Caser
Moderator
Hi Everyone
The draft day is approaching, so I decided to start a new thread (I don't think it would be a good idea to continue existing one) about Russian prospects in this year's NHL draft. It was a lot of fun (at least for me) in last year's thread, so hope it will be at least not worse this time.
What to expect this year?
Obviously this year we can expect weakening of the Russian factor, since KHL isn't that strong now and success stories like Tampa's are really generating some inspiration for other teams. Size factor could be reduced this year also as players like Gaudreau and Tampa's Triplets have shown that lack of size can be compensated with other skills and factors. Skating factor is pretty much there to stay, so we can expect Russians with a questionable skating to fall in a certain degree. I would like also to note that this year there is an unprecedented hype for Russian prospects by various sources, and I thought that usually it was me who does the overhyping, but this year I'm not even in the same league.
Below is a quick overview of Russian prospects available this year. As I still struggle with finding the right format, this year I made it as a rankings divided in four tiers: Top-tier (99% probability to be drafted), mid-tier (likely to be drafted, but far from sure thing) and two lower tiers ('maybes') - one with prospects that are often mentioned in rankings and another one with my personal favorites. For the top tier part I also tried to also predict where they will be drafted. As usual, if you think that there is something incorrect, feel free to disagree and make corrections, since often my opinion is based on rather limited views.
Top Tier - guys that I consider as a lock to be selected this year:
Ivan Provorov (LD, 6'0"/201lbs; WHL: 15+46 in 60 GP, WHL PO: 2+11 in 19 GP, U20 WJC: 0+1 in 7 GP)
Probably everything has already been said about him, just wanted to notice that such an elite IQ is really something to be excited about (in my opinion in this aspect it's him and McD clearly above everyone in this draft). The kind of rapid progress and different edges of his talent he was showing during this season made me struggle at comparisons all season long and right now I'm thinking that the good comparison could be Sergei Zubov.
Draft-day: Easily a Top10 guy (who would've thought about it before the season, eh?), with some rumors that Toronto is considering him for the 4-th pick. While 4-th might seem to be too high, but I would definitely understand the motivation for it: with this kind of a development curve Provorov is having you have to wonder where is the ceiling actually.
Yevgeni Svechnikov (W, 6'2"/201lbs; QMJHL: 32+46 in 55 GP, QMJHL PO: 1+6 in 7GP)
Strong and dynamic winger with great hands and shot that can add a lot of flash to the attack. With everything already been said about him in multiple scouting reports, I wanted to add that now I understood why I've been comparing him to Kovalchuk-lite before this season: he got the same look when he is on the attack like Kovi and Tarasenko have - like a shark that smells blood.
Draft-day: Top 15-20 range, maybe falls further since teams that select in that range don't have a successful first round Russian experience (there can be trades though); if that's the case, he will be a real steal for some team.
Denis Guryanov (W, 6'2"/187lbs; KHL: 0+1 in 8 GP, MHL: 15+10 in 23 GP, MHL PO: 3+1 in 4 GP, U18 WJC: 6+1 in 5 GP)
A real athlete: skating, shot, body fitness, finishing - he got that all. To understand this better, let's remember that last summer he had absolutely no problems going through Lada KHL team's training camp - and he just turned 17 at that time. Actually I just caught myself thinking that Guryanov is so naturally gifted that he could succeed at any other sport if he wouldn't have played hockey. I still think he is a risky prospect though - he often looks too selfish, makes doubtful decisions, not too consistent and also looks like he is not very fond of fighting for the puck (we should give credit to Mikhail Vorobyov for carrying a lot of workload for Guryanov at U18). Also there is a thought that he will not be that dominating after a couple of years, since he will lose that physical superiority that he has now over players his age. With all that being said, I think he can become a really powerful offensive weapon if utilized properly.
Draft-day: although most of rankings have him in the first round and while there are couple of teams in the late first that just badly need a high ceiling addition to winger prospect pool, I wouldn't be too surprised if he falls into an early second.
Ilya Samsonov (GK, 6'3"/201lbs; KHL: .500 SVS%, 5.50 GAA in 1 GP, MHL: .918 SVS%, 2.66 GAA in 18 GP; MHL PO: .937 SVS%, 2.83 GAA in 2 GP; U18 WJC: .934 SVS%, 2.67 GAA in 3 GP)
Big goalie with some nice reflexes, extremely calm and with a decent rebound control. I'm not too high on his mobility though, his lateral movements look too heavy to me (not like it can't be fixed though). Often is compared to a poor man's Vasilevskiy, but I recently thought that Ben Bishop actually might be an even better comparison.
Draft-day: again I will disagree with some rankings that have him in first round: it's hard to imagine that teams will select any goalie in the first this year, especially a Russian not named Vasilevskiy. Still, since this year is weak at goalies, he is the high priority selection for any team that need a fix in their goalie prospect pool, so the start of the second round sounds reasonable for me.
