Prospect Info: 2016 Marlies and Prospects Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

Marmoset

Registered User
Apr 4, 2015
712
362
GTA
A guy who is a defensive specialist as a teenager with tons of room for growth in his skating, transition game, offense and filling out his body, with hockey IQ like he has...... has limited potential?

Hmm...

Absolutely. In the vast majority of cases, a forward referred to as a "defensive specialist" is another way of saying he has little offence. Obviously the two are not mutually exclusive, but that is what it usually means. Otherwise he would be called a "two-way forward" or some similar term.

If I look at his stats with the Marlies - he has produced little offence this season.

He has the potential to be a great defensive player - a third or fourth liner who can kill penalties, help to shutdown offensive players on the other team, win faceoffs. All of that is valuable, but a bottom-6 player is not the potential I'm looking for in a first-round pick. If his offence does not improve, he is likely a 4th liner rather than a 3rd liner, and you can pick up those guys in a trade for much less than a first round pick. Whereas you will need to cough up that price for a 20-25 goal scorer, often regardless of that player's defensive ability.

Gauthier having limited potential doesn't mean he stinks, far from it - it means his game appears to have some significant restrictions on how good it is likely to become. Players with little offence at lower levels rarely develop it at a higher level. It can happen, but it's very uncommon. I hope Gauthier bucks the trend but there has been little evidence of it so far.
 

ErnieLeafs

Registered User
Apr 7, 2009
12,212
2,437
I just believe that as his skating and coordination inevitably improve, he may find a little offense. Adding strength will help too.
 

deletethis

Registered User
Mar 17, 2015
7,910
2,486
Toronto
Yep, if Gauthier were doing poorly in the eyes of the Leafs' management, Dubas would be completely candid about it and not put a positive spin on it.
 

Tigerarmy

Registered User
Aug 1, 2011
173
0
Absolutely. In the vast majority of cases, a forward referred to as a "defensive specialist" is another way of saying he has little offence. Obviously the two are not mutually exclusive, but that is what it usually means. Otherwise he would be called a "two-way forward" or some similar term.

If I look at his stats with the Marlies - he has produced little offence this season.

He has the potential to be a great defensive player - a third or fourth liner who can kill penalties, help to shutdown offensive players on the other team, win faceoffs. All of that is valuable, but a bottom-6 player is not the potential I'm looking for in a first-round pick. If his offence does not improve, he is likely a 4th liner rather than a 3rd liner, and you can pick up those guys in a trade for much less than a first round pick. Whereas you will need to cough up that price for a 20-25 goal scorer, often regardless of that player's defensive ability.

Gauthier having limited potential doesn't mean he stinks, far from it - it means his game appears to have some significant restrictions on how good it is likely to become. Players with little offence at lower levels rarely develop it at a higher level. It can happen, but it's very uncommon. I hope Gauthier bucks the trend but there has been little evidence of it so far.

Many 1st rounders don't carve out an nhl career so if he becomes a capable 3rd line Center who produces 10-15 goals a year and shuts down the teams top lines and makes Babcock happy like he does Keefe I'll be happy. The development staff is working with him every day and he wants to get better so I'm confident he'll improve his game year after year
 

saltming

Fan Addict
Oct 6, 2015
19,057
7,096
Other
Yep, if Gauthier were doing poorly in the eyes of the Leafs' management, Dubas would be completely candid about it and not put a positive spin on it.

Pretty much the majority of the posters here that watch the marlies game agree that the goats got game. Yes he needs to improve his scoring touch, but he is still young. It's easier to increase skill sets such as skating shooting hand eye cordination than it is to teach defensive hockey IQ.
At worst he's a 4th line pk specialist at best a 2nd line 2 way centre. If he lands between then that is still a success story for a 21st overall pick.
21st pick is a crap shoot unless it's an insanely deep draft. Go back 20 years and see how many 1st liners were drafted 21st overall. I'm willing to bet it's under 25%
 

The Thin White Duke

Registered User
Aug 11, 2009
3,909
1
His offensive game is a non-issue really. He just has to be fast enough to keep up, shoot and crash the net. You don't need to be Patrick Kane to be an effective forward on the cycle, especially when you're 6'6 and know how to use it. Worse players have put up 40+ points just by being a good cog in the machine.
 

GBLeaf

Registered User
Feb 13, 2014
1,726
651
England, GB.
Pretty much the majority of the posters here that watch the marlies game agree that the goats got game. Yes he needs to improve his scoring touch, but he is still young. It's easier to increase skill sets such as skating shooting hand eye cordination than it is to teach defensive hockey IQ.
At worst he's a 4th line pk specialist at best a 2nd line 2 way centre. If he lands between then that is still a success story for a 21st overall pick.
21st pick is a crap shoot unless it's an insanely deep draft. Go back 20 years and see how many 1st liners were drafted 21st overall. I'm willing to bet it's under 25%

2014 - Robby Fabbri - 53g 24p
2012 - Mark Jankowski - 0g 0p
2011 - Stefan Noesen - 1g 0p
2010 - Riley Sheahan - 175g 73p
2009 - John Moore - 280g 52p
2008 - Anton Gustafsson - 0g 0p
2007 - Riley Nash - 221g 82p
2006 - Bobby Sanguinetti - 45g 6p
2005 - Tuuka Rask - 309g
2004 - Wojtek Wolski - 451g 267p


So there's 10 rounds... 6 players who are/were serviceable NHL'ers. With the potential for two more in Jankowski and Noesen. But not so many offensively threatening players in that list. (although there is a fantastic goalie in there and I admit to knowing nothing of Wolski) Athlough it's early days, Fabbri looks like he could be the best non-goalie from that list.
 

