2014-2015 General Wild Discussion Thread IV

[NHL1674]

11th in the league in scoring. 2.8 Goals/game. On pace to be the highest scoring Wild team ever.

What! When the hell did that happen?

 

[TaLoN]

What! When the hell did that happen?

Tonight.

We are tied at 11th with Pittsburgh. We're 6th in the West in scoring.

Only Nashville, St.Louis, Chicago, Dallas and Anaheim are better in the West.

 

[rynryn]

What! When the hell did that happen?

plus our strong start when we were playing Yeo's system despite the **** goaltending instead of playing scared, like later. Beginning of the year we were near tops IIRC. another illustration that it was never Yeo's "fault". This is how the Wild are designed to play.

 

[MuckOG]

plus our strong start when we were playing Yeo's system despite the **** goaltending instead of playing scared, like later. Beginning of the year we were near tops IIRC. another illustration that it was never Yeo's "fault". This is how the Wild are designed to play.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[Jarick]

Two things:

1. PP has gone ice cold again. Last 10 games, they are 26th in the league in GF60 on the PP.

2. Possession hasn't been great either. Last 10 games, they are 21st in the league in CF% at even strength.

This team has been winning on the back of luck, both on the goaltending (9th 5v5 save%) and shooting (2nd 5v5 shot%). Something to keep in mind if we're going to give Mike Yeo a ton of credit...his team hasn't been playing very well.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

.......okay.

 

[Jarick]

Just means we can't expect the team to continue to win almost all of their games. And that the PP strategy and execution has been terrible. A lot of people have assumed the PP is fixed, but it's not. And we see the same five players on the ice every PP. I posted here instead of the Nino thread to keep things on topic, but lots of arguments against changing the PP "because it's working". It's not.

 

[Ban Hammered]

All that tells me is they are getting wins despite a lack of high execution by the players...says nothing about Yeo.

 

[Jarick]

So coaching doesn't have an impact on the power play?

 

[Minnesota]

I haven't seen anyone saying the PP looks good.

Didn't you say we were pretty unlucky during the first 40-or-so games this season, Jarick? I guess we're just regressing progressing to the mean and finally getting some puck luck these past 10 games.

 

[Ban Hammered]

So coaching doesn't have an impact on the power play?

Not getting into it with you about that. No matter what anyone says, you will continue to beat the same crap and lay blame on Yeo for it, so there is no point.

 

[DANOZ28]

jarick like me is a #'s guy and if the power play isnt top ten something should be done to try to improve it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Two things:

1. PP has gone ice cold again. Last 10 games, they are 26th in the league in GF60 on the PP.

2. Possession hasn't been great either. Last 10 games, they are 21st in the league in CF% at even strength.

This team has been winning on the back of luck, both on the goaltending (9th 5v5 save%) and shooting (2nd 5v5 shot%). Something to keep in mind if we're going to give Mike Yeo a ton of credit...his team hasn't been playing very well.

So I have a question:

If we're low ranked in both of those categories, then it means our goaltending is crap and we can't finish; if we're highly ranked, it means we're lucky. What we be the ideal rankings to show that we were actually good at these things?

 

[Jarick]

Monthly breakdown:

5v5 CF%
Oct 3rd
Nov 6th
Dec 15h
Jan 13th
Feb 18th

Wild started out very good in puck possession but last three months have been average

5v5 PDO
Oct 3rd
Nov 30th
Dec 22nd
Jan 28th
Feb 1st

Wild started out very lucky, then everything went to hell for three months (mostly goaltending but shooting as well), this month shot right back to the top

PP GF60
Oct 30th
Nov 24th
Dec 14th
Jan 16th
Feb 3rd

Edit: PP started out terrible and slowly improved. This month looks excellent but they've not drawn a lot of penalties, so first half of the month they were scoring and second half of the month went cold.

PK GA60
Oct 4th
Nov 2nd
Dec 26th
Jan 19th
Feb 1st

Again started out very hot the first couple months, went terrible, then this month has been outstanding

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Monthly breakdown:
PP GF60
Oct 1st
Nov 24th
Dec 14th
Jan 16th
Feb 3rd

PP started out hot, went bad, then average, then this month has been hot again (although they have barely been on the PP)

Wait a minute, didn't it take us 10 or 12 games to a power play goal? How is that 'starting out hot'?

