2013 NHL Draft Thread III (6/30, 3PM EDT)

[Mayor Bee]

Not saying we should or shouldn't, but if Jarmo does deem Johansen a problem. How far could we move up and would it be worth it to attach one of our three firsts with him.

Johansen by himself would probably net a top-5 pick.

 

[CBJx614]

Also not saying we should or shouldn't, but I'd guess Johansen plus the 14th gets us somewhere in the 5-7 range.

If I was the Canes, I would want to win now while the Staal's are in their primes, and I'd look to trade the 5th pick for Johansen and Tyutin. The Oilers are another team that might do that, in their case being sick of draft picks and wanting to trade for defence and certainty.

I probably wouldn't do Johansen and Tyutin for the 7th, but I probably would for the 5th, just because Lindholm has sky-high upside. You don't know if he'll even be better than Johansen alone, but he has a chance to be much much better, and I'd trade for that.

BTW, none of this should be read as giving up on Johansen. I'm still operating on the assumption that he'll be a player of decent character, probably a good all-around second line center.

There is no way I trade Johansen unless were getting into the top 4 and its not likely seeing how we will be playing carolina A LOT. And trading Johansen for a younger unproven kid only sets this organization back. Now maybe Tyutin and a pick to move into the top 10 to grab a player like shinkaruk or nichushkin if they fall. Who kmows maybe Barkovs injury scares teams off. Or Monahan gets looked over because he hasnt doesnt much lately.

I do Johansen and the #14 pick ... only if it gets us into the top-4. Why? Because Ryan Johansen has already shown that he can play in the NHL, and has already carved a niche for himself as a potential shutdown center. The guys at the draft have nothing like that, only potential. For me, to trade a young (under-21) NHL player - particularly one that you drafted 4th overall - and a middle-first round draft pick, the return had better be humongous. I'd settle for one of Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin, or Barkov ... Lindholm is a stretch. Maybe with the 19th or 22nd pick in the 14th pick's place.

Exactamundo

 

[Jackets16]

Sure sounds like me may be interested in moving up, here is quaote from jarmo...“Where we’re picking right now (it could change), it’s really hard to say. In my experience, after about the five or six top players the draft scatters all over the place. We might think we have an idea about who’s going to be there at No. 14, but it may end up being completely different by the time we’re up there. We might move up if we see an opportunity to get a player we like…it’s hard to say, but there are always impact players in the draft and it’s the same case this year. From what I’ve seen, there are some very good players in this draft sooner rather than later in the NHL. We’re going to keep our fingers crossed and do our best to make different moves to get one, two or maybe three of those players.â€

He mentions moving up quite a bit in this interview...

http://bluejackets.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=671517

It doesn't seem like that to me. Just seems like he has the player(s) he wants and he will do his best to get those players. That may mean moving up and it may not.

 

[Jackets16]

Also not saying we should or shouldn't, but I'd guess Johansen plus the 14th gets us somewhere in the 5-7 range.

If I was the Canes, I would want to win now while the Staal's are in their primes, and I'd look to trade the 5th pick for Johansen and Tyutin. The Oilers are another team that might do that, in their case being sick of draft picks and wanting to trade for defence and certainty.

I probably wouldn't do Johansen and Tyutin for the 7th, but I probably would for the 5th, just because Lindholm has sky-high upside. You don't know if he'll even be better than Johansen alone, but he has a chance to be much much better, and I'd trade for that.

BTW, none of this should be read as giving up on Johansen. I'm still operating on the assumption that he'll be a player of decent character, probably a good all-around second line center.

There is no way I would trade Johansen AND Tyutin for the 5th pick. I am okay with trading Johansen if JD and JK think that is best, but they better get more value in a trade than that.

 

[Fro]

Ryan Hartman profile...

http://bluejackets.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=17850&navid=DL|CBJ|home

 

[EspenK]

For those who haven't seen it here's a good site for some write ups on draft prospects. So far he has done 40. Anyone know if he has any credibility?

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/news/?author=2

 

[EspenK]

Sore Loser- Adam Erne has plummeted in a few rankings,most notably to 26th in NA by Central Scouting. Have any idea?

 

[hip check]

For those who haven't seen it here's a good site for some write ups on draft prospects. So far he has done 40. Anyone know if he has any credibility?

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/news/?author=2

I stumbled across this site today actually. Good stuff!

 

[db2011]

Also not saying we should or shouldn't, but I'd guess Johansen plus the 14th gets us somewhere in the 5-7 range.

If I was the Canes, I would want to win now while the Staal's are in their primes, and I'd look to trade the 5th pick for Johansen and Tyutin. The Oilers are another team that might do that, in their case being sick of draft picks and wanting to trade for defence and certainty.

I probably wouldn't do Johansen and Tyutin for the 7th, but I probably would for the 5th, just because Lindholm has sky-high upside. You don't know if he'll even be better than Johansen alone, but he has a chance to be much much better, and I'd trade for that.

