2016-17 roster

[Aavco Cup]

Not last season. They even ran with 12 forwards for quite a stretch, & when Lowry was sent down the team briefly had 11 forwards...was that when they had Pardy play forward?

Last season was 8 D and 13 F for tge most part but it was unusual. 7 D and 14 F is more typical.

 

[csk]

Last season was 8 D and 13 F for tge most part but it was unusual. 7 D and 14 F is more typical.

yeah, but after we lost as many D as we did in 2014-15, I think the org has (and will continue to) leaned towards 8D

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Ah yes depth! How you doin?

Those forwards are not eligible for waivers, rather they are waiver exempt. I assume you just made a mistake. However Lowry does in fact need waivers.

Yes I meant exempt.

As for Lowry I guess it's as simple as 3 pro seasons if you sign at 20?

Armia is in the same boat, having played 4 pro seasons after signing at 19?

Roster is less flexible as I thought!

 

[jetsfaneh]

Yes I meant exempt.

As for Lowry I guess it's as simple as 3 pro seasons if you sign at 20?

Armia is in the same boat, having played 4 pro seasons after signing at 19?

Roster is less flexible as I thought!

Yup. It's mostly one spot fought for assuming Connor and Laine start right away. Petan, Copp, Dano and Lemieux have their work cut out for them. I give the edge to Dano. And don't mind having guys getting some seasoning in the AHL. Especially if we don't resign some upcoming UFAs. I wouldn't be trading guys so fast. Especially with expansion drafts a comin. Nice to have options and grooming guys. And the competition should bring out the best of these guys. I hate people saying lets trade guys. We just filled the cupboard!

 

[PhilJets]

If we will just pick on talent base line up

Perrault little Wheeler
Laine Schiefel Ehler
Connor Petan dano
Lowry Burmistrov Armia

Enstrom byfuglien
MORRISSEY Trouba
Chyrun (Chairot) MYers

HELLYBUYCK
Comrie

 

[jetsfaneh]

If we will just pick on talent base line up

Perrault little Wheeler
Laine Schiefel Ehler
Connor Petan dano
Lowry Burmistrov Armia

Enstrom byfuglien
MORRISSEY Trouba
Chyrun (Chairot) MYers

HELLYBUYCK
Comrie

A goal scoring challenged team. And Stafford is left off?

 

[Aavco Cup]

yeah, but after we lost as many D as we did in 2014-15, I think the org has (and will continue to) leaned towards 8D

I agree they will have 9 or 10 D available. I just disagree they will keep 8D on the NHL roster continuously like they did last year.

 

[voyageur]

As you mention, it took expired contracts to Jokinen, Antropov & Slater to remove them from occupying the C2-C4 positions. Why would this year be any different? Maurice is just as guilty as Noel was for playing veterans over prospects.

I doubt anyone would disagree that Stuart serves no role other than as a bottom pairing defencemen. Although some would prefer him gone, most acknowledge he's capable in this limited role. It's been his use beyond that role that have had many shaking their heads. Even if Morrissey plays lights out in camp, Enstrom & his NMC stand in his way of the first pairing, Trouba now occupies the second pairing on his offside, bringing us back to the blood & guts assistant captain who has played through nearly every injury he's faced.

I would think if Morrissey makes the team, he'd assume Trouba's position shifting him back down to 3rd pairing with Stuart & placing Postma back in the press box during his final year before becoming a UFA. After his vocal frustration in media interviews last year, I wouldn't begin to think he'd consider resigning with the Jets should that scenario play out.

Again I agree that Laine & Connor are virtually NHL ready, but that doesn't mean that even that best of prospects can't use some AHL seasoning, particularly if it's at the expense of other prospects that have little left to gain at the AHL level like Armia or Dano. I also love the fact that we have three strong offensive prospects at each forward position, Conner (LW), Petan (C), & in all likelihood Laine (RW) that could very easily one day be the #1 line in Winnipeg. Allowing these three to begin this path together as the Moose #1 line could pan out quite nicely for all involved.

What is interesting is that once the late season injuries forced Maurice into playing the prospects, the team began rolling 4 lines, the penalty minutes substantially declined, likely the biggest reason the Jets began competing in every game down to the buzzer & the reason the tank failed.

If anything perhaps these final 10-15 games awoke something in both the coaching staff & managements head that our youthful core may be far more ready than they were given credit for. With Laine & Connor added to this mix I'll admit it's quite possible that although Thorburn MAY see press box duty, every Jets 2.0 decision made up until today suggest otherwise.

