Speculation: 2014 - 2015 New York Rangers :: Roster building / proposal thread

[BobMarleyNYR]

Because second round picks become NHLers 20% of the time for the average team. The Rangers are at almost 50-50. To double the league average is a huge accomplishment.

This is not recognized by the fans due to their ignorance, as they expect a #10 to be a star (no star drafted at #10 since the 1980s), a late first to be top-6 (50-50 NHL odds, maybe even a bit worse) and a second rounder to be at least an above average third liner (1 in 5 odds of ever wearing an NHL jersey).

That's why getting bums like Stepan, Anisimov and Dubinsky in the second round seems like such a disappointment.

Sorry for my "ignorance."

I never said those guys were bums, but I don't see why you guys thin it's "good enough," look at Boston, LA, Ssan Jose, Anaheim, Chicago--that's the only way to build winners. Granted they all tanked long-term, but if the Rangers are not drafting elite talent, I don't see how you guys fool yourself into thinking we're drafting well.

 

[Beacon]

Sorry for my "ignorance."

I never said those guys were bums, but I don't see why you guys thin it's "good enough," look at Boston, LA, Ssan Jose, Anaheim, Chicago--that's the only way to build winners. Granted they all tanked long-term, but if the Rangers are not drafting elite talent, I don't see how you guys fool yourself into thinking we're drafting well.

Your ignorance is excused. Proving it further with the rest of the post was unnecessary.

 

[RangerBoy]

One of the points that New York Ranger head coach Alain Vigneault emphasized at the team’s “breakup day†Monday was that he is looking for some young prospects to spark the team’s roster next year. Even though the Rangers have a strong core of key players who are still in the prime of their careers, Vigneault feels as though an infusion of young legs is critical for his club to push itself over the top.

“You have to,†Vigneault said to the assembled media of bringing prospects along. “Just look at L.A. Probably one of, if not their most, effective line was the one with the two kids (Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson) and (Jeff) Carter. You’ve got bring some youth. Veterans help them out. They bring you enthusiasm. You have to do that every year and, hopefully, we’re going to have a couple guys pushing at the door, knocking to get into our dressing room.â€

http://bobcrawfordscorner.wordpress.com/2014/06/17/vigneault-youve-got-to-bring-some-youth/

JT Miller. He gets the opportunity to establish himself in the NHL. Miller signs a 2 year bridge contract next summer. Gives the Rangers 3 years of cheap service. Miller is not arbitration eligible next summer.

Lindberg. Fast. There will be open roster spots to compete for.

McIlrath and Allen begin the season in the AHL. No roster spots open.

Re-sign Staal.

Re-sign Moore to a 2 year bridge deal. Hopefully,Moore has a better year. Klein will be his partner. Moore was better after Klein was acquired. Moore was better when he returned from his concussion. Ulf Samuelsson had him watch a game in Vancouver and take notes. Moore was better after that. Skjei turns pro after this coming season. Most players need three years of college. McDonagh and Shattenkirk spent three years in school before turning pro. They spent 1/2 a season in the AHL. Moore plays better. Skjei develops. The Rangers can trade Moore in the future.

Buchnevich's KHL contract expires after this coming season. The Rangers need to get him signed and into North America for 15-16.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Your ignorance is excused. Proving it further with the rest of the post was unnecessary.

There's little more ignorant than a post like this

If you take issue with what I'm saying, don't be a highbrow puke about it, and use that incredible wit and cleverness to explain why I'm wrong.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Buchnevich is still very much a boom or bust player. He's either in the Rangers' top 9 in 2015 or he stays in Russia. He won't come over to play in the AHL.

Duclair will have a chance to be "the guy" in Quebec this year. Should be on the top 6 of Canada's WJC squad. That'll be good experience.

The best we can hope for from both of these guys is that they stay healthy for a full season.

I think Kristo makes the team out of camp. Are there any advanced stat junkies reading this that know what his AHL possession stats are like?

 

[Vidic15*]

Buchnevich is still very much a boom or bust player. He's either in the Rangers' top 9 in 2015 or he stays in Russia. He won't come over to play in the AHL.

Duclair will have a chance to be "the guy" in Quebec this year. Should be on the top 6 of Canada's WJC squad. That'll be good experience.

The best we can hope for from both of these guys is that they stay healthy for a full season.

