Prospect Info: 2014 NHL Draft / Pick #118 - Igor Shestyorkin (G) - Part III

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Regarding the stats--they look phenomenal. However, it should be kept in context. And this is no knock on Igor--he's at or near the top in pretty much everything. But this isn't like Tim Thomas posting the .938 SV% that one year for Boston.

There is a guy, Lars Johansson, who was a decent-to-good goaltender in the Allsvenkan and SHL. He currently leads the league with a .954 SV% and 0.98 GAA in 20 games. Igor is second with a .947 SV% in 24 games. The Avtomobilist goalie, who has played 41 games, is third at .944. Sorokin, who splits time with Johansson, is at .942 in 33 games with a 1.17 GAA. Then Magnus Hellberg is fifth, at .937 in 26 games. All of those players have between 7-9 shutouts each. They all play for the top three teams in the league. The KHL is absurdly top-heavy (why I always question when people say it's "way better than" certain other leagues) and the numbers of the guys on the top teams are a bit skewed.

However, even if you look beyond those five, there are still 11 guys with a SV% over .930 and 21 guys over .920. Nine guys have a GAA of 2.00 or under. There are ten guys with five shutouts or more. Just to contrast, the NHL has two players with a SV% at or over .930 (.930 and .931) and only eight guys at or above .920. Only Fleury has more than five shutouts--no one else has more than three. Most KHL teams have played about 2-4 more games than most NHL teams, but that obviously won't change much.

Again, this isn't a knock on Igor. He is clearly one of the best goaltenders in the KHL, even if his numbers are somewhat inflated playing for SKA (just like Sorokin and those others I listed). I just feel like some people see the raw numbers and not the context, which is that the KHL produces stupid goaltending numbers, especially among the guys on the top teams. I don't want people to expect Igor to come over and start post like a .930, 1.80 line in the next couple years; if he does that's awesome, but don't expect it because the KHL is a weird league.

Agree with this assessment. It doesn't take anything away from Shestyorkin's performance, but we have to look at it in the context of him playing for SKA.

A guy like Demchenko who plays for Traktor is putting up a sv% of .931 on a team

Shestyorkin has seen 551 shots on goal in 24 games (22.9 avg)
Demchenko has seen 1117 shots on goal in 38 games (29.3 avg)

I think Demchenko deserves a lot of credit for Traktor being even in a play off spot.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Regarding the stats--they look phenomenal. However, it should be kept in context. And this is no knock on Igor--he's at or near the top in pretty much everything. But this isn't like Tim Thomas posting the .938 SV% that one year for Boston.

There is a guy, Lars Johansson, who was a decent-to-good goaltender in the Allsvenkan and SHL. He currently leads the league with a .954 SV% and 0.98 GAA in 20 games. Igor is second with a .947 SV% in 24 games. The Avtomobilist goalie, who has played 41 games, is third at .944. Sorokin, who splits time with Johansson, is at .942 in 33 games with a 1.17 GAA. Then Magnus Hellberg is fifth, at .937 in 26 games. All of those players have between 7-9 shutouts each. They all play for the top three teams in the league. The KHL is absurdly top-heavy (why I always question when people say it's "way better than" certain other leagues) and the numbers of the guys on the top teams are a bit skewed.

However, even if you look beyond those five, there are still 11 guys with a SV% over .930 and 21 guys over .920. Nine guys have a GAA of 2.00 or under. There are ten guys with five shutouts or more. Just to contrast, the NHL has two players with a SV% at or over .930 (.930 and .931) and only eight guys at or above .920. Only Fleury has more than five shutouts--no one else has more than three. Most KHL teams have played about 2-4 more games than most NHL teams, but that obviously won't change much.

Again, this isn't a knock on Igor. He is clearly one of the best goaltenders in the KHL, even if his numbers are somewhat inflated playing for SKA (just like Sorokin and those others I listed). I just feel like some people see the raw numbers and not the context, which is that the KHL produces stupid goaltending numbers, especially among the guys on the top teams. I don't want people to expect Igor to come over and start post like a .930, 1.80 line in the next couple years; if he does that's awesome, but don't expect it because the KHL is a weird league.

My expectations for Igor are extremely tempered bc of all of this. I've been dying to see him against a lot more competition away from SKA. I'm going to be completely unsurprised if it turns out he simply isn't an All Star but is instead a serviceable -above average starter for a few years (Still phenomenal for a 4th rounder)

 

[haveandare]

He’s like the single player equivalent of Tampa Bay for me. His stats look great but I’m just not interested in the fact that he’s still killing it in the khl because he’s already proven he can multiple times. The only thing that matters now is if he can transition to the nhl and be good here.

 

[nyr2k2]

Stopped 23 of 24 for the W.