As long as Thorburn can kill penalties effectively and throw out some big hits when called upon he has a spot on the roster.

If Chevy stands pat I see the roster being a continuation of last year's finish to start.

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perrault-Little-Laine
Dano-Burmistrov-Stafford
And a rotation between Lowry, Copp, Thorburn and Armia for the 4th line.

Laine is going to get sheltered at times, and given that Little is our most reliable faceoff guy, and a strong defensive player, with some finish, I would not be at all surprised if a veteran takes his minutes late in periods and in tight games.

I still say Lipon makes the team out of camp. He was a final cut last year, and probably could have beaten out Petan except there was too much hype about skill trumping grit, and our 4th line looked terrible for most of the early parts of the season, with no chemistry.

I also think you could see either Connor or Lemieux displacing Dano.

I'd kind of like to see

Connor-Petan-Kosmachuk as the 1st line on the Moose. Thinking long term, that would be my 3rd line to start 2017. Possibly a 3rd line by the halfway point of the season if the projected 3rd line does not produce.

That would push De Leo down to 2C with the Moose, between Lemieux and Lodge.

Tanev-Albert-Peluso as the 3rd

And Blomqvist-Olsen-Brassard as the 4th.

That's good depth, which is our saving grace, because we still don't have the talent of other teams in the division but the gap is closer.


And special teams will probably be the factor that decides who makes the team.

For PK i think we will see

Lowry-Thorburn/Armia (i'd like to see Lipon in this spot at times)
Little-Wheeler
and then Burmi/Armia/Copp

PP1
Ehlers
Scheifele
Wheeler
Perrault
Buff

PP2
Dano
Little
Stafford
Laine
Myers/Trouba

For D we won at the end of the season with a d-corps of
Chiarot-Buff
Stuart-Trouba
Melchiori-Postma

If you assume that Maurice is going to go back to Enstrom-Myers, then the d is pretty much set for next year as is, with Postma as #7, Melchiori probably starts with the Moose. There is no way i see Postma supplanting Chiarot, I would like to see Benny and Buff as the 1st unit PK. That would be a big change in our approach as Stu-Trouba have bern the 1st unit for 3 years without great success.

I think Morrissey is the x-factor. He can change the dynamic. If he supplants Stuart, the reverberation is that we carry 8 d, and one of our forwards is moved or demoted out of camp.

I don't think Morrissey-Trouba is the answer though, but they do deserve a look.

Enstrom-Trouba gives Trouba the ability to jump in the rush, because of Enstrom's good 1st pass, these two should in theory be very good as zone clearance with their mobility. Having two strong defensive pairings i think would make Myers a much more dangerous offensive player, given less responsibility. I would hope that he would be a bigger leader out there with the young Morrissey, replicating the success of the Morrissey-Bowey pairing that nearly won a Memorial Cup.

Take Stuart out of the equation and i think the parts become more interchangeable too.

 

[voyageur]

As you mention, it took expired contracts to Jokinen, Antropov & Slater to remove them from occupying the C2-C4 positions. Why would this year be any different? Maurice is just as guilty as Noel was for playing veterans over prospects.

I doubt anyone would disagree that Stuart serves no role other than as a bottom pairing defencemen. Although some would prefer him gone, most acknowledge he's capable in this limited role. It's been his use beyond that role that have had many shaking their heads. Even if Morrissey plays lights out in camp, Enstrom & his NMC stand in his way of the first pairing, Trouba now occupies the second pairing on his offside, bringing us back to the blood & guts assistant captain who has played through nearly every injury he's faced.

I would think if Morrissey makes the team, he'd assume Trouba's position shifting him back down to 3rd pairing with Stuart & placing Postma back in the press box during his final year before becoming a UFA. After his vocal frustration in media interviews last year, I wouldn't begin to think he'd consider resigning with the Jets should that scenario play out.

Again I agree that Laine & Connor are virtually NHL ready, but that doesn't mean that even that best of prospects can't use some AHL seasoning, particularly if it's at the expense of other prospects that have little left to gain at the AHL level like Armia or Dano. I also love the fact that we have three strong offensive prospects at each forward position, Conner (LW), Petan (C), & in all likelihood Laine (RW) that could very easily one day be the #1 line in Winnipeg. Allowing these three to begin this path together as the Moose #1 line could pan out quite nicely for all involved.

