Prospect Info: 2013 Penguins Development Camp

[Waffle Fries]

Yeah, but they're longshots with a capital "L". These guys don't have the pedigree or standout talent that virtually every other team has in some way. What we have is a bunch of late-drafted hardscrabble types, generally undersized, and with precious little natural skill.

You're right, Grigorenko shouldn't have been mentioned - didn't realize he had played that many games. Omit.

Payerl was specifically pointed out by Guerin as the guy who "stood out". NHL readiness wasn't mentioned.

Our number one guy with 'pedigree or standout talent' just graduated. Take most teams' top forward prospect away and suddenly their pool looks a lot weaker.

Again, I'm not trying to argue that we have great forward prospects, I just think it's ridiculous to say we have the absolute worst. I'm not that high on some of these guys, but I'm not nearly as down on them as you are.

It's easy to stand out when you're much bigger than everyone. And I'll have to go check the audio again, but most of the questions where Payerl was included in the answer were along the lines of 'who stood out the most in terms of being NHL ready'

 

[torrencemd]

Our group doesn't include Beau Bennett. Bennett playing with Crosby could probably top out at 80 points.

26 NHL games under his belt and 14 total points, sounds like we could easily peg him for 95...

Haha but not to jab too hard, lets just hold out on major predictions like that til the player gets a full yr under his belt. I would gladly eat crow on this one though. I think/ hope Bennet puts up great numbers, but I'd agree we have a lack of forward talent but, the organization has a high regard for PMD. It would have been nice to have Forsberg at 8 and then still nabbed Maata at 22, but obviously the Pens weren't sold that Forsberg would be better than Pouliot.

It is frustrating to say the least and hindsight is 20/20, but the Pens brass seems to have the ship steady and set up for playoff runs over the next decade. They have addressed the need of goalies with the drafting of Maguire, Jarry, and Murray. Hartzell and Zatkoff in the A is a good start. I would like to think our Goalie situation was a little more important than forwards considering we had Neal, Sid, Geno, Kunitz locked up or knew they were going to re-sign. With the cap stuation the way it is; we all knew the bottom 6 would suffer when Sid and Geno make over 8 mil a yr each.

Looking at Chicago Toews and Kane make less than 6.5 each. Had say the Pens been able to get the two headed monster signed for 7.5 each thats over 3 mil to START at looking at getting another top tier player for a wing or filling out the bottom 6 with players other than Vitale, Adams, Glass, Jeffrey and such.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Our number one guy with 'pedigree or standout talent' just graduated. Take most teams' top forward prospect away and suddenly their pool looks a lot weaker.

Other teams have had graduates drafted from Bennett's draft onwards too. The criteria isn't arbitrarily chosen to work against the Pens.

Again, I'm not trying to argue that we have great forward prospects, I just think it's ridiculous to say we have the absolute worst. I'm not that high on some of these guys, but I'm not nearly as down on them as you are.

I'm not down on them, I just try to have realistic expectations. We have no forward prospects drafted in the 1st round, one in the 2nd, and three in the 3rd. Take a look at how historically successful 2nd round and later picks are:

http://theleafsnation.com/2011/3/10/the-value-of-an-nhl-draft-pick

The odds are not with us. I'm not saying there won't be a few who break through, but I doubt there will be many, and if they do it's unlikely they'll make much of an impact.

The eye test doesn't suggest our guys are going to buck the trend, either. We just don't have much skill or size in the ranks, which is why a limited upside guy like Payerl can make the biggest impression. If we had any noteworthy talent, you can be sure they'd be getting the press over a projected 4th liner.

It's easy to stand out when you're much bigger than everyone. And I'll have to go check the audio again, but most of the questions where Payerl was included in the answer were along the lines of 'who stood out the most in terms of being NHL ready'

“Adam Payerl is just one of those guys who has really stood out,” Guerin said.

Although Payerl doesn't possess the pedigree of an impact NHL player — he was never drafted, failed to crack the 20-goal mark in five OHL seasons with Barrie and Belleville and scored just three goals in 44 games last season with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (AHL) — the brute force in his game has grasped the Penguins' attention.

