2013 New Jersey Devils (Team News, Player Discussion - Part IX)

[Bleedred]

I don't really like shooting percentage at all. It's kinda like how the Devils outshot the opposition during Maclean, but I can't remember too many games where the goalie stole the game. It was more that these were not difficult shots being taken and from low percentage scoring areas of the ice. I also watched Florida take 42 shots on Ben Scrivens last night and scored 2 goals. The other 40 were not very difficult saves. He wasn't standing on his head let's put it that way, but he made the saves he needed to make. Florida is 11th in shooting in the league, and one of the lowest scoring teams. They just don't have the talent right now with the team depleted with injuries to muster up a lot of huge scoring chances.

Now with that said though I do agree with Eggers that 28% shooting percentage is very unsustainably high, while 2% is unsustainably low. Though I am more of a believer in a higher shooting percentage being more of a anomaly than a low one. It's like if Eric Boulton scored for us last year just one goal on one of his 25 shots he would have had a 4% shooting percentage. He's expected to have a low shooting percentage because his shot sucks. Many defensemen have a lower shooting percentage too.

 

[manilaNJ]

That's why you can't look at it so black and white, either way (stats or eyes).

If you're going to look into shooting% - be it religiously or critically - I think it's important to take the extra step and look at career shooting%

How far off their average career shooting% are they (as well their average on ice sh%.
Individual sh% and on ice sh% are 2 different stats)

Use smart assumptions such as players going into or out of their prime, movement up and down the lineup, and their specific offensive role in their current position to try and predict what the trend for them should be.

Guys like Boulton and Volchenkov aren't put on the ice to shoot pucks at the net.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Basically, all that nonsense I wrote up there is saying, I don't think it's fair to really call it "regression" when we're basing his play on 36 GP after a serious clavicle injury followed by 16 GP to start a shortened season where the team, overall, was playing sloppy (despite going 8-4-3 in the games he was here)

By the eyetest, is was easy to see he was drowning out there in the minutes that he played on the backhalf of those 16 games he played this season. But I don't think that needs a full AHL season to fix.

I'd like to see what he can do out of training camp next season, first.
The kid needs to stay healthy for more than a handful of games, and he needs to stay on the same line for more than a shift in order to start moving forward with his game. I hope next season can do that for him.

this.

He hasn't regressed, in fact I think his game has improved steadily. If there are two things he needs to do, they are
1. stay healthy
2. improve his shot

Getting him something other than garbage 4th line minutes would help too. He very quickly was boosted out of the top six this season and wasn't given another chance.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

13 shots in 16 games is more symptomatic of Josefson's issues than a S%. In short he's too unidimensional offensively, if Jacob can't pass the puck, he's turning really useless in the Ozone. Of course he's never going to score 30 goals/season but just a respectable shot would change a lot of things for him.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

13 shots in 16 games is more symptomatic of Josefson's issues than a S%. In short he's too unidimensional offensively, if Jacob can't pass the puck, he's turning really useless in the Ozone. Of course he's never going to score 30 goals/season but just a respectable shot would change a lot of things for him.

I don't know why we're now assuming he can't pass the puck, but yes. If he can't pass the puck and can't shoot, he's probably not due for much as a hockey player.

I guess the biggest reason I have any confidence in Josefson at all is Pete Deboer trusted him to center Kovalchuk in Yayo's sophomore season. He impressed above every center in the organization not named Zajac. Obviously things haven't gone well since then, but at one time, Deboer seemed to like the kid. And I think we can all agree Deboer isn't always the most trusting of rookies.

 

[CerebralGenesis]

I don't know why we're now assuming he can't pass the puck, but yes. If he can't pass the puck and can't shoot, he's probably not due for much as a hockey player.

poor kid is being billed as not being able to do anything now.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

]I don't know why we're now assuming he can't pass the puck, [/B]but yes. If he can't pass the puck and can't shoot, he's probably not due for much as a hockey player.

