GDT: #19 | Avalanche at Flyers | Monday, November 18, 2024 | 7:00 PM | NBCSP, 93.3 FM

[blackjackmulligan]

The wings as a group are probably above average.

But just look at the Couts line v the other lines.
73 minutes (SSS), xGF 63.41%, HDCF 66.22%
Farabee - Laughton - Brink
66 minutes xGF 42.25%, HDCF 50.33%

Poehling, Laughton, Frost and Cates are not top 6 centers.
Frost was a solid 3C/marginal 2C but this season he's been awful.
The others are basically 4C types.

Add a couple solid centers and this forward group would look much better.

Where are they going to find 2 top 6 centers? They have no sure fire one in the system.

Tell me how they get them?

Crazy that the first few weeks of the season saw Couturier demoted to 4LW, and there was a lot of talk about him being cooked.

Excluding the 5 point Bruins game he has4 points in 17 games. That is putrid production.

 

[deadhead]

Where are they going to find 2 top 6 centers? They have no sure fire one in the system.

Tell me how they get them?


Excluding the 5 point Bruins game he has4 points in 17 games. That is putrid production.

You draft and/or trade for them.
Jett is a good start.
Plenty of top 6 centers have been chosen in the 1st rd.

No, they're not going to get the next McKinnon or McDavid, or even Barkov, but there's only a few of these guys.
But the top scoring lists have plenty of names chosen outside the top 10.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

View attachment 932709

Serious question. Break this down for me just using Grans as an example. What is it saying?

 

[blackjackmulligan]

You draft and/or trade for them.
Jett is a good start.
Plenty of top 6 centers have been chosen in the 1st rd.

No, they're not going to get the next McKinnon or McDavid, or even Barkov, but there's only a few of these guys.
But the top scoring lists have plenty of names chosen outside the top 10.

Drafting will take years based on their draft spot. Jett may or may not be a good start. Way to early to tell. Drafting will also take years for any real significant production. All the while players age and start to slide.

As far as trade the Flyers have shown no inclination to trade any players with value. Don't see that a route at this time as you have to give to get. Guys you value the Flyers may not you need to keep n mind.

So that leave free agency which I am 99.9% sure they will use to grab said top 6 center.

 

[deadhead]

Serious question. Break this down for me just using Grans as an example. What is it saying?

It's based on his game score metric.

He adds the score for each element of play to the bar chart, if one is negative it's on the left, positive on the right.

Here's his explanation (if you have the Athletic):

The changed weights were based on various multi-variate regressions comparing past expected goals and goals to future goals where expected was deemed four times more valuable than actual (which works out to 0.6 for expected goals and 0.15 for goals based on previous weights), except for forward offence where both were equal (0.375 each).

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/1019070/2019/06/14/improving-our-nhl-projection-model-ahead-of-the-2019-20-season/

He basically updated his game score calculations using xG instead of Corsi.

Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score

Who had the best game last night? That’s a rhetorical question obviously… because it’s July, but when hockey is actually being played from October to June it’s an important question to ask – …

hockey-graphs.com

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Than

It's based on his game score metric.

He adds the score for each element of play to the bar chart, if one is negative it's on the left, positive on the right.

Here's his explanation (if you have the Athletic):

The changed weights were based on various multi-variate regressions comparing past expected goals and goals to future goals where expected was deemed four times more valuable than actual (which works out to 0.6 for expected goals and 0.15 for goals based on previous weights), except for forward offence where both were equal (0.375 each).

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/1019070/2019/06/14/improving-our-nhl-projection-model-ahead-of-the-2019-20-season/

He basically updated his game score calculations using xG instead of Corsi.

Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score

Who had the best game last night? That’s a rhetorical question obviously… because it’s July, but when hockey is actually being played from October to June it’s an important question to ask – …

hockey-graphs.com

Thanks.

 

[deadhead]

Drafting will take years based on their draft spot. Jett may or may not be a good start. Way to early to tell. Drafting will also take years for any real significant production. All the while players age and start to slide.

