1OA 2025

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Here are the forwards from the last ten seasons that played on the USNDTP and went to the OHL the next season.

Tyler Boucher - 1.06 PPG on NDTP ----> 0.58 PPG in the OHL

Jeremy Bracco - 1.45 PPG on NDTP ----> 1.31 PPG in the OHL

Kristian Epperson - 0.38 PPG on NDTP ----> 1.37 PPG in the OHL (season not completed)

Liam Gilmartin - 0.70 PPG on NDTP ----> 0.62 PPG in the OHL

Christian Humphreys - 1.12 on NDTP ----> 1.14 PPG in the OHL (season not completed)

Sasha Pastujov - 1.59 PPG on NDTP ----> 1.17 PPG in the OHL

Matthew Tkachuk - 1.46 PPG on NDTP ---> 1.88 PPG in the OHL

Most of their averages stayed the same or went down. Hagens had 1.76 PPG last season. I gave him the benefit of the doubt in this scenario

I am referring to USHL stats, not NTDP stats. There's a difference. Hagens had a 1.81 PPG in the USHL last year. That was .31 higher than every single player in the league. That would've been second in the OHL last year. You're accounting for virtually no improvement from Hagens. If one was to suggest he'd be at the same threshold as Martone, he'd only improve .09 year over year from USHL to OHL.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

If Hagens doesn't go first, based on the data we have (there's still months to play, so you never know, but nothing has changed so far this season and I don't see why it's about to), I will finally join all the European countries in believing the draft is at worst heavily biased towards the Canadians and potentially even just rigged for them because they control all the institutions. Americans can't get a fair shot if Hagens isn't going first above Martone, Schaefer, and Misa.

You might celebrate your country getting the first pick for the 5th year in 6 (and we're already told Canada claimed 2026 and 2027, so it'll be 7 in 8), but you risk living in an echo chamber. All the Canadians risk this. When you've arrived at a situation when the whole world thinks the NHL draft is a completely unfair process, except for Canadian players, we don't have a remotely above board system. We also now have a situation where the Canadian IIHF president has banned one of the two biggest competitors in international hockey from competition.

Banning competitors and rigging the draft in their favor is a good way to turn away interest from outside Canada. Maybe Canada should start playing hockey between provinces in their own echo chamber, and the rest of the world can live in a fair system where everyone is treated the same.

...so you hate Canada...so everything is a Conspiracy...lecturing "Canada" on fair treatment is a hoot coming from you...

 

[Lumber]

Canada hardly controls the NHL.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

...so you hate Canada...so everything is a Conspiracy...lecturing "Canada" on fair treatment is a hoot coming from you...

View attachment 975817

Echo-chamber, as I said.

Canadians are the only ones that believe it's a fair system.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Echo-chamber, as I said.

Canadians are the only ones that believe it's a fair system.

...so you believe the Draft is subsidizing Canadian prospects??...sounds like a 25% Tariff on all Canadian Prospects is required...Make American Hockey Great Again!!...

 

[SarniaStingFan]

I am referring to USHL stats, not NTDP stats. There's a difference. Hagens had a 1.81 PPG in the USHL last year. That was .31 higher than every single player in the league. That would've been second in the OHL last year. You're accounting for virtually no improvement from Hagens. If one was to suggest he'd be at the same threshold as Martone, he'd only improve .09 year over year from USHL to OHL.

That doesn't change the fact that it's hard to raise your PPG that much once you've reached an elite level of production. I'll give you some examples of what I'm talking about:

John Tavares - 2.00 PPG in his DY-1 ----> 1.86 PPG in his DY (OHL)

Zeev Buium - 1.19 PPG in his DY ----> 1.23 PPG in his DY+1 (NCAA)
Mitch Marner - 2.00 PPG in his DY ----> 2.04 PPG in his DY+1 (OHL)

Let's say Hagens production in the OHL last season would be the same as it was in the USHL (1.81 PPG). It would be hard for him to see a large uptick in production at that point. That's why I say I think his production would be aroud Martone's (1.90 PPG)

 

[Corso]

I agree there is a plethora of talent in both leagues

It bothers me when I see an 18 year old kid put up over a PPG in the NCAA and its frowned upon. When in reality he would score 2+ ppg in the CHL. Simply put, its a far more difficult level of play

As you know I'm a big Hagens fan but he is no longer considered the prohibitive favorite for 1OA and yes his production is part of the reason why. He hasn't performed at a level shown by other elite freshmen 1OA candidates in the previous years. It really has nothing to do with dismissing the difficulty of playing in the NCAA as a true freshman or over rating the CHL.