Alexander Dergachov (RW/C, 6'4"/226lbs; MHL: 10+29 in 45 GP, MHL PO: 11+7 in 19 GP, U20 WJC: 1+3 in 7 GP)
Big guy with a heavy shot. Works and fights hard to get and protect the puck, knows how to use his body very well (probably everyone remembers that back from U20). His frame is really of elite caliber - he looked like a man among boys in MHL play-off games that I've watched and there were some KHL guys playing in those games. Skating is an issue, although while watching his game at MHL play-offs I had a feeling he showed some progress there recently. Became a best goalscorer of MHL play-offs this season. In my opinion, his talents are better utilized at W than at C - playing at W we could expect that he becomes something like Kulemin, while for C position I don't think he got the required creativity.
Draft-day: I will agree with the rankings - bottom second round sound reasonable for a Russian with questionable skating. Upd: Looks like recently his draft stock has risen and he is now considered more as a potential upper/middle second round pick (I'm fine with that estimation too).
Nikita Korostelev (W, 6'1"/196lbs; OHL: 24+29 in 55 GP, OHL PO: 1+2 in 5 GP)
Good all-around player, really can't think of any weak spots except of inconsistency. Although his performance this season made me actually start to doubt if there are any elite spots, except his shot - it is pretty impressive. Anyway, for Korostelev there are much more questions than answers at this moment.
Draft-day: 3-rd round for a chance that there is something more than he has showed so far.
Yakov Trenin (C/LW, 6'2"/194lbs; QMJHL: 18+49 in 58 GP, QMJHL PO: 3+8 in 11 GP)
Hardworking physically gifted guy (topped the VO2max test together with Eichel, also had one of the top wingspan as measured at the combine) with some elite playmaking and vision (at that part he really reminds me of another Traktor hockey school graduate Kuznetsov), but with rather weak skating (and yes, it is weak even considering his size). The skating part makes him a risky prospect, since we actually expect Trenin to become even bigger and in that case he needs to put a lot of work in his skating. During this season Trenin benefited from being moved from W to C, which, in my opinion, is better for utilizing his playmaking talents.
Draft-day: skating is a big thing that can strengthen the Russian factor (Barbashev last year have fallen out of the first because of it), so I wouldn't be surprised if Trenin falls to 4-th round.
Mid-tier pool - very strong candidates for rounds 5-to-7, have a high chances to be drafted, but you never know:
Pavel Karnaukhov (C, 6'1"/196lbs; WHL: 20+22 in 69 GP; WHL PO: 6+5 in 17 GP; Hlinka Memorial: 0+1in 4 GP)
Strong athletic center that got some passing and finishing, also can be valuable on both ends of the ice. Didn't have a great debut season, was very inconsistent, although in this case I tend to think that it's just adaptation issues and that his raw talents were still clearly noticeable.
Kirill Kaprizov (RW, 5'10"/181lbs; KHL: 4+4 in 31 GP, MHL: 0+2 in 3 GP, MHL PO: 0+0 in 3 GP, U18 WJC: 1+3 in 4 GP, Hlinka Memorial: 5+2 in 4 GP)
Small guy (I would actually argue that 5'10" is that small) with physicality issues, but with a hard work and smartness he was able to progress during this season into a full-time KHL player. Got a good speed, hands and a lot of energy in his game. His stats might be not too impressive, but if we look back, we can see that there are some decent names that had similar or worse numbers in KHL at their draft year - Kuznetsov, Slepyshev, Buchnevich.
Vladimir Tkachyov (LW, 5'10"/163lbs; QMJHL: 16+33 in 46 GP, QMJHL PO: 6+10 in 21 GP, Memorial Cup: 0+3 in 5 GP)
Again a very known guy here. After some great pre-season games Tkachev looked unmotivated at the second half of the season, but I can't really blame him: voided contract, U20 NT cut, trade - that's too much for a single season. Anyway, if Edmonton doesn't select him at the later rounds I still think it will be plain stupid - they've seen more than enough of what Tkachev can do at the camp and I don't think that Tkachev will return there if they don't select him again. Also I think St. Louis might be interested to add a skilled chemistry guy to Barbashev, since they got two 5-th round picks.
Vladislav Gavrikov (D, 6'2"/205lbs; KHL: 0+1 in 16 GP, KHL PO: 0+0 in 4 GP, VHL: 1+2 in 11 GP, MHL: 1+6 in 16 GP, MHL PO: 0+0 in 5 GP, U20 WJC: 0+0 in 7 GP)
U20 NT captain (who would've thought some time ago that he would take the C away from Barbashev?), who really led the team by example and deservingly was named the best defender of the U20 WJC and also made a debut in the main Russia NT. Strong stay-at-home defender, very good at positioning - should be drafted somewhere in mid to late rounds unless Russian factor gets really ugly this year.
