It's been some time after the draft now and I was too busy to make a write-up earlier, but I hope it is better late than never.
Selections:
Ivan Provorov - at least no surprises here, at #7 to Philadelphia, everyone is happy, don't know if I should add anything here, so I won't.
Already signed ELC, so I think we can expect at least 9 NHL games for him in the foreseeable future.
Denis Guryanov - and here is a surprise (and not only for me I believe), which might need some comment. Dallas obviously needed RW and Guryanov is clearly best RW in terms of upside, so they decided to go for it. Why at 12? I think Dallas wouldn't mind trading down a little bit, but it's obviously not always possible. I find it rather ironic that I don't like both Nichushkin's and Guryanov's style of play and they both end up in Dallas.
Anyway, Guryanov got 2 more contract years in KHL and I don't think he will cross the pond earlier than that.
Yevgeni Svechnikov - classic BPA pick by Detroit. Failed a little bit because of Guryanov and Boston, but apart from that he got picked where he should be. By the way, is Svechnikov (as 1996 born) eligible to play for Grand Rapids in 2016-2017?
Ilya Samsonov - to me his draft position is clearly a sign that this draft is not that strong as it was hyped. Washington decided he is a BPA, and it's hard not to agree that at least he was one of those at 22. At first thought it doesn't sound too logical for Capitals - goalie, who is something like 5 years away (at best) from making Washington roster, but I don't think anyone else at #22 could help Capitals immediately and also seriously doubt that Holtby can keep up this season's level of play five years from now.
Yakov Trenin - looks like a surprise, but again, we're looking at Nashville addressing their needs here: they're best C prospect is Kamenev and his offensive upside looks decent, but not much more and Trenin, if he gets his skating to a decent level, can be projected as a creative Top6 center. Already signed ELC with Nashville. Very strong draft picks by Nashville this year by the way.
Alexander Dergachyov - I was predicting a second round, but looks like a little bit of Russian factor here: contract with KHL tycoons SKA could've scared some teams off. Although I also think that there was not only that: judging by his offensive potential he looks more like a bottom-six/role player guy than a top 6 center. Dergachyov is expected to play at CHL next season, so if some teams missed him because of KHL fears, those should learn how to contact players (and I'm pretty sure LA did).
Sergei Zborovskiy - really glad that I wasn't the only one, who liked this guy. Why at third round? Rangers drafted forwards with their first two picks, clearly needed a defender then and (surprise!!) at #79 there wasn't a big choice of defenders anymore (deep and strong draft, eh?), so, if Rangers see similar things to what I see in him, 3-rd round pick is pretty legit.
Andrei Mironov -Wow! I mean, I didn't even know he is available for draft after being passed 3 times before (btw, can someone, please, clarify to me, what is the max draft age for European players?). Motivation is pretty easy here: Colorado defense is legendary bad (including the prospect pool) and Mironov already has ton of KHL experience and earned a reputation as a strong and responsible defender and even got some Russia NT experience as well. Also I somehow think that this could be the case when all of remaining 2 years of KHL contract might be not fully served. And yes, btw, Colorado didn't pick Russians since 2004.
Mikhail Vorobyov - this year's Pavel Kraskovsky: I didn't thought that those kind of players are in high demand by NHL teams, but looks like I was wrong. Vorobyov had a great U18 centering Guryanov and showing that he can be great at doing all the dirty work like important faceoffs and winning the puck for Guryanov. 4-th round seems really reasonable actually, by the way, I think Flyers did well this draft (and not because they drafted a lot of Russians).
Dmitri Zhukenov - as it was mentioned, before the draft he already expressed his desire to move to CHL, so I think it influenced Vancouver's desire to pick him. With all being said about KHL being a good place for development, many teams still prefer a bird in hand.
Kirill Kaprizov - KHL experience is a valuable thing, it shows that a player can be competitive at pro level, which is very important for undersized players (yes, something to think about for small players who are leaving for CHL hoping to increase their draft stock). First Russian pick for Minnesota since 2004.