That doesn't change the fact that it's hard to raise your PPG that much once you've reached an elite level of production. I'll give you some examples of what I'm talking about:

John Tavares - 2.00 PPG in his DY-1 ----> 1.86 PPG in his DY (OHL)

Zeev Buium - 1.19 PPG in his DY ----> 1.23 PPG in his DY+1 (NCAA)
Mitch Marner - 2.00 PPG in his DY ----> 2.04 PPG in his DY+1 (OHL)

Let's say Hagens production in the OHL last season would be the same as it was in the USHL (1.81 PPG). It would be hard for him to see a large uptick in production at that point. That's why I say I think his production would be aroud Martone's (1.90 PPG)

A fair analysis.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I am referring to USHL stats, not NTDP stats. There's a difference. Hagens had a 1.81 PPG in the USHL last year. That was .31 higher than every single player in the league. That would've been second in the OHL last year. You're accounting for virtually no improvement from Hagens. If one was to suggest he'd be at the same threshold as Martone, he'd only improve .09 year over year from USHL to OHL.

Look there's obviously no way to convert stats between the CHL and the NCAA, but someone did build an NHL equivelency calculator. This is by no means a perfect tool but nobody else has come up with anything else: NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

According to Dobber's NHLe tool:

Misa's 99 pts in 47 gms= 56 nhl pts (82 gms)
Martone 76 in 40 gms= 50
Hagens 29 pts in 27 gms= 35

Hagens is a fair ways behind. So I checked the top scoring draft eligibles from the dub and the Q:
Ben Kindel: 82 pts in 49 gms= 41
Caleb Desnoyers: 67 in 44 gms= 35

So Hagens is producing the same as Desnoyers this year. Maybe he should be in the conversation for #1 OA this year.

 

[Mattb124]

If Hagens doesn't go first, based on the data we have (there's still months to play, so you never know, but nothing has changed so far this season and I don't see why it's about to), I will finally join all the European countries in believing the draft is at worst heavily biased towards the Canadians and potentially even just rigged for them because they control all the institutions. Americans can't get a fair shot if Hagens isn't going first above Martone, Schaefer, and Misa.

You might celebrate your country getting the first pick for the 5th year in 6 (and we're already told Canada claimed 2026 and 2027, so it'll be 7 in 8), but you risk living in an echo chamber. All the Canadians risk this. When you've arrived at a situation when the whole world thinks the NHL draft is a completely unfair process, except for Canadian players, we don't have a remotely above board system. We also now have a situation where the Canadian IIHF president has banned one of the two biggest competitors in international hockey from competition.

Banning competitors and rigging the draft in their favor is a good way to turn away interest from outside Canada. Maybe Canada should start playing hockey between provinces in their own echo chamber, and the rest of the world can live in a fair system where everyone is treated the same.

You may want to loosen your tinfoil hat a bit, seems it’s cutting off the circulation above your ears.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

That doesn't change the fact that it's hard to raise your PPG that much once you've reached an elite level of production. I'll give you some examples of what I'm talking about:

John Tavares - 2.00 PPG in his DY-1 ----> 1.86 PPG in his DY (OHL)

Zeev Buium - 1.19 PPG in his DY ----> 1.23 PPG in his DY+1 (NCAA)
Mitch Marner - 2.00 PPG in his DY ----> 2.04 PPG in his DY+1 (OHL)

Let's say Hagens production in the OHL last season would be the same as it was in the USHL (1.81 PPG). It would be hard for him to see a large uptick in production at that point. That's why I say I think his production would be aroud Martone's (1.90 PPG)

I can grant you he’s not likely to increase to like 2.75 or something. I’m just saying I think it’s ridiculous to project his PPG below Misa. Hagens has been the one to put up better stats any year they’ve played roughly similar level leagues or played at the same international tournaments. To not even grant him similar level production to Misa is being unfair. Quite frankly if we’re just guessing, the smart money based on history is Hagens having the better stats.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Look there's obviously no way to convert stats between the CHL and the NCAA, but someone did build an NHL equivelency calculator. This is by no means a perfect tool but nobody else has come up with anything else: NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

According to Dobber's NHLe tool:

Misa's 99 pts in 47 gms= 56 nhl pts (82 gms)
Martone 76 in 40 gms= 50
Hagens 29 pts in 27 gms= 35

Hagens is a fair ways behind. So I checked the top scoring draft eligibles from the dub and the Q:
Ben Kindel: 82 pts in 49 gms= 41
Caleb Desnoyers: 67 in 44 gms= 35

So Hagens is producing the same as Desnoyers this year. Maybe he should be in the conversation for #1 OA this year.

I totally reject that. Calculating Hagens with the average NCAA schedule is a total farce. BC is on pace to play potentially the hardest NCAA schedule ever. This is the equivalent of like Allsvenskan level competition. They’ve played 16 of 27 games against top 11 teams in the nation. Denver (so like Zeev Buium and company) has played 4 of 28 games against top 11 teams.

