Prospect Info: 2016 Draft | Trading Down From #4 Less Likely Now According to Stauffer

[Sempiternal]

There's about 10-13 players is pick before chychrun

And I would bet that Chychrun will be better than most of them in 5 years.

 

[SDig14]

Chychrun's draft year reminds me a bit of Couturier.

Both guys were ranked in the top few picks going into the year, neither really did anything to deserve dropping in the rankings yet they did and both have been considered pretty safe picks but without the high ceiling as some other picks.

I have a tought time getting a read on Chycrun at all. Seems he has all the tools physically, but people are questioning his decision making with the puck.

In the end, it looks like scouts were right about Couturier. Very effective player but the upside simply is not there.

Are they right again about Chychrun or will he be a steal for a team picking 9-14?

 

[belair]

Honestly I think the gap between the 1st, 2nd and even 3rd wave of defensemen in this draft aren't as far apart as you'd like them to be. You've got a guy like Chychrun who could potentially fall into the teens. A mid-range guy like Bean who could climb into the top 10 and guys like Johansen, Hajek and Dineen who could slip into the late first.

There just isn't a logical argument that could support selecting a defenseman at number four when all sources show this draft is very top heavy in terms of high-end forward talent.

This maybe one of those drafts where you see a few late bloomer guys in the mid-to-late rounds that stand out like a Keith or a Weber from previous drafts.

 

[Stud Muffin]

And I would bet that Chychrun will be better than most of them in 5 years.

Unless he magically gets some hockey iq, I'll bet against it.

 

[Raab]

hey guys, Leafs fan

not sure sure what you guys are thinking but i've been thinking that oilers should keep 4 and draft PLD

not worth reaching on any of the d and they really don't need another young D man. they need an established one or two

PLD is a big two way forward. which is actually something they need and would compliment the other prospect. PLD and Drai would be the starts of a beast line

Doubt Chia takes Dubois. He hasn't taken a player out of the QMJHL since 2009 in Jordan Caron IIRC.

 

[Raab]

I think the draft boards for all 30 teams this year after the top 3 (maybe even top 2 only) will look significantly different this year.

I don't see a ton of separation between the guys in the 4-10 range.

I have preferences (Sergachev, Tkachuk, Dubois or Juolevi) and guys I'm not super excited about (Brown, Chychrun, Nylander), but they are all very close IMO.

This! I have guys I like and don't like but you can make a case for any of them at 4. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that a guy like Dubois falls to 7 or 8 in this year. Really reminds me of the first 8 picks of the 2011 draft. We might see guys taken at say 6-7-8 who could easily be better then whoever we take at 4.

Here's my list of the top 10:

Matthews, Laine/Puljujarvi (Glad I'm not Winnipeg, both great players and don't want to pick the wrong one), Sergachev, Tkachuk, Nylander, Chychrun, Dubois, Brown, Juolevi. I could see guys like Fabbro, Jost, Keller all sneaking into the top 10 as well and pushing guys down.

 

[Sempiternal]

Dmen seem to drop close to the draft for flashy forwards. Does BPA always have to mean at their age of 17/18 or can it mean best player in a few years? Or most valuable player in a few years.

I think 6 months ago we would be happy with Chychrun, but Tkachuk's memorial cup run on a stacked Knights squad has clouded judgement.

There's been a number of players at the WJHC that looked amazing in a short tournament but never worked out at the NHL level.

Anyways, I wouldn't be mad with Tkachuk, but I would still consider Chychrun based on other factors like work ethic, attitude and insider feedback that the Oilers scouting staff would obtain.

 

[lakai17]

Here's my list of the top 10:

Matthews, Laine/Puljujarvi (Glad I'm not Winnipeg, both great players and don't want to pick the wrong one), Sergachev, Tkachuk, Nylander, Chychrun, Dubois, Brown, Juolevi. I could see guys like Fabbro, Jost, Keller all sneaking into the top 10 as well and pushing guys down.

Okay Raab.

Now we all know you enjoy Sergachev and I understand why, I am partially on the wagon myself or will not complain at all to select him. Great instincts, skating, offense and plays a well rounded game.

Many are sleeping on Juolevi here and there really is no Fabbro hype probably due to the league he is coming out of.
I believe Fabbro should be ranked a lot higher myself. A definite steal past #10

Now I ask you what your opinion is on Juolevi and Fabbro?

 

[CdnFan]

And I would bet that Chychrun will be better than most of them in 5 years.