I guess the biggest reason I have any confidence in Josefson at all is Pete Deboer trusted him to center Kovalchuk in Yayo's sophomore season. He impressed above every center in the organization not named Zajac. Obviously things haven't gone well since then, but at one time, Deboer seemed to like the kid. And I think we can all agree Deboer isn't always the most trusting of rookies.

Because that's exactly what he did for those 16 games ? Don't make me look like a Jacob hater please.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I don't really like shooting percentage at all. It's kinda like how the Devils outshot the opposition during Maclean, but I can't remember too many games where the goalie stole the game. It was more that these were not difficult shots being taken and from low percentage scoring areas of the ice. I also watched Florida take 42 shots on Ben Scrivens last night and scored 2 goals. The other 40 were not very difficult saves. He wasn't standing on his head let's put it that way, but he made the saves he needed to make. Florida is 11th in shooting in the league, and one of the lowest scoring teams. They just don't have the talent right now with the team depleted with injuries to muster up a lot of huge scoring chances.

Now with that said though I do agree with Eggers that 28% shooting percentage is very unsustainably high, while 2% is unsustainably low. Though I am more of a believer in a higher shooting percentage being more of a anomaly than a low one. It's like if Eric Boulton scored for us last year just one goal on one of his 25 shots he would have had a 4% shooting percentage. He's expected to have a low shooting percentage because his shot sucks. Many defensemen have a lower shooting percentage too.

You can come up with all the anecdotes you want, but the fact is that teams always regress towards the league average shooting percentage.

Teams don't really show any real ability to get more quality shots, as a percentage of total shots, than other teams. I know that sounds ridiculous to most, but an increasing amount of evidence points to it.

Many blogs keep track of team scoring chances and they'd found the correlation between scoring chances and Corsi/Fenwick to be extremely high, meaning that the majority of getting a scoring chance is determined by having possession of the puck to begin with, not some special ability to do something with the puck when you have it.

Now granted, players like Sidney Crosby will elevate their team's shooting percentage. However not by that much. Any team who is shooting 11-12%, or any team who is shooting 5-6%, will move towards the league average of 8-9%.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Because that's exactly what he did for those 16 games ? Don't make me look like a Jacob hater please.

i went to the albany game last night and saw Yayo and Teddy sitting together in the stands. its albany, so there was only like 300 people in an arena that seats 17500. you basically get your ticket, when they ask where you want to sit just laugh and say idc because you never look at them anyways.

so i could i have easily walked over to them. they were 2 empty sections away from us, wouldn't even have had to have that awkward scoot pass anyones legs.

but it would have been like "Yayo you are awesome, dont give up you'll def be a NHL player soon enough, and oh hey teddy....whats up....man..."

and just looking at them together in their suits made them look like a couple of mob hit men. that was good enough for me.

 

[apice3*]

You can come up with all the anecdotes you want, but the fact is that teams always regress towards the league average shooting percentage.

Teams don't really show any real ability to get more quality shots than other teams. I know that sounds ridiculous to most, but an increasing amount of evidence points to it.

Many blogs keep track of team scoring chances and they'd found the correlation between scoring chances and Corsi/Fenwick to be extremely high, meaning that the majority of getting a scoring chance is determined by having possession of the puck to begin with, not some special ability to do something with the puck when you have it.

Now granted, players like Sidney Crosby will elevate their team's shooting percentage. However not by that much. Any team who is shooting 11-12%, or any team who is shooting 5-6%, will move towards the league average of 8-9%.

I get what you're saying, and it's probably right. The thing is no one wants to believe it because theoretically it makes winning a game a totally random chance and that's not really fun at all.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I get what you're saying, and it's probably right. The thing is no one wants to believe it because theoretically it makes winning a game a totally random chance and that's not really fun at all.