67Cup

Registered User
Sep 16, 2005
3,907
723
2014 - Robby Fabbri - 53g 24p
2012 - Mark Jankowski - 0g 0p
2011 - Stefan Noesen - 1g 0p
2010 - Riley Sheahan - 175g 73p
2009 - John Moore - 280g 52p
2008 - Anton Gustafsson - 0g 0p
2007 - Riley Nash - 221g 82p
2006 - Bobby Sanguinetti - 45g 6p
2005 - Tuuka Rask - 309g
2004 - Wojtek Wolski - 451g 267p


So there's 10 rounds... 6 players who are/were serviceable NHL'ers. With the potential for two more in Jankowski and Noesen. But not so many offensively threatening players in that list. (although there is a fantastic goalie in there and I admit to knowing nothing of Wolski) Athlough it's early days, Fabbri looks like he could be the best non-goalie from that list.

Interesting, and still painful, that the Leafs made the best selection of that lot, by far.
 

67Cup

Registered User
Sep 16, 2005
3,907
723
A question for the rules gurus. The Draft Analyst, which I think is a very useful site, states that Detroit has the option to claim a 3rd round pick in the year of their choice, 2016-18, as compensation for Babcock and NJ has the same option of choosing a 3rd rounder in the same years for Lou Lam.

I know the Leafs owe the picks, but I thought the option was the other way around. That is, that the Leafs hold the option as to what years and which 3rd round picks they will supply. It just has to be a 3rd in the 2016-18 time span. Of course, if Detroit and NJ hold the option, an obvious problem could arise!

As an aside, if the Leafs get 3 rd rounders at the trade deadline, these might go as compensation for the signings also, as far as I can see.
 

HellasLEAF

'93 to Infinity
Sep 14, 2006
15,437
1,878
Teams that the Goat plays for have a way of winning don't they?

Not a coincidence he makes his teams better. He is an important player with a needed function imo.
 

Morguee

Registered User
Jan 22, 2010
3,002
184
A question for the rules gurus. The Draft Analyst, which I think is a very useful site, states that Detroit has the option to claim a 3rd round pick in the year of their choice, 2016-18, as compensation for Babcock and NJ has the same option of choosing a 3rd rounder in the same years for Lou Lam.

I know the Leafs owe the picks, but I thought the option was the other way around. That is, that the Leafs hold the option as to what years and which 3rd round picks they will supply. It just has to be a 3rd in the 2016-18 time span. Of course, if Detroit and NJ hold the option, an obvious problem could arise!

As an aside, if the Leafs get 3 rd rounders at the trade deadline, these might go as compensation for the signings also, as far as I can see.

It IS the Leafs choice and it can be any 3rd rounder(in the following 3 years) so they can trade for a lower 3rd round and give them that one.
 

Ovate

Registered User
Dec 17, 2014
4,105
56
Toronto
Having a 6'5" center like Gauthier who can play on the 1st PK unit is very valuable, especially to a team like the Leafs where our centers are likely to be more offensively talented, smaller, skilled players.

I wouldn't be surprised if he started playing the PP too. Win the faceoff, crash the net, provide a screen, and knock in rebounds. Could have on the Marlies next season as some of our current PP players graduate.
 

RyanOhReally

Registered User
Jan 21, 2015
2,368
1
Georgetown, ON
A question for the rules gurus. The Draft Analyst, which I think is a very useful site, states that Detroit has the option to claim a 3rd round pick in the year of their choice, 2016-18, as compensation for Babcock and NJ has the same option of choosing a 3rd rounder in the same years for Lou Lam.

I know the Leafs owe the picks, but I thought the option was the other way around. That is, that the Leafs hold the option as to what years and which 3rd round picks they will supply. It just has to be a 3rd in the 2016-18 time span. Of course, if Detroit and NJ hold the option, an obvious problem could arise!

As an aside, if the Leafs get 3 rd rounders at the trade deadline, these might go as compensation for the signings also, as far as I can see.

We pick which year and it has to be our picks, not acquired ones. Similar to RFA signing compensation.

Lou will hold out until there is a rule change in the compensation for management. He held out for giving up a first with the Kovalchuck thing and he ended up with a 30th overall pick - instead of having to give up the pick in general.