 

[offdacrossbar]

91 khl games last 3 yrs

1.5 gaa

.940 s%

comrade is good.

 

[nyr2k2]

He's missed 3 straight with an injury. Hope it doesn't cost him a chance to start games in the playoffs.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

He's missed 3 straight with an injury. Hope it doesn't cost him a chance to start games in the playoffs.

Any word what the injury is?

 

[kovazub94]

Today a new came out from a relatively reliable Russian sports news site that provides another indirect evidence that Shesterkin will be coming over to NA for 2019-2020 season. The article in the link mentions that it's expected that in the offseason Sochi will trade Kochetkov - the Russian goalie from recent WJC - to SKA. The obvious conclusion is that SKA is preparing for Shesterkin's departure.

Лучший вратарь МЧМ-2019 Кочетков в межсезонье может перейти из "Сочи" в СКА - Спорт РИА Новости, 05.02.2019

 

[The Crypto Guy]

So we shouldn't expect him to get many, if any, games in the playoffs.

 

[millencolin487]

I really hope this guy actually comes over.

 

[broadwayblue]

I really hope this guy actually comes over.

Not concerned about that. I just hope he's as good as we think he can be.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I really hope this guy actually comes over.

He's about as certain as a lock as one can be.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Getting feet wet in the AHL from October to December and splitting starts with Hank starting in January 2020 sounds about right to me.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Getting feet wet in the AHL from October to December and splitting starts with Hank starting in January 2020 sounds about right to me.

Maybe, but I can also see a scenario where he wins the backup spot in camp and plays 40/60 with Hank. And i think this is what happens.

 

[Ola]

He's about as certain as a lock as one can be.

Why? You have zero comparables. SKA is like the New York Yankees at their very peak of European hockey. SKA have can have all-star defenders as 8-9 Ds. Like a NHL team having OEL as a 8th defender. Stamkos and AO on the 4th line.

So many coaches over the years have been presented with the option to go with Shestyorkin or another goalie for an imporant game -- and 95% of the time someone else than Shesty gets the nod.

I am a big Shesty fan, no doubt he was a great pick, and he has a lot of potential. I know many disagree, but I don't see the point with totally running up the expectations with this guy. I remember when that was done with Bereglazov. Nobody have seen Shesty play for a team (or at least roster) that isn't a heck of a lot better than the team on the other side for more than an odd game here and there -- per season. 3-4 times in his entire career? Or?

There are uncertainties too.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Why? You have zero comparables. SKA is like the New York Yankees at their very peak of European hockey. SKA have can have all-star defenders as 8-9 Ds. Like a NHL team having OEL as a 8th defender. Stamkos and AO on the 4th line.

So many coaches over the years have been presented with the option to go with Shestyorkin or another goalie for an imporant game -- and 95% of the time someone else than Shesty gets the nod.

I am a big Shesty fan, no doubt he was a great pick, and he has a lot of potential. I know many disagree, but I don't see the point with totally running up the expectations with this guy. I remember when that was done with Bereglazov. Nobody have seen Shesty play for a team (or at least roster) that isn't a heck of a lot better than the team on the other side for more than an odd game here and there -- per season. 3-4 times in his entire career? Or?

There are uncertainties too.

He's said it over and over, and the team is already preparing for his exit..not sure how much more you can ask for while he's under contract. He's coming over, and it's basically a 100% lock.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

He's said it over and over, and the team is already preparing for his exit..not sure how much more you can ask for while he's under contract. He's coming over, and it's basically a 100% lock.

It's not about asking for more. It's about acknowledging that there are huge questions marks still. You said he's a lock but he's a lock to do what exactly? Come to NA? I can agree but then what? That's what people are wondering about. Will he be a franchise goalie? An above average starter? A perennial all star?

That's all very much up in the air.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

It's not about asking for more. It's about acknowledging that there are huge questions marks still. You said he's a lock but he's a lock to do what exactly? Come to NA? I can agree but then what? That's what people are wondering about. Will he be a franchise goalie? An above average starter? A perennial all star?

That's all very much up in the air.

Who knows how good he will be, I wasn't answering that, just the fact that he will be coming over.

 

[nyr2k2]

Based on the way they've used him this year, and done everything possible to keep him fresh, you have to think the team really likes Gerogiev. So, unless he's included in a deal (which I doubt, because what's his value?), then he's going to be in the mix as well. Obviously Shesterkin, unless he shows otherwise, is going to be given a lot of opportunities, but I think he'll be splitting time not just with Hank, but also Georgiev.

Also, if we make moves in the offseason to start "ending" the rebuild--like signing some legitimate free agents--then I would expect Henrik to still get 55-60 starts or so. But I have no idea if that will happen or not.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Who knows how good he will be, I wasn't answering that, just the fact that he will be coming over.

