1OA 2025

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Here are the forwards from the last ten seasons that played on the USNDTP and went to the OHL the next season.

Tyler Boucher - 1.06 PPG on NDTP ----> 0.58 PPG in the OHL

Jeremy Bracco - 1.45 PPG on NDTP ----> 1.31 PPG in the OHL

Kristian Epperson - 0.38 PPG on NDTP ----> 1.37 PPG in the OHL (season not completed)

Liam Gilmartin - 0.70 PPG on NDTP ----> 0.62 PPG in the OHL

Christian Humphreys - 1.12 on NDTP ----> 1.14 PPG in the OHL (season not completed)

Sasha Pastujov - 1.59 PPG on NDTP ----> 1.17 PPG in the OHL

Matthew Tkachuk - 1.46 PPG on NDTP ---> 1.88 PPG in the OHL

Most of their averages stayed the same or went down. Hagens had 1.76 PPG last season. I gave him the benefit of the doubt in this scenario

I am referring to USHL stats, not NTDP stats. There's a difference. Hagens had a 1.81 PPG in the USHL last year. That was .31 higher than every single player in the league. That would've been second in the OHL last year. You're accounting for virtually no improvement from Hagens. If one was to suggest he'd be at the same threshold as Martone, he'd only improve .09 year over year from USHL to OHL.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

If Hagens doesn't go first, based on the data we have (there's still months to play, so you never know, but nothing has changed so far this season and I don't see why it's about to), I will finally join all the European countries in believing the draft is at worst heavily biased towards the Canadians and potentially even just rigged for them because they control all the institutions. Americans can't get a fair shot if Hagens isn't going first above Martone, Schaefer, and Misa.

You might celebrate your country getting the first pick for the 5th year in 6 (and we're already told Canada claimed 2026 and 2027, so it'll be 7 in 8), but you risk living in an echo chamber. All the Canadians risk this. When you've arrived at a situation when the whole world thinks the NHL draft is a completely unfair process, except for Canadian players, we don't have a remotely above board system. We also now have a situation where the Canadian IIHF president has banned one of the two biggest competitors in international hockey from competition.

Banning competitors and rigging the draft in their favor is a good way to turn away interest from outside Canada. Maybe Canada should start playing hockey between provinces in their own echo chamber, and the rest of the world can live in a fair system where everyone is treated the same.

...so you hate Canada...so everything is a Conspiracy...lecturing "Canada" on fair treatment is a hoot coming from you...

 

[Lumber]

Canada hardly controls the NHL.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

...so you hate Canada...so everything is a Conspiracy...lecturing "Canada" on fair treatment is a hoot coming from you...

View attachment 975817

Echo-chamber, as I said.

Canadians are the only ones that believe it's a fair system.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Echo-chamber, as I said.

Canadians are the only ones that believe it's a fair system.

...so you believe the Draft is subsidizing Canadian prospects??...sounds like a 25% Tariff on all Canadian Prospects is required...Make American Hockey Great Again!!...

 

[SarniaStingFan]

I am referring to USHL stats, not NTDP stats. There's a difference. Hagens had a 1.81 PPG in the USHL last year. That was .31 higher than every single player in the league. That would've been second in the OHL last year. You're accounting for virtually no improvement from Hagens. If one was to suggest he'd be at the same threshold as Martone, he'd only improve .09 year over year from USHL to OHL.

That doesn't change the fact that it's hard to raise your PPG that much once you've reached an elite level of production. I'll give you some examples of what I'm talking about:

John Tavares - 2.00 PPG in his DY-1 ----> 1.86 PPG in his DY (OHL)

Zeev Buium - 1.19 PPG in his DY ----> 1.23 PPG in his DY+1 (NCAA)
Mitch Marner - 2.00 PPG in his DY ----> 2.04 PPG in his DY+1 (OHL)

Let's say Hagens production in the OHL last season would be the same as it was in the USHL (1.81 PPG). It would be hard for him to see a large uptick in production at that point. That's why I say I think his production would be aroud Martone's (1.90 PPG)

 

[Corso]

I agree there is a plethora of talent in both leagues

It bothers me when I see an 18 year old kid put up over a PPG in the NCAA and its frowned upon. When in reality he would score 2+ ppg in the CHL. Simply put, its a far more difficult level of play

As you know I'm a big Hagens fan but he is no longer considered the prohibitive favorite for 1OA and yes his production is part of the reason why. He hasn't performed at a level shown by other elite freshmen 1OA candidates in the previous years. It really has nothing to do with dismissing the difficulty of playing in the NCAA as a true freshman or over rating the CHL.

That doesn't change the fact that it's hard to raise your PPG that much once you've reached an elite level of production. I'll give you some examples of what I'm talking about:

John Tavares - 2.00 PPG in his DY-1 ----> 1.86 PPG in his DY (OHL)

Zeev Buium - 1.19 PPG in his DY ----> 1.23 PPG in his DY+1 (NCAA)
Mitch Marner - 2.00 PPG in his DY ----> 2.04 PPG in his DY+1 (OHL)

Let's say Hagens production in the OHL last season would be the same as it was in the USHL (1.81 PPG). It would be hard for him to see a large uptick in production at that point. That's why I say I think his production would be aroud Martone's (1.90 PPG)

A fair analysis.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I am referring to USHL stats, not NTDP stats. There's a difference. Hagens had a 1.81 PPG in the USHL last year. That was .31 higher than every single player in the league. That would've been second in the OHL last year. You're accounting for virtually no improvement from Hagens. If one was to suggest he'd be at the same threshold as Martone, he'd only improve .09 year over year from USHL to OHL.

