Prospect Info: 10th overall: Vancouver selects Vasili Podkolzin (RW, SKA St. Petersburg)

[Spectrefire]

With Benning getting extended, this is more or less guaranteed to happen now. If the opportunity is there to sign him in March, I'm sure Jim will jump all over it like he did with Boeser and Hughes.

Why is that a Jim Benning thing? That's literally what every team does.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Why is that a Jim Benning thing? That's literally what every team does.

Because with Benning's new extension they need to pump him up as much as possible. That's why we all suddenly became toxic a couple of days ago.

 

[ChilliBilly]

The problem will be $'s. He may be good enough in a couple of years that he can make more in the KHL than on an ELC. Also, we have a glut of players will have us in cap hell next year.

I really think that one of the changes that should be made to contract rules is that ELC bonuses should not count against the cap. It penalizes teams for having players play well, even when their salaries are limited.

 

[forty47seven]

Why is that a Jim Benning thing? That's literally what every team does.

It really isn't.

Because with Benning's new extension they need to pump him up as much as possible. That's why we all suddenly became toxic a couple of days ago.

Interesting interpretation. I don't know how you got that from what I wrote. Does everything boil down to us vs them for you?

 

[timw33]

The problem will be $'s. He may be good enough in a couple of years that he can make more in the KHL than on an ELC. Also, we have a glut of players will have us in cap hell next year.

I really think that one of the changes that should be made to contract rules is that ELC bonuses should not count against the cap. It penalizes teams for having players play well, even when their salaries are limited.

I think teams just need to properly account for these bonuses and treat EP as a the $3.775MM cap hit that he is, not $925k. It's a totally fair system and teams get an absolute bargain from these ELC contracts even with max bonuses.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

Because with Benning's new extension they need to pump him up as much as possible. That's why we all suddenly became toxic a couple of days ago.

Oh yes this. A thousand times this!

Should have recognized the blatant foreshadowing I guess. Shame BenningNtheJets twitter had to be the first casualty though. I'm going to miss that.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Interesting interpretation. I don't know how you got that from what I wrote. Does everything boil down to us vs them for you?

Has nothing to do with you personally. It's what we've been observing here for years.

 

[F A N]

Doesn't Podkolzin need advance notice that he wants to get out of his KHL contract? That aside, if Podkolzin is a top 3 talent then signing him to play some games towards the end of next season is not a concern. His ELC will slide if he doesn't play 10 games. A good comparable is Kravtsov in terms of contract.

The problem will be $'s. He may be good enough in a couple of years that he can make more in the KHL than on an ELC. Also, we have a glut of players will have us in cap hell next year.

I really think that one of the changes that should be made to contract rules is that ELC bonuses should not count against the cap. It penalizes teams for having players play well, even when their salaries are limited.

I don't think $ is that of a concern. Given his draft position his AAV should be between max $1.62M to 1.775M AAV. He basically needs to be a 20 goal scoring top 6 player to earn that. And the earliest he can earn that is 2020-2021 season. Plenty of players come off the books after that to deal with the any bonus cushion issues.

 

[Wayward Son]

When did the Russians annex Sweden?

 

[forty47seven]

Doesn't Podkolzin need advance notice that he wants to get out of his KHL contract? That aside, if Podkolzin is a top 3 talent then signing him to play some games towards the end of next season is not a concern. His ELC will slide if he doesn't play 10 games. A good comparable is Kravtsov in terms of contract.

When does Podkolzin's contract exprie? Does it end when his team is out of the 20-21 playoffs or is it after the KHL finals? Boeser and Hughes both played fewer than 10 games and burned a year off their deals. I think the ELC slide rules are based on age when the contract is signed. Podkolzin will be about as old as Boeser was so he would presumably have similar rules on his deal.

Krarsov is a good comparible, for sure.