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

Yeah, I have a hard time calling the recent goaltending/goals against 'lucky'. Limiting scoring chances/shots is the bigger part. Sure, THAT part is probably not sustainable, but the goaltending itself isn't 'lucky'.

 

[rynryn]

Two things:

1. PP has gone ice cold again. Last 10 games, they are 26th in the league in GF60 on the PP.

2. Possession hasn't been great either. Last 10 games, they are 21st in the league in CF% at even strength.

This team has been winning on the back of luck, both on the goaltending (9th 5v5 save%) and shooting (2nd 5v5 shot%). Something to keep in mind if we're going to give Mike Yeo a ton of credit...his team hasn't been playing very well.

i get it. it's luck when we win, and ****** coaching when we lose. stats aren't great of course, but it's probably somewhat of a reflection of the skaters opening up because we have good goaltending now instead of waiting, waiting, waiting.

 

[Jarick]

So I have a question:

If we're low ranked in both of those categories, then it means our goaltending is crap and we can't finish; if we're highly ranked, it means we're lucky. What we be the ideal rankings to show that we were actually good at these things?

I think there's both a component of luck and skill involved. I think it's more about deviation from a player's historical trend. Some players are going to be well above 10% shooting for their career and some goalies are going to be well above 92% save percentage for their career. When they go well above or below that, they are on a hot streak (lucky) or cold streak (unlucky).

I do think Kuemper and Backstrom were both bad and unlucky during the bad stretch. Backstrom more that he's at the end of his career. But the bad luck seemed to get in Kuemper's head and he couldn't recover mentally, so it kind of fueled itself.

I thought that Dubnyk had a ridiculously high adjusted 5v5 save percentage with the Wild, but it's actually now only slightly higher than his career average (around 93%). And even since coming to the Wild, he's still behind Price, Schneider, Rask, and Neuvirth (!).

Not to get too bogged down in the numbers, but I'm interested if a performance is sustainable or not. How many times have we seen the Wild go on a tear, start a main board thread, and then it goes to crap? How many times has some random depth forward gone on a tear and then goes ice cold?

The team is playing okay hockey right now, getting great goaltending, and they are finding the back of the net. Part of it is that they are scoring first in nearly every game, which puts pressure on the other team, and it's always better to defend from the high ground.

I want to see this team consistently take it to the next level. I don't want players like Vanek dragging down the top line. I want players who have been consistently driving play (Fontaine) get in the top nine, even the top six. You put your best players on the ice and that gives you the best chance to succeed.

 

[Jarick]

Wait a minute, didn't it take us 10 or 12 games to a power play goal? How is that 'starting out hot'?

You're right, I had the columns sorted wrong.

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

I think there's both a component of luck and skill involved. I think it's more about deviation from a player's historical trend. Some players are going to be well above 10% shooting for their career and some goalies are going to be well above 92% save percentage for their career. When they go well above or below that, they are on a hot streak (lucky) or cold streak (unlucky).

I do think Kuemper and Backstrom were both bad and unlucky during the bad stretch. Backstrom more that he's at the end of his career. But the bad luck seemed to get in Kuemper's head and he couldn't recover mentally, so it kind of fueled itself.

I thought that Dubnyk had a ridiculously high adjusted 5v5 save percentage with the Wild, but it's actually now only slightly higher than his career average (around 93%). And even since coming to the Wild, he's still behind Price, Schneider, Rask, and Neuvirth (!).

Not to get too bogged down in the numbers, but I'm interested if a performance is sustainable or not. How many times have we seen the Wild go on a tear, start a main board thread, and then it goes to crap? How many times has some random depth forward gone on a tear and then goes ice cold?

The team is playing okay hockey right now, getting great goaltending, and they are finding the back of the net. Part of it is that they are scoring first in nearly every game, which puts pressure on the other team, and it's always better to defend from the high ground.

I want to see this team consistently take it to the next level. I don't want players like Vanek dragging down the top line. I want players who have been consistently driving play (Fontaine) get in the top nine, even the top six. You put your best players on the ice and that gives you the best chance to succeed.

Except for your forgetting one aspect of the equation. The only reason guys like Fontaine, Haula, and Brodziak are driving possession to the degrees they are is because they are probably all more talented then the average 4th liner.

