2014-2015 General Wild Discussion Thread IV
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The Wilds PP numbers since they scored their first PP goal on NOVEMBER 1st - 29-155 = 18.7% good enough for 13th in the NHL. Not great numbers, but not a major problem either.
The Wilds PP numbers in their last 30 games 19-96 = 19.8% good enough for 10th in the NHL.
The PP hasn't been "piss poor" since October.
gphr513
Watch the world burn
Too bad we can't cherry pick numbers , but have to consider the whole. We lost games this year because our PP was so poor compared to an average PP in the NHL. A win is a win, whether it be in Oct. or March.
Our PP% is 26th in the league this year. That is atrocious.
Our PP% is 26th in the league this year. That is atrocious.
yeah, lets just keep *****ing about goaltending too because overall this year, it's been horrible. Can't win with our goaltending.
DANOZ28
Registered User
with 26 games remaining i believe the wild need 93 points to make the 8th playoff spot 12-8-6 very doable after their recent run. currently 63 points heading into calgary.
How about this for "cherry picking"-
The Wild have played 56 games this year, in the last 47 games their PP has been "Middle of the pack" at worst. Sure you can "cherry pick" a handful of games during that stretch where the PP was a reason they lost, but show me an NHL team that can't say the same.
Taking a 9 game sample and using it to determine that the Wild PP has been "piss poor" all season, seems like "cherry picking" stats to me.
BTW- in those 9 games to start the season where the PP was terrible, the Wild went 6 - 3
Doesn't it feel like 95 or 96 might be the cutoff this year. So many teams competing and playing relativity well....but there isa lot of beating up on each other left to go
gphr513
Watch the world burn
There's "cherry picking", and then there's recognizing trends and statistical anomalies...
Nino Noderreiter
Registered User
Stats to back that up? I know it feels that way, but that's just cuz you don't remember the times it did go right. I kinda feel like more than ever this team this season has pulled out goals and scored when it needed to. We had a stretch earlier this season of pretty good play while consistently giving up the 1st goal.
gphr513
Watch the world burn
Just looking back at our last few PPG's...
GWG against Florida, in the second period (to put us up 2-0).
Vancouver we had two of them, put us up 2-0 in the 1st, and 4-2 in the 2nd.
I think the only time a PPG would be really inconsequential is if you're scoring it when you're up by like 3 or 4 goals. And we haven't really had any of those games lately.
GWG against Florida, in the second period (to put us up 2-0).
Vancouver we had two of them, put us up 2-0 in the 1st, and 4-2 in the 2nd.
I think the only time a PPG would be really inconsequential is if you're scoring it when you're up by like 3 or 4 goals. And we haven't really had any of those games lately.
special teams and goaltending are huge in the playoffs though. I remember when I was a little kid when the north stars made the Stanley Cup finals against Pittsburg. The reason why they got there was because there PP was on fire.
Jesus comma Brodin
Effing Norris-Byng Brodin
No I don't have the stats to back it up, but I remember Russo talking about it on twitter just a few weeks ago himself.
tomgilbertfan
#WhyBother
Looking at PPs to bring us to a tie, or to give us a the lead (didn't look at goals to extend leads or to overcome deficits over 1 goal, if you want to comb through 50+ box scores for other situations be my guest)
Majors counted as 2 minor PPs if there wasn't a PPG, 1 PP if there was.
December was a little weird as there was a PP that we had to take the lead, we gave up a SHG on that PP and then proceeded to tie it up, all on the same PP, so trying to count that one was weird. Counted it as a failed PP to take the lead, but a succeeded PP to tie it.
If a goal doesn't give us a lead at the time but becomes the GWG due to the other team making a comeback it doesn't count as a goal to take the lead, we're talking about the clutch goals at the time they were scored.
Also this isn't guaranteed to be error-free, it was a ton of data to try to comb through without automation.
Majors counted as 2 minor PPs if there wasn't a PPG, 1 PP if there was.
December was a little weird as there was a PP that we had to take the lead, we gave up a SHG on that PP and then proceeded to tie it up, all on the same PP, so trying to count that one was weird. Counted it as a failed PP to take the lead, but a succeeded PP to tie it.