 

[F A N]

When does Podkolzin's contract exprie? Does it end when his team is out of the 20-21 playoffs or is it after the KHL finals? Boeser and Hughes both played fewer than 10 games and burned a year off their deals. I think the ELC slide rules are based on age when the contract is signed. Podkolzin will be about as old as Boeser was so he would presumably have similar rules on his deal.

Krarsov is a good comparible, for sure.

Podkolzin's has a KHL contract so it expires when his KHL team's season ends in 2020-2021 season. I thought you were saying that we might sign him in March (of next year) so I brought up the ELC slide rules.

 

[Lindgren]

On 1040 a few minutes ago one of Abbott or Paterson said that Podkolzin has had two fights so far in exhibition play in the KHL. Anybody have details (more interested in points and ice time than fights)?

I know it's only preseason, but it's hockey.

 

[F A N]

On 1040 a few minutes ago one of Abbott or Paterson said that Podkolzin has had two fights so far in exhibition play in the KHL. Anybody have details (more interested in points and ice time than fights)?

I know it's only preseason, but it's hockey.

I think he already has a ready-made boxer nickname. Vasili "Raging Bull" Podkolzin.

 

[sting101]

Raging Bull.....i like it

 

[Tables of Stats]

I think you should look at a player's entire body of work. But the thing with these international tournaments is that it allows you to watch prospects play against his peers and in the case of WJC and WC against older players. That's valuable when you're trying to compare a guy like Podkolzin who played in multiple leagues in Russia and didn't produce a great numbers and a prospect racking up points in the USNTDP.

Is it really not a concern if a supposedly top prospect is invisible in the international tournaments? Top players tend to rise to the occasion and there's a lot at stake at these international tournaments.

Personally, I don't think Podkolzin dropped due to some bad international tournaments. He's not a C, he is saying in Russia for 2 more years, and I think come draft time many scouts didn't think he was top 3 in terms of skill level and hockey IQ.

Looking at a tournament is like looking at a random sampling of games from any season. Only now you have to account for chemistry, new systems, travel, etc. as well. I think that fans especially place way too much focus on these things as opposed to doing the real work of watching 30+ games of a player's shifts. One is not a substitute for the other.

 

[F A N]

Looking at a tournament is like looking at a random sampling of games from any season. Only now you have to account for chemistry, new systems, travel, etc. as well. I think that fans especially place way too much focus on these things as opposed to doing the real work of watching 30+ games of a player's shifts. One is not a substitute for the other.

I never said it was a substitute. I said you should look at a player's entire body of work. But you have to account for the quality of competition and linemates as well. The international tournaments are an important barometer because it gives you more information. Prospects are not only representing their country but they are auditioning for NHL teams. If you have a player who isn't treating this seriously do you want to draft this player? If you have a player who racks up points against the lesser teams and then is invisible against the stronger teams is it not a red flag? There were games against the traditional hockey powers where Podkolzin was the best player on the ice. That's important when he didn't dominate against players who were older and bigger than him in Russia.

International tournaments aren't necessarily a random sampling. We're not talking about 1 tournament. We're talking about multiple tournaments as well as previous years. Again, international tournaments give you more information. That's what it is and you can choose to pay attention to it or ignore it or somewhere in between.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Pod is our Drago:

 

[Ryp37]

On 1040 a few minutes ago one of Abbott or Paterson said that Podkolzin has had two fights so far in exhibition play in the KHL. Anybody have details (more interested in points and ice time than fights)?

I know it's only preseason, but it's hockey.

More helmets and gloves then a fight

 

[F A N]

More helmets and gloves then a fight

It's still a fight. I consider pillow fights to be fights too.

 

[Hemty]

It's still a fight. I consider pillow fights to be fights too.

You'll see those a lot in the KHL, cause if you drop the gloves, like literally, in a fight, you get fined and suspended.
The whole "fighting" in the KHL just looks ridiculous.

 

[Lindgren]

It's still a fight. I consider pillow fights to be fights too.

You'll see those a lot in the KHL, cause if you drop the gloves, like literally, in a fight, you get fined and suspended.
The whole "fighting" in the KHL just looks ridiculous.

I'm not a fight fan, so I'm no expert, but that looked a bit more vigorous than a lot of what we see in the NHL, which amounts to hugs and falling over.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

If I had to take a couple to the head myself I would much rather it be by a guy without a glove on and I would choose to have no glove on so I could grab and defend myself... I would guess that if NHL fighters (staged fights I mean, not scrum fights) fought like that then there would be a heap of one-punch knockouts.
Eg boxers wear gloves so they can hit much harder without breaking their hands.

Disclaimer. I have had zero fights on skates.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

It's still a fight. I consider pillow fights to be fights too.

 

[Fatass]

It's still a fight. I consider pillow fights to be fights too.

Considering fighting with bare knuckles in hockey means cutting your hands on helmets and visors, I’m all for guys keeping their mitts on.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I never said it was a substitute. I said you should look at a player's entire body of work. But you have to account for the quality of competition and linemates as well. The international tournaments are an important barometer because it gives you more information. Prospects are not only representing their country but they are auditioning for NHL teams. If you have a player who isn't treating this seriously do you want to draft this player? If you have a player who racks up points against the lesser teams and then is invisible against the stronger teams is it not a red flag? There were games against the traditional hockey powers where Podkolzin was the best player on the ice. That's important when he didn't dominate against players who were older and bigger than him in Russia.

International tournaments aren't necessarily a random sampling. We're not talking about 1 tournament. We're talking about multiple tournaments as well as previous years. Again, international tournaments give you more information. That's what it is and you can choose to pay attention to it or ignore it or somewhere in between.

I agree with that, but I think league play is a better tool than tournaments for judging a player's true talent. We've seen amazing players go on cold streaks and poor players tear up tournaments. We've seen teams underplay gifted players and give mediocre players prime minutes.

In Podkolzin's case, I think we have to look at his numbers in context with the teams he's played on.

Draft -1

U-17 (All): He was the third-best scorer for the Russian squad with a 0.92 PPG pace. You could have hoped for a little more given the ages of the players who outscored him. That said, in a 10 game sample size I think any of Podkolzin, Gutlik, or Likhachyov could have taken the scoring lead as all were with a few points of the PPG line.

U-18 (All): Neither Gutlik nor Likhachyov joined him at this stage, likely due to their ages, but it's still a mark in his favor that he made the team. Nobody on this team was over a PPG but the players closest to the mark are all a year older the Podkolzin. Given that I and how Russia typically favors older players for these tournaments, I think a 0.58 PPg place isn't exactly unexpected.

Draft

U-18 (All): We can compare him to Gutlik and Likhachyov again as a benchmark. Remember how in the previous season Russia didn't have a PPG player? This time out Podkolzin was at a 1.27 PPG pace with the next best player only reaching 0.81 PPG.

U-20 (All): Here again we see him make the team as a younger player. Gutik and Likhackyov didn't join him so we'll have to look at them next to him this season. The players who played above him in U-18 last season are now above him at this level and scoring at or above a PPG pace while Podkolzin is hovering near a 0.5 PPG pace (I know it was technically 0.42 PPG but one more point and he's at 0.5 PPG). Given his jump at the U-18 level, we should hope to see him crest the PPG barrier and be among, if not the top scorer on his team.

I get that going PPG and then under 0.5 PPG aren't exactly sexy numbers, and that his numbers in the other 3 men's leagues aren't exactly mind-blowing. That said, how many players can really shine playing for 5 teams, against 5 different levels of competition. His longest stint with any team is 26 games for the U-18 squad with 14 and 12 being his next longest stays with any teams. That's a fairly rare situation and to see him continually being pushed up to the next level after such a short timeframe is encouraging.

TLDR; I think he's tracking well on teams where nobody is really knocking it out of the park. He's also the highest-scoring player when you combine his U-18 and U-20 stats together. That doesn't factor in games played and PPG but that's hardly a bad sign.