2014-2015 General Wild Discussion Thread IV

[Dr Jan Itor]

I don't think that anybody is going to disagree with the idea that playing big minutes in the AHL would help him (or, at least, not hurt him). The question is by how much more would it help him to do that vs. playing regular NHL minutes; playing fewer minutes, but against better players. The differerence between playing 1+ minutes on every power play vs. 30-40 seconds, but against NHL quality penalty kill units.

From what I've seen since Spurgeon has gone out, is that Dumba does not look out of place in the NHL, and this isn't against a bunch of doormats. Vancouver, Calgary and Nashville were all very good games for him.

 

[MuckOG]

I have and he is playing great BUT so was Haula and Kuemper last year. Zucker to some extent as well showed he could play in the NHL two years ago almost with Bulmer. It's not going to hurt his development at all to put him down in the AHL where he can get time on the PK, PP and top pairing minutes.

But it's also not necessary. IMO, playing 15 minutes a game in the NHL is better than playing 22 minutes a game in the AHL. Plus, he is also getting time on the PP as well.

I hate comparing one players development to another's like you did here. What does Haula or Kuemper's development have to do with Dumba's? Some players take longer to develop properly, others don't require the same amount of time.

All I can say is that Dumba's play speaks for itself. His confidence level grows game by game.

 

[Al Lagoon]

I'd keep Dumba in the lineup because the Wild record is ridiculous when he plays:

With Dumba in the lineup the Wild are 25-9-1, or 6-12-6 without him

Must be doing something right.

 

[tomgilbertfan]

Scandella has said directly that that first playoff series he played against the Blackhawks was the turning point for his development. I'd love to have Dumba get a playoff series in.

 

[gphr513]

But it's also not necessary. IMO, playing 15 minutes a game in the NHL is better than playing 22 minutes a game in the AHL. Plus, he is also getting time on the PP as well.

I hate comparing one players development to another's like you did here. What does Haula or Kuemper's development have to do with Dumba's? Some players take longer to develop properly, others don't require the same amount of time.

All I can say is that Dumba's play speaks for itself. His confidence level grows game by game.

Agree with this totally.

I don't think Dumba needs to go down to the AHL just to get a few more minutes per night. I think he belongs up here.

 

[00xtremeninja]

I think Dumba has it well figured out. Yes there will be some growing pains and adjustments here and there, but he looks like he is confident in what he is doing and I don't think of him as a liability on the ice like I would with Prosser (who is doing fine for himself too) Falk, Bickell, etc

 

[J22*]

The real question that needs to be answered, isn't if Dumba should go down to Iowa when Spurgeon returns, but should Dumba be moved back down to the 3rd pair?

IMO- Dumba was every bit as good as Spurgeon for the last month or so, and has only looked better playing with Scandella.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Spurgeon has a couple years of top4 equity, Dumba has maybe 2 weeks. I don't think it's much of a question at all, especially when (if) the playoffs roll around.

 

[Wild48]

The real question that needs to be answered, isn't if Dumba should go down to Iowa when Spurgeon returns, but should Dumba be moved back down to the 3rd pair?

IMO- Dumba was every bit as good as Spurgeon for the last month or so, and has only looked better playing with Scandella.

I think you bump Dumba back to the 3rd pairing, but put him #1 PP with the instructions to stay out there as long as he's got the legs.

Also, if you can get Dumba a better option than Prosser (who admittedly has been decent enough lately) as his pairing, you bump up the minutes of that 3rd pairing and try and reduce Suter's workload.

If you can't improve on Prosser, you just give Dumba shifts in the top 4 as opportunities present themselves.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Suter's workload has been reduced since the all-star break already; only 4 games over 29 minutes and most in the 26-27 range. I really wouldn't be looking to drop it down any further.

 

[J22*]

Spurgeon has a couple years of top4 equity, Dumba has maybe 2 weeks. I don't think it's much of a question at all, especially when (if) the playoffs roll around.

I'm not questioning how good of a player Spurgeon is or his ability to play on the 2nd pair. I'm just wondering how long until Dumba moves ahead of him, because it's gonna happen sooner or later. And with the way dumba has been playing lately, it seems like sooner is the best bet.

 

[BusQuets]

I'm not questioning how good of a player Spurgeon is or his ability to play on the 2nd pair. I'm just wondering how long until Dumba moves ahead of him, because it's gonna happen sooner or later. And with the way dumba has been playing lately, it seems like sooner is the best bet.