Pavel Karnaukhov - probably Flames scouts had a lot of chances to see him, since he played for Hitmen, so I believe they saw something similar to what I did see in him - possibly great upside hurt by the inconsistency.
Vladislav Gavrikov - Columbus was desperate to improve defender prospect pool - spent 6 picks on defenders and Gavrikov definitely had one of the highest values from players available at 6-th round, so that finally looks as some common sense from NHL teams.
He is an overager, with KHL contract and still haven't proven anything on KHL level - so 6-th round is no surprise to me and I don't consider that as falling. Columbus didn't select Russians since Filatov in 2008, by the way.
Sergei Boikov - heard some good things about him this year, but haven't actually seen him, probably Colorado scouts have seen much more of him and liked what they saw. But yes, this pick is again totally related to Colorado defender situation.
Nikita Korostelev - biggest mystery of the draft, but let's take a closer look to that. If we look at selections overall, it is very noticeable to me that this year most teams were rather strictly bound to pick players according to their needs and not a BPA. Therefore teams that needed to add potential Top6 wingers to the prospect pool have done it in the upper 3 rounds (and it isn't actually too surprising to me that Korostelev failed out of top 3 rounds). And since rounds 4-6 were used mostly to add some D, GK and muscles, there was no place for Korostelev there too.
Ivan Fedotov - solid MHL stats, 6'6" size and Flyers in need of GK prospects - sounds like a logical match.
Nikita Pavlychev- "Picking a 6'7" guy, who is a huge fan of your team in 7-th round" - don't you think that this is how GMs imagine a perfect draft pick nowadays?
Ziyat Paygin - if you're wandering, what it takes to break the Russian factor, the answer is pretty simple: 6'6". GMs love the size and this love is stronger than the Russian factor fear.
Unselected:
Size matters group (Vladimir Tkachev, Maxim Lazarev, Kirill Pilipenko) - yes, the good old size factor is a big thing. If for Tkachev and Pilipenko this season wasn't too good, then for Lazarev being not picked there is no other explanation than the size. It's a shame though, since Lazarev has competitiveness just written all over him.
Rusian factor group - U20 (Sharov, Leschenko, Yudin, etc) - NHL teams are still cautious about KHL based players, especially about those, who are contracted to KHL tycoons like SKA and CSKA. For me, the biggest surprise here is that Denis Kostin went undrafted, as a lot of goalies were drafted in the lower rounds.
Conclusions:
18 Russian players drafted in total - Russian factor has become weaker, but is still there, but now it is in different form again - NHL teams are trying to avoid picking players contracted to richer KHL teams. It is interesting that the total number can change over time, since both Pavel Karnaukhov (eligible to play for both Russia and Belarus) and Dennis Yan (eligible to play for both USA and Russia) stated that they haven't decided on their final eligibility.
KHL experience is a valuable thing for increasing the draft stock though - it is a clear sign that a prospect is ready for something more than the junior hockey.
While I have thought that size factor might become weaker after success of Gaudreau, Kucherov and Johnson, it actually became even stronger. Especially for goalies - if earlier it was like 'it is good for goalie to be big', now it is transformed to 'goalie must be big' (you can ask Denis Godla about it). But again, Kaprizov's example showed that KHL experience might compensate the lack of size.
At the first thought it seemed that the stronger draft (although I still have a feeling that it wasn't as strong as it was hyped) would make teams go for BPA more often, but it actually went the other way around: teams were more addressing their needs when picking a player. It has some logic actually - if you're able to get a strong player for the problematic prospect pool position, it can be a jack-pot basically. Although I can understand that a lot of fans are rather disappointed by this approach, as everyone wants to see their teams pick more flashier players.
And, what seems more importantly to me, somehow I don't really think that a lot of serious conclusions can be made after this draft (at least not by this draft alone), I think in this way it definitely can be considered a special draft.
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