Prospect Info: 15th overall — C Dylan Larkin: Larkin signs 3 year entry deal

[Laser Rayzor]

 

[mindfly]

Is he allowed to play with just visor when he hasn't turned 18 yet?

 

[Shaman464]

I think this is fair:

His floor seems to be Helm his peak seems to be Filppula.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I think this is fair:

His floor seems to be Helm his peak seems to be Filppula.

He doesn't remind me of Filppula at all, and also, the organization seems pretty damn high on the guy to say that his peak his Filppula.

 

[Shaman464]

He doesn't remind me of Filppula at all, and also, the organization seems pretty damn high on the guy to say that his peak his Filppula.

60 points, 25 goals, and good to great defensive play isn't a high peak?

 

[RedMachine87]

60 points, 25 goals, and good to great defensive play isn't a high peak?

I agree with Cyborg Yzerman here, I think his ceiling is higher than Flip. Admittedly, I haven't seen Larkin play much (will have a much better idea of his potential after seeing him at UM for a year), but he is already an inch taller and only slightly lighter than Filppula at 17. Not to mention that by all accounts he is more of a scorer than play maker. Hopefully, once he develops he is a bigger, faster version with leadership traits.

 

[Shaman464]

I agree with Cyborg Yzerman here, I think his ceiling is higher than Flip. Admittedly, I haven't seen Larkin play much (will have a much better idea of his potential after seeing him at UM for a year), but he is already an inch taller and only slightly lighter than Filppula at 17. Not to mention that by all accounts he is more of a scorer than play maker. Hopefully, once he develops he is a bigger, faster version with leadership traits.

All I have read said he's got instincts, but his playmaking ability isn't known due to his line mates in USND. 25 goals, 60 points, with good to great defense I think is his ceiling, the way people make it seem that he's an elite talent and I believe Helm is his floor. Remember if he was going to be an 80 point peak player with great defense, he would have been drafted first overall, not 15th.

 

[The Zermanator]

All I have read said he's got instincts, but his playmaking ability isn't known due to his line mates in USND. 25 goals, 60 points, with good to great defense I think is his ceiling, the way people make it seem that he's an elite talent and I believe Helm is his floor. Remember if he was going to be an 80 point peak player with great defense, he would have been drafted first overall, not 15th.

Drafting isn't perfect. If it was, Datsyuk and Zetterberg wouldn't have been chosen so late. They both would have been 1st overall picks.

Larkin is one of the youngest players in his draft class, he's almost a year of development behind some of his peers. To say that his ceiling is 60 points is premature. He has the tools to be very, very good. Time will tell.

 

[Shaman464]

Drafting isn't perfect. If it was, Datsyuk and Zetterberg wouldn't have been chosen so late. They both would have been 1st overall picks.

Larkin is one of the youngest players in his draft class, he's almost a year of development behind some of his peers. To say that his ceiling is 60 points is premature. He has the tools to be very, very good. Time will tell.

Z and D were in leagues that weren't 1/100000th as heavily scouted as the US development team is. They dropped not because they were some late bloomers, but because they were from places that the Wings had the first man on the spot.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Remember if he was going to be an 80 point peak player with great defense, he would have been drafted first overall, not 15th.

Not sure this is a great way to look at it. The players in the first round aren't just drafted in order of descending offensive potential, but also in terms of how likely they are to reach it. A fair amount of players in the 1st have big potential, but it's less likely they're going to get there than one of the very high picks. With Larkin, it's hard to say right now that he's going to be a first line center, but he does have that little spark in him. If everything goes right, you never know. It could happen.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

60 points, 25 goals, and good to great defensive play isn't a high peak?

Do you consider Filppula's peak as good/valuable as Bergeron has been the past 3-4 seasons?

 

[The Zermanator]

Z and D were in leagues that weren't 1/100000th as heavily scouted as the US development team is. They dropped not because they were some late bloomers, but because they were from places that the Wings had the first man on the spot.

OK fine. Shea Weber: 2nd round, 49th overall. Is the WHL scouted enough?