The proper way to think of a hockey game, or any sporting event, is a weighted coin flip. If the Devils play the Rangers, the Devils might have a 53% chance of winning that game due to their skill level compared to the the Rangers' skill level, as well as injuries at the time and other factors such as how the team's matchup against each other.

People might respond by saying that it's clear that, during some games, teams simply "come to play" more than others. But that's also accounted for in the weighted coin flip. The nature of NHL hockey is that very few players and teams will be at 100% of their playing potential every game. When we have years and years of performance, we can get a sense of the real ability of certain teams and players, independent of the game to game variations.

I don't think it takes the fun out of watching the game. Perhaps you get less upset when your team loses, because you know a certain aspect of it is out of your team's control. But I still enjoyed the Devils' cup run just as much as anyone else despite the knowledge that a lot of it was the result of luck of the draw.

 

[CerebralGenesis]

i buy what he's selling.

 

[MartyOwns]

eh, i wouldn't spend $120 on tickets to a weighted coin flip. but to each their own

 

[Bleedred]

You can come up with all the anecdotes you want, but the fact is that teams always regress towards the league average shooting percentage.

Teams don't really show any real ability to get more quality shots, as a percentage of total shots, than other teams. I know that sounds ridiculous to most, but an increasing amount of evidence points to it.

Many blogs keep track of team scoring chances and they'd found the correlation between scoring chances and Corsi/Fenwick to be extremely high, meaning that the majority of getting a scoring chance is determined by having possession of the puck to begin with, not some special ability to do something with the puck when you have it.

Now granted, players like Sidney Crosby will elevate their team's shooting percentage. However not by that much. Any team who is shooting 11-12%, or any team who is shooting 5-6%, will move towards the league average of 8-9%.

Is 11 or 12 percent really much more than 8 or 9 though? I mean yeah 20 percent and 2 percent those are extremes, but is it not possible for a team to shoot 11 or 12 percent all year? And what about guys like Volchenkov who have a 2% shooting percentage? You don't really think he should be at 8-9% do you?

Defensemen always have a lower shooting percentage I'm pretty sure. They take shots from lower percentage scoring areas.

The Penguins have one of the highest shooting percentages in the league at 11.6% but look at all the talent they have offensively. I would bet they shoot around that rate yearly, and if they don't I'd still bet they're one of the higher teams in shooting percentage.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Is 11 or 12 percent really much more than 8 or 9 though? I mean yeah 20 percent and 2 percent those are extremes, but is it not possible for a team to shoot 11 or 12 percent all year? And what about guys like Volchenkov who have a 2% shooting percentage? You don't really think he should be at 8-9% do you?

Defensemen always have a lower shooting percentage I'm pretty sure. They take shots from lower percentage scoring areas.

The Penguins have one of the highest shooting percentages in the league at 11.6% but look at all the talent they have offensively. I would bet they shoot around that rate yearly, and if they don't I'd still bet they're one of the higher teams in shooting percentage.

Yes, 11-12% is a lot more than 8-9%. Going from 8% to 12% is a 50% increase in goals, holding shots constant. For a team that averages 30 shots per game, that's the difference between 197 goals and 295 goals over a full 82 game season.

We're also talking about team shooting percentages, not individual player shooting percentages. Obviously there is tremendous variation in individual player shooting percentages. Defenseman, in general, shoot at a lower rate. Certain forwards shoot at a higher rate than other forwards.

However, this tends to even out on a team-wide level.

And yes, teams can shoot at 11-12% for a whole season. It's been done several times in recent memory (09-10 Capitals). However, that shooting ability will eventually trend towards the league average. It might take 20 games, 40 games, or 100 games, but it will happen.

The Penguins are a good bet to shoot better than the league average given the huge amount of talent they have. However, they won't continue shooting at 11.6%. Think of 10% as a more realistic number.

