GDT: #19 | Avalanche at Flyers | Monday, November 18, 2024 | 7:00 PM | NBCSP, 93.3 FM

[blackjackmulligan]

The wings as a group are probably above average.

But just look at the Couts line v the other lines.
73 minutes (SSS), xGF 63.41%, HDCF 66.22%
Farabee - Laughton - Brink
66 minutes xGF 42.25%, HDCF 50.33%

Poehling, Laughton, Frost and Cates are not top 6 centers.
Frost was a solid 3C/marginal 2C but this season he's been awful.
The others are basically 4C types.

Add a couple solid centers and this forward group would look much better.

Where are they going to find 2 top 6 centers? They have no sure fire one in the system.

Tell me how they get them?

Crazy that the first few weeks of the season saw Couturier demoted to 4LW, and there was a lot of talk about him being cooked.

Excluding the 5 point Bruins game he has4 points in 17 games. That is putrid production.

 

[deadhead]

Where are they going to find 2 top 6 centers? They have no sure fire one in the system.

Tell me how they get them?


Excluding the 5 point Bruins game he has4 points in 17 games. That is putrid production.

You draft and/or trade for them.
Jett is a good start.
Plenty of top 6 centers have been chosen in the 1st rd.

No, they're not going to get the next McKinnon or McDavid, or even Barkov, but there's only a few of these guys.
But the top scoring lists have plenty of names chosen outside the top 10.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

View attachment 932709

Serious question. Break this down for me just using Grans as an example. What is it saying?

 

[blackjackmulligan]

You draft and/or trade for them.
Jett is a good start.
Plenty of top 6 centers have been chosen in the 1st rd.

No, they're not going to get the next McKinnon or McDavid, or even Barkov, but there's only a few of these guys.
But the top scoring lists have plenty of names chosen outside the top 10.

Drafting will take years based on their draft spot. Jett may or may not be a good start. Way to early to tell. Drafting will also take years for any real significant production. All the while players age and start to slide.

As far as trade the Flyers have shown no inclination to trade any players with value. Don't see that a route at this time as you have to give to get. Guys you value the Flyers may not you need to keep n mind.

So that leave free agency which I am 99.9% sure they will use to grab said top 6 center.

 

[deadhead]

Serious question. Break this down for me just using Grans as an example. What is it saying?

It's based on his game score metric.

He adds the score for each element of play to the bar chart, if one is negative it's on the left, positive on the right.

Here's his explanation (if you have the Athletic):

The changed weights were based on various multi-variate regressions comparing past expected goals and goals to future goals where expected was deemed four times more valuable than actual (which works out to 0.6 for expected goals and 0.15 for goals based on previous weights), except for forward offence where both were equal (0.375 each).

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/1019070/2019/06/14/improving-our-nhl-projection-model-ahead-of-the-2019-20-season/

He basically updated his game score calculations using xG instead of Corsi.

Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score

Who had the best game last night? That’s a rhetorical question obviously… because it’s July, but when hockey is actually being played from October to June it’s an important question to ask – …

hockey-graphs.com

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Than

It's based on his game score metric.

He adds the score for each element of play to the bar chart, if one is negative it's on the left, positive on the right.

Here's his explanation (if you have the Athletic):

The changed weights were based on various multi-variate regressions comparing past expected goals and goals to future goals where expected was deemed four times more valuable than actual (which works out to 0.6 for expected goals and 0.15 for goals based on previous weights), except for forward offence where both were equal (0.375 each).

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/1019070/2019/06/14/improving-our-nhl-projection-model-ahead-of-the-2019-20-season/

He basically updated his game score calculations using xG instead of Corsi.

Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score

Who had the best game last night? That’s a rhetorical question obviously… because it’s July, but when hockey is actually being played from October to June it’s an important question to ask – …

hockey-graphs.com

Thanks.

 

[deadhead]

Drafting will take years based on their draft spot. Jett may or may not be a good start. Way to early to tell. Drafting will also take years for any real significant production. All the while players age and start to slide.

