2016-17 roster

[garret9]

Tyler Myers, points/60:

5v5:

2012-13: 0.50
2013-14: 0.60
2014-15: 0.81
2015-16: 1.01

5v4 (PP):

2012-13: 2.09
2013-14: 2.89
2014-15: 1.55
2015-16: 0.73

Looks like Myers improved his 5v5 p/60 but took a big hit in the 5v4 due to an anemic PP last season. A quick calculation would suggest that if Myers' PP production was similar to his previous seasons he would have added another 4-5 points last season.

Did your modeling predict a jump in 5v5 production and a dip in 5v4 production for Myers last season?

View attachment 90037

I used PP not 5v4.
Model didn't look at P/60, but rather shot rates both in relative impact and share of on ice shots. Then normalized for individual and linemate shooting percentage, plus IAP.

To me, I hope Myers is taken off permanently due to this (rel TmFF/60):
2015-16: -10.3
2014-15: -0.21 (note relTM numbers "messy" with trade)
2013-14: +4.32
2012-13: -5.00
2011-12: -8.33
2010-11: -5.66
2009-10: -4.29

 

[voyageur]

I won't be surprised if Stafford is closer to 15-17 next season than 21.
I expect something like 15-17 and 30-34 points over 82 game pace next season... maybe lower.


As an aside, I remember after Myers and Stafford had 51 and 60 points per 82 game paces with the cpuldn't eir first partial season I suggested they would both be regressed quite lower and most people were highly skeptical of my projections.

I projected a mean likelihood point production of 34 point pace for Myers and 38 for Stafford. They ended up having 30 and 40 so looks like I overestimated (when combined; 72 total predicted and 70 scored) not under like many said here...

I do remember you saying that, and it becoming true. But i think you have to look at the bigger picture too. Stafford joined the Jets and was instantly placed on a line with Scheifele and Wheeler. Those two are going to make you a better producing winger. They saved Ehlers season, who couldn't score before the move. Stafford started the year with Lowry-Burmi. Poorly. Burmi seems to have killed the production of nearly every player he played with, minus perhaps Perrault. Stafford was also given significant PK duties in Frolik's and Slater's absence, which i think was a mismanagement of his minutes. With less PK time and proper usage (offensive zone.starts) and a contract year, i would expect him to pot 20 again (especially if our 3rd line featured Petan and Connor instead of Burmi-Dano). The other significant regression was our PP output. We have nowhere to go but up, which i.why i hope Vincent goes to the Moose, and we get a very cerebral coach in his place (Ducky or Oates). Myers was a juggernaut when he first arrived here. Can't understate how important he was in our playoff run. I think he struggled with Enstrom in d zone coverage, and having a team that lacked the ability to win faceoffs and also lacked in chemistry probably hurt his production. That's why i would like to see him with the steadier, more physical Morrissey. As Myers was very good with Buff, as good as Trouba, which says something about the variables involved. When i look at our lineup i still see Myers as the QBS for the 2nd PP. Trouba is a better passer, but not a better shot from the point. Myers can use.his size to change angles and just get shots to the net,. Enstrom should not be in the discussion, and Postma hasn't run a NHL PP with success. He will still struggle to make the lineup with the quality of RHD in front of him, all of whom can contribute to both special teams.

 

[Whileee]

I used PP not 5v4.
Model didn't look at P/60, but rather shot rates both in relative impact and share of on ice shots. Then normalized for individual and linemate shooting percentage, plus IAP.

To me, I hope Myers is taken off permanently due to this (rel TmFF/60):
2015-16: -10.3
2014-15: -0.21 (not relTM numbers "messy" with trade)
2013-14: +4.32
2012-13: -5.00
2011-12: -8.33
2010-11: -5.66
2009-10: -4.29

I completely agree with replacing Myers on the PP. I think Trouba is a much better option until proven otherwise. I think this is another "blind spot" that Maurice has in his player deployment. I wonder if his drop in PP production might be related to his ineptitude on the point, which is accentuated in a 4f1d alignment.

