 175 lbs; QMJHL:38+55A in 63GP, QMJHL PO: 7G+6A in 10GP)
Abramov's name is a synonym to the word 'quickness', his highlight reel videos should be made with the "Flight of the Bumblebee" as a background theme. His assets include great skating, quick hands and release. Also I'd like to stress that I also see a very high hockey IQ in the way how he is able to see the ice, make a creative play and in his overall decision making ability. Another positive thing is the consistency he showed throughout his debut season in the Q. On the negative side is the size and everything related with that — physicality (although he doesn't look to be too weak on his skates), defensive abilities and potentially tougher transition to the pro level.
Comparison/Projection: I won't be too original — Johnny Gaudreau seems like a good comparison. For those who think that I'm overrating Abramov, I would like to remind that Gaudreau wasn't exactly rated that high at his draft year, while, on the other hand, Abramov was touted as an elite level Russian talent for several years now.
At the draft day: mostly due to his size Abramov probably won't be able to get into the first round, although I would really like the Capitals to draft him with their pick. I mean, just imagine him on Kuznetsov's wing — that Chelyabinsk duo could be making circles around their opponents. Also I could think of Chicago possibly trading up for him, as they winger prospect pool is not exactly great.
After the draft: Abramov will probably stay in QMJHL for the next two years, as it is unlikely that his size will allow him to make NHL roster earlier, although, in my opinion, it would be better to loan him to Europe at some point like San Jose did with Goldobin. And yes, I expect the fans to love this kid.
4. Vladimir Kuznetsov (W, 6'1", 214 lbs; QMJHL: 25G+33A in 68GP, OHL PO: 0G+1A in 5GP, U18 WJC: 0G+3A in 5GP)
Kuznetsov has that skating and size combination that most of the GMs are keen for. Also he is a good finisher, has an understanding of the combinational game and is willing to use his body for the physical play (although he has a room for improvements there). Defensive game is not there so far, also there are issues with consistency.
Comparison/Projection: Kuznetsov looks like a poor man's less north-south version of Guryanov to me. Projection would be a second line offensive winger, more of a complimentary than the offense generating one.
At the draft day: Kuznetsov looks like a stereotypical third-rounder to me, maybe even good enough for a lower half of the second round. Could be a good fit for a team like Florida.
After the draft day: 2 more years in the Q, then to the AHL.
5. Artur Kayumov (W, 5'10", 154 lbs; MHL: 12G+19A in 39GP, MHL PO: 0G+1A in 3GP)
Kayumov is a dynamic winger with a quick set of hands which he isn't shy to use for dribbling at the high speed. Has some good offensive instincts and knows what to do in the offensive zone. Became a leading scorer of the Russia U18 NT, so that's quite telling about his consistency. On the negative side Kayumov definitely needs to become stronger, as he can be pushed off the puck too easily. Also I have some concerns about his offensive sense, as sometimes his decision making was kind of doubtful.
Comparison/Projection: middle-six attacking winger.
At the draft day: Will be picked somewhere in the third or early fourth round, random thought that Dallas might be interested.
After the draft day: there are some unconfirmed rumors about Kayumov possibly moving to the CHL.
6. Dmitry Sokolov (RW/C, 6'1", 205 lbs; OHL: 30G+22A in 68GP)
The most controversial entry in my list: Sokolov's talent has been touted as nothing else than elite for many years now and he has proven that in the 2015 U18 WJC. Sokolov is a natural born offense generator gifted with size, hands and an elite wrister. Loves to have the puck and definitely knows what to do with it, so he needs to have someone, who can deliver it to him. Skating isn't great, but is more or less decent when Sokolov is not overweight. With that being said, Sokolov also is a concern champion: he was criticized for being overweight (went from 222lbs at the start of the season to 208lbs at the end), having an attitude issues, not working hard enough in the defensive department (although improvements have been showed there) and, finally, playing the whole season with an injured right shoulder. While for the latter you can say that, if Sokolov managed to get 30 goals for Sudbury with an injured shoulder and overweight, what can he do when being at the right shape, still it's hard to deny that it (the injury itself and the way he treated it) is a notable concern and there are already too much of those on this square meter.
Comparison/Projection: boom-or-bust at its finest form: can turn out to be the next Tarasenko, but also can become the next Kabanov. Feeling lucky?