 

[Hendricks433]

lol at his ceiling being Filpulla. He may turn out to a similar point total but he will be better defensively and had a higher ceiling that what he turned out to be here in Detroit. We will also get a better idea after we see more of him at U of M. I mean the kid is only 17.

 

[Hendricks433]

OK fine. Shea Weber: 2nd round, 49th overall. Is the WHL scouted enough?

Subban, Kopitar... Etc. Kids are drafted at 17/18 and some bust and some turn out better. There's no guarantee.

 

[Shaman464]

OK fine. Shea Weber: 2nd round, 49th overall. Is the WHL scouted enough?

Irrelevant to this discussion. Weber is a defenseman, they tend to follow a much different development trajectory than centers do. Next you'll bring up Hasek and how he was a great player selected outside of #1 overall. Jordan Staal is a defensively responsible center who has the offensive capability to put up 25 goals and 30 assists and he went 2nd overall. If scouts thought Larkin was a lock for 60 points with elite defense and Toews level intangibles he would have gone in the top 5 picks. Are there surprises? Sure, but Larkin is unlikely to be one. Scouts get paid a lot of money and spend to figure out who should be first overall and who sound be 101st overall, and for the most part they do a pretty good job.

 

[The Zermanator]

Irrelevant to this discussion. Weber is a defenseman, they tend to follow a much different development trajectory than centers do. Next you'll bring up Hasek and how he was a great player selected outside of #1 overall. Jordan Staal is a defensively responsible center who has the offensive capability to put up 25 goals and 30 assists and he went 2nd overall. If scouts thought Larkin was a lock for 60 points with elite defense and Toews level intangibles he would have gone in the top 5 picks. Are there surprises? Sure, but Larkin is unlikely to be one. Scouts get paid a lot of money and spend to figure out who should be first overall and who sound be 101st overall, and for the most part they do a pretty good job.

Examples of late picks:
- Joe Pavelski, 205th overall
- Brendan Gallagher, 147th overall
- Jamie Benn, 129th overall

Examples of early picks 15th or later:
- Tarasenko, 16th overall
- Silfverberg, 39th overall
- Eberle, 22nd overall
- Stepan, 51st overall
- Pacioretty, 22nd overall
- Giroux, 22nd overall
- Neal, 33rd overall
- Stastny, 44th overall
- Zajac, 20th overall
- Parise, 17th overall
- Getzlaf, 19th overall
- Kesler, 23rd overall
- M. Richards, 24th overall
- Perry, 28th overall
- Eriksson, 33rd overall
- Bergeron, 45th overall
- Backes, 62nd overall

Shall I go on?

And before you say half the list is from the '03 draft, consider that Hugh Jessiman, Robert Nilsson, Steve Bernier, and Eric Fehr were all chosen in the top 20 in '03 which just underscores how much of a crapshoot/inexact science the draft can be and often is. You can most definitely pick a star player at 15th overall.

 

[Shaman464]

Examples of late picks:
- Joe Pavelski, 205th overall
- Brendan Gallagher, 147th overall
- Jamie Benn, 129th overall

Examples of early picks 15th or later:
- Tarasenko, 16th overall
- Silfverberg, 39th overall
- Eberle, 22nd overall
- Stepan, 51st overall
- Pacioretty, 22nd overall
- Giroux, 22nd overall
- Neal, 33rd overall
- Stastny, 44th overall
- Zajac, 20th overall
- Parise, 17th overall
- Getzlaf, 19th overall
- Kesler, 23rd overall
- M. Richards, 24th overall
- Perry, 28th overall
- Eriksson, 33rd overall
- Bergeron, 45th overall
- Backes, 62nd overall

Shall I go on?

And before you say half the list is from the '03 draft, consider that Hugh Jessiman, Robert Nilsson, Steve Bernier, and Eric Fehr were all chosen in the top 20 in '03 which just underscores how much of a crapshoot/inexact science the draft can be and often is. You can most definitely pick a star player at 15th overall.

Nice list, but again, this is the exception, not the rule. I will again point out centers with a high ceiling tend to get picked long before wingers with the same offensive ceiling. I would again point out that I am more likely to be right, while this will be a time where I will hate myself if I am.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Irrelevant to this discussion. Weber is a defenseman, they tend to follow a much different development trajectory than centers do.