Maxim Lazarev (W, 5'10"/170lbs; QMJHL: 36+44 in 65 GP, QMJHL PO: 0+1 in 4 GP)
One more guy that is not too physically gifted, but definitely got the offensive tools to compensate that - skating, finishing, creativity. In his second QMJHL season Lazarev improved his work rate, stayed away from injuries and also got some help from his long time buddy Svechnikov arriving at the off-season - all of this combined with his unquestionable offensive talent resulted in some really good production numbers. I think that it should be good enough to be drafted in round 5 or 6. Also I think that the team that gets Svechnikov might want to get also Lazarev, since it could solve a deficit at winger prospect pool for any team.
Vyacheslav Leschenko (C/W, 5'11/167lbs, KHL: 5+4 in 34 GP, MHL: 2+4 in 6 GP, MHL PO: 4+1 in 5 GP, U20 WJC: 3+2 in 7 GP)
I really was doubtful about Leschenko before the U20 WJC, but when it started he just washed away all my doubts - he got under opponent's skin, worked hard, wasn't afraid of anything fighting in front of the net - you really need those kind of players, who opponents just hate playing against, to win cups. He is not very big (listed at 5'11" and 167lbs), but he already plays much bigger than his size and if he gains some more strength I can imagine him becoming something like Leo Komarov.
Alexander Sharov (C, 6'2"/192lbs; KHL: 3+4 in 40 GP, MHL: 1+5 in 5 GP, MHL PO: 2+4 in 4 GP; U20 WJC: 4+1 in 7 GP)
High risk, but possibly high reward - that's definitely about Sharov: at WJC he showed that sometimes he can win games almost single-handedly, but also showed that he can be inconsistent even at this kind of short tournament. His skill set includes big body, elite skating and shot and I can imagine that teams could be willing to risk with a lower round pick for that.
Ziyat Paygin (D, 6'6"/209lbs; KHL: 1+1 in 33 GP, KHL PO: 0+0 in 1 GP, VHL: 0+1 in 3 GP, U20 WJC: 1+2 in 7 GP)
I really didn't want to separate Paygin and Yudin (put Paygin in the higher tier mostly because of the frame, also because he isn't contracted to KHL tycoons SKA): both are really strong, both got a powerful shot, still both looked kind of error prone though, but at the U20 WJC we could see that coach Bragin could definitely handle that. Both remind me of Nikita Nikitin - not a very consistent guy, but who still could do well under right circumstances.
HM's - a list of guys that I'm not very high on, but since they have a decent chance to get drafted in the later rounds, it would be unfair to ignore them:
Nikita Pavlychev (C, 6'6"/207lbs; USHL: 6+10 in 42 GP)
Size matters, it really does (and I remember in some interview he mentioned that he plans to bulk up even more), but for his size such a production level in junior league looks really worrisome to me.
Yegor Rykov (D, 6'0"/205lbs; MHL: 5+16 in 42 GP, MHL PO: 1+1 in 7 GP, U18 WJC: 0+0 in 5 PG, Hlinka Memorial: 1+1 in 4 GP)
Defender with some good tools (skating, body, passing), but really didn't impress me at his own end - really can't say that he is reliable - something like a poor man's Kulikov.
Maxim Tretyak (GK, 6'3"/229 lbs; MHL: .876 SVS%, 3.16 GAA in 25 GP; MHL PO: .913 SVS%, 2.12 GAA in 8 GP)
After a promising last year's U18 WJC Tretyak had a really bad season at MHL (ok, play-offs were rather good), but we have to consider the bloodline factor here: 'Montreal Canadians select Tretyak at round seven' sounds good and whatever sounds good is good for marketing. And yes, also he is big, and nowadays big goalies are considered to be valuable.
Dmitry Zhukenov (C, 5'11"/165lbs; MHL: 3+16 in 35 GP, MHL PO: 0+2 in 4 GP, U18 WJC: 3+3 in 5 GP, Hlinka Memorial: 1+4 in 5 PG)
Good playmaking center, hard working, but not sure if there is actually something good enough to become a future NHL-er. The reason why he is in this list is because there are strong rumors that he is moving to CHL this summer and for Russian players that usually means that some team is ready to draft him if he will come over immediately.
Dmitri Yudin (D, 6'2"/185lbs; KHL: 1+6 in 47 GP, KHL PO: 0+0 in 9 GP, U20 WJC: 1+1 in 7 GP, MHL PO: 0+1 in 4 GP)
(I'll just do a little copy/pasting here. ) I really didn't want to separate Paygin and Yudin (put Paygin in the higher tier mostly because of the frame, also because he isn't contracted with KHL tycoons SKA): both are really strong, both got a powerful shot, still both looked kind of error prone though, but at the U20 WJC we could see that coach Bragin could definitely handle that. Both remind me of Nikita Nikitin - not a very consistent guy, but who still could do well under right circumstances.