I think Kristo makes the team out of camp. Are there any advanced stat junkies reading this that know what his AHL possession stats are like?

I would normally agree with you there, but ever since I heard he came over himself to train in Jersey I think he is really committed to playing for the Rangers.

 

[Emptyvoid]

http://bobcrawfordscorner.wordpress.com/2014/06/17/vigneault-youve-got-to-bring-some-youth/

JT Miller. He gets the opportunity to establish himself in the NHL. Miller signs a 2 year bridge contract next summer. Gives the Rangers 3 years of cheap service. Miller is not arbitration eligible next summer.

Lindberg. Fast. There will be open roster spots to compete for.

McIlrath and Allen begin the season in the AHL. No roster spots open.

Re-sign Staal.

Re-sign Moore to a 2 year bridge deal. Hopefully,Moore has a better year. Klein will be his partner. Moore was better after Klein was acquired. Moore was better when he returned from his concussion. Ulf Samuelsson had him watch a game in Vancouver and take notes. Moore was better after that. Skjei turns pro after this coming season. Most players need three years of college. McDonagh and Shattenkirk spent three years in school before turning pro. They spent 1/2 a season in the AHL. Moore plays better. Skjei develops. The Rangers can trade Moore in the future.

Buchnevich's KHL contract expires after this coming season. The Rangers need to get him signed and into North America for 15-16.

Curious on your reasoning and thoughts of why to trade Moore over Staal in the future?

 

[eco's bones]

The Rangers have options with their defense over the next couple years. They can trade either Staal or Moore. Skjei should be ready at least by 2015-16. He'll be a cheaper ELC contract. If they need the cash or want to bring in a top 3-5 forward they move Staal. A lot is going to depend on the season he's having and a lot is going to depend on how affordable his next contract is.

Moore also needs to improve. He's not a baby anymore. He's had more than a full NHL season and he's been to the finals and he has the tools--the size, the strength, the skating. The time is now for him and he needs to take it to another level. Next year he's more under the microscope. Bottom pairing isn't good enough. He needs to push Staal for ice time.

 

[Beacon]

There's little more ignorant than a post like this

If you take issue with what I'm saying, don't be a highbrow puke about it, and use that incredible wit and cleverness to explain why I'm wrong.

There's no need for me to do it. You disproved your own argument when you wrote that the very reason behind teams like Chicago being able to get top-end talent is them tanking and getting #1 overall draft picks. Seeing as we've never done that, you can't compare a #20 pick to a #1 pick. But if you compare our draft picks to the previous 20-25 selections in the same exact position, our draftee is consistently better than the average player chose in the same exact spot.

 

[Zil]

In case anyone was wondering:

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/6/27/5845256/nhl-draft-2014-analysis-luck/in/5614765

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

In case anyone was wondering:

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/6/27/5845256/nhl-draft-2014-analysis-luck/in/5614765

I was looking at hockeydb a few weeks ago and just seeing the drafts, and who was picked and who stuck, gives creedance to the idea that even the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and especially the 1st, are NOT as much of a crapshoot as many of you say, especially not '03, were we ****ed up rounds 1, 2 and 3.

 

[Beacon]

Playing 100 games doesn't make you an NHLer. Brandon Segal played more than 100 games and Kris Newbury almost that much. Going back in time, the Pack coach played about 100 NHL games, as did his teammates Max Galanov and Peter Ferraro. Nobody regards them as NHLers, and Ferraro is considered a bad first round bust.

To be an NHLer, you should at least stick around for 4-5 seasons. At least have a career like Darroll Powe. Having a few call ups when injuries hit badly isn't a sign that you are an NHLer.

 

[TheTakedown]

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Chris Kreider ($1.650m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Rick Nash ($7.800m) / Derick Brassard ($3.900m) / Mats Zuccarello ($3.500m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / J.T. Miller ($0.894m) / Lee Stempniak ($2.500m)
Tanner Glass ($1.450m) / Dominic Moore ($1.500m) / Steve Ott ($1.500m)
Chris Mueller ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Dan Girardi ($5.500m)
Marc Staal ($3.975m) / Dan Boyle ($4.500m)
John Moore ($1.300m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
Matt Hunwick ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,781,667; BONUSES: $350,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $218,333

If Kristo can make the team out of camp:

