OT: 2012-13 Lockout Discussion Part X: Is There Any Hope? Edition

[turcotte8]

I feel like people are forgetting that the drop to $60m takes place for next season, not right away. The rangers are still in a tough situation, but it isn't as dire as is made out. They have $52m tied up in 16 players.

That number doesn't include DelZotto who isn't signed yet for this year so that 52 becomes 54-55 for 17 players.

Then they also still have to sign Stepan, McDonagh, Hagelin, and maybe Sauer, all for 4-5 million dollars combined.

So they have to trade Gaborik for no cap hit coming back or lose 2 or 3 of the young players. That looks pretty dire to me.

 

[Jabroni]

"@DarrenDreger: NHL-NHLPA conference call is tentatively scheduled to begin this morning at 11am."

 

[Tawnos]

That number doesn't include DelZotto who isn't signed yet for this year so that 52 becomes 54-55 for 17 players.

Then they also still have to sign Stepan, McDonagh, Hagelin, and maybe Sauer, all for 4-5 million dollars combined.

So they have to trade Gaborik for no cap hit coming back or lose 2 or 3 of the young players. That looks pretty dire to me.

Check your math again. If they're resigning those 4 guys for 4-5m combined, and they're at 54-55m for 17 guys, they'd come in under cap

McDonagh and Stepan are the issue. The Rangers will be able to pay for Hagelins and Sauers raises by clearing Asham or Rupp (replaced by Haley, who is already on the roster). If you have to sacrifice Sauer or Stralman, you do it. It would suck to not have Sauer, but it would have a much much smaller impact on the team than trading Gaborik. It should not have to go further than losing 2 relatively minor players on the roster.

Don't get me wrong, it's close. But the numbers are workable.

 

[LORDE]

Sauer is the least of our worries... He's done in all likelihood, unless I missed some good news.

 

[Tawnos]

Sauer is the least of our worries... He's done in all likelihood, unless I missed some good news.

Agreed. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him resigned for less.

 

[Bring Back Avery]

Hello everyone, I'm new to this site. I've been following along for a little while now, trying to keep up with the CBA, so I decided to sign up. I hope they finally come to an agreement within the next few days. But I hope they raise the cap limit to $65mil. I'd hate to lose Gabby or some other young players.

 

[BBKers]

Hello everyone, I'm new to this site. I've been following along for a little while now, trying to keep up with the CBA, so I decided to sign up. I hope they finally come to an agreement within the next few days. But I hope they raise the cap limit to $65mil. I'd hate to lose Gabby or some other young players.

Welcome to the Madhouse!

 

[turcotte8]

Check your math again. If they're resigning those 4 guys for 4-5m combined, and they're at 54-55m for 17 guys, they'd come in under cap

The point I was making is that there is no way they can sign those players for 4-5 million total. It will take around 10 million for all of them.
Putting them 5 million over so either Gaborik has to go or some of the young players have to not be signed.

 

[Tawnos]

The point I was making is that there is no way they can sign those players for 4-5 million total. It will take around 10 million for all of them.
Putting them 5 million over so either Gaborik has to go or some of the young players have to not be signed.

Got it. Then I just disagree on your player values. Hagelin isn't going to get more 1.5. Sauer will maybe be about the same. Stepan will be around $2m. McDonagh around $3m. These numbers might sound lowballed, but remember two things. First, Sather plays hardball on 2nd contracts. Combined with the fact that no GM is going to offer sheet a player on Sathers team, and you're looking at more than reasonable deals for these guys. Second, take everything you think you know about player values and reduce it by ~15%. The market is going to change.

We will be looking at maybe 7-8m for the 4 guys.

There are other options too. In addition to dumping Asham, you can dump Pyatt and Rupp for guys like Lindberg and Yogan (just examples) which would save another $1m.

 

[Bring Back Avery]

Welcome to the Madhouse!

Thank you.

Also, Does anyone think some of our higher payed players might be willing to redo their contracts to help keep us under the cap if they lower it like Sindy Crosby did for the Pens or is that just a pipe dream?

 

[Tawnos]

Thank you.

Also, Does anyone think some of our higher payed players might be willing to redo their contracts to help keep us under the cap if they lower it like Sindy Crosby did for the Pens or is that just a pipe dream?

It's a pipe dream, but not because they wouldn't be willing to. In the NHL, you aren't allowed to renegotiate existing deals. Crosbys new contract was an extension, not a renegotiation, and doesn't start until his current deal ends.