As far as trade the Flyers have shown no inclination to trade any players with value. Don't see that a route at this time as you have to give to get. Guys you value the Flyers may not you need to keep n mind.

So that leave free agency which I am 99.9% sure they will use to grab said top 6 center.

It's why you accumulate draft picks.

And why they said the schedule didn't change when Michkov came over, they always were focused on 2026-27 and onward, when they originally expected Michkov to come.

The 2025 draft should be making an impact starting in 2027-28.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Teams are going to a narrower 1-2-2 or 2-1-2 against them up the strongside and when that happens they have basically no other exit strategy and cant create rushes. As their primary breakout strategy is basically strongside tips and passes with puck support... they sometimes use like a "slash-across" their too, but they have basically no weakside exit options with the way they play DZ... that is fine so long as execute well and quickly, but they dont this season.

That combined with they being more passive (going 1-1-3 more often, when 1-2-2 was what worked all last year, as well as getting away from man in DZ) means that the systems are aligning less and less.

If you dont play aggressive in NZ and hard man in DZ when system designed around that? Then it is harder to turn pucks over. If you dont turn pucks over. You get caught in DZ more. If you get caught in DZ more? More time chasing play. More time chasing play? More times with players spread across DZ? That, plus less legs for rushes? More time needed to set up and exit zone... Resulting in poor transition.

Why? I think not all by design. I think that injuries and line juggling mean that guys are not on same page. And team seemingly is less confident at 5v5 and sometimes just collapse early. But a lot of the time they are just not on the same page, especially in transition right now.

EDIT: Aha, you literally just replied to my other post along same lines in other thread seconds after posted this.

Yeah, a couple weeks ago I pointed out that it looks like the Flyers only have the one plan. They really don't have anything to fall back on. Team is taking X away? There is no Y to switch to in order to exploit whatever is open. No matter what they try to do the same things over and over.

It makes when players rebel and break the mold really stand out. Tortorella hockey has always been about essentially making both teams play uphill.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

It's why you accumulate draft picks.

And why they said the schedule didn't change when Michkov came over, they always were focused on 2026-27 and onward, when they originally expected Michkov to come.

The 2025 draft should be making an impact starting in 2027-28.

Don't see the 2025 draft class having any significant impact by 27-28. The strong possibility exist they are not even on the NHL roster.

They knew MM was going to come over early at some point. This is about the only thing they have done correctly. Build up Russian relations. To believe otherwise is foolish.

They need top end draft picks. To put themselves in the best spot to get the highest draft pick. Accumulating picks sounds nice in theory. Find it odd you mention that but dont want to move Seeler, GH, and the like to accumulate picks.

Either way they are years away from contending. If they even get there.

 

[flyersnorth]

Don't see the 2025 draft class having any significant impact by 27-28. The strong possibility exist they are not even on the NHL roster.

They knew MM was going to come over early at some point. This is about the only thing they have done correctly. Build up Russian relations. To believe otherwise is foolish.

They need top end draft picks. To put themselves in the best spot to get the highest draft pick. Accumulating picks sounds nice in theory. Find it odd you mention that but dont want to move Seeler, GH, and the like to accumulate picks.

Either way they are years away from contending. If they even get there.

I do wonder if the failed Sanheim trade changed their outlook.

If Krug doesn't waive and Sanheim is moved out, do they re-sign TK?

They also had to know Hart was going to be charged.

So down your top defenseman and goalie, do you re-sign TK at that point?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[bleachdrinker]

I do wonder if the failed Sanheim trade changed their outlook.

If Krug doesn't waive and Sanheim is moved out, do they re-sign TK?

They also had to know Hart was going to be charged.

So down your top defenseman and goalie, do you re-sign TK at that point?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Krug blocking the trade had some ripple effect on timeline, but I think they were most likely set on re-signing TK. He’s a prototypical Flyer.