I agree.....I think Chychrun has all the physical tools, is bright, and his brain will catch up to the higher speed of the game in a couple of years at which point he will be a very good defenseman.

Kind of torn between he and Sergachev as the #1 defenseman, whilst not being a big fan of Juolevi.

 

[SDig14]

One of the weaknesses common to all of Fabbro, Juolevi and Sergachev from my limited viewings is none of them are physical in their own end and not very aggressive in front of the net.

That being said, all seem very smart.

The thing that is nice with Sergachev is down low I think he will be pushed off the puck a lot less considering he is about 40 pounds heavier than Juolevi.

Sergachev also interviewed well by stating he knows he needs to be more aggressive in his own end and be physical against skill players and use his size.

 

[Soundwave]

Dmen seem to drop close to the draft for flashy forwards. Does BPA always have to mean at their age of 17/18 or can it mean best player in a few years? Or most valuable player in a few years.

I think 6 months ago we would be happy with Chychrun, but Tkachuk's memorial cup run on a stacked Knights squad has clouded judgement.

There's been a number of players at the WJHC that looked amazing in a short tournament but never worked out at the NHL level.

Anyways, I wouldn't be mad with Tkachuk, but I would still consider Chychrun based on other factors like work ethic, attitude and insider feedback that the Oilers scouting staff would obtain.

The hockey I.Q. stuff honestly scares me about Chychrun though. We have a hard enough time developing players as is, if they don't have hockey I.Q. ... it's virtually impossible here it seems.

 

[suddeninterest]

The concerns with Fabbro are quality of comp, although he looked pretty good at u18s. He would be a great pick at say 12-16.

Juolevi just doesn't look to have the dynamic offensive qualities to be a #1. Great first pass and zone exit but behind Serg in the Ozone. I think he will be a better Tanev or Hjalmarsson. Which is an excellent player and he would be a great pick for Buf/Ari/Mtl to pair with OEL/Risto/Subban. If the Oil are drafting a Dman though I'd rather them take someone with a better shot and offense. I know stats aren't everything but Juolevi really should have put up more points on that London team. If he put up 55 or something like that he would be undisputed.

 

[Tarus]

Doubt Chia takes Dubois. He hasn't taken a player out of the QMJHL since 2009 in Jordan Caron IIRC.

I don't think you can put much stock in what players Chia picked while in Boston. Different scouting staffs, different team, and it's pretty much a different era for the junior leagues. I really doubt there is much bias against that specific league, especially considering that the QMJHL haven't been producing all that many high end prospects over the last 5 - 7 years.

 

[Panda Bear]

The hockey I.Q. stuff honestly scares me about Chychrun though. We have a hard enough time developing players as is, if they don't have hockey I.Q. ... it's virtually impossible here it seems.

Chychrun's hockey IQ issues all seem to be trying to force plays, whether it be rushing, passing or jumping into play. You know, all those things you do when you're trying to impress people and show them that you're a game breaker and a worth a top three pick like you were originally slated to be.

I am confident that once he knows he's valued by a team and no longer has to jockey for draft position, he'll suddenly look a lot better with his decision-making.

The team that drafts him will be getting the defenceman with the highest floor and one of the highest ceilings.

 

[doulos]

Brace yourselves folks.

Oilers draft Tkachuk and every "expert" declares it a total disaster and mismanagement by the team since it's not a blueliner.

 

[Tarus]

Brace yourselves folks.

Oilers draft Tkachuk and every "expert" declares it a total disaster and mismanagement by the team since it's not a blueliner.

Yep, that's probably what's going to happen

I'm almost looking forward to it at this point

 

[ChefTO]

Trade down

Trade 4th to Ari for 7th and 20th
Draft Sergachev
Trade 20th + Yak + 3rd rd to Min for 15th and Dumba or Brodin
Draft McLeod

Gets us the best d in the draft plus in my mind one of the top 3 centers in the draft! Both closer to being M
NHL ready...

 

[Panda Bear]

As for Couturier not having a great ceiling? Pffft.

39 points in 63 games prorates to 50 points, sure, he pales compared to Schedule.

But then you look at his zone starts, how he matches up against other teams' top lines, his ability to drive possession and amazing shot differentials... Jesus Christ. He's the Canadian heir to Bergeron.

In a redraft knowing what we do now, he goes Top Five. And that's with Gaudreau, Saad and Kucherov in the mix.