Or we let Dumba polish his defensive game rather than putting him against top players. Dumba has a long way to become as smart and defensively sound defenceman like Spurgeon.

 

[TaLoN]

Move Dumba to the 3rd pair, but give him extra shifts up with Scandella to keep his time up at 15 or so.

 

[rynryn]

Spurge is far less "risky" than Dumba both because he has a lot more experience and the coach is very familiar with him--knows exactly what he can expect at all times of the game. No way Spurgeon loses minutes to Dumba this year. In the future you kind of expect it though, and be happy because it means Dumba is living up to his potential.

 

[J22*]

Spurge is far less "risky" than Dumba both because he has a lot more experience and the coach is very familiar with him--knows exactly what he can expect at all times of the game. No way Spurgeon loses minutes to Dumba this year. In the future you kind of expect it though, and be happy because it means Dumba is living up to his potential.

He already has. Dumba was starting to get the O-zone draws with Suter and the end of the game shifts before Spurgeon went out.

 

[Beegoalie]

Dumba is showing he belongs. He can easily be effective on. The 3rd pair. Just give him PP time(I wish 29s spot but that won't happen). Then throw him up with Suter occasionally.

No reason to send him to Iowa he belongs on the Wild for the long haul unless his game dramatically goes south.

 

[MNNumbers]

Saturday night, Feb 28. Weekly Final Standings Prediction Again.

Method. Bradley-Terry Statistical Model to give each team in the league a 'power factor' of sorts. (Full disclosure - to do this method in the NHL, one has to break down the lower point. I choose to do this by counting OT wins as a full win, OT losses as a full loss, and SO wins as 2/3, with SO losses 1/3. This skews some teams' PF downward a bit from their record, and some teams up. Sorry.) This PF allows a prediction of odds as to who would win if the 2 teams played. The odds are PF1/(PF1+PF2). I then run the remainder of the games on all these teams schedules, and add up the odds. Then, one final add-in. Because the league allows the loser point, and about 25% of games go to OT, I add .125 of a point for every game played, to simulate the effect of 3-pt games.

This week's final standings predictions (as always, Anaheim, Nashville, St Louis and Chicago excepted because they are almost assured qualification).

Pacific:
Anaheim................P1
Vancouver...100.4...P2
Calgary.........94.0...P3

Central:
Nashville................P1
St Louis.................P2
Chicago.................P3

Wild Card:
Minnesota (Cent)..94.7...WC1
Los Angeles(Pac)...93.9..WC2
Winnipeg (Cent)....93.3
San Jose (Pac).....88.9

Note the effect of this week's games... San Jose has fallen far to the bubble. Vancouver continues to have a healthy cushion (easier schedule left). And, Minnesota, Calgary, Los Angeles, and Winnipeg all within 1.5 pts. Note among those 4, that Minnesota has the highest point total. In other words, to fall out now, we would have to be passed by 3 teams.

 

[TaLoN]

No way Calgary gets the top 3 ahead of LA... LA is not the same team they were a month ago and your math isn't reflecting that.

Minnesota gets the first WC, Winnipeg the 2nd, Calgary gets left in the lurch.

 

[gphr513]

3 point cushion ahead of Calgary now

 

[TaLoN]

3 point cushion ahead of Calgary now

With both the ROW and head to head tie-breakers.

 

[Nsjohnson]

Can't wait to play COL again. At home, where we will destroy them. And they will have to hear our 'whiny' fans that are 'entitled' to our hockey saying DUUUBBBBBBB.

God that felt good tonight. I need to witness someone running McLeod. Bergy and Nino, together.

 

[kfan22]

If the Wild can win 3 of 4 this week they can hopefully create some serious distance from Calgary. Calgary has road games in Philly, Boston and Detroit this week not an easy stretch for them

 

[TheSauceBoss]

I think I'd rather play NSH over STL in the first round.

 

[TaLoN]

If the Wild can win 3 of 4 this week they can hopefully create some serious distance from Calgary. Calgary has road games in Philly, Boston and Detroit this week not an easy stretch for them

Boston has been losing to the western playoff race teams on a regular basis lately... don't expect any help from them.

 

[gphr513]

11th in the league in scoring. 2.8 Goals/game. On pace to be the highest scoring Wild team ever.