And yet you had a completely different tune when discussing Sproul and Ouellet.

 

[The Zermanator]

Nice list, but again, this is the exception, not the rule. I will again point out centers with a high ceiling tend to get picked long before wingers with the same offensive ceiling. I would again point out that I am more likely to be right, while this will be a time where I will hate myself if I am.

Nobody said it was the rule. You said his ceiling was Filppula with better defense because 80+ point forwards with good defense go top 5. I'm saying drafting is not that exact. The list proves that. Great players can be chosen late in the first round and beyond. And busts can be chosen early in the 1st.

Larkin has the tools to be a very special player. To say that his ceiling is Filppula is very premature.

 

[Shaman464]

And yet you had a completely different tune when discussing Sproul and Ouellet.

Actually my tune is exactly the same with them. Centers to defensemen are apples to oranges, but, at this point in Weber's development (3 years after the draft) he was already considered a top defensive prospect in the league behind only Suter.

 

[Shaman464]

Nobody said it was the rule. You said his ceiling was Filppula with better defense because 80+ point forwards with good defense go top 5. I'm saying drafting is not that exact. The list proves that. Great players can be chosen late in the first round and beyond. And busts can be chosen early in the 1st.

Larkin has the tools to be a very special player. To say that his ceiling is Filppula is very premature.

Again, if the professionals thought his ceiling was higher, than he would have went earlier. Based on where he went, the leagues he has played in and his totals to this point projecting him to max out as a 60 point NHL center with great defense might even be very generous.

 

[The Zermanator]

Again, if the professionals thought his ceiling was higher, than he would have went earlier. Based on where he went, the leagues he has played in and his totals to this point projecting him to max out as a 60 point NHL center with great defense might even be very generous.

Teams don't draft based on ceiling alone. Year after year, there are handfuls of players with high ceilings who fall for one reason or another. Look at Mantha, drafted 20th overall, are you seriously going to suggest he doesn't have a PPG ceiling?

 

[Frk It]

He's 17 years old. Trying. To pinpoint his ceiling right now is damn near possible.

 

[Shaman464]

Teams don't draft based on ceiling alone. Year after year, there are handfuls of players with high ceilings who fall for one reason or another. Look at Mantha, drafted 20th overall, are you seriously going to suggest he doesn't have a PPG ceiling?

As I said, Usual priorities Go Franchise Center>Franchise Defenseman>Franchise Winger>Franchise Goalie. Players like Mantha who are elite wingers (ceiling) have and can fall to below the top ten, especially in years like last year that was absolutely stacked with talent. This year, had Mantha been a year younger, he would have gone top 5 almost without a doubt and possibly 1 or 2. Had Larkin been a year older he probably would have fallen to the second round pretty easily.

Remember, with Mantha, even after last season's performance people on these boards are still hard press to re-rank him top ten, that's how good the talent was last year.

 

[The Zermanator]

As I said, Usual priorities Go Franchise Center>Franchise Defenseman>Franchise Winger>Franchise Goalie. Players like Mantha who are elite wingers (ceiling) have and can fall to below the top ten, especially in years like last year that was absolutely stacked with talent. This year, had Mantha been a year younger, he would have gone top 5 almost without a doubt and possibly 1 or 2. Had Larkin been a year older he probably would have fallen to the second round pretty easily.

Remember, with Mantha, even after last season's performance people on these boards are still hard press to re-rank him top ten, that's how good the talent was last year.

Giroux was a centre with nearly 2 PPG in the QMJHL. He wasn't picked until 22nd.

1. There are more factors than ceiling that go into where a player is picked, ie. likelihood of reaching ceiling, size, area of need, etc.
2. As evidenced by busts chosen early and gems chosen late, drafting is at best an inexact science.

I don't want to go around in circles all day, you're simply wrong when you say that Larkin's ceiling is Filppula. There's no way you can make a judgment like that this early, especially when Larkin is one of the youngest in his draft class.