You said "What more can you ask". Seemed like you were saying that in regards to evaluating his projection since that's what Ola was talking about.


Ola wasn't criticizing him necessarily for not playing, just pointing out that his time is constantly limited. I got the feeling he was noting that some of that limited time may not necessarily only be about contract issues which is a fair point to raise since Igor has been passed over for other teams and competitions as well (unless Im tired and remembering wrong, sorry if I am). Maybe that's all directly related to his contract (like the all star snub). Maybe he's just not that much better than other options. The stats of the other starters certainly lends credence to that idea.

Idk. I just worry, probably too much.

 

[kovazub94]

Why? You have zero comparables. SKA is like the New York Yankees at their very peak of European hockey. SKA have can have all-star defenders as 8-9 Ds. Like a NHL team having OEL as a 8th defender. Stamkos and AO on the 4th line.

So many coaches over the years have been presented with the option to go with Shestyorkin or another goalie for an imporant game -- and 95% of the time someone else than Shesty gets the nod.

I am a big Shesty fan, no doubt he was a great pick, and he has a lot of potential. I know many disagree, but I don't see the point with totally running up the expectations with this guy. I remember when that was done with Bereglazov. Nobody have seen Shesty play for a team (or at least roster) that isn't a heck of a lot better than the team on the other side for more than an odd game here and there -- per season. 3-4 times in his entire career? Or?

There are uncertainties too.

Ola, Your post starts off questioning whether Shesterkin will be coming over next season but then switches to expectations / uncertainties around his performance once he's here. I'm sure you understand there's a difference.

 

[kovazub94]

Based on the way they've used him this year, and done everything possible to keep him fresh, you have to think the team really likes Gerogiev. So, unless he's included in a deal (which I doubt, because what's his value?), then he's going to be in the mix as well. Obviously Shesterkin, unless he shows otherwise, is going to be given a lot of opportunities, but I think he'll be splitting time not just with Hank, but also Georgiev.

Also, if we make moves in the offseason to start "ending" the rebuild--like signing some legitimate free agents--then I would expect Henrik to still get 55-60 starts or so. But I have no idea if that will happen or not.

This past offseason we questioned how the FO would handle Georgiev and I'd say they did a pretty good job taking advantage of NHL and AHL schedules. Adding Shesterkin to the mix adds a lot more complexities for next season but now we should have faith that they will figure it out too. Still I have a difficult time believing that Georgiev will last / be a part of the organization past the 2019-2020 season at most. Which is a shame because I'd love to keep the Russian goalie tandem after Lundqvist retires.

 

[EdJovanovski]

I really hope this guy actually comes over.

He will. Lundqvist is his idol and he watches Rangers games

 

[EdJovanovski]

Regarding the stats--they look phenomenal. However, it should be kept in context. And this is no knock on Igor--he's at or near the top in pretty much everything. But this isn't like Tim Thomas posting the .938 SV% that one year for Boston.

There is a guy, Lars Johansson, who was a decent-to-good goaltender in the Allsvenkan and SHL. He currently leads the league with a .954 SV% and 0.98 GAA in 20 games. Igor is second with a .947 SV% in 24 games. The Avtomobilist goalie, who has played 41 games, is third at .944. Sorokin, who splits time with Johansson, is at .942 in 33 games with a 1.17 GAA. Then Magnus Hellberg is fifth, at .937 in 26 games. All of those players have between 7-9 shutouts each. They all play for the top three teams in the league. The KHL is absurdly top-heavy (why I always question when people say it's "way better than" certain other leagues) and the numbers of the guys on the top teams are a bit skewed.

However, even if you look beyond those five, there are still 11 guys with a SV% over .930 and 21 guys over .920. Nine guys have a GAA of 2.00 or under. There are ten guys with five shutouts or more. Just to contrast, the NHL has two players with a SV% at or over .930 (.930 and .931) and only eight guys at or above .920. Only Fleury has more than five shutouts--no one else has more than three. Most KHL teams have played about 2-4 more games than most NHL teams, but that obviously won't change much.

Again, this isn't a knock on Igor. He is clearly one of the best goaltenders in the KHL, even if his numbers are somewhat inflated playing for SKA (just like Sorokin and those others I listed). I just feel like some people see the raw numbers and not the context, which is that the KHL produces stupid goaltending numbers, especially among the guys on the top teams. I don't want people to expect Igor to come over and start post like a .930, 1.80 line in the next couple years; if he does that's awesome, but don't expect it because the KHL is a weird league.

It’s obvious we shouldn’t expect his stats to be as good in the NHL as KHL, but it should still be expected that he’ll be a star goalie. He is the best goalie prospect on the planet