As we've seen, put these guys on higher lines and their effectiveness decreases.

To say that Fontaine should play over Vanek is a joke.

 

[Jarick]

i get it. it's luck when we win, and ****** coaching when we lose. stats aren't great of course, but it's probably somewhat of a reflection of the skaters opening up because we have good goaltending now instead of waiting, waiting, waiting.

Scoring first is a major part. Almost every time a team scores first, the other team has to start pressing. If the Wild get up early, they can sit back a little, and the other team starts pressing. The opposite of what was happening early.

The frustrating part of the season for the Wild was when they were giving up early goals and then just mailing it in for the rest of the game. Long stretches where they were doing that in December.

I'd like to see them keep the foot on the gas a bit more. They are an elite defensive team in terms of limiting chances right now, but a lot of time the Koivu and Coyle lines will just kill time off the clock instead of generating legit chances. That will come back to bite them when Dubnyk comes back down a bit or when they fourth line isn't scoring multiple goals per game.

Offensively, yeah the PP has been efficient at times but they aren't drawing penalties, so the net PP scoring is not there. To me, it looks like they aren't aggressive with the puck. You don't draw penalties playing around the perimeter. You draw penalties carrying the puck in open ice. Maybe it's a skill set thing that the Wild lack, but it's been consistent throughout Yeo's tenure.

I will say for Mike Yeo, he has the team playing extremely well defensively. They have been doing a great job limiting the opposition. Guys like Prosser and Dumba haven't been pulling the puck out of the back of the net for a couple months.

Lastly, there's a perception that teams are built for "playoff hockey", i.e. they are elite defensively and have elite goaltending and never take chances offensively and play tough/physical/gritty and have elite special teams. I don't necessarily buy that. There's been plenty of teams that have won the Cup with skill. Every team has a mix of players, not every team has elite talent. The best you can hope for is to go on a hot streak with your goaltending, get clutch scoring, and have the special teams working for you. Playoffs are small sample size, so any team that has success will tend to look especially good in hindsight.

I would rather the team do things that leads to success. That means both limiting shots and generating shots. That means having both a successful PK AND a successful PP. I like the Wild's forward depth but the mix in the top six still isn't quite there. I like the Wild's top four D but I don't like Prosser in the lineup. They have the goalie right now.

 

[Jarick]

Except for your forgetting one aspect of the equation. The only reason guys like Fontaine, Haula, and Brodziak are driving possession to the degrees they are is because they are probably all more talented then the average 4th liner.

As we've seen, put these guys on higher lines and their effectiveness decreases.

To say that Fontaine should play over Vanek is a joke.

You don't know if you don't try.

A few years ago, Tampa Bay took a shot on a kid that actually skated for the Wild in the prospect Tourney. Wild didn't give him a contract. Tampa did. His name is Tyler Johnson, and he's tied for 8th in the NHL in scoring in his second full season. He got a shot because Stamkos got injured, he played well, and now he's among the NHL elite.

Fontaine is in our top five among forwards for even strength possession, goal scoring, and points. He's better than Vanek in all those categories, yet he never plays on the PP, has been stuck on the fourth line, and gets far tougher zone starts.

Fontaine plays the Wild's style of hockey. He's fast, he hounds the puck, strong defensively, and he's got a lot more offensive ability than anyone gives him credit for.

The last two games, Bergenheim-Koivu-Vanek has been the worst possession line while Haula-Brodziak-Fontaine has been the best. Why not try Fontaine up there?

 

[Gaps]

I don't understand why Yeo hasn't yet realized that Koivu and Vanek don't work well together. On the PP it's ok, but as ES linemates it's like watching a train wreck. Throw Vanek off that line, break up PPG (as it's not exactly setting the world on fire either). Both Koivu and Bergenheim are good possession players, Vanek drags that line down possession-wise and their ability to create offense is limited too, mainly (I suspect) due to especially Koivu being unwilling to do much offensively, knowing Vanek's 100% unreliable when it comes to defense.

 

[PAYHA]

What else can he do. Vanek doesn't work with any line. All other three lines are firing on all cylinders. The only way to fix it so all 4 work that good is to put Vanek in the press box. It's not hard to understand

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I wonder how many other teams are asking for their teams to bench/cut/trade their 3rd leading point producer...