I should also add that overall shooting percentage might not be the best statistic since it's skewed by special teams situations. Teams that draw more powerplays will have higher overall shooting percentages, and vice versa. Even strength shooting percentage strips that out.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

The penguins can probably maintain a higher shooting percentage than most teams bc they have crosby and malkin dishing the puck so well that they can essentially set up people for a tap in every game. kovy would probably be shooting 15+ percent if he was with malkin or crosby. it would be insane.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

eh, i wouldn't spend $120 on tickets to a weighted coin flip. but to each their own

Life is a weighted coin flip. You can always influence your odds, but there will always be uncontrollable and truly random aspects to it.

An important thing to think about is what the NHL would look like if every single team was identical - if they all had the exact same ability. In this hypothetical universe, there would still be 100 point and 75 point teams (if you don't believe me, you can run a simple excel calculation to prove it), based purely on luck. It would probably take four or five seasons for every team to approach a .500 record.

The sample size of a single season is not enough to draw definitive conclusions about the real skill of teams from simple statistics such as goals, wins, and points.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Take a look at the stuff below. Turns out, yes, Pittsburgh is probably the best shooting team in the NHL. They've been consistently good, save for one season, over the last six years.

What I'd like to point out, though, is how much better they are than the NHL median.

The Penguins average ESS% was 9.5% over the last six years. The NHL median over the last six years was 8.4%. So Pittsburgh, who is probably the best shooting team in the NHL, only managed the outperform the league median by 1.1%.

So 1.0% is the type of difference we're talking about, to separate a great shooting team from the NHL average.

2012-2013 Even Strength Shooting Percentage:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_team..._s&c=0+1+2+3+4+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20+21+22#

Pittsburgh is 4th (10.1%). Median is 8.5%.

2011-2012 Even Strength Shooting Percentage:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_team...1_s&c=0+1+2+3+4+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20+21+22

Pittsburgh is 3rd (9.9%). Median is 8.3%.

2010-2011 Even Strength Shooting Percentage:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_team...0_s&c=0+1+2+3+4+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20+21+22

Pittsburgh is 20th (8.1%). Median is 8.3%.

2009-2010 Even Strength Shooting Percentage:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_team...9_s&c=0+1+2+3+4+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20+21+22

Pittsburgh is 6th (8.9%). Median is 8.3%.

2008-2009 Even Strength Shooting Percentage:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_team...8_s&c=0+1+2+3+4+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20+21+22

Pittsburgh is 1st (10.2%). Median is 8.3%.

2007-2008 Even Strength Shooting Percentage:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_team...7_s&c=0+1+2+3+4+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20+21+22

Pittsburgh is 1st (9.5%). Median is 8.5%.

 

[VaxjoDevil]

I had weird dreams last night, one of them was all of a sudden seeing Volchenkov sitting in a tree talking to himself about a really bad pass he had made.

 

[Bleedred]

I had weird dreams last night, one of them was all of a sudden seeing Volchenkov sitting in a tree talking to himself about a really bad pass he had made.

Haha this made me LOL!

 

[DEVILS ALL THE WAY*]

I had weird dreams last night, one of them was all of a sudden seeing Volchenkov sitting in a tree talking to himself about a really bad pass he had made.

I have that "nightmare" 82 times a year

 

[Status Quo*]

I had weird dreams last night, one of them was all of a sudden seeing Volchenkov sitting in a tree talking to himself about a really bad pass he had made.

The one against Pitt earlier in the season?

 

[apice3*]

FMASC has talked me into depression

I had weird dreams last night, one of them was all of a sudden seeing Volchenkov sitting in a tree talking to himself about a really bad pass he had made.

Mine was meeting Bill Cosby on the Titanic and taking him out to dinner at Home Depot

 

[VaxjoDevil]

The most strange thing is that all these superbizarre scenarios seem totally legit in the dream. Then you wake up and you're like wtf was that.

 

[Oroku Saki*]

I had weird dreams last night, one of them was all of a sudden seeing Volchenkov sitting in a tree talking to himself about a really bad pass he had made.

"Volch did a bad"