Look there's obviously no way to convert stats between the CHL and the NCAA, but someone did build an NHL equivelency calculator. This is by no means a perfect tool but nobody else has come up with anything else: NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

According to Dobber's NHLe tool:

Misa's 99 pts in 47 gms= 56 nhl pts (82 gms)
Martone 76 in 40 gms= 50
Hagens 29 pts in 27 gms= 35

Hagens is a fair ways behind. So I checked the top scoring draft eligibles from the dub and the Q:
Ben Kindel: 82 pts in 49 gms= 41
Caleb Desnoyers: 67 in 44 gms= 35

So Hagens is producing the same as Desnoyers this year. Maybe he should be in the conversation for #1 OA this year.

 

[Mattb124]

If Hagens doesn't go first, based on the data we have (there's still months to play, so you never know, but nothing has changed so far this season and I don't see why it's about to), I will finally join all the European countries in believing the draft is at worst heavily biased towards the Canadians and potentially even just rigged for them because they control all the institutions. Americans can't get a fair shot if Hagens isn't going first above Martone, Schaefer, and Misa.

You might celebrate your country getting the first pick for the 5th year in 6 (and we're already told Canada claimed 2026 and 2027, so it'll be 7 in 8), but you risk living in an echo chamber. All the Canadians risk this. When you've arrived at a situation when the whole world thinks the NHL draft is a completely unfair process, except for Canadian players, we don't have a remotely above board system. We also now have a situation where the Canadian IIHF president has banned one of the two biggest competitors in international hockey from competition.

Banning competitors and rigging the draft in their favor is a good way to turn away interest from outside Canada. Maybe Canada should start playing hockey between provinces in their own echo chamber, and the rest of the world can live in a fair system where everyone is treated the same.

You may want to loosen your tinfoil hat a bit, seems it’s cutting off the circulation above your ears.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

That doesn't change the fact that it's hard to raise your PPG that much once you've reached an elite level of production. I'll give you some examples of what I'm talking about:

John Tavares - 2.00 PPG in his DY-1 ----> 1.86 PPG in his DY (OHL)

Zeev Buium - 1.19 PPG in his DY ----> 1.23 PPG in his DY+1 (NCAA)
Mitch Marner - 2.00 PPG in his DY ----> 2.04 PPG in his DY+1 (OHL)

Let's say Hagens production in the OHL last season would be the same as it was in the USHL (1.81 PPG). It would be hard for him to see a large uptick in production at that point. That's why I say I think his production would be aroud Martone's (1.90 PPG)

I can grant you he’s not likely to increase to like 2.75 or something. I’m just saying I think it’s ridiculous to project his PPG below Misa. Hagens has been the one to put up better stats any year they’ve played roughly similar level leagues or played at the same international tournaments. To not even grant him similar level production to Misa is being unfair. Quite frankly if we’re just guessing, the smart money based on history is Hagens having the better stats.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Look there's obviously no way to convert stats between the CHL and the NCAA, but someone did build an NHL equivelency calculator. This is by no means a perfect tool but nobody else has come up with anything else: NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

According to Dobber's NHLe tool:

Misa's 99 pts in 47 gms= 56 nhl pts (82 gms)
Martone 76 in 40 gms= 50
Hagens 29 pts in 27 gms= 35

Hagens is a fair ways behind. So I checked the top scoring draft eligibles from the dub and the Q:
Ben Kindel: 82 pts in 49 gms= 41
Caleb Desnoyers: 67 in 44 gms= 35

So Hagens is producing the same as Desnoyers this year. Maybe he should be in the conversation for #1 OA this year.

I totally reject that. Calculating Hagens with the average NCAA schedule is a total farce. BC is on pace to play potentially the hardest NCAA schedule ever. This is the equivalent of like Allsvenskan level competition. They’ve played 16 of 27 games against top 11 teams in the nation. Denver (so like Zeev Buium and company) has played 4 of 28 games against top 11 teams.

This is the problem with trying to compare stats across very differently structured leagues where schedules aren’t formatted into the same way. There’s no fair way to do it. Does that calculator account for that OHL scoring is up?

NHLe is not remotely predictive. The only thing you can use as predictive is when players play in the same setting or roughly similar level leagues.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

the average NCAA schedule

The model didn't use the average NCAA schedule. It used the average Hockey East schedule.
BC plays the toughest schedule? They're the top recruiting school in the country.
They're supposed to be the toughest matchup in the country, not whine about playing other top teams. Hagens plays with more top players than he plays against.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

There is no anti-Hagens hate or pro-canada needs the 1st overall pick...people just prefer Schaefer and Misa to Hagens. That's all there is to it.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

There is no anti-Hagens hate or pro-canada needs the 1st overall pick...people just prefer Schaefer and Misa to Hagens. That's all there is to it.