Damir Sharipzyanov (D, 6'1"/203lbs; OHL: 9+25 in 65 GP; OHL PO: 1+2 in 5 GP)
Classical two-way defender, great skater, good at puck distribution, reliable, consistent and is finally having a strong season - I think with that kind of properties he even could go as high as 4-th round (ok, this year is too strong) even though he didn't make the U20 WJC squad.
Wild-cards - prospects I really like, but with a not very high chance to get drafted this time, although maybe someone will be willing to risk with a 7-th round pick:
Sergei Zborovsky (D, 6'4"/190lbs; WHL: 3+16 in 71 GP, WHL PO: 0+1 in 6 GP)
While in several reports I have read that there might be nothing special about him, I tend to disagree - that kind of combination of a great frame and decent skating looks very promising, it looks to me that he will be able to gain some additional strength without any problems. Also I think that he hasn't shown everything in terms of offensive production yet, since it looks like he knows how to pass the puck. While often he looked lost and had issues with adapting to WHL game, his decision making was good and even very good if we remember that it is basically his debut year in junior hockey. Really reminds me of some of Russian defenders back from 90's - guys like Zhitnik and Kravchuk.
Kirill Pilipenko (RW, 5'10"/194lbs; MHL: 17+20 in 38 GP; MHL PO: 3+4 in 7 GP)
Pilipenko was always considered one of the most talented 1996 born players and I think he still is when healthy. It's a shame that after a great last year's U18 WJC, this season has been an injury nightmare for him. He reminds me of Kucherov (and it has no relation to recent Kucherov hype), except maybe the elite release and the enormous ability to find chemistry with any partners that Kucherov has (Pilipenko is also fine in those components, just not elite). Everything else is there: his hands are just golden, IQ, flair, vision, skating and shooting are also good. He is also not shy to play some defense and is great at using his stick to rob opponents Datsyukian style. Weak spots are body usage and, as already mentioned, injury history (missed something like a half year recently). I can say that to me his game is a joy to watch, and I rarely say those kind of things about junior hockey, so I really hope that the injury troubles won't take that away.
Denis Kostin (GK, 6'1"/187lbs; KHL: 2.17 GAA, .923 SVS% in 18 GP, KHL PO: 2.10 GAA, .913 SVS% in 7 GP, MHL PO: 4.10 GAA, .840 SVS% in 1 GP)
Kostin didn't look good at U20 NT games, but he is definitely good playing at KHL - started the season as a promising back-up, he steadily pushed experienced Barulin out of his safe starter place. Good goalie skills overall, can't think of any weak spots, but lacks consistency, although he looks very confident when he's got his game going. Still got a lot of work in front of him, but it certainly doesn't look like he would be afraid of it. At the end of the day he might get selected, since it shouldn't be a very strong draft for goalies and not a lot of goalie prospects were performing like that in KHL at the age of 19.
Ivan Fischenko (C/RW, 6'2"/201lbs; KHL: 1+2 in 21 GP, KHL PO: 1+1 in 12 GP, VHL: 4+3 in 5 GP, MHL: 0+1 in 1 GP, U20 WJC: 0+1 in 7 GP)
Fischenko is often undeservingly forgotten in U20 NT success, while he was instrumental there - his strong, hard-working, clever and defensively reliable game has made team's 4-th line into a real shut-down line, also he was doing really well on the penalty kill. He got rewarded though: after WJC he became an undisputable KHL first team player and also already debuted at Russia NT.
Nikolai Glukhov (D, 6'3"/183lbs; KHL: 0+2 in 35 GP, KHL PO: 0+1 in 12 GP, MHL: 4+9 in 13 GP)
At first I didn't plan to include Glukhov in the list, since he didn't make the final U20 NT roster, but this guy got a rather valuable asset - he is a right-handed puckmoving defender and there's a certain fashion (sometimes I even tend to call it a 'fetish' ) for players like that in NHL now, not to mention that he has already got experience at KHL level. The reason why he didn't make U20 NT, in my opinion, is that he kind of lacks physicality and needs to get stronger, but recently Nesterov's example showed us that it's not really hard to fix that.
So comparing to my 'Svechnikov and some other guys' expectations at the start of the season, things really got much more interesting at the end. Not like I'm good at predictions, but my opinion is that at the end of the day something like 13 Russians could get drafted, and while it is the same number like last year, this draft is much stronger, so that would be a very good result.
And yes, don't be shy to post any corrections, questions, additions, rankings, news, opinions, expectations and other stuff related to the topic, those are very welcome.
