Interesting analysis against Austria considering that the last time the two sides met in 2013, Austria won fairly easily 6-3. It's hard to tell because international teams meet so rarely. The last time Latvia beat Austria (2011), Zemgus Girgensons was in the USHL, Kaspars Daugavins had never played in the NHL, and Sandis Ozolins was still in fine shape in the KHL. On the other side, Michael Raffl hadn't left the EBEL for the Allsvenskan, no one had heard of an AHL kid named Brian Lebler, and Thomas Hundertpfund was still a defenseman for KAC. The dissimilarities are endless. As for France, I think Latvia should be favored for that game. France has built a lot of confidence off of success against the Olympic year teams (comprised of rookies and domestic players) of bigger nations but in reality Olympic year success means little and Latvia's physical play and general continuity should be enough to make them the slight favorite.
The Oilers defeated the New York Rangers once in the regular season with relative ease. I guess they should be in the Stanley Cup play-offs instead of the Rangers, right?
The score in a single game means very little. First of all, chance plays a major role in the short-term. Second, Latvia clearly dominated Austria in that 3-6 loss both in terms of possession and the number of shots and chances. So, no, they didn't win 'fairly easily'. It was essentially a fluke win. Third, Girgensons has mostly been a 3rd line player in the Latvian national team. Daugavins made his debut in the NHL in 2009/10. The last time Ozolins played in the World Champs was 2002.
The overall quality of the Latvian and Austrian hockey programmes hasn't changed that much over the years. The emergence of an AHL/ECHL guy in Lebler doesn't change anything in that respect.
As for continuity in the way we play the game, there's probably not going to be a whole lot of it. I've already mentioned it several times in this thread - we've got a new, incompetent coach, who favors an old-school East-West type of a game. Just to give you an example, Roberts Bukarts (who is a thoroughly mediocre forward, and is mostly known for being a soft, lazy, non-contributing zero in defence) has just been placed in a 1st line slot along with Sprukts and M. Redlihs.
Bukarts was sent down by Riga Dinamo to their farm team HK Liepaja, where he played in the play-offs of the Latvian domestic league, which is a semi-pro/amateur league. And he didn't look better than his linemates there.
There are only 2 defensemen and 7 or 8 forwards (4 of whom are bottom 6 scrubs) available from the Sochi line-up, so the continuity part is probably going to be quite problematic for us. And, obviously, our WC roster is worse than in the Olympic year.
It's a different team and a different coach with a different approach, so I also don't agree with your underlying argument as to why we should be the favorites against France. I don't think we are and at the same time I'm not really sure what to expect. There's a lot of unknowns and a lot of room for improvement, but as of this point and time, things are looking pretty bleak for the Latvian national team.
My bad, my bad.