“I think the way that he played in the playoffs is something we could use,” said Guerin, referring to Payerl's performance with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton last spring.

“He has size, and the way he skates with that size is impressive.”

Hynes, Penguins assistant to the general manager Tom Fitzgerald and Guerin were asked this week if a forward had surprised them during prospect camp. Payerl's name was the first that each of them mentioned.

“He'd be a great guy to have as the first guy on the forecheck,” Guerin said. “From the beginning of last year to the beginning of this year, he's made the biggest strides.”

http://triblive.com/sports/penguins/4364699-74/penguins-payerl-forward#ixzz2Znm6KKml

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The good news is that we do have a fantastic pool of defensemen. If/when we need to acquire some forward talent, we could draw from that well.

 

[Waffle Fries]

Other teams have had graduates drafted from Bennett's draft onwards too. The criteria isn't arbitrarily chosen to work against the Pens.



I'm not down on them, I just try to have realistic expectations. We have no forward prospects drafted in the 1st round, one in the 2nd, and three in the 3rd. Take a look at how historically successful 2nd round and later picks are:

http://theleafsnation.com/2011/3/10/the-value-of-an-nhl-draft-pick

The odds are not with us. I'm not saying there won't be a few who break through, but I doubt there will be many, and if they do it's unlikely they'll make much of an impact.

The eye test doesn't suggest our guys are going to buck the trend, either. We just don't have much skill or size in the ranks, which is why a limited upside guy like Payerl can make the biggest impression. If we had any noteworthy talent, you can be sure they'd be getting the press over a projected 4th liner.





http://triblive.com/sports/penguins/4364699-74/penguins-payerl-forward#ixzz2Znm6KKml

I didn't say the criteria was selected against the Pens, I said if you take away any teams top prospect the pool looks weaker.

I get trying to be realisitic, but again the 'worst in the league' claim is incredibly extreme.

As far as the article you posted, again I said I have to listen to the article to hear the actual question.

 

[Ogrezilla]

The good news is that we do have a fantastic pool of defensemen. If/when we need to acquire some forward talent, we could draw from that well.

At least 4 of our top 6 guys are youngish and are going to be effective for some time. And 2 of them are the 2 best players in the world

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Our ratings are very...ahem...generous.

Comparing to Detroit, Blueger and Sundqvist have the same numerical ratings as Jarnkrok and Tatar, and higher ratings than Frk and Jurco.

That's been consistent for our ratings for the past decade - they tend to be conservative with the high-end talents, but generous with everyone else. A half point is all that separates Bennett from Archibald.

We have a ton of guys with bottom six potential, but very few with top six potential and none with first line potential removing Bennett (still a prospect by HF's metric, but not by most others).

I do have less issue with the uses of D ratings for boom-or-bust guys like Bļugers, though. To keep that comparison with Detroit - they only have two rated prospects with a letter grade below a C, neither of which are top 20 prospects in their system...the Penguins have 13 players rated D, 10 of which are rated 7 or higher.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I get trying to be realisitic, but again the 'worst in the league' claim is incredibly extreme.

I doubt any team has used fewer early round picks on forwards than we have, and our inclination (up to this year) in those rounds has been to pick relatively safe guys with lower upsides.

It just adds up to a very poor forward class. The prospect pool still looks solid overall, but it's really skewed by our defense.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That's been consistent for our ratings for the past decade - they tend to be conservative with the high-end talents, but generous with everyone else. A half point is all that separates Bennett from Archibald.

We have a ton of guys with bottom six potential, but very few with top six potential and none with first line potential removing Bennett (still a prospect by HF's metric, but not by most others).

Wow.

 

[Sjb141]

RRP - if you actually look at our forward drafting the last couple of drafts, we've taken a lot of fliers on high skill, high upside guys. Bennett, blueger, guentzal, Byron, marcantoni, zlobin...