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Chris Kreider ($1.650m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Rick Nash ($7.800m) / Derick Brassard ($3.900m) / Mats Zuccarello ($3.500m)
Danny Kristo ($1.300m) / J.T. Miller ($0.894m) / Carl Hagelin ($2.250m)
Tanner Glass ($1.450m) / Dominic Moore ($1.500m) / Steve Ott ($1.500m)
Chris Mueller ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Dan Girardi ($5.500m)
Marc Staal ($3.975m) / Dan Boyle ($4.500m)
John Moore ($1.300m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
Matt Hunwick ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
BONUS OVERAGE
$0
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,581,667; BONUSES: $350,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $1,418,333

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

There's no need for me to do it. You disproved your own argument when you wrote that the very reason behind teams like Chicago being able to get top-end talent is them tanking and getting #1 overall draft picks. Seeing as we've never done that, you can't compare a #20 pick to a #1 pick. But if you compare our draft picks to the previous 20-25 selections in the same exact position, our draftee is consistently better than the average player chose in the same exact spot.

Maybe YOU'RE being ignorant now (temporarily--please note that I don't come out and infer that anyone is intrinsically ignorant, simply because they disagree with me, as this would indirectly indicate the ****tiness of my own character).

Now, the reason for this suggestion is that I disagree that talent necessarily wanes by the point you get to picks 20-25. As we've seen with most prior drafts, one can find a player appropriate for a 5-10 selection, later in the first. We did that (most likely) with Cherepanov, but not since.

Not saying we will always have such an opportunity, but good drafting teams find those opportunities. Furthermore, good drafting teams make the moves necessary to be in better position to do that.

I realize we are still waiting to see if Kreider maxes out his ceiling--I hope he does. I hope Miller does as well, but am not holding my breath.

So, does the logic of my argument hold up, or can I expect the HF Sheldon Cooper team to come down on me again?

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

whoooa... why would you want lee stempniak (or is he suddenly good since corsi came out?)

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Playing 100 games doesn't make you an NHLer. Brandon Segal played more than 100 games and Kris Newbury almost that much. Going back in time, the Pack coach played about 100 NHL games, as did his teammates Max Galanov and Peter Ferraro. Nobody regards them as NHLers, and Ferraro is considered a bad first round bust.

To be an NHLer, you should at least stick around for 4-5 seasons. At least have a career like Darroll Powe. Having a few call ups when injuries hit badly isn't a sign that you are an NHLer.

I agree there, but if it's that high a rate for your Segal's or Newbury's, could it be so much dramatically lower for 300 or even 400?

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Any chance Kevin Hayes signs with the Rangers (or they trade for his rights)? Wonder if he's friends with Kreider. Could be a cheap option for a top 9 LW spot that is open.

Big boy at 6'4. Could stand to add some weight if he's 205lbs.

Question would be if he's ready for full time NHL duties. I know he's rumored to go to Calgary with play with his former linemates or Florida to play with his brother, but could the opening the Rangers have on the LW and his connection with Kreider make NY a destination as well?

Apparently he is not going to report to the Hawks development camp either.

 

[Raspewtin]

If you can spew that garbage now, when the Rangers' farm is consistently ranked in the bottom third of the league in most reputable scouting services (including the one for which this board is named), I suppose you can say it anytime.

What in the world does this **** have to do with what I wrote?

 

[RangerBoy]

Curious on your reasoning and thoughts of why to trade Moore over Staal in the future?

If the Rangers re-sign Staal,he will get a NMC or NTC which makes it tough to trade him. Its not impossible but it limits the number of teams. Sign Staal. Moore is signed this summer to a 2 year bridge deal. 2 years/$1.25M-$1.4M per. He has no leverage and the Rangers are pressed up against the upper limit. Orlov got 2 years/$4M in the same situation. He had the KHL to use as a bargaining chip. Moore is not taking Staal's top 4 minutes. If the Rangers move Staal,they need a player to take those minutes. Moore seems to lack confidence. There is something about him. The coaches have to keep him telling him to use his strengths. Hopefully Moore develops into a solid NHL defenseman in the next 2 years. He will be arbitration eligible in his next contract. The Rangers trade Moore and replace him with Skjei on an entry level contract. 14-15 in Minnesota for Skjei. Turns pro after the season. 15-16 in AHL/Rangers. The Rangers can move Moore for another asset and replace him with a cheaper option. Not now but sometime in 15-16 or the summer of 16. It comes fast.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