At the draft day: with all the concerns, if he falls to the 4-th round, here's the plan: 1. Take him. 2. Run. Organizations in the rebuilding mode or just in a need of an urgent talent injection to the prospect pool could go for a higher pick, also the ones that have the Yzerplan. Russian fans are probably hoping for the Capitals to draft him, so he could play on the same team with Dmitry Orlov.
After the draft day: in Russia they say that you should never even try to leave Omsk, Sokolov did try and now he is stuck with Sudbury for two more years. Next season is about time to start producing accordingly to his level of talent, although Sokolov just underwent a surgery on his shoulder and the recovery will probably take some notable time.
7. Yegor Korshkov (RW, 6'3", 179 lbs; KHL: 6G+6A in 41GP, KHL PO: 0G+0A in 4GP, MHL: 4G+2A in 4GP, MHL PO: 9G+10A in 15GP, U20 WJC: 2G+6A in 7GP; 2 year overager)
Korshkov is a big framed smart winger with an ability to provide a two-way contribution, who had turned some heads in the U20 WJC. His main assets are great creativity, good body usage at fighting for the puck and protecting it and a solid skating for his size. First step and a shot are decent, not very good though. At 6'3" and 179lbs he is a bit lanky, so there is some room for the strength to be added.
Comparison/Projection: middle-six two-way winger.
At the draft day: Korshkov is a two year overager, so it's hard to expect him to be drafted too high, but somewhere in the fourth round seems about right to me. Would actually like the Jets to go for him, as they already have drafted his long time linemate Kraskovsky, also I think that the Canucks might be interested.
After the draft day: Korshkov is contracted to the Yaroslavl Lokomotiv team in the KHL for two more years, it is expected the he will get more playing time next season and will provide a noticeable impact in return.
8. Mikhail Berdin (GK, 6'2", 163 lbs; MHL: 2.07 GAA, .928 SVS% in 22GP)
Berdin is a goalie who plays an athletic and positionally calm game and is pretty solid on the rebound control for such a young goalie. Rather inconsistent and had quite a lot of ups and downs during the season though. One of the 'ups' came at the WJAC where he stopped almost everything, I'm pretty sure that NHL team scouts and management won't forget that.
Comparison/Projection: Berdin's style pretty much reminds me of Ivan Nalimov, in terms of the upside I think the right projection would be a solid and reliable NHL backup goalie. Goalies are usually the ones who need some time to fulfill their potential and Berdin shouldn't be an exception.
At the draft day: should be picked somewhere in the fourth or fifth draft rounds, would be a good option for a team looking for an improvement in the goalie prospect pipeline depth, but wouldn't be liking to spend a high pick for that, someone like New Jersey, Vancouver or even Toronto.
After the draft day: there are so far unconfirmed rumors that Berdin might cross the pond this summer to play in AHL/ECHL.
9. Mikhail Maltsev (C/W, 6'3", 198 lbs; MHL: 11G+12A in 29GP, MHL PO: 0G+2A in 3GP)
Maltsev is a strong two-way center/winger who is not afraid to get his nose dirty along the boards. Most valuable Maltsev's asset is his lower body strength, it allows him to skate well, be successful in fighting for the puck and winning the faceoffs (63.1% at the dot in MHL, that's quite impressive). While the lower body strength is great, Maltsev definitely should put some additional gym work into the upper body. Maltsev has a good vision and is able to make plays for his linemates, but the offensive sense in general and if it will translate to the pro level is being questioned.
Comparison/Projection: middle-six two-way center, probably more of a third line guy than a second line.
At the draft day: fifth round sounds about right to me, maybe Rangers could be interested.
After the draft day: Maltsev is expected to continue his development in SKA team's system, should spend next season between MHL and VHL. Overall he looks more of a longshot to me, so be ready to wait.
10. Yegor Rykov (LHD, 6'2", 205 lbs; KHL: 0G+1A in 10GP, KHL PO: 0G+0A in 2GP, VHL: 0G+2A in 10GP, VHL PO: 1G+0A in 5GP, MHL: 3G+7A in 20GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 2GP, U20 WJC: 1G+2A in 7GP; 1 year overager)
Rykov is a very gifted defender in terms of size, skating, shot, puckmoving and powerplay orchestration, who is still in the process of putting that all together. Wasn't drafted last year, as he was far from being defensively reliable back then, but things have definitely got better. Is a bit error prone, but again I see a significant progress here, although still he is very inconsistent.
Comparison/Projection: Rykov reminds me a bit of Vyacheslav Voynov, long-term ceiling could be a second defensive unit's puckmover.