What is interesting is that once the late season injuries forced Maurice into playing the prospects, the team began rolling 4 lines, the penalty minutes substantially declined, likely the biggest reason the Jets began competing in every game down to the buzzer & the reason the tank failed.

If anything perhaps these final 10-15 games awoke something in both the coaching staff & managements head that our youthful core may be far more ready than they were given credit for. With Laine & Connor added to this mix I'll admit it's quite possible that although Thorburn MAY see press box duty, every Jets 2.0 decision made up until today suggest otherwise.

As long as Thorburn can kill penalties effectively and throw out some big hits when called upon he has a spot on the roster.

If Chevy stands pat I see the roster being a continuation of last year's finish to start.

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perrault-Little-Laine
Dano-Burmistrov-Stafford
And a rotation between Lowry, Copp, Thorburn and Armia for the 4th line.

Laine is going to get sheltered at times, and given that Little is our most reliable faceoff guy, and a strong defensive player, with some finish, I would not be at all surprised if a veteran takes his minutes late in periods and in tight games.

I still say Lipon makes the team out of camp. He was a final cut last year, and probably could have beaten out Petan except there was too much hype about skill trumping grit, and our 4th line looked terrible for most of the early parts of the season, with no chemistry.

I'd kind of like to see

Connor-Petan-Kosmachuk as the 1st line on the Moose. Thinking long term, that would be my 3rd line to start 2017. Possibly a 3rd line by the halfway point of the season if the projected 3rd line does not produce.

That would push De Leo down to 2C with the Moose, between Lemieux and Lodge.

Tanev-Albert-Peluso as the 3rd

And Blomqvist-Olsen-Brassard as the 4th.

That's good depth, which is our saving grace, because we still don't have the talent of other teams in the division but the gap is closer.


And special teams will probably be the factor that decides who makes the team.

For PK i think we will see

Lowry-Thorburn/Armia (i'd like to see Lipon in this spot at times)
Little-Wheeler
and then Burmi/Armia/Copp

PP1
Ehlers
Scheifele
Wheeler
Perrault
Buff

PP2
Dano
Little
Stafford
Laine
Myers/Trouba

For D we won at the end of the season with a d-corps of
Chiarot-Buff
Stuart-Trouba
Melchiori-Postma

If you assume that Maurice is going to go back to Enstrom-Myers, then the d is pretty much set for next year as is, with Postma as #7, Melchiori probably starts with the Moose. There is no way i see Postma supplanting Chiarot, I would like to see Benny and Buff as the 1st unit PK. That would be a big change in our approach as Stu-Trouba have bern the 1st unit for 3 years without great success.

I think Morrissey is the x-factor. He can change the dynamic. If he supplants Stuart, the reverberation is that we carry 8 d, and one of our forwards is moved or demoted out of camp.

I don't think Morrissey-Trouba is the answer though, but they do deserve a look.

Enstrom-Trouba gives Trouba the ability to jump in the rush, because of Enstrom's good 1st pass, these two should in theory be very good as zone clearance with their mobility. Having two strong defensive pairings i think would make Myers a much more dangerous offensive player, given less responsibility. I would hope that he would be a bigger leader out there with the young Morrissey, replicating the success of the Morrissey-Bowey pairing that nearly won a Memorial Cup.

Take Stuart out of the equation and i think the parts become more interchangeable too.

 

[truck]

As long as Thorburn can kill penalties effectively and throw out some big hits when called upon he has a spot on the roster.

Thorburn does neither of these things.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Thorburn does neither of these things.

Thorburn is good at growing a beard

 

[lomiller1]

I'm leaning towards 14F 7D 2G
hopefully they won't leave their younger players in the press box this year as they seem to have committed to playing a younger lineup. I don't expect Peluso to be sent down, so he probably ends up as the 14th forward.

Barring injury or trade I think Connor starts in the NHL and either Copp or Dano starts the season int the AHL. So do Petan and Morrissey, and I bet they sign Hutch and try to sneak him through wavers. I think the need to keep Stafford to meet the expansion salary exposure minimum.

That leaves something like this:

Laine - Scheifele - Wheeler
Lowery - Little - Ehlers
Connor - Perreault - Stafford
Armia - Burmi - Dano

Enstrom - Myers
Trouba - Buff
Chiarot - Postma

Stuart, Thorburn, Peluso

Hellebuyck
Pav

One other possibility is a Myers trade. It looks like the originally wanted Myers because they didn't expect to resign Buff, but since that has changed they may be willing to move him if they think Morrissey is ready, put Trouba with Enstrom, and Buff with Morrissey

 

[voyageur]

Thorburn does neither of these things.

