Prospect Info: 15th overall — C Dylan Larkin: Larkin signs 3 year entry deal

[InjuredChoker]

Giroux was a centre with nearly 2 PPG in the QMJHL. He wasn't picked until 22nd.

1. There are more factors than ceiling that go into where a player is picked, ie. likelihood of reaching ceiling, size, area of need, etc.
2. As evidenced by busts chosen early and gems chosen late, drafting is at best an inexact science.

I don't want to go around in circles all day, you're simply wrong when you say that Larkin's ceiling is Filppula. There's no way you can make a judgment like that this early, especially when Larkin is one of the youngest in his draft class.

giroux was drafted as a winger.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Again, if the professionals thought his ceiling was higher, than he would have went earlier. Based on where he went, the leagues he has played in and his totals to this point projecting him to max out as a 60 point NHL center with great defense might even be very generous.

This is a total mischaracterization of how the draft works. Teams disagree, often very wildly, about players. The Wings are on the record saying that they had Larkin very high on their list.

Furthermore, the draft is a crapshoot. A scout hopes and prays that he saw a player on the right days in order to draw the right conclusion. Sometimes nobody sees the player on the right days. The draft world is full of stories about "if we had know he was going to be that good, we would have drafted him first." The claim that a team misjudged a non-CHL prospect is downright plausible. In some years, we might even say it's reasonable...

Hell, most of the time when a team gets a steal, they don't even know it at the draft. They only find out years later when everyone else does, and they're as surprised as anybody. If they had known, they would have taken him earlier to make sure they got him. They're right for the wrong reasons.

Point is, hockey scouting is more art than science, and real consensus is tremendously hard to come by. Scouting players is itself a highly subjective process that's prone to blind luck as well. Scouts are wrong much, much more often than they're right. So we shouldn't look at what happened at the draft for a picture of who the players really are. It's a far weirder process than that.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Giroux was not the skater he became and still plays at a ridiculously slight size. Just battles and handles it well, he isn't the best example. For instance Claude Giroux has the exact same measurements as Hilary Knight, think about that for a second.

I don't think these guys put firm ceilings on players, that is down to their development of the player and his desire himself. I think and have heard from those around NHL teams that their floors are often discussed and this guy has a high ceiling. But they are not as in to mythical numbers as we as a board and fans are. Numbers change greatly with the surrounding parts. Say Larkin does wind up playing with a 40+ goal scorer in Mantha and a ppg player in Nyquist, well his points are likely to break that barrier. At which point people will say yeah but look at the players he plays with and we can have this argument in reverse.

They look for feel, what they see as a fit and where his talents go. Numbers fluctuate year to year, you can ballpark it but it isn't often you will hear hockey people attach numbers to these kids and there is a reason for that.

 

[Frk It]

 

[Chip39]

Haha great find although there are plenty pictures from my youth in that exact stadium rooting for michigan that I wish could be erased.

 

[Bench]

That is some damning evidence.

 

[GoAwayDanCleary]

Inexcusable.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

This kid doesn't need developmental camp, he needs a reeducation camp.

 

[Probie]

This kid doesn't need developmental camp, he needs a reeducation camp.

Could you elaborate a little?

 

[Run the Jewels]

This is a total mischaracterization of how the draft works. Teams disagree, often very wildly, about players. The Wings are on the record saying that they had Larkin very high on their list.

Furthermore, the draft is a crapshoot. A scout hopes and prays that he saw a player on the right days in order to draw the right conclusion. Sometimes nobody sees the player on the right days. The draft world is full of stories about "if we had know he was going to be that good, we would have drafted him first." The claim that a team misjudged a non-CHL prospect is downright plausible. In some years, we might even say it's reasonable...

Hell, most of the time when a team gets a steal, they don't even know it at the draft. They only find out years later when everyone else does, and they're as surprised as anybody. If they had known, they would have taken him earlier to make sure they got him. They're right for the wrong reasons.