As far as trade the Flyers have shown no inclination to trade any players with value. Don't see that a route at this time as you have to give to get. Guys you value the Flyers may not you need to keep n mind.

So that leave free agency which I am 99.9% sure they will use to grab said top 6 center.

It's why you accumulate draft picks.

And why they said the schedule didn't change when Michkov came over, they always were focused on 2026-27 and onward, when they originally expected Michkov to come.

The 2025 draft should be making an impact starting in 2027-28.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Teams are going to a narrower 1-2-2 or 2-1-2 against them up the strongside and when that happens they have basically no other exit strategy and cant create rushes. As their primary breakout strategy is basically strongside tips and passes with puck support... they sometimes use like a "slash-across" their too, but they have basically no weakside exit options with the way they play DZ... that is fine so long as execute well and quickly, but they dont this season.

That combined with they being more passive (going 1-1-3 more often, when 1-2-2 was what worked all last year, as well as getting away from man in DZ) means that the systems are aligning less and less.

If you dont play aggressive in NZ and hard man in DZ when system designed around that? Then it is harder to turn pucks over. If you dont turn pucks over. You get caught in DZ more. If you get caught in DZ more? More time chasing play. More time chasing play? More times with players spread across DZ? That, plus less legs for rushes? More time needed to set up and exit zone... Resulting in poor transition.

Why? I think not all by design. I think that injuries and line juggling mean that guys are not on same page. And team seemingly is less confident at 5v5 and sometimes just collapse early. But a lot of the time they are just not on the same page, especially in transition right now.

EDIT: Aha, you literally just replied to my other post along same lines in other thread seconds after posted this.

Yeah, a couple weeks ago I pointed out that it looks like the Flyers only have the one plan. They really don't have anything to fall back on. Team is taking X away? There is no Y to switch to in order to exploit whatever is open. No matter what they try to do the same things over and over.

It makes when players rebel and break the mold really stand out. Tortorella hockey has always been about essentially making both teams play uphill.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

It's why you accumulate draft picks.

And why they said the schedule didn't change when Michkov came over, they always were focused on 2026-27 and onward, when they originally expected Michkov to come.

The 2025 draft should be making an impact starting in 2027-28.

Don't see the 2025 draft class having any significant impact by 27-28. The strong possibility exist they are not even on the NHL roster.

They knew MM was going to come over early at some point. This is about the only thing they have done correctly. Build up Russian relations. To believe otherwise is foolish.

They need top end draft picks. To put themselves in the best spot to get the highest draft pick. Accumulating picks sounds nice in theory. Find it odd you mention that but dont want to move Seeler, GH, and the like to accumulate picks.

Either way they are years away from contending. If they even get there.

 

[flyersnorth]

Don't see the 2025 draft class having any significant impact by 27-28. The strong possibility exist they are not even on the NHL roster.

They knew MM was going to come over early at some point. This is about the only thing they have done correctly. Build up Russian relations. To believe otherwise is foolish.

They need top end draft picks. To put themselves in the best spot to get the highest draft pick. Accumulating picks sounds nice in theory. Find it odd you mention that but dont want to move Seeler, GH, and the like to accumulate picks.

Either way they are years away from contending. If they even get there.

I do wonder if the failed Sanheim trade changed their outlook.

If Krug doesn't block and Sanheim is moved out, do they re-sign TK?

They also had to know Hart was going to be charged.

So down your top defenseman and goalie, do you re-sign TK at that point?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[bleachdrinker]

I do wonder if the failed Sanheim trade changed their outlook.

If Krug doesn't waive and Sanheim is moved out, do they re-sign TK?

They also had to know Hart was going to be charged.

So down your top defenseman and goalie, do you re-sign TK at that point?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Krug blocking the trade had some ripple effect on timeline, but I think they were most likely set on re-signing TK. He’s a prototypical Flyer.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I do wonder if the failed Sanheim trade changed their outlook.

If Krug doesn't block and Sanheim is moved out, do they re-sign TK?