 

[Whileee]

I do remember you saying that, and it becoming true. But i think you have to look at the bigger picture too. Stafford joined the Jets and was instantly placed on a line with Scheifele and Wheeler. Those two are going to make you a better producing winger. They saved Ehlers season, who couldn't score before the move. Stafford started the year with Lowry-Burmi. Poorly. Burmi seems to have killed the production of nearly every player he played with, minus perhaps Perrault. Stafford was also given significant PK duties in Frolik's and Slater's absence, which i think was a mismanagement of his minutes. With less PK time and proper usage (offensive zone.starts) and a contract year, i would expect him to pot 20 again (especially if our 3rd line featured Petan and Connor instead of Burmi-Dano). The other significant regression was our PP output. We have nowhere to go but up, which i.why i hope Vincent goes to the Moose, and we get a very cerebral coach in his place (Ducky or Oates). Myers was a juggernaut when he first arrived here. Can't understate how important he was in our playoff run. I think he struggled with Enstrom in d zone coverage, and having a team that lacked the ability to win faceoffs and also lacked in chemistry probably hurt his production. That's why i would like to see him with the steadier, more physical Morrissey. As Myers was very good with Buff, as good as Trouba, which says something about the variables involved. When i look at our lineup i still see Myers as the QBS for the 2nd PP. Trouba is a better passer, but not a better shot from the point. Myers can use.his size to change angles and just get shots to the net,. Enstrom should not be in the discussion, and Postma hasn't run a NHL PP with success. He will still struggle to make the lineup with the quality of RHD in front of him, all of whom can contribute to both special teams.

My concern is that if Stafford hits 20 again, it will be because he's being used too much in the top-6 and on the PP. The Jets should have plenty of top-6 F options that are better overall and can score...

Ehlers, Wheeler, Perreault, Connor/Laine. Even if the rookies aren't ready to produce at that level, I'd rather see Dano or even Armia in that role because of their more well-rounded games and offensive potential.

 

[Howard Chuck]

As you mention, it took expired contracts to Jokinen, Antropov & Slater to remove them from occupying the C2-C4 positions. Why would this year be any different? Maurice is just as guilty as Noel was for playing veterans over prospects.

I doubt anyone would disagree that Stuart serves no role other than as a bottom pairing defencemen. Although some would prefer him gone, most acknowledge he's capable in this limited role. It's been his use beyond that role that have had many shaking their heads. Even if Morrissey plays lights out in camp, Enstrom & his NMC stand in his way of the first pairing, Trouba now occupies the second pairing on his offside, bringing us back to the blood & guts assistant captain who has played through nearly every injury he's faced.

I would think if Morrissey makes the team, he'd assume Trouba's position shifting him back down to 3rd pairing with Stuart & placing Postma back in the press box during his final year before becoming a UFA. After his vocal frustration in media interviews last year, I wouldn't begin to think he'd consider resigning with the Jets should that scenario play out.

Again I agree that Laine & Connor are virtually NHL ready, but that doesn't mean that even that best of prospects can't use some AHL seasoning, particularly if it's at the expense of other prospects that have little left to gain at the AHL level like Armia or Dano. I also love the fact that we have three strong offensive prospects at each forward position, Conner (LW), Petan (C), & in all likelihood Laine (RW) that could very easily one day be the #1 line in Winnipeg. Allowing these three to begin this path together as the Moose #1 line could pan out quite nicely for all involved.

What is interesting is that once the late season injuries forced Maurice into playing the prospects, the team began rolling 4 lines, the penalty minutes substantially declined, likely the biggest reason the Jets began competing in every game down to the buzzer & the reason the tank failed.

If anything perhaps these final 10-15 games awoke something in both the coaching staff & managements head that our youthful core may be far more ready than they were given credit for. With Laine & Connor added to this mix I'll admit it's quite possible that Thorburn MAY see press box duty, although every Jets 2.0 decision made up until today suggests otherwise.

The bolded is a very good point (among others), that I hadn't considered. I imagine a month or so of rolling through the competition together as a line could be very beneficial. Wouldn't mind seeing that at all.

 

[Howard Chuck]

My concern is that if Stafford hits 20 again, it will be because he's being used too much in the top-6 and on the PP. The Jets should have plenty of top-6 F options that are better overall and can score...

Ehlers, Wheeler, Perreault, Connor/Laine. Even if the rookies aren't ready to produce at that level, I'd rather see Dano or even Armia in that role because of their more well-rounded games and offensive potential.

I agree. Stafford (and Lowry imo) shouldn't be anywhere near the names you mentioned above. They are completely different types of players that require line mates that can skate and think as fast as they do. Every line is only as strong as it's weakest (slowest) link.

 

[garret9]

Voyageur...

Stafford instantly started playing with Perreault and Scheifele. He didn't start playing with Wheeler until closer to the end of the season, where everyone got overly excited for a incredibly outshot line that had the fortunes of a nearly perfect save percentage hiding their issues. Stafford was never going to keep up his 2.7 goals per 60 mins with that line anyways, since that would essentially make him the greatest goal scorer in hockey by a huge margin.

Didn't save Ehlers, at least in the way you are making it out to be. Ehlers scored prior to playing with those two. He didn't score when he was with Thorburn, who has a far more consistent and pronounced impact than the one you are suggesting regarding Burmistrov. Ehlers scored his most goals per min with Perreault-Scheifele too.