Point is, hockey scouting is more art than science, and real consensus is tremendously hard to come by. Scouting players is itself a highly subjective process that's prone to blind luck as well. Scouts are wrong much, much more often than they're right. So we shouldn't look at what happened at the draft for a picture of who the players really are. It's a far weirder process than that.

Let me start off by saying I like Larkin and I am hopeful he will max out his potential. With that being said the odds of the #15 pick turning into a quality NHL player are pretty low. That's what you find if you look at the players taken #15 over the past 15-20 years.

I think he is a safe pick because he has the skating and defense to be a 3rd or 4th line pivot. The problem is we've got boatloads of those guys on the roster and in the system and zero scoring line centers in the pipeline.

 

[probertrules24]

Could you elaborate a little?

I believe it's in reference to him being a Leaf fan.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Let me start off by saying I like Larkin and I am hopeful he will max out his potential. With that being said the odds of the #15 pick turning into a quality NHL player are pretty low. That's what you find if you look at the players taken #15 over the past 15-20 years.

I think he is a safe pick because he has the skating and defense to be a 3rd or 4th line pivot. The problem is we've got boatloads of those guys on the roster and in the system and zero scoring line centers in the pipeline.

Eh, yes and no. For one thing, not every team picking at 15th is equal. Some teams routinely make dumb picks or reach. Others take steals, and Larkin was regarded as a steal at 15th (according to the TSN broadcast, anyway, which is a decent source).

Another thing, not every player taken at 15th across those years was equal, even at the draft. It's not like they had an equal shot and it just so happened that a few turned out.

and even beyond that, that's assuming that players develop in a vacuum, independent of anything you can do about it. In reality, development systems and taking the proper amount of time have a lot to do with how a player's career goes. It won't make a mediocre player a star, but I'd say it frequently means the difference between AHL and NHL. The Wings have the best development system in the league, so I'd say this bodes well for Larkin.

and finally, I really do not think the Wings would have drafted Larkin if they thought he'd be a 3rd liner. and, in fact, that's not at all what any of the scouts said in the media. They said that Larkin's floor is a 3rd/4th liner—that he's a safe pick. and, again, having a high floor does not ever ever ever mean that a player has a low ceiling. So, anyway, Larkin was not drafted to be a 3rd line player. Will he come a 3rd line player? He can. Maybe the first two lines are so good, or maybe he just doesn't develop much. But the idea of the pick was not to take a grinder or depth player. It was to take a complementary scoring line player.

 

[Frk It]

I really do not think the Wings would have drafted Larkin if they thought he'd be a 3rd liner.

This is what i always come back to. And I have to believe it.

I mean last summer we were talking about how Sheahan would be lucky to make the team as a 4th liner, now we're sitting here talking about how he could be a 2nd line center some day.

Bertuzzi showed a lot more this year after seeming like a very questionable pick.

They are pretty good at evaluating talent that comes out after draft night, or aspects of guys games that get overlooked.

They've done it enough that I am trying not to question it as much, even if I start to get attached to other players in the draft.

I'm expecting Turgeon to be a guy that surprises some people too, in the same vein.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

This is what i always come back to. And I have to believe it.

I think part of it is that we look at a guy like Larkin and say: well, he's not a pure skill guy, so he's not going to be a producer for us. Most of our producers have been pure skill guys. But, as you put it so well, we thought this same thing about Sheahan. I think that's a nice comparison, because Larkin will probably be that level of player. He'll be a big guy with enough skill to play on the second line. He won't have enough skill to carry his line or anchor the PP, but he won't have to. He's going to ride shotgun with great wingers.

Another point, maybe a silly one: why do you guys think the Wings made such a big deal about introducing Larkin to Mantha if they thought he'd be a depth guy? That would almost be mean, like they're mocking him or something. Like making sure Glendening was on the same page as Nyquist, only have to have one guy grind it out and another guy play on the top line.

