Blue Jays GDT: (2015 v8) Next: vs Hou | Sun, Jun 7th | 1pm ET/10am PT | McHugh vs Dickey
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Longshot
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What is going on with Reyes? He looks absolutely clueless at the plate.
Edit: Seriously, he had one job there. Extend the inning. Work the count. Try and get on to get Donaldson to the plate. But, he's up there swinging wildly at everything and looking like a fool in the process.
Edit: Seriously, he had one job there. Extend the inning. Work the count. Try and get on to get Donaldson to the plate. But, he's up there swinging wildly at everything and looking like a fool in the process.
LaCarriere
Registered User
I don't know why that was scored a single + error... I'm not sure why carrera slowed down like 1/3 of the way around the bag either. At that point you just gotta go for it. Considering it was off the top of the wall I thought he would have been thinking double all the way and made it in easy.
Bad News Benning
Fallin for Dahlin?
Reyes needs his eyes checked. He swings at way too many balls. lead off man needs to get on base at a better clip.
Longshot
Registered User
It was one of those baseball situations in which there is really no "wrong" strategy.
Bottom of the order with none out and a runner at second in a game they're leading 2-1.
You can swing away and play for a big inning knowing the runner is in scoring position.
Or you can sacrifice and try to get a run out of your bottom three.
It all comes down to: do you think Pillar will make an out that advances the runner or strands him at second?
LaCarriere
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I'll give him the benefit of the doubt in that he's only been back for a week and needs a little time and just to see more at bats, but yea, he hasn't been a great lead off so far.
Longshot
Registered User
Great inning by Hutch. Bottom of the order gets him a run and he goes out and retires the side quickly. Great job.
Longshot
Registered User
Wow. Zaun just ripped Reyes and the Twins SS on the bloop single that scored two runs for the Jays a couple innings ago.
Said the Twins guy gave a "Z-effort" trying to catch the ball.
And said Reyes had a 2-0 count and took an "emergency swing" on a ball out of the strike zone that led to the bloop hit. His point: why is he swinging at a pitch like that at 2-0 with the big boppers coming up behind him.
Interesting analysis.
Said the Twins guy gave a "Z-effort" trying to catch the ball.
And said Reyes had a 2-0 count and took an "emergency swing" on a ball out of the strike zone that led to the bloop hit. His point: why is he swinging at a pitch like that at 2-0 with the big boppers coming up behind him.
Interesting analysis.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
The last two years (well last year and so far this year) he's had a marked uptick in his swing rate. Prior to 2014 he would swing at about 39-43% of all pitches thrown. For 2014 and so far 2015 he's swinging at basically half of everything he sees. His contact rates are about the same as they've ever been, but yeah this year especially he's really expanded his zone and swung at stuff outside (almost 40% of pitches out of the zone he'll swing at, which is up from about 33% last year and has been pretty steadily climbing for his whole career.) Last year he had a fluky year of swinging a lot more in the zone, but that's gone away and he's back to his career norms in zone-swings.
But he's really hurting himself with regards to count. He's not seeing any more pitches in the zone than he normally does, but in the last two years he's had 10-15% more first pitch strikes than he's normally had for the rest of his career.
the Pitch FX plate discipline #s are slightly different, but show much the same issues (rising swing rate, rising rate of swinging out of the zone, no real change in where he's getting pitched in terms of in/out of the zone or contact)
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1736&position=SS#platediscipline
EDIT: Looking at his Brooks Baseball page, he seems especially susceptible to swinging at high pitches this year. Far above his career norms.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_pro...FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016
Longshot
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Longshot
Registered User
In other words: he's doing the last thing you want a lead off hitter to do in a line up that has Donaldson, Bautista and EE following him.
LaCarriere
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That was kind of sad, to be honest. When I saw that throw I thought there was no way it would make it in time.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
pretty much. He was a super-patient hitter from about 07-13, but in the last two years that's gone entirely to hell. He's not striking out any more but it's like he went to the Melky Cabrera school of swinging at damn near everything and he 's paying for it.
small sample size, but in his 90 PAs so far this season he has just 2 walks. A 2.2% walk rate would be the lowest rate he's put out in his career since his second (partial) season with the Mets in '04, and is about 3x-4x worse than his average for the last decade.
Longshot
Registered User
I wonder if there is an explanation.
Why would a player that has been super-patient in the past suddenly start swinging at everything? If anything, in this lineup, you would think a super-patient guy would become more patient. (And that's not just this year's lineup. Last year Reyes was followed by Melky, Bautista, EE and Lind).
He's changed his approach to precisely what they don't want.
LaCarriere
Registered User
He's hitting .225. I wouldn't give him the green light unless he's up closer to .240-.250. They don't need a big inning out of the bottom 3, and getting the insurance run with that score is more important than trying for a big inning out of the bottom 3. If that's anyone other than the bottom 3 you don't play bunt, but I think that's the right move with that hitter with that score.
Donaldson, Bautista, EE and Martin can give you 2-3 runs with the swing of a bat, play for the big innings with those guys but if you can get a run out of their bottom 3 that's always a plus.
If Pillar fails to move him over with a ground ball out or short fly there's a good chance they waste that double. Goins fly ball probably wasn't deep enough to move him to 3rd, and then Reyes ended the inning.
I think they played that perfectly. We're so used to home run hero-ball that most don't appreciate some well executed small ball.
Longshot
Registered User
Well said.
Now (I know Pillar just hit into a double play) what do you do in this situation?
Bottom third, lead off single.
I'm sacrificing the runner to second and taking two shots to score him on a hit. I want to avoid the double play there.
Which is what Gibbons didn't do. But, I won't rip him for it. At 4-1, it's not an awful idea to take a chance for a big inning.
Bad News Benning
Fallin for Dahlin?
What's Pillar's line drive rate? Seems to me most of his hits are either bloops or weak grounders that find holes. He doesn't seem to hit the ball hard consistently. He makes a lot of weak contact from what my eyes are telling me.
LaCarriere
Registered User
I agree with that. With the way the bottom 3 is hitting I'm not really opposed to giving up an out in any situation to stay out of a double play or advance a runner into scoring position and having two cracks at scoring a run.
Longshot
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In that situation a sac bunt would have extended the inning. Seems weird, make an out to extend the inning. But if they bunt, Carerra goes to second. Goins has that hard shot to first that advances the runner to third. And Reyes has a chance to bring in the run.
I don't have a problem with what Gibbons decided. But, for me, if my 7th hitters leads off with a single. The 8th hitter is bunting every time.
OilerPensfan97
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