BTW, none of this should be read as giving up on Johansen. I'm still operating on the assumption that he'll be a player of decent character, probably a good all-around second line center.

I think that's a terrible idea. We're not rebuilding

 

[blahblah]

I think that's a terrible idea. We're not rebuilding

Rebuilding or not, it's just a bad, bad, bad idea. You don't need to preface it.

There are some people that are absolutely in love with players potential and way oversell the value of the 4th and 5th picks.

Over the past decade there have been some very good player around that slotting, there have been some ok ones. There are more of the "I'd rather have Tyutin" than that pick. There are only 4 or 5 players during that time that I'd rather have than both Tyutin and Johasen and that is if Johansen doesn't improve from where he's at. If Johnasen starts putting up a 60 point pace that number might even decrease more.

 

[major major]

Rebuilding or not, it's just a bad, bad, bad idea. You don't need to preface it.

There are some people that are absolutely in love with players potential and way oversell the value of the 4th and 5th picks.

Over the past decade there have been some very good player around that slotting, there have been some ok ones. There are more of the "I'd rather have Tyutin" than that pick. There are only 4 or 5 players during that time that I'd rather have than both Tyutin and Johasen and that is if Johansen doesn't improve from where he's at. If Johnasen starts putting up a 60 point pace that number might even decrease more.

I can be persuaded that its not a good deal because we'd be losing purely in terms of the trade value of the players, so that much needs to be added from the other side.

Allow me to explain why I think its a good deal in outline. You'd be right that historically speaking a 5th overall is lucky to turn into either Johansen or Tyutin. But this is Barkov/Lindholm we're talking about. I think its smarter to make projections based on who they are as players instead of their draft position.

I'll admit that much of my reasoning here comes from the idea that the value of a top prospect is bound up in the possibility that they might be great. Quick thought experiment (not about specific players): would you trade a second-line level player for a player with a one-third chance of being second-line, one-third chance of being first line or elite, and one-third chance of being worse than second-line?

For me this is an easy yes, IF you have higher depth in your lineup and a lack of elite players. The value of a player should rise exponentially, not linearly, as you progress from second line to first to elite.

I don't think this is a "rebuilding" trade either. Johansen is still not that useful and I don't think he has much top-line upside, and Barkov/Lindholm could easily outscore him next year, which the Desjardin's equivalencies suggest:

Jonathan Drouin, Halifax (QMJHL) 19-30-49
Sasha Barkov, Tappere Tampere (SM-Liiga) 18-22-40
Elias Lindholm, Brynas (SEL) 15-25-40
Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax (QMJHL) 17-22-39
Max Domi, London (OHL) 15-18-33
Hunter Shinkaruk, Medicine Hat (WHL) 14-19-33
Sean Monahan, Ottawa (OHL) 13-20-33
Anthony Mantha, Val d’or (QMJHL) 17-13-30
Valeri Nichushkin, Chelyabinsk Traktor (KHL) 20-10-30
Adam Erne, Quebec (QMJHL) 9-15-24
Curtis Lazar, Edmonton (WHL) 13-8-21

Tyutin is a very useful defenceman though, I'll give you that. This is the sort of deal that you only do if you think the younger defencemen can step up.

 

[blahblah]

That's what "they" say every year about some player they like. That "he" is somehow different.

I'm done.

 

[Roadman]

That's what "they" say every year about some player they like. That "he" is somehow different.

I'm done.

In this case it's almost anyone above where we're drafting.

 

[major major]

In this case it's almost anyone above where were drafting.

I do think that the evidence is clear that Barkov/Lindholm are significantly better than most players historically available in the 4th through 6th slots. I did a quick study on this:

Method

I went through the Desjardins' equivalencies back 15 or so years, and looked for the top forwards drafted from the 4th through the 6th picks. There were about 30 or so forwards taken there, but most didn't come close to the 40 point projection we have for Barkov/Lindholm. The best were:

Sam Gagner, 55 points.
Pavel Brendl, 48 points.
Derick Brassard, 45 points.
Ryan Strome, 40 points.
Nikolai Zherdev, 40 points.
Thomas Vanek, 37 points.
Daniel Tkaczuk, 37 points.
Tim Connolly, 36 points.
Stephen Weiss, 35 points.
Phil Kessel, 35 points.
Raffi Torres, 33 points.

Conclusion

Barkov and Lindholm have significantly better point projections than most players who have historically been drafted in the 4th through 6th picks. But of the few players who did have higher projections, none have become elite NHLers. So I retract my earlier trade proposal.

 

[Sore Loser]

Sore Loser- Adam Erne has plummeted in a few rankings,most notably to 26th in NA by Central Scouting. Have any idea?

A lot to do with the guys that are around him moving up. I'm not too high on Erne, haven't been for most of the year personally. I think teams will have him all over the board on their own lists.

 

[major major]

My question is why do some have Erne ranked so high? His stats are mediocre. If a player with his physical capabilities can't score more against boys, what makes us think he'll improve that given he doesn't have the creativity?