Friedman has sayed that the NHL is looking to change the rule within the next year, so I doubt we give up a pick at all, to be honest.
 

saltming

Fan Addict
Oct 6, 2015
19,057
7,096
Other
2014 - Robby Fabbri - 53g 24p
2012 - Mark Jankowski - 0g 0p
2011 - Stefan Noesen - 1g 0p
2010 - Riley Sheahan - 175g 73p
2009 - John Moore - 280g 52p
2008 - Anton Gustafsson - 0g 0p
2007 - Riley Nash - 221g 82p
2006 - Bobby Sanguinetti - 45g 6p
2005 - Tuuka Rask - 309g
2004 - Wojtek Wolski - 451g 267p


So there's 10 rounds... 6 players who are/were serviceable NHL'ers. With the potential for two more in Jankowski and Noesen. But not so many offensively threatening players in that list. (although there is a fantastic goalie in there and I admit to knowing nothing of Wolski) Athlough it's early days, Fabbri looks like he could be the best non-goalie from that list.

Ya fabbri is looking good and thanks for posting that. I was too lazy to do the leg work.
 

Morguee

Registered User
Jan 22, 2010
3,002
184
We pick which year and it has to be our picks, not acquired ones. Similar to RFA signing compensation.

Lou will hold out until there is a rule change in the compensation for management. He held out for giving up a first with the Kovalchuck thing and he ended up with a 30th overall pick - instead of having to give up the pick in general.

Friedman has sayed that the NHL is looking to change the rule within the next year, so I doubt we give up a pick at all, to be honest.

The rule was changed effective Jan 1, 2016.

It does not effect compensation picks already owing.

It can be any 3rd round pick in the following 3 years.

I am still looking for the exact wording but from General Fanager(not the end all but)

"Detroit will receive either 2015 TOR 3, 2016 TOR 3 or 2017 TOR 3 (or an alternate 3rd round pick in any of these years) at the discretion of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Partial Outcome: Toronto has reportedly informed Detroit that the pick will not be 2015 TOR 3"
 

Leaf19

Registered User
Dec 25, 2013
637
32
The rule was changed effective Jan 1, 2016.

It does not effect compensation picks already owing.

It can be any 3rd round pick in the following 3 years.

I am still looking for the exact wording but from General Fanager(not the end all but)

"Detroit will receive either 2015 TOR 3, 2016 TOR 3 or 2017 TOR 3 (or an alternate 3rd round pick in any of these years) at the discretion of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Partial Outcome: Toronto has reportedly informed Detroit that the pick will not be 2015 TOR 3"

This looks correct. Rule has been changed but any previous compensation is still owed. It can be any 3rd rounder (acquired or your own) for the next 3 years. For example, we can acquire picks 89 and 90 and give those as compensation. Maybe we trade up from an early 4th into late 3rd by giving up a 7th/prospect dump?
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
41,993
12,410
This looks correct. Rule has been changed but any previous compensation is still owed. It can be any 3rd rounder (acquired or your own) for the next 3 years. For example, we can acquire picks 89 and 90 and give those as compensation. Maybe we trade up from an early 4th into late 3rd by giving up a 7th/prospect dump?

The league should add compensation picks to the team who paid that farce.

We should be granted pick 91 and 91 if only to pay off that BS. It should be like that for any team who owes a pick, or just give them to the teams owed.
 

7even

Offered and lost
Feb 1, 2012
18,764
14,579
North Carolina
Pretty much the majority of the posters here that watch the marlies game agree that the goats got game. Yes he needs to improve his scoring touch, but he is still young. It's easier to increase skill sets such as skating shooting hand eye cordination than it is to teach defensive hockey IQ.
At worst he's a 4th line pk specialist at best a 2nd line 2 way centre. If he lands between then that is still a success story for a 21st overall pick.
21st pick is a crap shoot unless it's an insanely deep draft. Go back 20 years and see how many 1st liners were drafted 21st overall. I'm willing to bet it's under 25%

I kinda hard disagree. Players who don't score at lower leagues at younger ages overwhelmingly don't score at the NHL level, whereas a good coach and a dedication to their system can cover an otherwise poor defensive player.
 

Duffman955

Registered User
Mar 4, 2010
14,719
4,154
How is gauthier going to be anything more than a 4th liner? He has no vision, no shot and hands of stone. He tops out as a faster steckel.
 

SEER

Registered User
Sep 21, 2015
5,466
48
SEER you beautiful human being. Thank you!

I don't know how "beautfiul" I am anymore, at this age... LOL! Thanks, LM...

Thanks Seer. You do good work and it's appreciated. You deserve your own legends row thread for all the excellent vids.

If we had a video section in here, I would do what I did on the old Official Leafs site, that closed without any explanation.. and still has "WILL BE RIGHT BACK!" posted.. :amazed:

Thanks, Trapper...!

You should write an email to MLSE with all your vids asking for a job in marketing or something

I did.., in late August... They never offered me anything.. Wrote directly to Shanny and Dubas... and spoke with both of their personal secretaries..

Many many thanks. Your work is appreciated.

Many thanks.., right back.., Saltming..!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad