15-16 HFBoards Yahoo Fantasy Premier Keeper League - IX

Canucks LB · Dec 28, 2015

CRDragon said:
That's what a short week can do to ya...sht luck

Worked for me tho. 8-2 coming for the playoffs now

VanillaCoke · Dec 28, 2015

Momentarily mistook couturier for couture and almost lost my mind why he was on waivers

BrockH · Dec 29, 2015

Standings if this were a roto league:

Rank | Team Name | Total | G | A | +/- | PIM | PPP | SOG | BLK | W | GAA | SV%
1| Crystal Dragon| 94.5| 9| 11| 1| 12| 12| 11| 10| 11| 8| 9.5
2| ARSMASTER*| 82.5| 10.5| 9| 11| 8| 10| 10| 12| 3.5| 2| 6.5
3| ByeWeek (SC)| 75.5| 12| 10| 12| 10| 9| 8| 5| 3.5| 5| 1
4| Doctor Balls Mahoney| 70.5| 10.5| 12| 7| 6| 11| 12| 1| 8| 1| 2
5| Canucker| 69.5| 4| 8| 2| 11| 8| 7| 4| 3.5| 11| 11
6| Archangel 12| 69| 7| 1| 4| 3| 2| 5| 11| 12| 12| 12
7| VANILLAAA| 65| 8| 6| 9| 7| 4| 6| 9| 3.5| 6| 6.5
8| BrockH| 65| 6| 4| 6| 9| 5.5| 9| 8| 10| 4| 3.5
9| The A-Team| 48.5| 2| 7| 8| 2| 7| 3| 7| 6| 3| 3.5
10| JannikAtTheDisco| 48| 3| 3| 3| 1| 5.5| 1| 3| 9| 10| 9.5
11| Lucbourdon| 47.5| 5| 5| 5| 5| 3| 4| 6| 1| 7| 6.5
12| Mustangs| 44.5| 1| 2| 10| 4| 1| 2| 2| 7| 9| 6.5

Arsmaster had a big gain (+7pts) to take over 2nd place in the roto standings on the back of a very strong goaltending week (+1pt GAA, +3pts SV%). Conversely, BrockH dropped back down 7pts, also due to goaltending (1 bad start where Varlamov gave up 6), which gives you an idea just how tight the goaltending categories are. Vanilla was the other big mover, with a 6pt drop. With BrockH, Vanilla, and Archangel (-1.5pts, but 7th to 6th) all dropping roto points, Canucker was able to jump from 8th to 5th in the Roto standings.

It's worth noting that the top 4 teams all have exceptional offenses. What separates CRD is he also has strong goaltending.

The "Contested Category" stat is still a work in progress. I've adjusted some of the parameters and thresholds (which are based on my own subjective perception of stat variance). How it works is, I've assumed a linear corellation between win probability and historical stat differential, and from that I determine a win probability for the favourite. If that probability is under 66.7%, then the category is contested.

For example, CRD on average scores 3 goals more than A-Team. I've (fairly arbitrarily) decided each 0.53 goal advantage correlates to a 10% win % advantage. Based on that, CRD has a 78% chance of winning the goals category (3/0.53= 56% advantage; i.e. 22% A-Team, 78% CRD).

This week we have an extremely close matchup between Canucker and Archangel (adjusted prediciton is a 5-5 tie). LB vs Mustangs could go anywhere from a blowout to a draw, with 8 closely contested categories. But the biggest matchup is Arsmaster vs Balls, as the two compete for top spot in the league.

Team Name | Actual Rank | Roto Rank | Luck Factor | Avg Opp Roto Rank Faced (Avg Roto Pts) | Past Opp Strength Rank (1st Has Had Hardest Schedule to Date) | Avg Opp Roto Rank Left (Avg Pts) | Futre Opp Strength Ranking (1st Has Easiest Sched Left)
ARSMASTER* |1| 2| +1 |6.91 (63.41) |11 |6.91 (63.41) |2
Doctor Balls Mahoney |2| 4| +2 |6.73 (64.50) |9 |6.73 (64.50) |4
Archangel 12 |3| 6| +3 |6.55 (64.64) |7 |6.55 (64.64) |6
Crystal Dragon |4| 1| -3 |7.00 (62.32) |12 |7.00 (62.32) |1
BrockH |5| 8| +3 |6.36 (65.00) |5 |6.36 (65.00) |7
ByeWeek (SC) |6| 3| -3 |6.82 (64.05) |10 |6.82 (64.05) |3
Lucbourdon |7| 11| +4 |6.09 (66.59) |2 |6.09 (66.59) |11
The A-Team |8| 9| +1 |6.27 (66.50) |4 |6.27 (66.50) |9
Canucker |9| 5| -4 |6.64 (64.59) |8 |6.64 (64.59) |5
Mustangs |10| 12| +2 |6.00 (66.86) |1 |6.00 (66.86) |12
VANILLAAA |11| 7| -4 |6.45 (65.00) |6 |6.45 (65.00) |8
JannikAtTheDisco |12| 10| -2 |6.18 (66.55) |3 |6.18 (66.55) |10

Luck factors are starting to reduce. I think this is the first week where no one is +/- 5. Luc got lucky again and is now a +4 (+3 last week), while Vanilla's now only a -4 (-5 last week). Canucker's now showing as a -4 luck rating too, because he climbed 3 roto spots but only 1 actual spot.

It's worth noting that the Luck Factor only considers ranking, and not the actual difference. I might tweak this in the future. For example, Luc is a +4, but he's within 1 roto point of 9th & 10th so he really should be 9th-12th, his only significant luck is a +2 getting him up to 7th. The significant luck swings would be:
CRD's -3, which corresponds to a +1 for Arsmaster, Balls, and Archangel
-1 for Canucker and -3 for Vanilla, which correspond to +1 for A-Team and Mustangs, and a +2 for Luc.

The rest of it can be considered random noise.

Balls Mahoney · Dec 29, 2015

Man, I'm feeling like the God Mode my team had through the first half of the season has been turned off. Granted I've faced top teams the last two weeks but I'm starting to think about shuffling the deck a bit. It was foolish to rely on Kane being on fire all season but I was hoping one of my other players would explode sooner than later. Also I feel like I'm dating my goaltending because it's completely bi-polar.

Hit me for trade talks. I'm open to talks about anything. Don't be afraid about pestering me if I don't respond. A lot of the time I open PMs about trade talks and want to think about it before responding. Wind up forgetting about it. :laugh:

Sasha Barkov is your new overlord.

Canucker · Dec 29, 2015

FacepalmBenning said:
Man, I'm feeling like the God Mode my team had through the first half of the season has been turned off. Granted I've faced top teams the last two weeks but I'm starting to think about shuffling the deck a bit. It was foolish to rely on Kane being on fire all season but I was hoping one of my other players would explode sooner than later. Also I feel like I'm dating my goaltending because it's completely bi-polar.

Hit me for trade talks. I'm open to talks about anything. Don't be afraid about pestering me if I don't respond. A lot of the time I open PMs about trade talks and want to think about it before responding. Wind up forgetting about it.

Sasha Barkov is your new overlord.

LB is going to love that you think he's a "top team". :laugh:

btw...Thanks Brock for the updated roto stats...always fun seeing them.

Balls Mahoney · Dec 29, 2015

Canucker said:
LB is going to love that you think he's a "top team".

btw...Thanks Brock for the updated roto stats...always fun seeing them.

Oh lol, I had already forgotten I played him a few weeks back. That's how memorable his team is. I was talking about Brock and Ars.

"Brock"

Canucks LB · Dec 29, 2015

Canucker said:
LB is going to love that you think he's a "top team".

btw...Thanks Brock for the updated roto stats...always fun seeing them.

lol I am far from a top team, but I should be a playoff team when mcdavid comes back. My trades are finally starting to look good, took a few weeks longer then expected, but it's paying off. Good calculation on my part

Anyways going 2 chat to talk trades.

Canucks LB · Dec 29, 2015

https://client01.chat.mibbit.com/?channel=#HFKeepers&server=irc.rizon.net

VanillaCoke · Dec 29, 2015

+4 in luck factor doesn't hurt either.

Canucks LB · Dec 29, 2015

VanillaCoke said:
+4 in luck factor doesn't hurt either.

Luck only came into play with mcdavid, losing my best player for the entire season so far. I lost 1 week due to not setting line ups properly, and 1 week from not getting 3 goalie starts accidentally.

