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GDT: #14 - 11/4/13 | Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers | 7:30 PM - MSG, NBCSN

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Tawnos said:
My response to talking about things in a vacuum would be: "who cares?"
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Ok, but do you have proof that teams that win 3 in a row lose the 4th game more than 50% of the time? Or are you looking at a 4 game winning streak in totality? Because if you are, we're 3/4 of the way there and it doesn't matter that most teams don't win 4 in a row, because you have to win 3 in a row to begin with and the Rangers already did that.
 
For simplicity purposes, it's like saying "it's rare to see someone flip heads 4 times in a row". So you flip 3 heads in a row, do you really think that the 4th flip's chances change? It's hard to flip 3 heads in a row to begin with (1/8 chance). So you already flipped 3 heads in a row, your 4th flip is 1/2.
 
IamTheBlueSeats said:
Anyone else besides me feel that this game is a must-win?
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Nope. Even though Anaheim is a wounded team at the end of a long road trip, they are still a legit good team (unlike last year where they played above their heads).

I think we have a good chance to win this one, but it is not the end of the world if we don't.

I mean I'm going to be pissed off as hell if we lose, but from an objective perspective it isn't a disaster.
 
Last stop of a long and successful road trip for the Ducks, go out hard and redeem yourself boys!
 
SnowblindNYR said:
Right, he said "history>theory" like he disagreed even in a vacuum. Also, theory is basically math. You're not beating math.
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Again, I've never even been talking about things in a vacuum. You have. And again, trends are better indicators of future results than odds. The math simply doesn't matter in this case, because it can only be used to treat situations that aren't real.

It's not that I don't understand the principle, because I do. It's that I don't think the principle applies.
 
IamTheBlueSeats said:
Anyone else besides me feel that this game is a must-win?
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banned4.jpg
 
Tawnos said:
Again, I've never even been talking about things in a vacuum. You have. And again, trends are better indicators of future results than odds. The math simply doesn't matter in this case, because it can only be used to treat situations that aren't real.

It's not that I don't understand the principle, because I do. It's that I don't think the principle applies.
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It's POSSIBLE you may be right because I agree that the NHL cannot be played in a vacuum. However, do you have any stats that show that the 4th game after a 3 game winning streak is usually a loss? Or at least a loss more often than average? If not, then it's possible that it just seems that way. Plus as I've said, it may be possible that if you're taking it in a global view (4 game winning streak, rather than 4th game of a three game winning streak), you're forgetting that chances are slim that you win three in a row to begin with and that there are way more scenarios where a team loses at least once in those three games. If a team has a 75% chance of winning every game (VERY HIGH), it still only has about a 42% chance of winning 3 in a row. So to even get in the position where winning the 4th game gives a 4 game winning streak is pretty damn hard. If looking in totality of teams winning 4 in a row you have to factor out all of the scenarios in the first 3 games because they already happened and have already been won (which would SIGNIFICANTLY change the odds of winning 4 in a row) UNLESS you have stats that show that outside factors influence game 4 (such as psychology).
 
I said at the very beginning that I'm not looking into the statistics right now. I'm at work. But the one team I looked at for last season, being the Bruins, lost the 4th game after winning 3 in a row 4 out of 5 chances.
 
Tawnos said:
I said at the very beginning that I'm not looking into the statistics right now. I'm at work. But the one team I looked at for last season, being the Bruins, lost the 4th game after winning 3 in a row 4 out of 5 chances.
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Small sample size, but if there is a stat like that (and it's significant), then you'll be more than likely right, unless it's some sort of statistical anomaly.
 
Oh brother. A non-conference matchup with less than 20% of the season played is now a "must-win?"
 
BroadwayBlues said:
Hmm.

Kreider--Stepan--Zuccarello
Pouliot--Richards--Callahan
Hagelin--Brassard--Pyatt
Mashinter--Boyle--Dorsett

???


Pyatt......:facepalm: You need to tell me, Miller can't play on the 3rd line with Hagelin/Brassard? :facepalm:
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Pyatt will be here all season. We all better just get used to it. He won't be traded because no team wants him. He isn't a huge detriment out there but he brings next to nothing to the table either. Completely and utterly mediocre.
 
I wouldn't hate Pyatt in the lineup so ****ing much if he would just stop with the offensive zone penalties that are totally unprovoked. Those and how slow he is. Dear lord. AV wants a speed game but why the **** is the slowest skater on the team still in????
 
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