I thought he was pretty good on the PK. With Lowry. Like his well earned goal of the year. Those two have been pretty good as a combo. If you want to play physical in a physical division/conference these are my two go to guys. Keeping them on the 4th though assures that they don't play above their roles. That's where we finally have the ability to groom our prospects, with playing time and respinsibility.


The beard would be a beaut if we could make a prolonged playoff run.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

As you mention, it took expired contracts to Jokinen, Antropov & Slater to remove them from occupying the C2-C4 positions. Why would this year be any different? Maurice is just as guilty as Noel was for playing veterans over prospects.

I doubt anyone would disagree that Stuart serves no role other than as a bottom pairing defencemen. Although some would prefer him gone, most acknowledge he's capable in this limited role. It's been his use beyond that role that have had many shaking their heads. Even if Morrissey plays lights out in camp, Enstrom & his NMC stand in his way of the first pairing, Trouba now occupies the second pairing on his offside, bringing us back to the blood & guts assistant captain who has played through nearly every injury he's faced.

I would think if Morrissey makes the team, he'd assume Trouba's position shifting him back down to 3rd pairing with Stuart & placing Postma back in the press box during his final year before becoming a UFA. After his vocal frustration in media interviews last year, I wouldn't begin to think he'd consider resigning with the Jets should that scenario play out.

Again I agree that Laine & Connor are virtually NHL ready, but that doesn't mean that even that best of prospects can't use some AHL seasoning, particularly if it's at the expense of other prospects that have little left to gain at the AHL level like Armia or Dano. I also love the fact that we have three strong offensive prospects at each forward position, Conner (LW), Petan (C), & in all likelihood Laine (RW) that could very easily one day be the #1 line in Winnipeg. Allowing these three to begin this path together as the Moose #1 line could pan out quite nicely for all involved.

What is interesting is that once the late season injuries forced Maurice into playing the prospects, the team began rolling 4 lines, the penalty minutes substantially declined, likely the biggest reason the Jets began competing in every game down to the buzzer & the reason the tank failed.

If anything perhaps these final 10-15 games awoke something in both the coaching staff & managements head that our youthful core may be far more ready than they were given credit for. With Laine & Connor added to this mix I'll admit it's quite possible that Thorburn MAY see press box duty, although every Jets 2.0 decision made up until today suggests otherwise.

Anything is possible. I think Stu isn't generally regarded as even adequate on the bottom pair anymore. Thor maybe is just adequate on the 4th line but unfortunately he seems to suck the life out of better players.

I think you and several others see too much significance in Mau's past use of these player. He was cutting back on Stu's TOI last year. He has had better alternatives in the past but not better by such a clear margin nor so many alternatives before. The late season last year let him actually see for himself what the alternatives were.

We will have to wait and see but continuing to use some of these players has gone past being a joke or a quiky coach. We have to think about who sits if these guys play. Are we going to expose Armia to waivers so we can play Thor?

Edit: I don't see Morrissey in the top 4 to start. I don't see him ever pushing Trouba down to bottom pair. With or without Morrissey Postma could be back in the PB and Stu play 3RD. I really hope not but PMo's usage of Postma has been totally inexplicable to date. I was really surprised when he re-signed with us. I expected him to go anywhere else to get a chance to play. So it is possible.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Last season was 8 D and 13 F for tge most part but it was unusual. 7 D and 14 F is more typical.

I think if Morrissey makes the team we have 8 D again. If not then it will be 7. The number of F can be flexible because of the ease of callups.

 

[garret9]

A goal scoring challenged team. And Stafford is left off?

I won't be surprised if Stafford is closer to 15-17 next season than 21.
I expect something like 15-17 and 30-34 points over 82 game pace next season... maybe lower.


As an aside, I remember after Myers and Stafford had 51 and 60 points per 82 game paces with the Jets in their first partial season I suggested they would both be regressed quite lower and most people were highly skeptical of my projections.

I projected a mean likelihood point production of 34 point pace for Myers and 38 for Stafford. They ended up having 30 and 40 so looks like I overestimated (when combined; 72 total predicted and 70 scored) not under like many said here...

 

[Puckatron 3000]

I projected a mean likelihood point production of 34 point pace for Myers and 38 for Stafford. They ended up having 30 and 36 so looks like I overestimated not under like many said here...