The draft day is approaching, so I decided to start a new thread (I don't think it would be a good idea to continue existing one) about Russian prospects in this year's NHL draft. It was a lot of fun (at least for me) in last year's thread, so hope it will be at least not worse this time.
What to expect this year?
Obviously this year we can expect weakening of the Russian factor, since KHL isn't that strong now and success stories like Tampa's are really generating some inspiration for other teams. Size factor could be reduced this year also as players like Gaudreau and Tampa's Triplets have shown that lack of size can be compensated with other skills and factors. Skating factor is pretty much there to stay, so we can expect Russians with a questionable skating to fall in a certain degree. I would like also to note that this year there is an unprecedented hype for Russian prospects by various sources, and I thought that usually it was me who does the overhyping, but this year I'm not even in the same league.
Below is a quick overview of Russian prospects available this year. As I still struggle with finding the right format, this year I made it as a rankings divided in four tiers: Top-tier (99% probability to be drafted), mid-tier (likely to be drafted, but far from sure thing) and two lower tiers ('maybes') - one with prospects that are often mentioned in rankings and another one with my personal favorites. For the top tier part I also tried to also predict where they will be drafted. As usual, if you think that there is something incorrect, feel free to disagree and make corrections, since often my opinion is based on rather limited views.
Top Tier - guys that I consider as a lock to be selected this year:
Ivan Provorov (LD, 6'0"/201lbs; WHL: 15+46 in 60 GP, WHL PO: 2+11 in 19 GP, U20 WJC: 0+1 in 7 GP)
Probably everything has already been said about him, just wanted to notice that such an elite IQ is really something to be excited about (in my opinion in this aspect it's him and McD clearly above everyone in this draft). The kind of rapid progress and different edges of his talent he was showing during this season made me struggle at comparisons all season long and right now I'm thinking that the good comparison could be Sergei Zubov.
Draft-day: Easily a Top10 guy (who would've thought about it before the season, eh?), with some rumors that Toronto is considering him for the 4-th pick. While 4-th might seem to be too high, but I would definitely understand the motivation for it: with this kind of a development curve Provorov is having you have to wonder where is the ceiling actually.
Yevgeni Svechnikov (W, 6'2"/201lbs; QMJHL: 32+46 in 55 GP, QMJHL PO: 1+6 in 7GP)
Strong and dynamic winger with great hands and shot that can add a lot of flash to the attack. With everything already been said about him in multiple scouting reports, I wanted to add that now I understood why I've been comparing him to Kovalchuk-lite before this season: he got the same look when he is on the attack like Kovi and Tarasenko have - like a shark that smells blood.
Draft-day: Top 15-20 range, maybe falls further since teams that select in that range don't have a successful first round Russian experience (there can be trades though); if that's the case, he will be a real steal for some team.
Denis Guryanov (W, 6'2"/187lbs; KHL: 0+1 in 8 GP, MHL: 15+10 in 23 GP, MHL PO: 3+1 in 4 GP, U18 WJC: 6+1 in 5 GP)
A real athlete: skating, shot, body fitness, finishing - he got that all. To understand this better, let's remember that last summer he had absolutely no problems going through Lada KHL team's training camp - and he just turned 17 at that time. Actually I just caught myself thinking that Guryanov is so naturally gifted that he could succeed at any other sport if he wouldn't have played hockey. I still think he is a risky prospect though - he often looks too selfish, makes doubtful decisions, not too consistent and also looks like he is not very fond of fighting for the puck (we should give credit to Mikhail Vorobyov for carrying a lot of workload for Guryanov at U18). Also there is a thought that he will not be that dominating after a couple of years, since he will lose that physical superiority that he has now over players his age. With all that being said, I think he can become a really powerful offensive weapon if utilized properly.
Draft-day: although most of rankings have him in the first round and while there are couple of teams in the late first that just badly need a high ceiling addition to winger prospect pool, I wouldn't be too surprised if he falls into an early second.
Ilya Samsonov (GK, 6'3"/201lbs; KHL: .500 SVS%, 5.50 GAA in 1 GP, MHL: .918 SVS%, 2.66 GAA in 18 GP; MHL PO: .937 SVS%, 2.83 GAA in 2 GP; U18 WJC: .934 SVS%, 2.67 GAA in 3 GP)
Big goalie with some nice reflexes, extremely calm and with a decent rebound control. I'm not too high on his mobility though, his lateral movements look too heavy to me (not like it can't be fixed though). Often is compared to a poor man's Vasilevskiy, but I recently thought that Ben Bishop actually might be an even better comparison.
Draft-day: again I will disagree with some rankings that have him in first round: it's hard to imagine that teams will select any goalie in the first this year, especially a Russian not named Vasilevskiy. Still, since this year is weak at goalies, he is the high priority selection for any team that need a fix in their goalie prospect pool, so the start of the second round sounds reasonable for me.
