GDT: #13 | Flyers at Hurricanes | Tuesday, November 5, 2024 | 7:00 PM | NBCSP, 97.5 FM

[deadhead]

Do I have to explain the incredibly basic concept of "young player with high potential is worth more than same player but older who failed to live up to that potential" to you? Because I have to be honest, it's so simple and such an automatic assumption that there isn't any way I can do it without it coming off extremely condescending and like I'm explaining it to a 5 year old. Is this really the path you want to go down? Because I'll do it if that's the case.

Or are you willing to admit maybe you're entertaining a completely insane position here, and that maybe you were wrong about Provorov's value being at it's highest in June 2023, and you're doing it because you can't come up with another example for the question I asked you earlier?

I didn't say his value was at its highest, I said his value was pretty flat over his career.
Provorov was a workout freak and physically mature at 19, at 24, same body, same player.
He's not a bad player, he's having a good season paired with Werenski.
But he's never been recognized as a top D-man, not in 2017-18, not now.

 

[deadhead]

Do I have to explain the basic concept of "young player with high potential is worth more than same player but older who failed to live up to that potential" to you? Because I have to be honest, it's so simple and such an automatic assumption that there isn't any way I can do it without it coming off extremely condescending and like I'm explaining it to a 5 year old. Is this really the path you want to go down? Because I'll do it if that's the case.

Or are you willing to admit maybe you're entertaining a completely insane position here, that maybe you were wrong about Provorov's value being at it's highest in June 2023, and you're doing it because you can't come up with another example for the question I asked you earlier?

I have no idea what point you're trying to make?
That the Flyers should have traded Provorov in the summer of 2018? 2020?
I mean this whole conversation is silly.

Basically you want to blame Briere for not being GM five years ago?
He wasn't able to do anything until the summer of 2023.
He then proceeded to trade Provorov, dump Hayes and TDA.
This summer he bought out Atkinson and probably would have bought out Johansen.
So the complaint is he didn't trade Seeler and Hathaway for a 3rd and 4th so they could play Eklind and Ginning this season?

 

[freakydallas13]

I didn't say his value was at its highest, I said his value was pretty flat over his career.
Provorov was a workout freak and physically mature at 19, at 24, same body, same player.
He's not a bad player, he's having a good season paired with Werenski.
But he's never been recognized as a top D-man, not in 2017-18, not now.

Great, his value was pretty flat over his career. It's a stupid proposition I disagree wholeheartedly with, but let's assume for the sake of argument it's true.

It's impossible to sell high on Provorov, because his value was flat; there are no peaks on a flat plain. It's also equally true that trading him summer 2023 is selling low in that case.

So now that we agree it was definitionally impossible for the team to sell high on Provorov, give me a single player Briere sold high on. And one who Briere sold because that player's value was high.

I have no idea what point you're trying to make?
That the Flyers should have traded Provorov in the summer of 2018? 2020?
I mean this whole conversation is silly.

Basically you want to blame Briere for not being GM five years ago?
He wasn't able to do anything until the summer of 2023.
He then proceeded to trade Provorov, dump Hayes and TDA.
This summer he bought out Atkinson and probably would have bought out Johansen.
So the complaint is he didn't trade Seeler and Hathaway for a 3rd and 4th so they could play Eklind and Ginning this season?

I wasn't even having a conversation with you, I commented on someone else's post about how Briere isn't a GM like the Canes' GM because the Canes sell high on players and Briere doesn't.

You came in and started sounding off about how Provorov was selling high, not me. Don't get upset at me because your proposition makes no sense. If you read my first post, I explicitly stated I don't blame Briere for not Fletcher's mistake, but I also don't give him credit for "trading Provorov at a high" like you seem to think he did.

 

[deadhead]

Great, his value was pretty flat over his career. It's a stupid proposition I disagree wholeheartedly with, but let's assume for the sake of argument it's true.

It's impossible to sell high on Provorov, because his value was flat; there are no peaks on a flat plain. It's also equally true that trading him summer 2023 is selling low in that case.

So now that we agree it was definitionally impossible for the team to sell high on Provorov, give me a single player Briere sold high on. And one who Briere sold because that player's value was high.

The only player that fits that description would have been TK.
There was no one else with significant trade value.
Seeler, Hathaway, Laughton (who's value this year is probably greater than two years ago).
Couts, Sanheim and Risto were untradeable last summer due to contracts.
Frost's value was down from a year ago.
Farabee was damaged goods with the neck injury.