I would be in a top 4 spot right now if those things did not happen.

My team is criminally underrated, especially my goal-tending. Go take a look at what Ramo and Reimer are doing this year.

Everything I am doing is calculated, the only big mistake I did was not seeing patrick kane's massive year.

Balls Mahoney · Dec 30, 2015

New Player Note Tue, Dec 29

Aleksander Barkov scored two goals and added an assist in a 3-1 win over the Canadiens on Tuesday.

Advice: A dominant performance by Barkov tonight and he now has 10 points in his last seven games. The former second overall pick is enjoying a breakout season. He hasn't even scratched the surface of his potential yet.
(Rotoworld.com)

Thar he blows!

VanillaCoke · Dec 30, 2015

Parise available to y'all playoff teams

Balls Mahoney · Dec 30, 2015

What's the difference between a beaver and Arsmaster's team?

I don't know but Arsmaster's team sucks.

BrockH · Dec 30, 2015

Lucbourdon said:
Luck only came into play with mcdavid, losing my best player for the entire season so far. I lost 1 week due to not setting line ups properly, and 1 week from not getting 3 goalie starts accidentally.

I would be in a top 4 spot right now if those things did not happen.

My team is criminally underrated, especially my goal-tending. Go take a look at what Ramo and Reimer are doing this year.

Everything I am doing is calculated, the only big mistake I did was not seeing patrick kane's massive year.

I love the BS. Also, I love that you say it's "calculated". Can I see your calculations? Here are some of mine:
You are 11th place in roto stats. That has nothing to do with missing your goalie starts in a random week. In fact, now that you point that out, you're even luckier than I thought, because your starts that week are excluded from H2H impact but included in your roto ranking.

I'm going to assume your McDavid replacements are Hanzal (your worst player Nov 3 - Dec 6th injury) and Tatar (your worst player since Dec 6th). Now, we don't know what McDavid would have done instead, but we do know what Patrick Kane did. So then, lets suppose instead of having Hanzal & Tatar, you'd had Kane, that gives you:

Player| GP| G| A| +/-| PIM| PPP| SOG| BLK
Patrick Kane| 26| 15| 22| 9| 16| 14| 88| 8
Hanzal + Tatar| 26| 6| 6| -16| 16| 3| 50| 17
Difference| 0| 9| 16| 25| 0| 11| 38| -9

How would that change the roto standings? Here:

Rank | Team Name | Total | G | A | +/- | PIM | PPP | SOG | BLK | W | GAA | SV%
1| Crystal Dragon| 94.5| 9| 11| 1| 12| 12| 11| 10| 11| 8| 9.5
2| ARSMASTER*| 82.5| 10.5| 9| 11| 8| 10| 10| 12| 3.5| 2| 6.5
3| ByeWeek (SC)| 75.5| 12| 10| 12| 10| 9| 8| 5| 3.5| 5| 1
4| Canucker| 69.5| 4| 8| 2| 11| 8| 7| 4| 3.5| 11| 11
5| Doctor Balls Mahoney| 69.5| 10.5| 12| 6| 6| 11| 12| 1| 8| 1| 2
6| Archangel 12| 67| 6| 1| 4| 3| 2| 4| 11| 12| 12| 12
7| BrockH| 63| 5| 4| 5| 9| 5.5| 9| 8| 10| 4| 3.5
8| VANILLAAA| 62.5| 8| 5| 8| 7| 3.5| 6| 9| 3.5| 6| 6.5
9| Lucbourdon| 57| 7| 7| 9| 5| 3.5| 5| 6| 1| 7| 6.5
10| JannikAtTheDisco| 48| 3| 3| 3| 1| 5.5| 1| 3| 9| 10| 9.5
11| The A-Team| 46.5| 2| 6| 7| 2| 7| 3| 7| 6| 3| 3.5
12| Mustangs| 44.5| 1| 2| 10| 4| 1| 2| 2| 7| 9| 6.5

Swapping Patrick Kane in for the injured McDavid would only make you the 9th best team in the league.

Oh, and as for your "underrated" goaltenders:
Roto stats do not involve any subjectivity. It's simply a statistical ranking of how your team has done this season, including your goalies. The only way it could "underrate" your goalies is if they are actually better than their stats indicate...