Alexander Dergachov (RW/C, 6'4"/226lbs; MHL: 10+29 in 45 GP, MHL PO: 11+7 in 19 GP, U20 WJC: 1+3 in 7 GP)
Big guy with a heavy shot. Works and fights hard to get and protect the puck, knows how to use his body very well (probably everyone remembers that back from U20). His frame is really of elite caliber - he looked like a man among boys in MHL play-off games that I've watched and there were some KHL guys playing in those games. Skating is an issue, although while watching his game at MHL play-offs I had a feeling he showed some progress there recently. Became a best goalscorer of MHL play-offs this season. In my opinion, his talents are better utilized at W than at C - playing at W we could expect that he becomes something like Kulemin, while for C position I don't think he got the required creativity.
Draft-day: I will agree with the rankings - bottom second round sound reasonable for a Russian with questionable skating. Upd: Looks like recently his draft stock has risen and he is now considered more as a potential upper/middle second round pick (I'm fine with that estimation too).
Nikita Korostelev (W, 6'1"/196lbs; OHL: 24+29 in 55 GP, OHL PO: 1+2 in 5 GP)
Good all-around player, really can't think of any weak spots except of inconsistency. Although his performance this season made me actually start to doubt if there are any elite spots, except his shot - it is pretty impressive. Anyway, for Korostelev there are much more questions than answers at this moment.
Draft-day: 3-rd round for a chance that there is something more than he has showed so far.
Yakov Trenin (C/LW, 6'2"/194lbs; QMJHL: 18+49 in 58 GP, QMJHL PO: 3+8 in 11 GP)
Hardworking physically gifted guy (topped the VO2max test together with Eichel, also had one of the top wingspan as measured at the combine) with some elite playmaking and vision (at that part he really reminds me of another Traktor hockey school graduate Kuznetsov), but with rather weak skating (and yes, it is weak even considering his size). The skating part makes him a risky prospect, since we actually expect Trenin to become even bigger and in that case he needs to put a lot of work in his skating. During this season Trenin benefited from being moved from W to C, which, in my opinion, is better for utilizing his playmaking talents.
Draft-day: skating is a big thing that can strengthen the Russian factor (Barbashev last year have fallen out of the first because of it), so I wouldn't be surprised if Trenin falls to 4-th round.
Mid-tier pool - very strong candidates for rounds 5-to-7, have a high chances to be drafted, but you never know:
Pavel Karnaukhov (C, 6'1"/196lbs; WHL: 20+22 in 69 GP; WHL PO: 6+5 in 17 GP; Hlinka Memorial: 0+1in 4 GP)
Strong athletic center that got some passing and finishing, also can be valuable on both ends of the ice. Didn't have a great debut season, was very inconsistent, although in this case I tend to think that it's just adaptation issues and that his raw talents were still clearly noticeable.
Kirill Kaprizov (RW, 5'10"/181lbs; KHL: 4+4 in 31 GP, MHL: 0+2 in 3 GP, MHL PO: 0+0 in 3 GP, U18 WJC: 1+3 in 4 GP, Hlinka Memorial: 5+2 in 4 GP)
Small guy (I would actually argue that 5'10" is that small) with physicality issues, but with a hard work and smartness he was able to progress during this season into a full-time KHL player. Got a good speed, hands and a lot of energy in his game. His stats might be not too impressive, but if we look back, we can see that there are some decent names that had similar or worse numbers in KHL at their draft year - Kuznetsov, Slepyshev, Buchnevich.
---↓Overagers↓---
Vladimir Tkachyov (LW, 5'10"/163lbs; QMJHL: 16+33 in 46 GP, QMJHL PO: 6+10 in 21 GP, Memorial Cup: 0+3 in 5 GP)
Again a very known guy here.
After some great pre-season games Tkachev looked unmotivated at the second half of the season, but I can't really blame him: voided contract, U20 NT cut, trade - that's too much for a single season. Anyway, if Edmonton doesn't select him at the later rounds I still think it will be plain stupid - they've seen more than enough of what Tkachev can do at the camp and I don't think that Tkachev will return there if they don't select him again. Also I think St. Louis might be interested to add a skilled chemistry guy to Barbashev, since they got two 5-th round picks.Vladislav Gavrikov (D, 6'2"/205lbs; KHL: 0+1 in 16 GP, KHL PO: 0+0 in 4 GP, VHL: 1+2 in 11 GP, MHL: 1+6 in 16 GP, MHL PO: 0+0 in 5 GP, U20 WJC: 0+0 in 7 GP)
U20 NT captain (who would've thought some time ago that he would take the C away from Barbashev?), who really led the team by example and deservingly was named the best defender of the U20 WJC and also made a debut in the main Russia NT. Strong stay-at-home defender, very good at positioning - should be drafted somewhere in mid to late rounds unless Russian factor gets really ugly this year.