Burmistrov did have a negative impact on team scoring, where the average of his linemates scored less with him than away... but that didn't used to be the case back in the day. Also, interesting to note that Thorburn and Stafford also had similarly negative impacts on linemate scoring.

Myers will not be a juggernaught for the Jets on the PP. He's scored 4 PP points so far for the Jets.
He also tends to decrease scoring chances creation by a significant margin:
2015-16: -10.3
2014-15: -0.21 (note relTM numbers "messy" with trade)
2013-14: +4.32
2012-13: -5.00
2011-12: -8.33
2010-11: -5.66
2009-10: -4.29

Myers barely ever played with Byfuglien... that said, Myers tends to be the problem not the solution:

He's passable top4 d-man, but there is no mistake he's the 4th best of the Jets top 4.

 

[garret9]

I completely agree with replacing Myers on the PP. I think Trouba is a much better option until proven otherwise. I think this is another "blind spot" that Maurice has in his player deployment. I wonder if his drop in PP production might be related to his ineptitude on the point, which is accentuated in a 4f1d alignment.

Ya, Myers is very annoying on the PP. His favourite move is skate-into-traffic-with-the-puck-and-make-garret-yell-at-his-tv. Very frustrating.

Possible, for this year, but mostly I think it's because he's not very good PP option at all.

Ah, found the post that argues your and my opinion on replacing Myers with Trouba on PP:
Team / Best / Worst / Excepted PPCD60 Delta
WPG / Trouba / Myers / 4.19

Source https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/01/13/predicting-which-players-will-succeed-on-the-powerplay/

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I do remember you saying that, and it becoming true. But i think you have to look at the bigger picture too. Stafford joined the Jets and was instantly placed on a line with Scheifele and Wheeler. Those two are going to make you a better producing winger. They saved Ehlers season, who couldn't score before the move. Stafford started the year with Lowry-Burmi. Poorly. Burmi seems to have killed the production of nearly every player he played with, minus perhaps Perrault. Stafford was also given significant PK duties in Frolik's and Slater's absence, which i think was a mismanagement of his minutes. With less PK time and proper usage (offensive zone.starts) and a contract year, i would expect him to pot 20 again (especially if our 3rd line featured Petan and Connor instead of Burmi-Dano). The other significant regression was our PP output. We have nowhere to go but up, which i.why i hope Vincent goes to the Moose, and we get a very cerebral coach in his place (Ducky or Oates). Myers was a juggernaut when he first arrived here. Can't understate how important he was in our playoff run. I think he struggled with Enstrom in d zone coverage, and having a team that lacked the ability to win faceoffs and also lacked in chemistry probably hurt his production. That's why i would like to see him with the steadier, more physical Morrissey. As Myers was very good with Buff, as good as Trouba, which says something about the variables involved. When i look at our lineup i still see Myers as the QBS for the 2nd PP. Trouba is a better passer, but not a better shot from the point. Myers can use.his size to change angles and just get shots to the net,. Enstrom should not be in the discussion, and Postma hasn't run a NHL PP with success. He will still struggle to make the lineup with the quality of RHD in front of him, all of whom can contribute to both special teams.

I assume the bolded refers to Postma. Who are these RHD who will keep him out of the lineup? Keep in mind that Trouba will be on the left side.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

His favourite move is skate-into-traffic-with-the-puck-and-make-garret-yell-at-his-tv.

I think many Jets fans' TVs suffered a lot of verbal abuse last season.

 

[voyageur]

I assume the bolded refers to Postma. Who are these RHD who will keep him out of the lineup? Keep in mind that Trouba will be on the left side.

That is by no means a guarantee. We didn't finish the season that way. He may get into the lineup if Trouba is shifted to his offside. But if Morrissey forces his way on to the team i would suspect it is in a traditional alignment with Postma being the odd man out, and either Chiarot or Stu in the PB.

 

[voyageur]

Voyageur...

Stafford instantly started playing with Perreault and Scheifele. He didn't start playing with Wheeler until closer to the end of the season, where everyone got overly excited for a incredibly outshot line that had the fortunes of a nearly perfect save percentage hiding their issues. Stafford was never going to keep up his 2.7 goals per 60 mins with that line anyways, since that would essentially make him the greatest goal scorer in hockey by a huge margin.

Didn't save Ehlers, at least in the way you are making it out to be. Ehlers scored prior to playing with those two. He didn't score when he was with Thorburn, who has a far more consistent and pronounced impact than the one you are suggesting regarding Burmistrov. Ehlers scored his most goals per min with Perreault-Scheifele too.