 

[Raab]

Okay Raab.

Now we all know you enjoy Sergachev and I understand why, I am partially on the wagon myself or will not complain at all to select him. Great instincts, skating, offense and plays a well rounded game.

Many are sleeping on Juolevi here and there really is no Fabbro hype probably due to the league he is coming out of.
I believe Fabbro should be ranked a lot higher myself. A definite steal past #10

Now I ask you what your opinion is on Juolevi and Fabbro?

The problem I have with Fabbro is as you stated, his quality of competition. I also bump him down a bit because of his stature, and playing with Jost. When I watch that Penticton team it's clear to me that Jost is the best player on it. In contrast to that when you watch Windsor it's pretty easy to see Sergachev is one of if nit their best players. He's for sure ahead of Brown.

Some other issues I have with Fabbro are that he isn't great along the boards and I question how he'll handle the big forwards in the NHL. Personally I'd have a hard time picking between him and Jake Bean. Would have liked to see what he could have done against WHL competition. Ditto to his teammate Jost. I think if Jost played in the WHL he could have significantly upped his value. IMO he looks like RNH's did in junior.

As for Juolevi he reminds me of another Finnish defenceman Teppo Numminen. Can really move the puck, uses quick decision making skills to get it out before the other team can even set up. I'd have no problem with us taking him at 4, he's just not high on my own personal list because of his upside. I think he's probably a very good #2 dman who will have a long career.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Honestly I think the gap between the 1st, 2nd and even 3rd wave of defensemen in this draft aren't as far apart as you'd like them to be. You've got a guy like Chychrun who could potentially fall into the teens. A mid-range guy like Bean who could climb into the top 10 and guys like Johansen, Hajek and Dineen who could slip into the late first.

There just isn't a logical argument that could support selecting a defenseman at number four when all sources show this draft is very top heavy in terms of high-end forward talent.

This maybe one of those drafts where you see a few late bloomer guys in the mid-to-late rounds that stand out like a Keith or a Weber from previous drafts.

I agree with you.

What I wouldn't mind seeing is trying to trade up from 32 to grab a Fabbro/Bean/McAvoy.

Not sure how high Yak and 32 would get us.

 

[Beerfish]

If we get back to the tried and true trade NHL players for picks at this draft I'm about done with these clowns.

We need help NOW, not another 4 years from now when a guy we drafted at 25 is finally ready to play.

Hell Hall, RNH, Eberle and the boys will be 30 years old, McDavid will be off his ELC and we will still be eagerly looking at getting an extra draft pick.

This is especially true of #4. If we trade that pick for only other picks I'll blow a gasket.

 

[McDoused]

In a couple years it is very likely that one of Chychrun, Juolevi or Sergachev will increase their value and become a top pairing guy. The media will ask "how could Edmonton have passed on this guy when they were so desperate for defence?" And in all honesty will be right. Sometimes you need to take a risk and grab the guy you think will make the biggest difference for your team in the foreseeable future.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Brace yourselves folks.

Oilers draft Tkachuk and every "expert" declares it a total disaster and mismanagement by the team since it's not a blueliner.

The thought of drafting Tkachuk, signing Lucic, and trading Hall for some number 2 defenceman like Hamonic and some spare parts... Uuuugh...

 

[s7ark]

In a couple years it is very likely that one of Chychrun, Juolevi or Sergachev will increase their value and become a top pairing guy. The media will ask "how could Edmonton have passed on this guy when they were so desperate for defence?" And in all honesty will be right. Sometimes you need to take a risk and grab the guy you think will make the biggest difference for your team in the foreseeable future.

Or they could bust or top out as 4/5 guys and Tkachuk/Puljujärvi become dominant physical wingers and the media asks why the Oilers tried to play smartest guy in the room.

No scout is claiming any of the top D have top pairing potential. If they did they would be higher ranked. If any of the top D from this draft become a 1/2 guy, it will be a surprise.

That doesn't mean none of them could. Few thought OEL was a 1D before his draft. But the scouts have to be damn sure if they are going to pass on Tkachuk/Puljujärvi for a D widely regarded as a less promising prospect at the time of the draft.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Tkachuk probably makes the mose sense as a piece to build with mcd.

Won't be upset if that's the pick.

I think Dubois helps us more next year but you're adding a potential franchise center to a team that has 3 of those.

The D are intriguing. Love me some serg but the OBC is strong and may push chychrun.