At the draft day: Rykov could become a 'get it while it's cheap' guy somewhere in the lower fifth round, I think his stock is pretty likely to rise next year. For a guess, let's go with Colorado.
After the draft day: next season Rykov is expected to be the leading defensman for Russia U20 NT at the WJC, in the long term perspective I'd say he will be developing while playing for SKA in the KHL for the next four years or so before thinking about the NHL.
11. Vladimir Bobylyov (W, 6'2", 205 lbs; WHL: 28G+39A in 67GP, WHL PO: 0G+7A in 5GP; 1 year overager)
Bobylyov is a physically gifted high energy and work rate winger with good offensive instincts. At the offseason he successfully went through a hardcore training camp of the Spartak Moscow KHL team and that is a clear sign that at least physically he is ready for pro hockey. No surprise he had a breakthrough year getting to an almost ppg level in the WHL. His offensive package can't be called elite, but his skating and stickhandling are pretty solid for a big guy and the finishing and overall offensive sense are there. Defensive game needs to be polished a bit, since it is critical for players of Bobylyov's type.
Comparison/Projection: high energy two-way power winger who could look good almost anywhere in the lineup.
At the draft day: kid looks totally worth of a sixth round pick to me, maybe even a bit higher. Edmonton got two picks at that region.
After the draft day: one more season in the WHL mostly for developing a better defensive game and then the AHL.
12. Yevgeniy Mityakin (RW/C, 6'3", 194 lbs; KHL: 0G+0A in 16GP, KHL PO: 0G+0A in 1GP, VHL: 2G+1A in 5GP, MHL: 15G+13A in 31GP)
Mityakin is a smart winger with a Malkin-esque frame and a nice slapper. At his young age Mityakin has already three MHL seasons under his belt combined with short KHL and VHL stints and has a reputation of a consistent producer and a smart, hard working and unselfish player. The main concern here is the skating: not like it would be extremely bad, but still quite some work has to be applied there. Also despite being listed at 194lbs, he a long way from properly filling out that frame and that, while providing a good perspective, adds an additional importance to the further development at the skating department.
Comparison/Projection: if Mityakin hits his ceiling he can be a top-six physically dominant winger in the long term perspective, but a lot of 'ifs' here, so he is a pretty risky pick.
At the draft day: with all the risks and low exposure in mind I'd be giving a sixth round for Mityakin without thinking for too long. After all, he is the only first year draft eligible player with some KHL experience this year. Nashville wasn't shy of drafting big Russians recently.
After the draft day: a lot of hopes are that he will be given decent TOI and will start producing at the KHL level playing for the Avtomobilist team next season.
13. Maxim Lazarev (W, 5'10", 170 lbs; QMJHL: 30G+45A in 52GP, QMJHL PO: 5G+10A in 11GP, U20 WJC: 2G+4A in 7GP; 2 year overager)
Lazarev is a dynamic and skilled winger, who got great hands and is creative and extremely competitive. Size related issues are there, as well as defensive play issues. A lot of his points total has to do with a great chemistry with Evgeniy Svechnikov, but at the WJC this chemistry didn't work and still Lazarev posted some solid numbers there.
Comparison/Projection: middle-six attacking winger, poor man's Kucherov.
At the draft day: it's the third year in a row when Lazarev enters my rankings, so the draft chances are not high, still he had a good season and the draft depth is not exactly elite this year, so I think there is a notable chance that he will be picked in the lower rounds. Nashville, Detroit and Chicago are the top candidates that come into my mind.
After the draft day: regardless if Lazarev is drafted or not I expect him to go to AHL next season.
14. Alexandr Mikulovich (LHD, 6'3", 205 lbs; OHL: 0G+7A in 55GP, OHL PO: 2G+4A in 17GP, U20 WJC: 0G+1A in 7GP; 2 year overager)
Mikulovich is a physical stay-at-home defender, who hits hard and finishes his checks and plays a safe and simple game at his own end. Mobility and positioning are a bit under par, but that doesn't look that bad on the small rinks.
Comparison/Projection: third unit defenseman.
At the draft day: Mikulovich had a solid OHL season and could be drafted in the lower rounds. Calgary has some picks there and could use someone like Mikulovich.
After the draft day: AHL
15. Alexandr Yakovenko (LHD, 5'10", 157 lbs; MHL: 2G+6A in 34GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 3GP)
Yakovenko is a defender with a high attacking potential, as he possesses some great skating, stickhandling and passing and is also very creative and able to orchestrate the powerplay. Defensive awareness requires a lot of work investments, as he lacks physicality and looked quite error prone so far.