Burmistrov did have a negative impact on team scoring, where the average of his linemates scored less with him than away... but that didn't used to be the case back in the day. Also, interesting to note that Thorburn and Stafford also had similarly negative impacts on linemate scoring.

Myers will not be a juggernaught for the Jets on the PP. He's scored 4 PP points so far for the Jets.
He also tends to decrease scoring chances creation by a significant margin:
2015-16: -10.3
2014-15: -0.21 (note relTM numbers "messy" with trade)
2013-14: +4.32
2012-13: -5.00
2011-12: -8.33
2010-11: -5.66
2009-10: -4.29

Myers barely ever played with Byfuglien... that said, Myers tends to be the problem not the solution:

He's passable top4 d-man, but there is no mistake he's the 4th best of the Jets top 4.

A question relative to that, does that mean that Enstrom-Buff had a good Corsi/Fenwick but were impacted negatively in goals against? Also what are the relative numbers for Chiarot-Buff and Morrissey-Myers in their 1st game together, as well as Buff-Myers?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That is by no means a guarantee. We didn't finish the season that way. He may get into the lineup if Trouba is shifted to his offside. But if Morrissey forces his way on to the team i would suspect it is in a traditional alignment with Postma being the odd man out, and either Chiarot or Stu in the PB.

I think it is (finally) safe to assume that our best 4 D will play as the top 4. I also think that there is very little chance of Morrissey starting his NHL career in the top 4. If Trouba doesn't play the left side then either Buff or Myers will.

 

[lomiller1]

Ya, Myers is very annoying on the PP. His favourite move is skate-into-traffic-with-the-puck-and-make-garret-yell-at-his-tv.

Don't overlook his stand motionless at the blueline with the puck while the box resets move

 

[garret9]

A question relative to that, does that mean that Enstrom-Buff had a good Corsi/Fenwick but were impacted negatively in goals against? Also what are the relative numbers for Chiarot-Buff and Morrissey-Myers in their 1st game together, as well as Buff-Myers?

xGoals is expected goals. It seems to outperform Corsi/Fenwick at team and individual level for predicting goal differentials for in-season sample (ie: looking at first 20 games of a team/line/player/pair and predicting back 62), but it seems to do worse in predicting out-season sample (ie: looking at how a team/line/player/pair does one year and predicting the next season).

Part of what you are seeing with the difference in Corsi/Fenwick and xGoals is the fact that Byfuglien does have a negative impact on defensive shot quality, although when we expand the sample to multiple seasons with that pair we see the gap lessen substantially and their xGoals rise, so part is just sampling.

Chiarot-Byfuglien were around 50% in all 3 numbers.

Morrissey-Myers had bad numbers, but it was one bad game for the Jets. Corsi/Fenwick are good as samples expand, but even they are not very telling at that sample. Myers-Byfuglien had good numbers but again was not a sample size where I'd take much, if any, meaning from it. Players have their ups and downs and in small samples both numbers and eyes can get highly hurt from things like playing a team with a down or good game, or their own forward teammates, etc.

 

[portamoral]

to start the year i'm guessing the lineup will look similar to this;

ehlers - chef - wheels

laine - litts - stafford

connor - perreault - dano

lowry - burmi - armia

ehlers would start with this line on his off wing just due to the fact he'll be a sophomore and I wouldn't want our rookies slotting in the top line getting thrown into huge minutes right from the get go. after the adjustment period it could look a lot different though. hopefully stafford is gone by the trade deadline and connor/laine will be comfortable enough for full time top 6 minutes.

afterwards i'd like to see;

laine - chef - wheeler

connor - litts - ehlers

petan - perreault - dano

lowry - burmi - armia

 

[jetsforever]

Voyageur...

Stafford instantly started playing with Perreault and Scheifele. He didn't start playing with Wheeler until closer to the end of the season, where everyone got overly excited for a incredibly outshot line that had the fortunes of a nearly perfect save percentage hiding their issues. Stafford was never going to keep up his 2.7 goals per 60 mins with that line anyways, since that would essentially make him the greatest goal scorer in hockey by a huge margin.

Didn't save Ehlers, at least in the way you are making it out to be. Ehlers scored prior to playing with those two. He didn't score when he was with Thorburn, who has a far more consistent and pronounced impact than the one you are suggesting regarding Burmistrov. Ehlers scored his most goals per min with Perreault-Scheifele too.

Burmistrov did have a negative impact on team scoring, where the average of his linemates scored less with him than away... but that didn't used to be the case back in the day. Also, interesting to note that Thorburn and Stafford also had similarly negative impacts on linemate scoring.