...your roto goalie rankings are not bad. You are 6th in GAA (2.42) and tied for 6th in SV% (.916). You are dead last in Wins. So really, the roto rankings say that your goalies are okay goalies on bad teams. That seems pretty accurate to me.
...Reimer has been very good this year. He is massively outperforming his career figures (.936SV% vs .915SV%, 1.96GAA vs 2.82GAA). There is no way on god's green earth that you can claim a roto ranking currently underrates Reimer, because that would mean you think his stats will be better moving forward. What on earth do you expect? A .945SV% and a 1.50GAA? There's no way Reimer will keep up a .936SV%, let alone improve on it. That means that the Roto ranking is overrating Reimer, not underrating him.
...Ramo's season numbers are marginally below his career figures. His last month has been good, and better than his career figures (.923SV%, 2.19GAA). So maybe he is marginally underrated.
Reimer's numbers will come back to earth, but you will also get a few more wins with him healthy. Ramo could keep it up, but that will at best offset it when Reimer's GAA and SV% come back to reality. You'll probably make up a couple roto points in wins, and if you're lucky stay even in SV% and GAA. If you're unlucky then SV% and GAA will regress to career numbers and you'll find yourself near the league bottom in all 3 goalie categories.

The bottom line is, the roto rankings are accurate. Your goalies are already measured fairly, and not even 2015 Patrick Kane, let alone McDavid, would save your team. It is hilarious to see you talk about the bad luck you've had, when the reality is, your team has been the luckiest in this league so far this season. Your team don't belong in the top 8, let alone the top 4.

BrockH · Dec 30, 2015

And for the record, I've poked fun at the trade, but I understand your rationale and don't think I've outright bashed it. But it's a long-term play. Trying to make it sound like it was a short-term play, and that you're in contention or improved in the current year...that's just a joke.

Balls Mahoney · Dec 30, 2015

Damn, and Luc hates me?

BrockH · Dec 30, 2015

FacepalmBenning said:
Damn, and Luc hates me?

I'm pretty sure Luc sees when I post and just goes "there goes that idiot with another wall of text", and he also realizes I'm not malicious (I'm careful only to bash his arguments, not him as a person). You on the other hand (in his eyes) deliberately string him along with multiple messages/posts, etc, and by the time he realizes that you're "wasting his time" it's already too late.

Also, that's an awesome Obama gif.

VanillaCoke · Dec 30, 2015

simon_witness_someone_getting_rekt_by_firestormthedragolf-d8o3rxn.jpg

Balls Mahoney · Dec 30, 2015

BrockH said:
I'm pretty sure Luc sees when I post and just goes "there goes that idiot with another wall of text", and he also realizes I'm not malicious (I'm careful only to bash his arguments, not him as a person). You on the other hand (in his eyes) deliberately string him along with multiple messages/posts, etc, and by the time he realizes that you're "wasting his time" it's already too late.

Also, that's an awesome Obama gif.

As someone who's been on the receiving end of one of your walls of text, they hurt bruh. :laugh:

Would I ever troll anyone in this league?

I think Luc hates me because he's trying to guilt me into giving him his first back. Little does he know his hate only makes the lulz stronger.

Canucks LB · Dec 30, 2015

I can pm again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Canucks LB · Dec 30, 2015

BrockH said:
And for the record, I've poked fun at the trade, but I understand your rationale and don't think I've outright bashed it. But it's a long-term play. Trying to make it sound like it was a short-term play, and that you're in contention or improved in the current year...that's just a joke.

Not saying irs a short term play. Just saying i would be higher up in the standings if he never got hurt.

Thats a fair comment

StrictlyCommercial · Dec 30, 2015

My team appears to be struggling on autopilot but I can't be arsed to fix my lineup while on vacation.

CRDragon · Jan 1, 2016

Happy New Year! Wish everyone a wonderful 2016!

Canucks LB · Jan 1, 2016

Nobody pmed me since I am able 2 again

VanillaCoke · Jan 2, 2016

Happy new year ppls.

Get ready for the playoff push

15-16 HFBoards Yahoo Fantasy Premier Keeper League - IX

My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you

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2015-2016 HF Premier League World Champion

My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you

My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you

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My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you

2015-2016 HF Premier League World Champion

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2015-2016 HF Premier League World Champion

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2015-2016 HF Premier League World Champion

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My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you

My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you

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My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you

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