The Jets website lists Stafford at 38 points over 78 games, which would put him at a 40 points per 82 game pace. So you were still impressively close, but slightly underestimated him.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I won't be surprised if Stafford is closer to 15-17 next season than 21.
I expect something like 15-17 and 30-34 points over 82 game pace next season... maybe lower.


As an aside, I remember after Myers and Stafford had 51 and 60 points per 82 game paces with the Jets in their first partial season I suggested they would both be regressed quite lower and most people were highly skeptical of my projections.

I projected a mean likelihood point production of 34 point pace for Myers and 38 for Stafford. They ended up having 30 and 36 so looks like I overestimated not under like many said here...

don't believe it. proof? was there a poll?

 

[garret9]

The Jets website lists Stafford at 38 points over 78 games, which would put him at a 40 points per 82 game pace. So you were still impressively close, but slightly underestimated him.

Ah sorry, slip.

I wrote down the wrong number here when I had a few numbers up I was fact checking. That was my own copy and paste error sorry haha.

Another random interesting note: Stafford doubled his career short handed point production.

 

[garret9]

don't believe it. proof? was there a poll?

I remember having to argue my point quite significantly here and I didn't have any backing me up.

Many were saying stuff like on-ice sh% differences were stable due to Jets being better than Sabres.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I remember having to argue my point quite significantly here and I didn't have any backing me up.

Many were saying stuff like on-ice sh% differences were stable due to Jets being better than Sabres.

There were many here including myself who did not want Stafford re-signed though. Sorry for not having your back

 

[Whileee]

I won't be surprised if Stafford is closer to 15-17 next season than 21.
I expect something like 15-17 and 30-34 points over 82 game pace next season... maybe lower.


As an aside, I remember after Myers and Stafford had 51 and 60 points per 82 game paces with the Jets in their first partial season I suggested they would both be regressed quite lower and most people were highly skeptical of my projections.

I projected a mean likelihood point production of 34 point pace for Myers and 38 for Stafford. They ended up having 30 and 40 so looks like I overestimated (when combined; 72 total predicted and 70 scored) not under like many said here...

Interesting analysis. Almost bang on. Did Myers PP time reduce his production last season? Seems he had less PP time after the Jets went to a 1 point man system.

 

[garret9]

Interesting analysis. Almost bang on. Did Myers PP time reduce his production last season? Seems he had less PP time after the Jets went to a 1 point man system.

It did, and for good measure. There's a lot of evidence 4F1D systems tend to far outperform 3F2D and also Myers shouldn't be on the power play for the Jets (Matt Cane and Arik Parnass have been doing amazing work on power play analytics).

That said, he lost a total 46 mins of PP time when looking at TOI/GP differences per the two seasons.
If I use his 1.3 point production per 60 PP mins as a Jet, that's 1 point due to less PP TOI.
If I use his 2.4 point production per 60 PP mins in the first season only, that's 2 less PP TOI points.

So that would just put me right on the money with Myers+Stafford combined instead of a bit of over estimation.

 

[Whileee]

Tyler Myers, points/60:

5v5:

2012-13: 0.50
2013-14: 0.60
2014-15: 0.81
2015-16: 1.01

5v4 (PP):

2012-13: 2.09
2013-14: 2.89
2014-15: 1.55
2015-16: 0.73

Looks like Myers improved his 5v5 p/60 but took a big hit in the 5v4 due to an anemic PP last season. A quick calculation would suggest that if Myers' PP production was similar to his previous seasons he would have added another 4-5 points last season.

Did your modeling predict a jump in 5v5 production and a dip in 5v4 production for Myers last season?

View attachment 90037

 

[Whileee]

It did, and for good measure. There's a lot of evidence 4F1D systems tend to far outperform 3F2D and also Myers shouldn't be on the power play for the Jets (Matt Cane and Arik Parnass have been doing amazing work on power play analytics).

That said, he lost a total 46 mins of PP time when looking at TOI/GP differences per the two seasons.
If I use his 1.3 point production per 60 PP mins as a Jet, that's 1 point due to less PP TOI.
If I use his 2.4 point production per 60 PP mins in the first season only, that's 2 less PP TOI points.

So that would just put me right on the money with Myers+Stafford combined instead of a bit of over estimation.

See above... I hadn't realized that Myers' PP points/60 had taken such a big hit last season. Combined with his somewhat lower 5v4 TOI, that hit his overall points total somewhat.