This narrative we go after 'safe players' is, frankly, BS.

We have had 2 drafts where we took dmen back to back in the 1st/2nd but I think they just saw 'highest rated player' - they do clearly value D but you also have to give the context of where they were picking/who was available.

 

[regard]

RRP - if you actually look at our forward drafting the last couple of drafts, we've taken a lot of fliers on high skill, high upside guys. Bennett, blueger, guentzal, Byron, marcantoni, zlobin...

This narrative we go after 'safe players' is, frankly, BS.

We have had 2 drafts where we took dmen back to back in the 1st/2nd but I think they just saw 'highest rated player' - they do clearly value D but you also have to give the context of where they were picking/who was available.

This. People keep saying that over and over to the point its apart of HF Pens mindmeld.

Other than Rust what forwards have we taken high that was "safe"?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

RRP - if you actually look at our forward drafting the last couple of drafts, we've taken a lot of fliers on high skill, high upside guys. Bennett, blueger, guentzal, Byron, marcantoni, zlobin...

This narrative we go after 'safe players' is, frankly, BS.

We have had 2 drafts where we took dmen back to back in the 1st/2nd but I think they just saw 'highest rated player' - they do clearly value D but you also have to give the context of where they were picking/who was available.

If you read my post carefully, you'll see that I specified both "early rounds" and "up to this year".

So that eliminates 4 of the 6 guys you mentioned.

1 of the 2 who remains is no longer considered a prospect.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I doubt any team has used fewer early round picks on forwards than we have, and our inclination (up to this year) in those rounds has been to pick relatively safe guys with lower upsides.

It just adds up to a very poor forward class. The prospect pool still looks solid overall, but it's really skewed by our defense.

That makes sense to me. The Pens have the two best centers in the NHL and both are locked up for a decade. The Pens top 4 wingers are signed or controlled for the next 4 years. So with the top 6 stable for the next 4 seasons the Pens are in no hurry for a forward prospect to crack the top 2 lines.

The defense is the exact opposite with only Letang signed long term and Scuderi for 4 years. The rest of the defensive positions will be open in 1 year besides Martin's spot which will be held for 2 years. So prospects like Despres, Bortuzzo, Dumoulin, Samuelsson, and Harrington will have to be ready to take the spots for Eaton, Murray, and most likely Niskanen this season and Orpik and Engelland next season. When Martin is gone in 2 years hopefully someone like Maatta or Pouliot is ready for top 6 duty with one of the other young guys that have been here ready for top 4 duty. In 2 years our defense will look very different than what we used in the playoffs this past season. The defense 2 years from now might look something like this.

Scuderi-Letang
Despres-Harrington
Bortuzzo-Dumoulin
Samuelsson

When Maatta and or Pouliot are ready then the Pens trade one of those top 6 defenseman for a good winger and insert them.

I also don't agree with your assessment of the Pens going for the safe low upside picks. You might point to Rust or Sundqvist which most likely look like 3rd line upside but the other top potential bottom 6 prospects like Wilson and Archibald are low round picks that lock like nice finds for their draft slot. Other picks like Blueger, Guentzel, Byron, Kuhnacki, Zlobin, Marcantuoni, all had chances when drafted for high upside depending on how they developed. Some now look like they most likely won't turn into top 6 forwards like Marcantuoni but with his speed he still could develop into a good bottom 6 guy even if he does not develop his offensive skills. I think the Pens forward group is pretty decent compared to their draft positions with most being mid to low round picks it is not a bad group and fits the teams needs over the next 4 years. Might have a Sutter replacement and plenty of bottom 6 forwards with guys like Rust, Wilson, Archibald looking ready to replace guys like Glass, Adams, and one of our 3rd line wingers. Hopefully Sundqvist can develop into Sutter's replacement and if not Rust or Blueger since Crosby and Malkin would block any center moving up past 3rd line duty unless they switch to wing.

Guentzel and Byron are the opposite of low risk low reward type players. I believe both have high upsides for the place they are drafted and both have top 6 upside if they develop and build up to around 6' 190+ pounds.