Maxim Lazarev (W, 5'10"/170lbs; QMJHL: 36+44 in 65 GP, QMJHL PO: 0+1 in 4 GP)
One more guy that is not too physically gifted, but definitely got the offensive tools to compensate that - skating, finishing, creativity. In his second QMJHL season Lazarev improved his work rate, stayed away from injuries and also got some help from his long time buddy Svechnikov arriving at the off-season - all of this combined with his unquestionable offensive talent resulted in some really good production numbers. I think that it should be good enough to be drafted in round 5 or 6. Also I think that the team that gets Svechnikov might want to get also Lazarev, since it could solve a deficit at winger prospect pool for any team.
Vyacheslav Leschenko (C/W, 5'11/167lbs, KHL: 5+4 in 34 GP, MHL: 2+4 in 6 GP, MHL PO: 4+1 in 5 GP, U20 WJC: 3+2 in 7 GP)
I really was doubtful about Leschenko before the U20 WJC, but when it started he just washed away all my doubts - he got under opponent's skin, worked hard, wasn't afraid of anything fighting in front of the net - you really need those kind of players, who opponents just hate playing against, to win cups. He is not very big (listed at 5'11" and 167lbs), but he already plays much bigger than his size and if he gains some more strength I can imagine him becoming something like Leo Komarov.
Alexander Sharov (C, 6'2"/192lbs; KHL: 3+4 in 40 GP, MHL: 1+5 in 5 GP, MHL PO: 2+4 in 4 GP; U20 WJC: 4+1 in 7 GP)
High risk, but possibly high reward - that's definitely about Sharov: at WJC he showed that sometimes he can win games almost single-handedly, but also showed that he can be inconsistent even at this kind of short tournament. His skill set includes big body, elite skating and shot and I can imagine that teams could be willing to risk with a lower round pick for that.
Ziyat Paygin (D, 6'6"/209lbs; KHL: 1+1 in 33 GP, KHL PO: 0+0 in 1 GP, VHL: 0+1 in 3 GP, U20 WJC: 1+2 in 7 GP)
I really didn't want to separate Paygin and Yudin (put Paygin in the higher tier mostly because of the frame, also because he isn't contracted to KHL tycoons SKA): both are really strong, both got a powerful shot, still both looked kind of error prone though, but at the U20 WJC we could see that coach Bragin could definitely handle that. Both remind me of Nikita Nikitin - not a very consistent guy, but who still could do well under right circumstances.
HM's - a list of guys that I'm not very high on, but since they have a decent chance to get drafted in the later rounds, it would be unfair to ignore them:
Nikita Pavlychev (C, 6'6"/207lbs; USHL: 6+10 in 42 GP)
Size matters, it really does (and I remember in some interview he mentioned that he plans to bulk up even more), but for his size such a production level in junior league looks really worrisome to me.
Yegor Rykov (D, 6'0"/205lbs; MHL: 5+16 in 42 GP, MHL PO: 1+1 in 7 GP, U18 WJC: 0+0 in 5 PG, Hlinka Memorial: 1+1 in 4 GP)
Defender with some good tools (skating, body, passing), but really didn't impress me at his own end - really can't say that he is reliable - something like a poor man's Kulikov.
Maxim Tretyak (GK, 6'3"/229 lbs; MHL: .876 SVS%, 3.16 GAA in 25 GP; MHL PO: .913 SVS%, 2.12 GAA in 8 GP)
After a promising last year's U18 WJC Tretyak had a really bad season at MHL (ok, play-offs were rather good), but we have to consider the bloodline factor here: 'Montreal Canadians select Tretyak at round seven' sounds good and whatever sounds good is good for marketing. And yes, also he is big, and nowadays big goalies are considered to be valuable.
Dmitry Zhukenov (C, 5'11"/165lbs; MHL: 3+16 in 35 GP, MHL PO: 0+2 in 4 GP, U18 WJC: 3+3 in 5 GP, Hlinka Memorial: 1+4 in 5 PG)
Good playmaking center, hard working, but not sure if there is actually something good enough to become a future NHL-er. The reason why he is in this list is because there are strong rumors that he is moving to CHL this summer and for Russian players that usually means that some team is ready to draft him if he will come over immediately.
---↓Overagers↓---
Dmitri Yudin (D, 6'2"/185lbs; KHL: 1+6 in 47 GP, KHL PO: 0+0 in 9 GP, U20 WJC: 1+1 in 7 GP, MHL PO: 0+1 in 4 GP)
(I'll just do a little copy/pasting here.