If a goal doesn't give us a lead at the time but becomes the GWG due to the other team making a comeback it doesn't count as a goal to take the lead, we're talking about the clutch goals at the time they were scored.
Also this isn't guaranteed to be error-free, it was a ton of data to try to comb through without automation.
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Based on your stats... that's 9.1% PP success when the PP could give the team a lead, and 18.2% when they could tie it up.Looking at PPs to bring us to a tie, or to give us a the lead (didn't look at goals to extend leads or to overcome deficits over 1 goal, if you want to comb through 50+ box scores for other situations be my guest)
Majors counted as 2 minor PPs if there wasn't a PPG, 1 PP if there was.
December was a little weird as there was a PP that we had to take the lead, we gave up a SHG on that PP and then proceeded to tie it up, all on the same PP, so trying to count that one was weird. Counted it as a failed PP to take the lead, but a succeeded PP to tie it.
If a goal doesn't give us a lead at the time but becomes the GWG due to the other team making a comeback it doesn't count as a goal to take the lead, we're talking about the clutch goals at the time they were scored.
Also this isn't guaranteed to be error-free, it was a ton of data to try to comb through without automation.
That 18.2% is due entirely to December and January success, outside of that, there has been none.
That 9.1% is many a lost opportunity and more! That 0 for 11 January and thus far 0 for 6 February is telling!
Any guesses for D lines with Spurge potentially out for awhile? I'd like to see:
Suter- Scandella
Brodin- Dumba
Prosser- Folin
The only problems i see is both Scandella and Prosser are on their off hands. I know Prosser has done it a few times and Yeo even pointed out he's been doing well with it but I'm not sure how often Scandella has done it. Could be a nice combo with Suter feeding him for some bomb shots from the point.
Suter- Scandella
Brodin- Dumba
Prosser- Folin
The only problems i see is both Scandella and Prosser are on their off hands. I know Prosser has done it a few times and Yeo even pointed out he's been doing well with it but I'm not sure how often Scandella has done it. Could be a nice combo with Suter feeding him for some bomb shots from the point.
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
gphr513
Watch the world burn
Now the next thing to do, would be to comb through the box scores of every other team, to find out where we stack up vs. everyone else.
Chop, chop!!
BagHead
Registered User
Looking at PPs to bring us to a tie, or to give us a the lead (didn't look at goals to extend leads or to overcome deficits over 1 goal, if you want to comb through 50+ box scores for other situations be my guest)
Majors counted as 2 minor PPs if there wasn't a PPG, 1 PP if there was.
December was a little weird as there was a PP that we had to take the lead, we gave up a SHG on that PP and then proceeded to tie it up, all on the same PP, so trying to count that one was weird. Counted it as a failed PP to take the lead, but a succeeded PP to tie it.
If a goal doesn't give us a lead at the time but becomes the GWG due to the other team making a comeback it doesn't count as a goal to take the lead, we're talking about the clutch goals at the time they were scored.
Also this isn't guaranteed to be error-free, it was a ton of data to try to comb through without automation.
Thanks for all the work you put into that TomGilbertFan. As a note, I also LOVE seeing that "undefined" in February. Dividing by zero is a heck of a thing when it means your team has never been trailing in a game when a PP pops up. Sweet!
The bad news is seeing that last 17 PP's in Jan and Feb while we are tied and haven't taken a lead on them. That's a fairly long drought in that clutch situation.
tomgilbertfan
#WhyBother
Jarick
Doing Nothing
Something that really worries me:
Last five games 5v5 stats:
CF% 42.9 (28th)
PDO 104.2 (5th)
Sh% 11.7 (6th)
Sv% 92.5 (11th)
Wild have also been outshot each of the last five games.
The Wild are not playing well right now but are getting wins. That's good...but what happens when Dubnyk comes down to Earth and the shots aren't going in as often?
Last five games 5v5 stats:
CF% 42.9 (28th)
PDO 104.2 (5th)
Sh% 11.7 (6th)
Sv% 92.5 (11th)
Wild have also been outshot each of the last five games.
The Wild are not playing well right now but are getting wins. That's good...but what happens when Dubnyk comes down to Earth and the shots aren't going in as often?
With top pairing getting 30 minutes a game, 2nd pairing getting 23 minutes a game and 3rd pairing getting 7 minutes.
Can already see it.
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