This is the problem with trying to compare stats across very differently structured leagues where schedules aren’t formatted into the same way. There’s no fair way to do it. Does that calculator account for that OHL scoring is up?

NHLe is not remotely predictive. The only thing you can use as predictive is when players play in the same setting or roughly similar level leagues.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

the average NCAA schedule

The model didn't use the average NCAA schedule. It used the average Hockey East schedule.
BC plays the toughest schedule? They're the top recruiting school in the country.
They're supposed to be the toughest matchup in the country, not whine about playing other top teams. Hagens plays with more top players than he plays against.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

There is no anti-Hagens hate or pro-canada needs the 1st overall pick...people just prefer Schaefer and Misa to Hagens. That's all there is to it.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

There is no anti-Hagens hate or pro-canada needs the 1st overall pick...people just prefer Schaefer and Misa to Hagens. That's all there is to it.

 

[bigdog16]

The model didn't use the average NCAA schedule. It used the average Hockey East schedule.
BC plays the toughest schedule? They're the top recruiting school in the country.
They're supposed to be the toughest matchup in the country, not whine about playing other top teams. Hagens plays with more top players than he plays against.

Where did BC whine about playing other top teams?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Brother, I watch plenty of BC games, I literally pay for ESPN+ so I can watch NCAA hockey. I understand that NCAA scoring is down this year. I am not making this assessment purely on point totals.

If you want to keep pretending that Hagens is the best player in this draft and there's a Canadian conspiracy against him (even though I am American and I ALSO don't care for Martone), do what makes you happy. As an American a fan of a team who is most likely to be drafting third overall this summer, I desperately want Hagens to show out and prove he's the best player in this draft (or at least second best). That's why I'm so ticked that he hasn't. If I was rooting against him or wanted him to fail, I wouldn't be so upset that he hasn't met my expectations.

I'm so sick of this argument with you, especially when you bring nothing to the table outside of conspiracy theories and 'cooks and cleaners' rhetoric.

Yep it’s all about whining and conspiracy theorists, I just scan the posts now, don’t really read them, as it always the same excuses, with no new material,

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Where did BC whine about playing other top teams?

BC doesn't. James Hagens doesn't. HF Pavel does.

 

[bigdog16]

BC doesn't. James Hagens doesn't. HF Pavel does.

But regarding the scheduling, he isn't making it up. They actually track strength of schedule in NCAA, and BC has by far the hardest schedule in the country and it's not particularly close: Men's Division I RPI | Ratings Percentage Index | Rankings - College Hockey | USCHO.com

 

[NTDP]

But regarding the scheduling, he isn't making it up. They actually track strength of schedule in NCAA, and BC has by far the hardest schedule in the country and it's not particularly close: Men's Division I RPI | Ratings Percentage Index | Rankings - College Hockey | USCHO.com

People don't understand the meat grinder that Hockey East actually is. Then factor playing top 3 Michigan St. twice, then Western Mich & St. Cloud St. from the NCHC.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

People don't understand the meat grinder that Hockey East actually is. Then factor playing top 3 Michigan St. twice, then Western Mich & St. Cloud St. from the NCHC.

No i don't think some of you get it. BC are the big dogs, who gives a shit what their schedule is. Are they scheduling AHL, KHL and SHL teams? No? Then shut up about the scheduling when you out recruit every single other college in the country. Just to make it as clear as i can:
BC Is the favorite in every game they play

 

[SarniaStingFan]

I can grant you he’s not likely to increase to like 2.75 or something. I’m just saying I think it’s ridiculous to project his PPG below Misa. Hagens has been the one to put up better stats any year they’ve played roughly similar level leagues or played at the same international tournaments. To not even grant him similar level production to Misa is being unfair. Quite frankly if we’re just guessing, the smart money based on history is Hagens having the better stats.

As an aside, I don't think Hagens DY-2 was more impressive than Misa's DY-2. Misa set the record for the highest PPG of an exceptional status player in the OHL above guys like McDavid and Tavares. Hagens 1.29 PPG at 16 in the USHL is impressive but not historic. He was behind players like J. Hughes, Celebrini, Vanek, and Eiserman. Hagens was more impressive in his DY-1.

Here's my main point. Past production doesn't equal future production. If it did, Hagens would have far better numbers in the NCAA this season. Jack Eichel went from putting up 1.88 PPG in the USHL to 1.78 PPG in the NCAA the next season. Clayton Keller went from putting up 1.61 PPG in the USHL to 1.45 PPG in the NCAA the next season.

So by that logic, Hagens 1.81 PPG in the USHL should translate to roughly 1.65 PPG in the NCAA this season. Yet it hasn't. He's averaging 1.08 PPG.