I want Shero to draft whatever position he thinks they have the best chance on developing into an NHL player. If we drafted all defenseman and the Pens have more than needed trading away a defenseman has done nice in the past with Whitney and Gogo getting us Kunitz and Neal.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That said though, you're right Sjb141, the Pens have actually taken some boom or bust types like Veilleux and Esposito early on too.

The main point is that we have precious few forward prospects in the system who have been drafted in the first 3 rounds, and only two of those could be considered skill guys - Blueger and Guentzel.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

That said though, you're right Sjb141, the Pens have actually taken some boom or bust types like Veilleux and Esposito early on too.

The main point is that we have precious few forward prospects in the system who have been drafted in the first 3 rounds, and only two of those could be considered skill guys - Blueger and Guentzel.

That's because most of the high round picks have been defenseman and for every high forward pick that was like Rust you will find a Blueger or Guentzel. I don't see that safe pick strategy you are talking about. Like I said I think Shero has done a nice job drafting when you consider the Pens have been in win now mode for his whole tenure as GM. When your team is in "win now mode" you trade several picks and prospects and draft low in each round. When you consider that Shero has done an excellent job with the prospect pool we have. Much better than CP did during the 90's with a decade of busts with even most of the 1st round picks not making NHL career's. Once the Pens started winning in the 90's and our draft picks started to be later in the rounds our 1st round picks almost always became busts. I for one love what Shero has done both drafting and trading.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That's because most of the high round picks have been defenseman and for every high forward pick that was like Rust you will find a Blueger or Guentzel. I don't see that safe pick strategy you are talking about. Like I said I think Shero has done a nice job drafting when you consider the Pens have been in win now mode for his whole tenure as GM. When your team is in "win now mode" you trade several picks and prospects and draft low in each round. When you consider that Shero has done an excellent job with the prospect pool we have. Much better than CP did during the 90's with a decade of busts with even most of the 1st round picks not making NHL career's. Once the Pens started winning in the 90's and our draft picks started to be later in the rounds our 1st round picks almost always became busts. I for one love what Shero has done both drafting and trading.

I have no problem with Shero or our pool on the whole. You are arguing against points I never made.

I simply think our forward prospects are the worst in the league.

 

[td_ice]

I have hesitated commenting too much on the Prospect camp, as I had to take a phone call, and I missed about 10 minutes out of the 50 minutes played. But when I was watching, there wasn't any forward that really stood out to me. Double M had some moments, and looked the best, but I didn't see much from the forwards.

 

[Nietzsche Zone Play]

I think it was Corey Pronman at Hockey Prospectus who said recently there are teams that play it safe in mid-late rounds and take 3rd/4th liners and there are those who take chances on skill and talent. he then called the Pens "riverboat gamblers" and that the strategy is excellent since those guys are a lot harder to acquire later on.

Wilson, Byron, Archibald, Zlobin, Marcantuoni, Agostino are all recent examples. in every case it will take at least 4 years before they know if they will possibly pan out, but if they do on even one, it will pay major dividends. (obviously in the case of Agostino it won't)

 

[NMK11]

We have a ton of guys with bottom six potential, but very few with top six potential and none with first line potential removing Bennett (still a prospect by HF's metric, but not by most others).

Was reading this at work, and it doesn't necessarily seem like a bad thing. Let's face it, our top 6 is always going to be in the top 5 of the league as long as Sid and Malkin are there. Our defense got better last year and is stocked as has been discussed ad nauseum.

Our biggest problem is no depth in the bottom 6. If we get 2-3 people who prove to be above-average/good 3rd and 4th liners who we can keep on the big club for cheap, we're suddenly a much better team. We don't need to be finding top-6 gems in our system (any more than any other team), what we really need is a few bottom-6 guys.