 

[Henkka]

I think part of it is that we look at a guy like Larkin and say: well, he's not a pure skill guy, so he's not going to be a producer for us. Most of our producers have been pure skill guys. But, as you put it so well, we thought this same thing about Sheahan. I think that's a nice comparison, because Larkin will probably be that level of player. He'll be a big guy with enough skill to play on the second line. He won't have enough skill to carry his line or anchor the PP, but he won't have to. He's going to ride shotgun with great wingers.

It's totally possible that our future team has two "2nd line" centers at the TOP6, surrounded with four "1st line" wingers. And that would be hell of a TOP6 offense.

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

Eh, yes and no. For one thing, not every team picking at 15th is equal. Some teams routinely make dumb picks or reach. Others take steals, and Larkin was regarded as a steal at 15th (according to the TSN broadcast, anyway, which is a decent source).

Most mock drafts had him 15th, we picked 15th, he went 15th. He is/was the epitome of a 15th pick imho. And most hockey analysts believed the 2014 draft to be a pretty weak draft overall in terms of NHL talent. We would all love for this guy to be our future 1C, captain, and fan favorite, but truthfully, the chances of him turning into that for us is relatively slim.

But then again, the chances of Zetterberg or Datsyuk turning into what they are, was even slimmer, so there's that....

 

[19 for president]

I don't think Larkin is ever going to set the world on fire offensively, but we have a bunch of very solid offensive wingers in Mantha, Nyquist, Pulu, Tatar, Jurco, and maybe A2. You also have guys like Nosek & Janmark that may end up as offensive wingers as well. While getting another Z or Datsyuk would be wonderful, that likely isn't going to happen where we pick, so instead they went with a true 2 way center, that can win faceoffs, possess the puck, and has some offensive instincts. I hear a lot of Helm comparisons and really if Helm had even 25% better offensive skills he would easily be a top 6 center. The guy has stone hands and no vision, but is a demon on the puck. You put a guy like that with a bit better hands/ vision and you have a perfect complimentary player to guys like Mantha, Nyquist etc. He can get them the puck, cover defensively for them, and lead them on the ice.

If not we probably get another Helm, which isn't bad at all. Hopefully with Larkin being a bit bigger, the injury risk will be a bit less. Players like Helm are critical to cup runs too.

 

[crashman]

I don't think Larkin is ever going to set the world on fire offensively, but we have a bunch of very solid offensive wingers in Mantha, Nyquist, Pulu, Tatar, Jurco, and maybe A2. You also have guys like Nosek & Janmark that may end up as offensive wingers as well. While getting another Z or Datsyuk would be wonderful, that likely isn't going to happen where we pick, so instead they went with a true 2 way center, that can win faceoffs, possess the puck, and has some offensive instincts. I hear a lot of Helm comparisons and really if Helm had even 25% better offensive skills he would easily be a top 6 center. The guy has stone hands and no vision, but is a demon on the puck. You put a guy like that with a bit better hands/ vision and you have a perfect complimentary player to guys like Mantha, Nyquist etc. He can get them the puck, cover defensively for them, and lead them on the ice.

If not we probably get another Helm, which isn't bad at all. Hopefully with Larkin being a bit bigger, the injury risk will be a bit less. Players like Helm are critical to cup runs too.

Sorry to hi-jack the Larkin talk, but I feel like no one remembers what Helm did last season. Granted, his injury woes continued, but when he was playing he was a big difference maker. This will be his first full off-season of training in a few years and I think he's going to bounce back huge. He showed pretty solid hands and scoring ability last season and I can't imagine it will get worse. He's going to be our most improved player next season and people will remember why he's awesome.

 

[19 for president]

Sorry to hi-jack the Larkin talk, but I feel like no one remembers what Helm did last season. Granted, his injury woes continued, but when he was playing he was a big difference maker. This will be his first full off-season of training in a few years and I think he's going to bounce back huge. He showed pretty solid hands and scoring ability last season and I can't imagine it will get worse. He's going to be our most improved player next season and people will remember why he's awesome.