Let me give you an example of this from this draft. Jack Ivankovic posted a .915 sv% last season in the OHL while Alexei Medvedev put up a .904 sv% in Junior B. By your logic, Ivankovic should have better numbers this season. Yet, Medvedev has a .922 sv% while Ivankovic sits at an .898 sv%.

I've seen you put Medvedev ahead of Ivankovic in your draft rankings. I've seen you say that Ivankovic (a small goalie) should fall down the rankings but you're unwillingly to say the same about Hagens (a small forward). I don't believe I'm being unfair to Hagens when I can back up my reasoning with statisical evidence

 

[NTDP]

No i don't think some of you get it. BC are the big dogs, who gives a shit what their schedule is. Are they scheduling AHL, KHL and SHL teams? No? Then shut up about the scheduling when you out recruit every single other college in the country. Just to make it as clear as i can:
BC Is the favorite in every game they play

You just don't know what you don't know. Later man.

 

[HoweFan]

I’m really getting sick of this argument. I’m a proud Canadian but I don’t give a crap what country Detroit drafts from as long as he works out. If we were drafting top four I would be happy with whoever we pick including Hagens

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The model didn't use the average NCAA schedule. It used the average Hockey East schedule.
BC plays the toughest schedule? They're the top recruiting school in the country.
They're supposed to be the toughest matchup in the country, not whine about playing other top teams. Hagens plays with more top players than he plays against.

Okay so regardless, the average Hockey East Schedule is still significantly different from essentially like the hardest strength of schedule ever in NCAA history (someone posted the link to it one of these pages, but I can't find it now) that is calculated via a mathematical formula weighing each game.

I don't think it does service to the schedule BC is playing this year. They aren't really playing an NCAA schedule. They're playing whatever is the next highest league up schedule (probably like Allsvenskan).

 

[Juxtaposer]

But regarding the scheduling, he isn't making it up. They actually track strength of schedule in NCAA, and BC has by far the hardest schedule in the country and it's not particularly close: Men's Division I RPI | Ratings Percentage Index | Rankings - College Hockey | USCHO.com

It was never that we didn't believe that to be true, and more that it doesn't solely account for Hagens' subpar performance this season. I get that he's played some tough teams. I get that his coach isn't utilizing him optimally, I get that BC isn't a run-and-gun OHL team and their PP is bad. It's not strictly about production.

I have no doubt that Hagens is going to be a good NHL player. He may even be a great one. That's not in question as far as I'm concerned. The problem is that doesn't look like a future star NHL player. He has no more physical disadvantages than Perreault or Smith did last season. He has no more age disadvantage than Celebrini or Buium or Fantilli before him. He isn't being asked to carry totally incompetent linemates. He isn't playing on a bad team that's constantly stuck in their own zone with little opportunity to create offense.

The Hagens proponents on this forum anointed him 1st overall before the season started yet are ignoring the uncomfortable fact that Hagens hasn't taken a step forward from what he was last season, while Schaefer and Misa have taken HUGE strides forward. Yes, I understand that Hagens has historically out-produced his draft classmates. That's why he was ranked #1 going into the season. But ignoring draft-year performance feels like an absolutely insane way to scout. Especially when the same people making excuses for Hagens lackluster stats this year are criticizing Schaefer's and Misa's lackluster stats from last year, whining about how hard Hagens has it this year and ignoring Schaefer's soul-crushing off-ice circumstances or Misa's crappy deployment last season.

Hagens goes whole games being largely invisible. I had hoped that that being separated from Leonard would give Hagens the opportunity to be puck-dominant and show that he can be The Guy on a line at a high level of hockey and prove that he deserves to go #1 overall. But every time I tune in, and I tune in a lot, I'm left disappointed.

I realize that it's a tall ask for an 18 year old to dominate college hockey. Yet other players, some of whom didn't even go 1st overall in their own draft years, did it. If Hagens is a 1st overall-caliber prospect, then why is he so often outplayed by his linemates? Why is he so often not the puck-carrier on his line? Hell, he was outplayed by Stiga at the Beanpot and a non-insignificant number of BC games I've caught.

To reiterate, all but one of his 9 WJC points came against Switzerland, Latvia, and Germany. He went invisible for long stretches against the teams that mattered. He certainly wasn't bad by any means and I wouldn't ding him for it (after all, most of Celebrini's points came against bad teams last WJC too), but holding Hagens' WJC performance up like a great victory seems foolish to me.

Again, if he was putting up the same numbers he has been but looked the part of a future true #1C, I would be in this thread defending him. I want him to succeed. And I don't think anyone sane is suggesting he won't go or deserves not to go top-4 at the absolute latest this summer. But it's exhausting seeing the Hagens defenders make the same excuses and not actually address what we're all seeing on the ice.

And fin.