 

[Sjb141]

I think it was Corey Pronman at Hockey Prospectus who said recently there are teams that play it safe in mid-late rounds and take 3rd/4th liners and there are those who take chances on skill and talent. he then called the Pens "riverboat gamblers" and that the strategy is excellent since those guys are a lot harder to acquire later on.

Wilson, Byron, Archibald, Zlobin, Marcantuoni, Agostino are all recent examples. in every case it will take at least 4 years before they know if they will possibly pan out, but if they do on even one, it will pay major dividends. (obviously in the case of Agostino it won't)

Also why they intentionally target a lot of kids going to college. Get someone w/ skill but lacking size an extra year of development.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Sounds like summertime PR-speak to me. Not very specific in his praise. We'll see if he gets the regular minutes out of camp; that's the only sure sign of an impressed coach.

That's not something Trotz does.

 

[Jacob]

I was just taking a gander at some other teams recent drafts and I'm pretty surprised at the number of teams that don't seem to even bother scouting high school or junior A.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

The good news is that we do have a fantastic pool of defensemen. If/when we need to acquire some forward talent, we could draw from that well.

Not really though. Unproven Dmen prospects don't fetch that much, and not many of them will get the NHL time to return proven talent. We just traded arguably our best prospect for Joe Morrow at the TDL.

We can trade them for other forward prospects, or we could have just drafted forwards in the first place.


As for our forwards here is their rank from Dobber's prospect guide (and **** off if you wanna ***** about Dobber):

171 - Tom Kühnhackl
Upside - Scoring forward
Certainty (NHLer; Upside) - 65%; 35%
Expected arrival – Probably 2015-16

226 - Teddy Blueger
Upside – Stephen Weiss
Certainty (NHL, Upside) - 70%, 30%
Expected arrival – Probably 2016-17

236 - Oskar Sundqvist
Upside – Jonas Hoglund
Certainty (NHL, Upside) - 60%, 35%
Expected arrival – A long wait. 2016-17 at best

257 - Josh Archibald
Upside - Mark Letestu
Certainty (NHLer; Upside) - 60%, 15%
Expected arrival – A long wait - 2016-17 at best

 

[Crafton]

I was just taking a gander at some other teams recent drafts and I'm pretty surprised at the number of teams that don't seem to even bother scouting high school or junior A.

a quick and rudimentary chart

Team​

​

​

|

HF Spring '12-13 Ranking​

|

High Schoolers Drafted Since '06​

Florida |1|6
Ottawa| 2| 3
Edmonton| 3 | 1
Minnesota | 4 | 11
Islanders| 5| 9
Montreal| 6| 6
St. Louis| 7| 6
Buffalo |8| 8
Chicago |10| 5
Detroit |11| 4
Pittsburgh |14| 6
Washington | 25| 3
New Jersey |28| 2
Philadelphia |30| 2

there does appear to be a dramatic stratification - some teams are content to dip their toes in the water, others lean heavily on their high school scouts.

others can further the investigation to their heart's content...

 

[#66]

I'm fine with our forward group sucking since we have the two best centers signed for another decade, plus Neal for the next 5 and hopefully Bennett will be around for a while too.

I'm concerned though that we don't even have many physical bottom-line guys in the system. Megna isn't cut out for a 4th line and I doubt that Wilson, Gibbons, Blueger etc. are either. I think it's important to have a lot of future bottom 6 guys because you don't want to be forced to fill such a role in free agency where you'll have to pay a premium for even the mediocre ones (like Glass). Or you end up having to hang onto a guy like Adams beyond his expiration date.

Yup... That's why I badly wanted Hartman when the Pens had a 1st rounder. IMO he'll be a player like Ott even if he doesn't reach his upside. I do think he could reach a Callahan level though. He has good skill and a nice offensive IQ.

I'm guessing the Pens feel safe with going for D men. Even if their offense doesn't turn out they can still put out a good player. Its such a taught position that just teaching good habits can make an NHL player to a degree.

On the other hand if a F doesn't find his offense you can't really turn an offensive player into an NHLer. Sure you sometimes get a case like Errey who can reinvent themselves but it almost never happens.