 

[JacketsFanWest]

I'm a little higher on Erne than Sore Loser. I think part of the reason he's dropping is questions on whether his offensive game is as good as his numbers. There are probably more teams that see him as a potential 3rd liner than a top 6 forward. He's benefited from playing with Mikhail Grigorenko and he's not really at the same caliber. There are also quite a few weaker teams in the Q that make prospects look better than they are.

I watched some of the Chicoutimi/Quebec playoff series and Erne stood out. He does have skill, skating ability and plays physical (some times a little too physical). He might able to develop into a 2nd liner, but at #14 there's likely better players available with higher upside.

My question is why do some have Erne ranked so high? His stats are mediocre. If a player with his physical capabilities can't score more against boys, what makes us think he'll improve that given he doesn't have the creativity?

Erne had 72 points in 68 games in the regular season and was the leading scorer for the Remparts. He's scored some pretty goals, but things aren't going to come that easy in the NHL.

I think people expected him to take the next step this season after how well he did last season and he didn't quite live up to that. You could compare him to Boone Jenner a little. His offensive skill level was questioned in his draft year and he slide to the second round. While Jenner had a great season, there's still questions about how his game will translate to the NHL and that's coming from the OHL and not the QMJHL. There's going to be a bigger transition for Erne. It might have been better for Erne to have gone to Boston University since the Q isn't exactly known for developing power forwards.

 

[pete goegan]

I find myself drawn more and more toward Max Domi. I know he is on the rise and is becoming less likely to be on the board at 14, but it would please me greatly were he to be.

 

[alphafox]

I find myself drawn more and more toward Max Domi. I know he is on the rise and is becoming less likely to be on the board at 14, but it would please me greatly were he to be.

I agree, I think Domi is gone in the top 10 unfortunately, and unless we move up or there is a big run on D we are going to miss out on any players with great offensive upside, again. This isn't really a problem, as it seems clear we are following the St. Louis, Boston, LA model of team, I just prefer a more offensive style of hockey rather than the grinding type of game these teams play.

The closer we get to the draft the more I expect us to either make a big trade, or take three guys like Horvat, Lazar, and Rychel.

 

[EspenK]

Some fuel for the discussions.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2013/05/24/oilers-very-amenable-to-trading-seventh-overall-pick/related/

 

[major major]

Some fuel for the discussions.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2013/05/24/oilers-very-amenable-to-trading-seventh-overall-pick/related/

No surprise there. I won't make a proposal here, but I'm curious what others would offer for the 7th if Lindholm happened to be on the board.

 

[Fro]

personally tyutin straight up...or nikitin and the LA 1st...neither would probably get it done...but that's all I care to send them...

 

[Jackets16]

personally tyutin straight up...or nikitin and the LA 1st...neither would probably get it done...but that's all I care to send them...

I agree.

 

[Sore Loser]

I'm a little higher on Erne than Sore Loser. I think part of the reason he's dropping is questions on whether his offensive game is as good as his numbers. There are probably more teams that see him as a potential 3rd liner than a top 6 forward. He's benefited from playing with Mikhail Grigorenko and he's not really at the same caliber. There are also quite a few weaker teams in the Q that make prospects look better than they are.

I watched some of the Chicoutimi/Quebec playoff series and Erne stood out. He does have skill, skating ability and plays physical (some times a little too physical). He might able to develop into a 2nd liner, but at #14 there's likely better players available with higher upside.




Erne had 72 points in 68 games in the regular season and was the leading scorer for the Remparts. He's scored some pretty goals, but things aren't going to come that easy in the NHL.

I think people expected him to take the next step this season after how well he did last season and he didn't quite live up to that. You could compare him to Boone Jenner a little. His offensive skill level was questioned in his draft year and he slide to the second round. While Jenner had a great season, there's still questions about how his game will translate to the NHL and that's coming from the OHL and not the QMJHL. There's going to be a bigger transition for Erne. It might have been better for Erne to have gone to Boston University since the Q isn't exactly known for developing power forwards.

This is a very fair post. I'm one of those guys that sees Erne as a third line player, which is the reason I have him in my 25-30 range, rather than my 15-20 range. I won't say that he isn't a competitive player, I just don't see the big potential that some do.

personally tyutin straight up...or nikitin and the LA 1st...neither would probably get it done...but that's all I care to send them...

I'll agree, but with the following notation:

I send Johansen their way for the 7th pick, but only if they are sending something back to us in return. What would that equate to? Likely, something they wouldn't want to pay ... but, they say they are looking for a big center or a goaltender to grow with the team. Tyutin or Nikitin don't fit that mold.

 

[Jackets16]

I send Johansen their way for the 7th pick, but only if they are sending something back to us in return. What would that equate to? Likely, something they wouldn't want to pay ... but, they say they are looking for a big center or a goaltender to grow with the team. Tyutin or Nikitin don't fit that mold.

I might do that if Lindholm was still available.