) I really didn't want to separate Paygin and Yudin (put Paygin in the higher tier mostly because of the frame, also because he isn't contracted with KHL tycoons SKA): both are really strong, both got a powerful shot, still both looked kind of error prone though, but at the U20 WJC we could see that coach Bragin could definitely handle that. Both remind me of Nikita Nikitin - not a very consistent guy, but who still could do well under right circumstances.Damir Sharipzyanov (D, 6'1"/203lbs; OHL: 9+25 in 65 GP; OHL PO: 1+2 in 5 GP)
Classical two-way defender, great skater, good at puck distribution, reliable, consistent and is finally having a strong season - I think with that kind of properties he even could go as high as 4-th round (ok, this year is too strong) even though he didn't make the U20 WJC squad.
Wild-cards - prospects I really like, but with a not very high chance to get drafted this time, although maybe someone will be willing to risk with a 7-th round pick:
Sergei Zborovsky (D, 6'4"/190lbs; WHL: 3+16 in 71 GP, WHL PO: 0+1 in 6 GP)
While in several reports I have read that there might be nothing special about him, I tend to disagree - that kind of combination of a great frame and decent skating looks very promising, it looks to me that he will be able to gain some additional strength without any problems. Also I think that he hasn't shown everything in terms of offensive production yet, since it looks like he knows how to pass the puck. While often he looked lost and had issues with adapting to WHL game, his decision making was good and even very good if we remember that it is basically his debut year in junior hockey. Really reminds me of some of Russian defenders back from 90's - guys like Zhitnik and Kravchuk.
Kirill Pilipenko (RW, 5'10"/194lbs; MHL: 17+20 in 38 GP; MHL PO: 3+4 in 7 GP)
Pilipenko was always considered one of the most talented 1996 born players and I think he still is when healthy. It's a shame that after a great last year's U18 WJC, this season has been an injury nightmare for him. He reminds me of Kucherov (and it has no relation to recent Kucherov hype), except maybe the elite release and the enormous ability to find chemistry with any partners that Kucherov has (Pilipenko is also fine in those components, just not elite). Everything else is there: his hands are just golden, IQ, flair, vision, skating and shooting are also good. He is also not shy to play some defense and is great at using his stick to rob opponents Datsyukian style. Weak spots are body usage and, as already mentioned, injury history (missed something like a half year recently). I can say that to me his game is a joy to watch, and I rarely say those kind of things about junior hockey, so I really hope that the injury troubles won't take that away.
---↓Overagers↓---
Denis Kostin (GK, 6'1"/187lbs; KHL: 2.17 GAA, .923 SVS% in 18 GP, KHL PO: 2.10 GAA, .913 SVS% in 7 GP, MHL PO: 4.10 GAA, .840 SVS% in 1 GP)
Kostin didn't look good at U20 NT games, but he is definitely good playing at KHL - started the season as a promising back-up, he steadily pushed experienced Barulin out of his safe starter place. Good goalie skills overall, can't think of any weak spots, but lacks consistency, although he looks very confident when he's got his game going. Still got a lot of work in front of him, but it certainly doesn't look like he would be afraid of it. At the end of the day he might get selected, since it shouldn't be a very strong draft for goalies and not a lot of goalie prospects were performing like that in KHL at the age of 19.
Ivan Fischenko (C/RW, 6'2"/201lbs; KHL: 1+2 in 21 GP, KHL PO: 1+1 in 12 GP, VHL: 4+3 in 5 GP, MHL: 0+1 in 1 GP, U20 WJC: 0+1 in 7 GP)
Fischenko is often undeservingly forgotten in U20 NT success, while he was instrumental there - his strong, hard-working, clever and defensively reliable game has made team's 4-th line into a real shut-down line, also he was doing really well on the penalty kill. He got rewarded though: after WJC he became an undisputable KHL first team player and also already debuted at Russia NT.
Nikolai Glukhov (D, 6'3"/183lbs; KHL: 0+2 in 35 GP, KHL PO: 0+1 in 12 GP, MHL: 4+9 in 13 GP)
At first I didn't plan to include Glukhov in the list, since he didn't make the final U20 NT roster, but this guy got a rather valuable asset - he is a right-handed puckmoving defender and there's a certain fashion (sometimes I even tend to call it a 'fetish'
) for players like that in NHL now, not to mention that he has already got experience at KHL level. The reason why he didn't make U20 NT, in my opinion, is that he kind of lacks physicality and needs to get stronger, but recently Nesterov's example showed us that it's not really hard to fix that.So comparing to my 'Svechnikov and some other guys' expectations at the start of the season, things really got much more interesting at the end. Not like I'm good at predictions, but my opinion is that at the end of the day something like 13 Russians could get drafted, and while it is the same number like last year, this draft is much stronger, so that would be a very good result.
And yes, don't be shy to post any corrections, questions, additions, rankings, news, opinions, expectations and other stuff related to the topic, those are very welcome.
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Actually I'm not too surprised, since as I already noticed in the OP he really looked huge comparing to other MHL guys.