 

[Blueblood2]

I think we are all forgeting one key factor here.....THE ABILITY TO TRADE FOR CAP SPACE

You have to figure that the Rangers will be in on that if they need to in order to keep the team together.

Will teams effectively be able to "buy" salary cap space by trading some low level player and a boatload of cash to one of the "poor teams"?

 

[Levitate]

Check your math again. If they're resigning those 4 guys for 4-5m combined, and they're at 54-55m for 17 guys, they'd come in under cap

McDonagh and Stepan are the issue. The Rangers will be able to pay for Hagelins and Sauers raises by clearing Asham or Rupp (replaced by Haley, who is already on the roster). If you have to sacrifice Sauer or Stralman, you do it. It would suck to not have Sauer, but it would have a much much smaller impact on the team than trading Gaborik. It should not have to go further than losing 2 relatively minor players on the roster.

Don't get me wrong, it's close. But the numbers are workable.

Also we need to remember that the new CBA will drive down contract prices in the short term at least, and part of its goal is to bring back the "reasonable second contract" that Sather has always liked.

I'm not gonna run the numbers to figure it out but I would say that I think it's entirely possible that Sather and company will try to give out small, one year contracts to the likes of Hagelin, McDonagh, and Stepan, so they can squeeze another full year of Gaborik and Nash together, and then give them bigger contracts when Gaborik's expires and the cap should theoretically be higher anyways (though of course there will be plenty of other guys needing new contracts at that point)

 

[BBKers]

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
FORWARDS
Rick Nash ($7.800m) / Brad Richards ($6.667m) / Marian Gaborik ($7.500m)
Taylor Pyatt ($1.550m) / Brian Boyle ($1.700m) / Ryan Callahan ($4.275m)
Chris Kreider ($1.325m) / Mike Rupp ($1.500m)
Arron Asham ($1.000m)

DEFENSEMEN
Marc Staal ($3.975m) / Dan Girardi ($3.325m)
Michael Del Zotto ($2.500m) / Anton Stralman ($1.700m)
Stu Bickel ($0.750m)

GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m)
Martin Biron ($1.300m)

------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $60,000,000
CAP PAYROLL: $53,741,667
BONUSES: $637,500
CAP SPACE (16-man roster): $8,895,833

MDZ signs now for 2 years at $2,5M (this number has been speculated on before)

RFAs left to sign
McD $3,5M+
Stepan $2,5 - 3M
Hagelin $2M+
TOTAL $8M+
CapSpace = around $0,5M (with only a 19 man roster)

What to do?

First maybe - Pyatt, Rupp and Asham ($4M in space) might possibly be able to be replaced by Fast, Lindberg, Miller ($2,9M in space). Not sure if they could... This would create another $1,1 M = $1,6M total space

McIllraith maybe is forced to graduate midseason - maybe replacing Stralman. Saves another $0,4M

Still we would need one more defender and 2 fwds on the team
Good lord, Newbury, Haley and Gilroy at league minimums?
Would fit cap wise, barely...

Sauer ??? retires ??? or gets the same contract basically

Could we get rid of Rupp, Asham, Stralman and Pyatt without taking salary back to do this?
Hardly!!!

So somebody "untouchable" will most likely need to leave the squad with a $60M cap. Which I doubt we will see.
Gaborik??
Most likely
Boyle (not an Elliot Ness guy btw)??
Could be...
Time will tell

At $60M we are in a fix
But we will not see a $60M cap next year. It is impossible out of several different aspects.
At $64,3M to $65M we otoh are good
Can keep Ghidorah plus resign all the RFAs plus let all the prospects develop at a reasonable pace in CT next year (Miller, Big Mac, Fast, Lindberg, Thomas, Hrivik, MSC and whoever else). That would be optimal.
Make it happen.

 

[RangerBoy]

We had this discussion a few months ago when the NHL wanted to abolish salary arbitration and require players to have 10 years of service before becoming a group III. Salary arbitration and free agency will remain the same. 4 years for players signing their ELC at 18-20. 3 years for 21. 7 or 27 for group III. Ryan McDonagh will be arbitration eligible. Michael Del Zotto will be arb eligible if he signs a 1 year SPC. Go look at what the Caps gave John Carlson. 6 years/$23.8M. $3.8M in 12-13 which is non-arb year. $4M annually the next 5 years. It will cost the Rangers $4M annually for each defensemen. DZ will not be cheap in a short term deal. McD will cost more than $4M annually. Arbitration eligible in July. For the Rangers to have Cup aspirations,McD will be a big part of that. Carl Hagelin is also arbitration eligible. 22-23 years old. 2 years. Derek Stepan is not arb eligible but he will get a very nice raise especially if the Rangers are a top team in the east and reach the conference finals again.