They also had to know Hart was going to be charged.

So down your top defenseman and goalie, do you re-sign TK at that point?

Flyers do yes. Smart team no.

 

[deadhead]

Flyers do yes. Smart team no.

Not that easy. You need a core of players during a rebuild, especially when you want to turn the corner.
Flyers now have Couts, Sanheim and TK.
What other veterans are likely to be here in 2-3 years?

TK would have garnered a late 1st, 2nd and B assets, the standard return for someone of his caliber.
If he has raised his game another notch, it's unlikely that anyone we obtained with that 1st would be better than TK until after 2030 (if ever). How many players taken after #20 or so are first line quality forwards at 22 or younger? It's a small group.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Sucks to lose but truth is we need to lose, and we need to lose a lot this year.

The team isn't bad enough to lose like we need them too. There is enough talent on the group to keep them in games and rack up loser points and snag the odd win.

You just need to accept we aren't going to bottom out for a while now that they have a new Giroux to pathetically try to build around.

Embrace the ennui.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Not that easy. You need a core of players during a rebuild, especially when you want to turn the corner.
Flyers now have Couts, Sanheim and TK.
What other veterans are likely to be here in 2-3 years?

TK would have garnered a late 1st, 2nd and B assets, the standard return for someone of his caliber.
If he has raised his game another notch, it's unlikely that anyone we obtained with that 1st would be better than TK until after 2030 (if ever). How many players taken after #20 or so are first line quality forwards at 22 or younger? It's a small group.

It is easy for me. They have plenty of vets without TK. They can always sign short term vets. You know this. GH and Seeler will be here in 2 years. No FN doubt.

In another thread or maybe this one you said they need to accumulate draft picks. Now you are downplaying them again it seems. Pick a side man. You also like to tout the drafting of DB and Flahr. So those picks could be another Jett.

If they end up better than him isn't the point. In 2030 TK will be irrelevant on this team and another cap anchor. Diminished returns. With or without TK the next 4 years this team is going nowhere.

 

[deadhead]

It is easy for me. They have plenty of vets without TK. They can always sign short term vets. You know this. GH and Seeler will be here in 2 years. No FN doubt.

In another thread or maybe this one you said they need to accumulate draft picks. Now you are downplaying them again it seems. Pick a side man. You also like to tout the drafting of DB and Flahr. So those picks could be another Jett.

If they end up better than him isn't the point. In 2030 TK will be irrelevant on this team and another cap anchor. Diminished returns. With or without TK the next 4 years this team is going nowhere.

Like everything it's a balance.
You don't want to do what NJ did, spend a lot of money signing FAs in 2027.

Couts, Sanheim and TK are on team friendly deals, especially with the cap going up faster than expected. Couts has bounced back, maybe not a 1C anymore, but a top 2C.

With this core in place, there is no urgency to hit free agency.
You're unlikely to find a FA in his prime years (26-27), most are 29 or older, so as old or older than TK will be in 2027.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Like everything it's a balance.
You don't want to do what NJ did, spend a lot of money signing FAs in 2027.

Couts, Sanheim and TK are on team friendly deals, especially with the cap going up faster than expected. Couts has bounced back, maybe not a 1C anymore, but a top 2C.

With this core in place, there is no urgency to hit free agency.
You're unlikely to find a FA in his prime years (26-27), most are 29 or older, so as old or older than TK will be in 2027.

Cap going up faster does not validate if a deal is good or not. 2 of those deal will be an anchor in a few years. 1 is pretty much already.

Coots has not bounced back at all. Take away the 5 points in Boston and his production is putrid.

They will hit free agency. The POH has said it and the CO-GM has alluded to it.

On another path to the middle of the road as Chrissy Hynde has said.

Oh and this core sucks. Name your 6 core players.

 

[ybnvs]

Oh and this core sucks. Name your 6 core players.

Here's mine and the Flyers': Laughton, Hathaway, Seeler, Tippett, Cates, Poehling

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I think the Bruins are trying to get Montgomery fired

I saw the future last night