If the Rangers re-sign Staal,he will get a NMC or NTC which makes it tough to trade him. Its not impossible but it limits the number of teams. Sign Staal. Moore is signed this summer to a 2 year bridge deal. 2 years/$1.25M-$1.4M per. He has no leverage and the Rangers are pressed up against the upper limit. Orlov got 2 years/$4M in the same situation. He had the KHL to use as a bargaining chip. Moore is not taking Staal's top 4 minutes. If the Rangers move Staal,they need a player to take those minutes. Moore seems to lack confidence. There is something about him. The coaches have to keep him telling him to use his strengths. Hopefully Moore develops into a solid NHL defenseman in the next 2 years. He will be arbitration eligible in his next contract. The Rangers trade Moore and replace him with Skjei on an entry level contract. 14-15 in Minnesota for Skjei. Turns pro after the season. 15-16 in AHL/Rangers. The Rangers can move Moore for another asset and replace him with a cheaper option. Not now but sometime in 15-16 or the summer of 16. It comes fast.

My problem with keeping Staal has always been the contract he's going to demand. He's going to get $5-6M on the open market, and that's way too much to pay a 2nd pairing defender. He'll never get top pairing minutes with McDonagh rightfully blocking his way. Trade him to a team that needs a top pairing stay at home type, and get the best value you can. Backfill the position from within (if Moore or Allen are ready), or go get someone who, while a downgrade from Staal, is more suited for 2nd pair minutes.

 

[Tawnos]

whoooa... why would you want lee stempniak (or is he suddenly good since corsi came out?)

He's a very good 3rd liner. He will put up 35-40 points in a full season and if things go really right, he can put up way more.

 

[Raspewtin]

I'm still pretty shocked Stempniak hasn't been signed.

 

[Off Sides]

I was looking at hockeydb a few weeks ago and just seeing the drafts, and who was picked and who stuck, gives creedance to the idea that even the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and especially the 1st, are NOT as much of a crapshoot as many of you say, especially not '03, were we ****ed up rounds 1, 2 and 3.

It's not a crap shoot, it's educated guessing, depends on who is making the guesses.

The issue for me has been always, why go off the board with the first 10-15 picks, it's pretty rare that ever works out. If odds were good that player would work out he would be ranked higher by the consensus.

When a consensus better player falls, and a team still takes their off the board pick instead, that is really a head scratcher to me. At that point it seems like the team is not expecting a player to drop, but since they already fell in love with their off the board pick, they take that player anyway.

The other thing I do not understand is when teams take an organization need with these same higher picks, teams change up like 1/5 of their team every year, and yet they are somehow going to predict what their organizational need will be in 3-4-5 years?

With the later picks I can certainly understand them gambling, boom or bust, trying to fill what may be a future need but whiffing in the first round more often than hitting just sets the team up to have to make other moves that cost assets down the line or signing other players who are probably overpriced or older by that point.

 

[Raspewtin]

It's not a crap shoot, it's educated guessing, depends on who is making the guesses.

The issue for me has been always, why go off the board with the first 10-15 picks, it's pretty rare that ever works out. If odds were good that player would work out he would be ranked higher by the consensus.

It actually is a crap shoot. Luck has a lot more to do with drafting than people would like to admit. How can someone predict the career trajectory of a prospect, especially ones that are anything but sure things? I'd say they're 50/50 in terms of is the pick lucky or was the pick a great find by good scouting staff. There's no sure things outside of the top 5 picks.

There's nothing wrong with going off the board for a different kind of player. There is something wrong with falling in love with picks, like you said.

 

[Off Sides]

It actually is a crap shoot. Luck has a lot more to do with drafting than people would like to admit. How can someone predict the career trajectory of a prospect, especially ones that are anything but sure things? I'd say they're 50/50 in terms of is the pick lucky or was the pick a great find by good scouting staff. There's no sure things outside of the top 5 picks.

There's nothing wrong with going off the board for a different kind of player. There is something wrong with falling in love with picks, like you said.

It's not a crap shoot, it's not a random throw of dice. Scouts actually watch the players. Eventually the scouting services come up with rankings. Go back in time look at their rankings, who the consensus best average pick was among all the rankings, and compare that to the teams who took off the board picks and see who has the better results.