 

[egelband]

Also we need to remember that the new CBA will drive down contract prices in the short term at least, and part of its goal is to bring back the "reasonable second contract" that Sather has always liked.

I'm not gonna run the numbers to figure it out but I would say that I think it's entirely possible that Sather and company will try to give out small, one year contracts to the likes of Hagelin, McDonagh, and Stepan, so they can squeeze another full year of Gaborik and Nash together, and then give them bigger contracts when Gaborik's expires and the cap should theoretically be higher anyways (though of course there will be plenty of other guys needing new contracts at that point)

exactly. it's a waste of time - i think - to start worrying about specific contracts. all teams will be in the same boat and the rangers generally run a tight ship, finance-wise. i think things will balance out and they should have about as good a chance as they had before to keep their core together.

 

[Dr. Ogrodnick]

At $60M we are in a fix
But we will not see a $60M cap next year. It is impossible out of several different aspects.
At $64,3M to $65M we otoh are good
Can keep Ghidorah plus resign all the RFAs plus let all the prospects develop at a reasonable pace in CT next year (Miller, Big Mac, Fast, Lindberg, Thomas, Hrivik, MSC and whoever else). That would be optimal.
Make it happen.

I fully expect the PA to push back on that 60 mil number, and as you have mentioned it is operationally impossible for plenty of teams. I expect that number will settle around 62-63 mil, which will be tight, but workable.

 

[RangerBoy]

Will teams effectively be able to "buy" salary cap space by trading some low level player and a boatload of cash to one of the "poor teams"?

Its not in the NHL proposal. It not even in the latest NHLPA proposal.

The PA proposed that nearly 5 months ago. Non-starter.

 

[RangerBoy]

The big 2nd contract will still exist. Salary arbitration at 2 or 3 or 4 years forces the team to pay the player early. The NHL proposed abolishing salary arbitration. Then they tried to make it 5 years for players 18-20. Its the same system again. Free agency was proposed at 10 years. Then 8 or 28. Stays the same. Free agency at 7 or 27 forces the team to pay the player earlier. The NHL proposed a 5 year ELC. 2 years guaranteed and 3 option years. Then they proposed a 2 year ELC figuring a player won't the stats for 2nd contact. However,the NHL backed off. Its the same system. 3 years for players 18-21,etc. All of these systems have remained the same. Fehr wouldn't budge on these.

 

[Tawnos]

The big second deal might still exist, but I don't see Sather handing out anything exorbitant. I guess time will tell which one of us is right.

Keep in mind that Carlsons $4m in old CBA money is worth more like $3.4m now.

 

[NYRSchrute217]

Remember when we all wanted Corey Perry in the offseason? Not happening. I don't think we'll necessarily have to trade Gaborik but Boyle and Rupp need to be replaced by guys making under 1M. But I'm willing to take the 60M cap if we have a season this year.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

I think the players will accept this offer in its entirety with the exception of wanting a cap of $65 million next season. I think the owners might take that or counter w $63 million.

Rangers won't be that hard up if that's the case.

One question though: Did the owners offer mention anything thing about players contracts counting in the AHL?

 

[iamitter]

If the cap only goes down to 65 mil, I wonder if Sather will do something completely out of his ass and trade Gaborik for something like Staal got last year and then try to sign Perry.

 

[RGY]

Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
CBA conf calls\discussions expected to drift into early evening. Told calls are purely "informational." No bargaining going on.


No surprise here. Why would there be bargaining? It's the NHL saying you take it or see you next year. Can they just accept reality knowing it won't get any better.

 

[Jackpot]

Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
CBA conf calls\discussions expected to drift into early evening. Told calls are purely "informational." No bargaining going on.


No surprise here. Why would there be bargaining? It's the NHL saying you take it or see you next year. Can they just accept reality knowing it won't get any better.

Offer won't be accepted, has already been reported the PA would counter. Not saying the framework isn't there, but the bargaining is no where near it's conclusion. If this is the NHL's take it or leave it, there won't be a season...