Until Helm shows that he can do that for more than a 15-20 game stretch, I mark it as a Draper (24 goal season) aberration. I really hope his offense really is that improved, and that it was the 2nd injury that made him return to no hands form, but I have yet to see proof of that. But if Larkin turns into the Helm we sae for that stretch last year, that's a heck of a player.

 

[SirloinUB]

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nhl/red-wings/2015/05/09/detroit-red-wings-dylan-larkin/27041003/

Babcock will be watching larkin.


"I'm going to watch Dylan Larkin," Babcock told the Free Press. "I want to watch him play, talk to Kenny. I need to see Larkin play a few times."

I wonder how much of an influence Dylan has on Babcock staying. Is babs looking for the "Datsyuk replacement"? Maybe not literally, but if he sees a potential top 6 center who plays realgud on both sides of the puck, does that effect Babcock's decision?

"As of now," Holland said, "he's going back to Michigan for another year of hockey, but I think he wanted to see how he stacks up at a men's tournament." He also added it's 100% Dylan's decision.
I am not sure what the best path for him is. I don't think another year at Michigan can hurt. It will allow him to get bigger, stronger and more confident. On the other hand I am flat out excited about Larkin. I would love to see him make the jump to pro hockey.


I am pretty high on Larkin, I think he is the most pivotal prospect in the system, in terms of our future success.

 

[InjuredChoker]

i'd think that how he sees larkin will affect his decision.

probably wasn't impressed by mantha so if he's not impressed by the top two prospects the team has..

 

[Mount Suribachi]

I honestly don't see what he has to gain by going back to Michigan. He dominated college hockey as a freshman, time to go to the next level.

I repeatedly said about Mantha having to go back to Junior that the only thing he could learn would be bad habits (and it looks like I was right). Same goes for Larkin. Get him in the AHL playing the pro game against men, he's good enough already.

 

[Bench]

Larkin looked very noticeable in the game I watched him play against Denmark. Was a strong penalty killer and made lots of strong plays to get the puck into scoring positions.

He doesn't have the flash of Eichel, but you can see how effective he could be at the pro level. He looks more skilled than I remember young Kesler being.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Larkin looked very noticeable in the game I watched him play against Denmark. Was a strong penalty killer and made lots of strong plays to get the puck into scoring positions.

He doesn't have the flash of Eichel, but you can see how effective he could be at the pro level. He looks more skilled than I remember young Kesler being.

His offensive zone positioning and hockey sense are fantastic for his age. He knows how to find space and where rebounds will go.

I think I favor another year at Michigan just so he can get more time working on the flashier parts of his offensive game. I could see somebody like Blashill or even Babcock using him like a Darren Helm from a young age, which could hurt his potential. When you play that role, they're always on you to skate faster and faster. For Larkin, I'd actually like to see him slow down a little bit, and I think he did that toward the end of the season with the Wolverines. He showed more patience.

Going on what I've seen at the WC, I think Larkin would be playing a defensive role in the NHL pretty quickly. I think Babcock in particular might be tempted. But in the long run, I'm not sure it would be the best thing for him.

 

[Brandel*]

His offensive zone positioning and hockey sense are fantastic for his age. He knows how to find space and where rebounds will go.

I think I favor another year at Michigan just so he can get more time working on the flashier parts of his offensive game. I could see somebody like Blashill or even Babcock using him like a Darren Helm from a young age, which could hurt his potential. When you play that role, they're always on you to skate faster and faster. For Larkin, I'd actually like to see him slow down a little bit, and I think he did that toward the end of the season with the Wolverines. He showed more patience.

Going on what I've seen at the WC, I think Larkin would be playing a defensive role in the NHL pretty quickly. I think Babcock in particular might be tempted. But in the long run, I'm not sure it would be the best thing for him.

If Auston Matthews goes to Michigan I wonder if that would change where Larkin would play in the line up if he returns to school for the next season.