Myers will not be a juggernaught for the Jets on the PP. He's scored 4 PP points so far for the Jets.
He also tends to decrease scoring chances creation by a significant margin:
2015-16: -10.3
2014-15: -0.21 (note relTM numbers "messy" with trade)
2013-14: +4.32
2012-13: -5.00
2011-12: -8.33
2010-11: -5.66
2009-10: -4.29

Myers barely ever played with Byfuglien... that said, Myers tends to be the problem not the solution:

He's passable top4 d-man, but there is no mistake he's the 4th best of the Jets top 4.

Is it just me or are Chiarot-Postma weirdly high? Small sample size maybe

 

[garret9]

Is it just me or are Chiarot-Postma weirdly high? Small sample size maybe

Postma tends to do well even with bad linemates.
Pardy 57% Corsi over 350 mins
Clitsome 54% Corsi over 255 mins
Chiarot 52% Corsi over 146 mins
Stuart 47% Corsi over 306 mins (IMO, that's not bad given #Stuuuu)

Postma does struggle when he gets promoted up the line but he does well in sheltered minute roles. If you are going to have a guy on your third pair, Postma is a good one to have.

 

[jetsforever]

Postma tends to do well even with bad linemates.
Pardy 57% Corsi over 350 mins
Clitsome 54% Corsi over 255 mins
Chiarot 52% Corsi over 146 mins
Stuart 47% Corsi over 306 mins (IMO, that's not bad given #Stuuuu)

Postma does struggle when he gets promoted up the line but he does well in sheltered minute roles. If you are going to have a guy on your third pair, Postma is a good one to have.

Wow, that's pretty encouraging (although who knows if he'll get many more chances given how much Maurice likes to scratch him). We have him for one more year though - maybe Morrissey-Postma could work. Gotta get rid of Stu though

 

[Zhamnov10]

Postma tends to do well even with bad linemates.
Pardy 57% Corsi over 350 mins
Clitsome 54% Corsi over 255 mins
Chiarot 52% Corsi over 146 mins
Stuart 47% Corsi over 306 mins (IMO, that's not bad given #Stuuuu)

Postma does struggle when he gets promoted up the line but he does well in sheltered minute roles. If you are going to have a guy on your third pair, Postma is a good one to have.

Except for the fact that he is scared of his own shadow and Maurice despises him for that!

 

[garret9]

Except for the fact that he is scared of his own shadow and Maurice despises him for that!

Results > Style (90% of the time)

 

[Whileee]

Except for the fact that he is scared of his own shadow and Maurice despises him for that!

Maurice has an unfortunate penchant for letting specific plays or games influence his longer term deployment. A weak defensive play by Postma sticks like glue to him. He's more willing to forget bad plays by his gritty core players. He'll need to modify his approach if he is going to be able to coach a highly skilled young line up. I think he'll adjust, but I have some concern in this area.

 

[voyageur]

Is it just me or are Chiarot-Postma weirdly high? Small sample size maybe

Yeah if you are reading off Garrett's analytics, it would make the most sense to start the season with

Trouba-Buff
Enstrom-Myers
Chiarot-Postma
with Stuart in the PB.

Morrissey is groomed to fill in for injury and try to make it impossible to demote him.

The rightful knock on Postma is his weak defensive zone play, and the fact he does not kill penalties, making him a 5 on 5 option only, when i think Maurice would prefer to have a PKer to spell his horses and balance minutes.

 

[Daximus]

Maurice has an unfortunate penchant for letting specific plays or games influence his longer term deployment. A weak defensive play by Postma sticks like glue to him. He's more willing to forget bad plays by his gritty core players. He'll need to modify his approach if he is going to be able to coach a highly skilled young line up. I think he'll adjust, but I have some concern in this area.

I agree with Whileee, Mo tends to forgive certain players for their transgressions more than others. We'll see how he adapts with another run of rookies, and sophomores.

 

[CaptainChef]

Maurice has an unfortunate penchant for letting specific plays or games influence his longer term deployment. A weak defensive play by Postma sticks like glue to him. He's more willing to forget bad plays by his gritty core players. He'll need to modify his approach if he is going to be able to coach a highly skilled young line up. I think he'll adjust, but I have some concern in this area.

I'd elevate that concern to a higher level. Maurice's deployment of his pylons vs worthy players in the past has been atrocious. Whats going to change? Stu & Thorbs will still be around -- Stu being used regularly in place of Postma & Morrissey; Thorbs a regular on the 4th line.

Unless these guys are shipped off to the Moose to serve in whatever capacity, Maurice lacks the sense to deploy them properly