Comparison/Projection: poor man's smaller Sandis Ozolinsh: ceiling is a second unit puckmoving defender, a long way to go until that though.
At the draft day: Yakovenko didn't have a great season, but defenders with that kind of an attacking skillset don't grow on trees, so I could easily see some team go for that in the latter rounds, Chicago could be a place to go.
After the draft day: probably Yakovenko stays in Russia to play in Traktor team's system in the VHL, although I have a feeling that in this case crossing the pond to get some NA experience wouldn't hurt.
16. Vladislav Sukhachyov (GK, 5'10.5", 181 lbs; MHL: 2.24 GAA, .922 SVS% in 27GP, MHL PO: 4.04 GAA, .871 SVS% in 3GP)
Sukhachyov is an undersized goalie, who plays an extremely mobile and aggressive butterfly style to compensate the lack of size. Sukhachyov's elite leg work and reflexes have allowed him to get the starter role at Russia U18 NT and he didn't make anyone regret that by almost single-handedly winning the bronze at Hlinka's and getting a 42 save shutout win against USNTDP at the Five Nations tournament, not to mention a solid performance all season long. Actually it is quite unusual for me to rank a starting goalie behind the backup goalie, but the reason is pretty obvious — being under 5'11" is a huge risk factor for a goalie. Also Sukhachyov's style has a bit of excessive mobility and his rebound control also needs improvements, but I think those kind of things come with the experience.
Comparison/Projection: I see some playing style similarities with Anton Khudobin, although I hope for an improved version here, as I think Sukhachyov's talent level is right there with the other Russian top talented goalies (Sorokin, Shestyorkin and Samsonov), but again, he has a big challenge of overcoming the size issues to reach that.
At the draft day: I'd definitely risk a bottom round pick for him. Colorado would be an interesting destination, as I'd love to see what Francois Allaire could do with a style like that.
After the draft day: I'd expect Sukhachyov to start next season in MHL and end it in VHL. Also hope for a noticeable performance at U20 level.
17. Andrey Svetlakov (C, 6'0", 201 lbs; KHL: 7G+3A in 30GP, KHL PO: 0G+2A in 8GP, VHL: 1G+1A in 5GP; MHL: 0G+0A in 1GP, U20 WJC: 3G+1A in 4GP; 2 year overager)
Svetlakov is a gritty and hard working two-way center, one of those guys who will really make opponents hate to play against. Not a huge offensive potential here (although he is not useless there), but it is his defensive and dirty area work that is valuable. Svetlakov is only 6'0", but plays much bigger than this size, also he is a good faceoff specialist.
Comparison/Projection: bottom-six defensive center.
At the draft day: Svetlakov has recently signed a three-year contract extension with CSKA, so that will scare off a lot of teams, still I think someone like Vancouver might be willing to spend a 7-th rounder on him.
After the draft day: Svetlakov's career goals are pretty clear for now: to establish himself in CSKA and Russia NT and think about the NHL later.
Honorable mentions
As I've promised, below is a Top17 of HMs, this time in alphabetical order, as it would take me like forever to sort them in a ranking:
Dmitriy Alexeyev (LHD, 6'0", 192 lbs; MHL: 3G+7A in 30GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: while Russia U18 NT had some issues with the defense, Alexeyev looked pretty strong and reliable all season long.
Why he probably won't be drafted: Alexeyev is more of a stay-at-home guy and those are not in the highest demand these days, good performance at U18 WJC could have fixed that, but...
Andrey Altybarmakyan (RW, 5'10", 183 lbs; MHL: 8G+22A in 42GP)
Why he can be drafted: cool name... no, really.
Actually Altybarmakyan was looking pretty solid in terms of strength, skating and smarts when he played for the Russia NT.Why he probably won't be drafted: for reasons well known he missed out on a chance to get the U18 WJC exposure.
Yegor Babenko (RW, 5'9", 157 lbs; WHL: 29G+40A in 67GP, WHL PO: 0G+3A in 5GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: skilled winger with a ppg production in the debut WHL season.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'9", would expect a better skating for his size.
Nikolay Chebykin (W, 6'3", 209 lbs; MHL: 13G+22A in 39GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: physically gifted and hard working kid, finally got a leading role in the MHL and his production went up drastically.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lack of exposure, probably he will have to wait for his chance at the WJC.