So you want Briere to do the impossible.

 

[freakydallas13]

The only player that fits that description would have been TK.
There was no one else with significant trade value.
Seeler, Hathaway, Laughton (who's value this year is probably greater than two years ago).
Couts, Sanheim and Risto were untradeable last summer due to contracts.
Frost's value was down from a year ago.
Farabee was damaged goods with the neck injury.

So you want Briere to do the impossible.

Go. Read. My. Posts. I'm begging you.

This is the 4th time I've told you this. I don't care about "significant value", this is some stupid point you keep bringing up and I keep telling you you're missing my point entirely. I care about that player's value compared to the same player's value in the past.

Seeler at the deadline last season was worth more than probably any other time in his career. Briere resigned him, despite the fact his value was at it's peak.

 

[deadhead]

Go. Read. My. Posts. I'm begging you.

This is the 4th time I've told you this. I don't care about "significant value", this is some stupid point you keep being up and I keep telling you you're missing my point entirely. I care about that player's value compared to the same player's value in the past.

Seeler at the deadline last season was worth more than probably any other time in his career. Briere resigned him, despite the fact his value was at it's peak.

Who cares? What happened before Briere is meaningless.
There is no "Flyers mafia." Briere is the GM, he makes the decisions.

 

[freakydallas13]

Who cares? What happened before Briere is meaningless.
There is no "Flyers mafia." Briere is the GM, he makes the decisions.

Presumably you care, seeing as you inserted yourself into a conversation that didn't involve you, to defend this team.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Briere just hired 2 MS degrees for the analytics group, that's a real commitment, not inflating numbers by hiring an intern or two. So they are obviously putting a bigger emphasis there.

Carolina gave Kotkaniemi an 8 year, AVV $4.8M deal on an offer sheet, first three years of the deal, 25, 31 and 24 ES points.
They gave Martinook a 3x3M deal at age 31. Gave Staal 4x$2.9M deal at age 35.
Signed Carrier to a 6x$2M deal starting at 30. Similar player to Hathaway.

Now they have more raw talent, their base was created when Peters badly coached this team for four years before BrindA'mour took over. That culminated in missing the POs 8 straight seasons.
Funny thing, they drafted well during that period, but traded away their top 10 picks:
2012: #120 Slavin
2013: #5 Lindholm #66 Pesce
2014: #7 Fleury, #66 Foegle
2015: #5 Hanifan, #35 Aho
2016; #13 Bean, #21 Gauthier
2017: #12 Necas, #42 Luostarinen
2018: #2 Svechnikov, #42 Drury
Since they turned things around, only successful picks are 2020: #13 Jarvis, 2021: #109 Blake.
they've relied on FA signings to fill out the roster the last couple years

The young core is at forward, Aho, Necas, Jarvis, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Drury, Blake.
So draft forwards and sign/trade for veteran D-men?
Slavin (30), Burns (39), Orlov (33), Ghost (31), Walker (30).

"The FLyers just hired ___________ as analysts" is a thing we've heard what, 3? times now?


It doesn't matter at all when they just ignore who they hire. Fletcher admitted the analysts implored him to never do the Risto trade, and he did it anyway.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

He’s still #2 on my list, I mean Billy Tibbets was a f***ing rapist. Even Torts is better than that.

Plus when I think of Torts, #2 often comes to mind

Torts should probably be #3?

 

[bennysflyers16]

Briere makes the decisions, good lord above, how many examples does one require LOL

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

People on Facebook thought they played a good game

Look at future superstar Jett's OHL stats

3 Games played
1 Assist
-3

That can't be right for slam dunk , Top 6 center next year can it ?

Aren’t they one of the worst teams in the OHL?

 

[deadhead]

"The FLyers just hired ___________ as analysts" is a thing we've heard what, 3? times now?


It doesn't matter at all when they just ignore who they hire. Fletcher admitted the analysts implored him to never do the Risto trade, and he did it anyway.

You don't hire MS data people on a whim, because they're expensive.
It suggests Briere values analytics, certainly more than dinosaurs like Fletcher or Holmgren.
And if he's any good, he doesn't blindly depend on analytics, b/c they have their flaws.

Briere isn't a size queen, which is what you'd expect given his experience as an undersized player.
But I'll bet he values the intangibles that allowed him to succeed over pure skill, b/c I'm sure he saw plenty of players who had more raw talent fail to play up to his level.

