My Personal Final Top 15
Seeing as we're picking at 14 ... and I don't want to give too much away before we put out our consensus list
1. Seth Jones - D, Portland Winterhawks ... In spite of the fact that the next guy on this list dominated the Memorial Cup, Jones remains #1 on my list due to the fact that he's an absolute physical beast, and a difference maker in all three zones. I've not seen a defenseman with his combination of size, skill, and awareness in a long time ... if ever.
Upside Projection: Potential franchise defenseman.
Stylistic Comparison: Shea Weber
2. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Halifax Mooseheads ... MacKinnon was #1 for me until around January, where he fell behind Jones mainly due to the development of Jones, not his own shortcomings. MacKinnon was nothing short of spectacular for the Mooseheads at the Memorial Cup, and showed that he can raise his game when it matters. He has a rare combination of skill, work ethic, and leadership that you only see in world class players.
Upside Projection: Potential franchise forward.
Stylistic Comparison: John Tavares
3. Jonathan Drouin, LW, Halifax Mooseheads ... For me, Drouin is a swing for the fences type of player. Didn't have the best Memorial Cup, but was solid at the WJCs and all year long in Halifax. Won the CHL player of the year award, scoring 105 points in just 49 games. Tenacious, goes 100 mph all the time, and has well above average vision. Can find teammates with a surprising pass, or can strike with a quick snipe from nearly any spot in the offensive zone. May have the highest offensive upside in the draft.
Upside Projection: Potential first line left wing.
Stylistic Comparison: Martin St. Louis
4. Aleksander Barkov, F, Tappara (FIN) ... Barkov is a guy that you look at and see as a second line center in the NHL. The question lies in whether or not he has the potential to be even better ... as it stands, he's a big kid with very good skill and solid all-around play. Maybe the most NHL ready player in the draft. A somewhat safe pick, Barkov has the look of a guy that will spend 15-20 years in the NHL and is the type of guy that you could win championships with.
Upside Projection: First line forward.
Stylistic Comparison: Eric Staal
5. Elias Lindholm, C, Brynas (SWE) ... A player that I'm particularly excited about, Lindholm plays a North American style game and should be a somewhat easy study coming over from Europe. Though he didn't dominate, Lindholm put up very good numbers for Brynas against very good competition, and could be ready to play in the NHL within 2 years. Doesn't have the huge upside of the three forwards ahead of him on the list, but is still a great prospect with big potential. Very good playmaker.
Upside Projection: Possible first line center.
Stylistic Comparison: Nicklas Backstrom
6. Valeri Nichushkin, LW, Dynamo (RUS) ... Skill-wise, it would be easy to put Nichushkin in the top 4 of this draft. He is a budding superstar in Russia already, and has the potential to be a game breaker. The Russian factor plays huge for me however, and there are just too many invariables when judging the talent of these players. I would love to see Nichushkin buck the recent trend of Russians selected in this range, because he could be as good - or better - than Nail Yakupov.
Upside Projection: First line left wing.
Stylistic Comparison: Nail Yakupov
7. Darnell Nurse, D, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds ... With all of the tools that GMs love in young defensemen, Darnell Nurse is an easy choice in the top-10, and should be the second defenseman to go at the Draft. With a big frame that is still filling out, Nurse is a punishing defender that also has the mobility to jump into the rush and make things happen in all three zones. Good shot from the point, good vision, really a good all around player.
Upside Projection: Top 4 defenseman.
Stylistic Comparison: Brent Seabrook
8. Sean Monahan, C, Ottawa 67's ... Monahan will remind people of Sean Couturier right off the bat. Another kid with a big frame, Monahan will need to get stronger to be competitive in the NHL. Good in all three zones, Monahan's potential doesn't necessarily depend on his scoring, but on the hope that he could be a dominant shutdown center. Could play in the NHL next year, but would benefit more from further development to his offensive game and strength.
Upside projection: Good second line center, great third line center.
Stylistic Comparison: Sean Couturier
9. Hunter Shinkaruk, LW, Medicine Hat Tigers ... Shinkaruk had a huge year for Medicine Hat in 2011-12, perhaps inflated by skating on the opposite wing of Emerson Etem all year. Though he did see a drop in offense this year, Shinkaruk showed all year long that he can compete on his own. Lofty expectations aside, this is a player that can be a difference maker. May have gone in the top three last year had he been born a little bit earlier. Needs to work on strength and conditioning, but has skills that just can't be taught.
Upside Projection: Top 6 scoring forward.
Stylistic Comparison: Jordan Eberle
10. Nikita Zadorov, D, London Knights ... Typically not high on this style of player, but Zadorov stood out every time I saw him. Not incredibly quick, but surprisingly agile for a big guy. Not a particularly punishing defender, but a steady, stay at home type of presence that you could see being a rock in the NHL. Good shot, good puck mover, but will earn his living in the defensive zone.
Upside Projection: Top four shutdown defender.
Stylistic Comparison: Derian Hatcher
11. Max Domi, F, London Knights ... Domi is a high skill kid that plays the game with a surprising amount of grit for a smaller player. Competes for every inch of ice, goes to the hard areas, and has well above average vision. Good shot, hard to knock off the puck, slippery, and competitive. Did I mention competitive? Fun to watch, but will his game translate to the NHL?
Upside Projection: Top 6 forward.
Stylistic Comparison: Theoren Fleury
12. Zachary Fucale, G, Halifax Moosheads ... Usually not big on trying to place goalies with the skaters, thought I would give the recent Memorial Cup winning goaltender a nod here. Agile, hard to beat down low, and covers a lot of net. Has some growing to do, but is a coachable kid that likes to win and competes to do so. Good rebound control.
Upside Projection: World class starting goaltender.
Stylistic Comparison: Marc-Andre Fleury
13. Alexander Wennberg, F, Djurgardens (SWE) ... Another good all-around Scandinavian player, scouts seem to have Wennberg all over the board. I fit him in this range because of his high offensive potential. Does everything well, could be a very good complimentary player, especially alongside other talented scorers. Has to get stronger.
Upside Projection: Second line forward.
Stylistic Comparison: Michael Ryder
14. Ryan Pulock, D, Brandon Wheat Kings ... Really had a hard time not putting Pulock in my top-10. Anyone who has seen this guy play would likely agree that he has huge potential. Good in the defensive zone, huge potential in the offensive zone. Big shot, hard, heavy, accurate. Good passer, great leadership skills, willing to do whatever it takes to win. One of my dark horses in this draft.
Upside Projection: Top pairing defenseman (I will debate this with anyone who wants to argue
).
Stylistic Comparison: Al MacInnis
15. Bo Horvat, F, London Knights ... Rounding out my top-15 is the third Knight on my list, 33 goal scorer Bo Horvat. Another guy that plays hard every shift, Horvat is a good all-around player with the potential to be a goal scoring left wing in the NHL. Already has an NHL frame, does all of the little things all over the ice that coaches love to see. Quick release on an accurate shot, with a little more development could be lethal.
Upside Projection: Second/third line forward.
Stylistic Comparison: Justin Williams
For the record ... the upside projections are what I feel are the absolute best case scenarios. As for what I "think" each player will turn into, I'm not big on sharing that sort of information. The stylistic comparisons are just that - style only ... this does not mean that they will reach, exceed, or completely miss the player I compared them to ... that is just who they remind me of when I watch them play. If anyone has any questions or comments on my list, feel free to ask - I always welcome intelligent discussion on this sort of thing.