Vasiliy Glotov (C/W, 5'11", 159 lbs; MHL: 23G+32A in 42GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: fast skating, smart center with great hands, who has shown a huge production increase in MHL this year.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lack of physicality (which is important for a center) and lack of exposure.
Anatoliy Golyshev (W, 5'8", 179 lbs; KHL: 25G+19A in 56GP, KHL PO: 1G+0A in 6GP; 3 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: 0.79 ppg in KHL this season including 25 goals.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'8", recently extended his KHL contract for 3 years, as no interest from NHL has been spotted.
Ilya Karpukhin (LHD, 6'1", 192 lbs; MHL: 1G+6A in 34GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: made it to the Russia U18 NT as the season progressed and didn't look bad there at the second defensive pairing.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lack of exposure, not exactly a flashy type of player.
Ivan Kosorenkov (W, 6'0", 183 lbs; MHL: 18G+9A in 33GP, MHL PO: 1G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: kid got the shot and is able to get into the position to use it, 27% shooting percentage in MHL is telling.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lacks exposure due to missing the U18 WJC, should be more aggressive in the offensive zone.
Denis Kostin (GK, 6'1", 187 lbs; MHL: 1.81 GAA, .929 SVS% in 17GP, MHL: 3.86 GAA, .821 SVS% in 2GP; 3 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: posting over .92 SVS% in the KHL for a second year in a row.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lack of full-time starting goalie experience.
Nikita Makeyev (LHD, 5'9", 174 lbs; MHL: 6G+11A in 34GP, MHL PO: 0G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: right-handed defenseman, who excels at skating, puckmoving, smarts and is pretty good at defensive positioning and decision making. Oh, and he is an undisputed captain of the 1998 born Russia NT.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'9"... did someone just said 'Jared Spurgeon'?
Mikhail Meshcheryakov (C, 5'11", 152 lbs; MHL: 11G+12A in 37GP, MHL PO: 1G+0A in 7GP)
Why he can be drafted: a gifted playmaker who was good at the first half of the season and got some exposure in the WJAC.
Why he probably won't be drafted: was kind of underperforming at the second half of the season and was cut from the U18 NT, lacks physicality.
Daniil Miromanov (RW, 6'4", 190 lbs; QMJHL: 22G+20A in 64GP, QMJHL PO: 6G+0A in 5GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: big kid with a solid skating and shot, keen to play defense.
Why he probably won't be drafted: didn't exactly convince about his offensive upside so far, there's some room for improvements at the defensive end too.
Ivan Nikolishin (LW/C, 5'9", 161 lbs; WHL: 31G+51A in 72GP, WHL PO: 0G+2A in 5GP; 2 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: finally started to produce in the WHL.
Why he probably won't be drafted: lacks offensive upside for the top-six, lacks size for the bottom-six.
Kirill Pilipenko (W, 5'11", 185 lbs; KHL: 2G+0A in 4GP, KHL PO: 0G+0A in 1GP, VHL: 12G+8A in 32GP, MHL: 0G+0A in 1GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: actually there is no reason for that, as he pretty much lacked exposure, he is here just because I have a soft spot for his golden hands, will be hoping for a breakout from him next year.
Why he probably won't be drafted: undersized, lack of exposure.
Nikita O. Popugayev (LW, 5'9", 172 lbs; MHL: 4G+2A in 12GP, MHL PO: 1G+0A in 3GP)
Why he can be drafted: good skater and finisher with a great set of hands, was pretty good at Hlinka's.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'8" (I mean, there is a reason he is called the "small" Popugayev), also missed more than a half of the season with a broken arm.
Igor Shvyryov (C, 6'0", 192 lbs; KHL: 0G+0A in 1GP, MHL: 12G+26A in 44GP, MHL PO: 1G+4A in 8GP)
Why he can be drafted: big, skilled and creative playmaking center.
Why he probably won't be drafted: was rather invisible for the first half of the season, lack of exposure.
Denis Smirnov (LW, 5'9", 183 lbs; USHL: 29G+32A in 60GP; 1 year overager)
Why he can be drafted: finally started to produce in the USHL.
Why he probably won't be drafted: 5'9", also it looks like he decided to return to Russia.
And yes, as usual all of the comments, opinions, criticism and even your personal rankings are welcome, don't forget that I'm actually not anything more than a fan with limited viewings, so I can be (and probably am) wrong and definitely I can make mistakes and have some sort of a biases.
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