People on Facebook thought they played a good game


Aren’t they one of the worst teams in the OHL?

Second worst, 35 goals in 14 games, Peterborough has 34 goals in 15 games.
The leader is Windsor, with 71 goals in 15 games.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Who cares? What happened before Briere is meaningless.
There is no "Flyers mafia." Briere is the GM, he makes the decisions.

Co-GM needs approval.

You don't hire MS data people on a whim, because they're expensive.
It suggests Briere values analytics, certainly more than dinosaurs like Fletcher or Holmgren.
And if he's any good, he doesn't blindly depend on analytics, b/c they have their flaws.

Briere isn't a size queen, which is what you'd expect given his experience as an undersized player.
But I'll bet he values the intangibles that allowed him to succeed over pure skill, b/c I'm sure he saw plenty of players who had more raw talent fail to play up to his level.


Second worst, 35 goals in 14 games, Peterborough has 34 goals in 15 games.
The leader is Windsor, with 71 goals in 15 games.

Clearly he does.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

You don't hire MS data people on a whim, because they're expensive.
It suggests Briere values analytics, certainly more than dinosaurs like Fletcher or Holmgren.
And if he's any good, he doesn't blindly depend on analytics, b/c they have their flaws.

We’re just making shit up again.

Both Hextall and Fletcher hired people with qualifications like that. There were many more people working for the team than the ones listed on the website. Fletcher was the first NHL GM to hire from the public analytics sphere. One of the very first batch was a Carnegie Mellon faculty member in a related department.

If you asked me to point to a GM who valued analytics highly, but didn't understand how to weaponize it, the very first name that would come to mind is Chuck Fletcher.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You don't hire MS data people on a whim, because they're expensive.
It suggests Briere values analytics, certainly more than dinosaurs like Fletcher or Holmgren.
And if he's any good, he doesn't blindly depend on analytics, b/c they have their flaws.

Briere isn't a size queen, which is what you'd expect given his experience as an undersized player.
But I'll bet he values the intangibles that allowed him to succeed over pure skill, b/c I'm sure he saw plenty of players who had more raw talent fail to play up to his level.


Second worst, 35 goals in 14 games, Peterborough has 34 goals in 15 games.
The leader is Windsor, with 71 goals in 15 games.

If Briere placed any stock in analytics this team would be run in wildly different fashion.

 

[deadhead]

We’re just making shit up again.

Both Hextall and Fletcher hired people with qualifications like that. There were many more people working for the team than the ones listed on the website. Fletcher was the first NHL GM to hire from the public analytics sphere. One of the very first batch was a Carnegie Mellon faculty member in a related department.

If you asked me to point to a GM who valued analytics highly, but didn't understand how to weaponize it, the very first name that would come to mind is Chuck Fletcher.

Which suggests he hired people more to show he was trying to stay relevant rather than as a tool to improve his decisionmaking.

One reason I'm so skeptical about private equity was being hired to develop the rationale for an investment they had already decided to make before they analyzed the market. Taught me what people should do and what they actually do are two different things.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Which suggests he hired people more to show he was trying to stay relelvant rather than as a tool to improve his decisionmaking.

One reason I'm so skeptical about private equity was being hired to develop the rationale for an investment they had already decided to make before they analyzed the market. Taught me what people should do and what they actually do are two different things.

There is no reason to believe Briere is any different. Evidence shows he is not. The management group that did what you say? Still in charge, minus Fletcher and a Scott who was completely checked out and irrelevant.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I mean, it is kinda wild that Scott got pushed out because he was so aloof he let the incompetents run loose...and Hilferty's solution is to be more engaged and let the incompetents run loose.

Nothing changes 'cause it's all the same

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Which suggests he hired people more to show he was trying to stay relevant rather than as a tool to improve his decisionmaking.

One reason I'm so skeptical about private equity was being hired to develop the rationale for an investment they had already decided to make before they analyzed the market. Taught me what people should do and what they actually do are two different things.

Stay relevant to whom? The 47 dopes like me who knew who AC Thomas was in 2012?

 

[deadhead]

Stay relevant to whom? The 47 dopes like me who knew who AC Thomas was in 2012?

Yep. And the GMs who were getting lauded in the trade/national press for using analytics and being forward thinking.

The NHL is a pretty incestuous group, 32 GMs, 32 HCs, a hundred or so assistants and so on. One way to stay in the loop after the inevitable firing is to manage perceptions of this group.