Speculation: Zibanejad contract

[bernmeister]

With Couturier getting 7.75 for 8 years, what does Zibanejad’s contract look like?

Similar ages, similar level of player, similar late breakouts for both of them. Zibanejad is also due for a new contract after this season. What does his contract look like?

The $ is not an issue IF IF IF it is on the following terms, which club must hold firm to, otherwise deal now for highest return....

4 years no more
ok as a new deal to replace existing 5+ last yr [as opposed to add on]
no nmc
limited ntc 22 clubs he can submit no trade at beginning of yr

we pay him 10.5 in return
say honestly, we intend to keep you
but
if have to move you retained for Matthews
or if there is another reason we have to move you
including recover cap,
then understand
we have to go there

otherwise, we do prefer to keep you,
but
only on these terms

$$ for club flexibility

only downside to that deal is it might delay long term [thus cost saving] contract for Fox

if he is adamant and wants more than 4 yrs, even less $, the answer is no.

 

[Lays]

Couturier is better than Zibanejad

He’s really not. Zib has worse linemates and produces significantly more offensively while also being steady defensively. Couturier only produces a little under PPG while playing with Giroux+Voracek. The defensive gap between Couturier and Zibanejad isn’t greater than the offensive gap, and when Couturier has been matched up against Zibanejad, he can’t shut him down. Let’s remember the back to back 6 point games Zib had against the Flyers

 

[KevinRedkey]

He’s really not. Zib has worse linemates and produces significantly more offensively while also being steady defensively. Couturier only produces a little under PPG while playing with Giroux+Voracek. The defensive gap between Couturier and Zibanejad isn’t greater than the offensive gap, and when Couturier has been matched up against Zibanejad, he can’t shut him down. Let’s remember the back to back 6 point games Zib had against the Flyers

Couturier mostly plays with JVR and Farabee...

 

[Lays]

Couturier mostly plays with JVR and Farabee...

My bad I just checked Daily Faceoff and it says Giroux-Voracek. Point stands regardless

 

[HugeInTheShire]

Zib should come in somewhere in the same area as Couturier, maybe a little less if he stays in NY and some GM (You just hope it's not yours) probably gives him over 9 on the open market

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Zibanejad is better than Tavares by a significant margin right now

Yeah he is now but he’s worse compared to when Tavares was signed 3 years ago

 

[KevinRedkey]

My bad I just checked Daily Faceoff and it says Giroux-Voracek. Point stands regardless

I dont think it does stand. The linemates argument was a big factor IMO.

Last year:
Zibanejad: 0.893 PPG
Couturier: 0.911 PPG

Last 3 years:
Zibanejad: 1.020 PPG
Couturier: 0.907 PPG

Zibanejad had 1 insane year with 40 goals that stands out significantly. But even with that factored in, the offensive numbers are still relatively close. Couts gets more points even strength than Zibanejad does (Zib has 24 more ppp in last 3 years), and the gap defensively is much larger as Couturier is literally a Selke winner. I also don't agree that Zibanejad is above average defensively for a top center. He's just normal/average which is not bad. Couturier is just a monster defensively.

Ive made my points. Some are opinions (like how close they are defensively for example). Feel free to reply and ill read it, but i'll agree to disagree at this point if you're not convinced.

 

[Some Other Flame]

At 9M, probably closer to 10M on a six to eight year deal.

 

[Juicy Pop]

Couturier is better than Zibanejad

I'd say they're about even and offense is still probably going to get you more money regardless.

 

[Lays]

I dont think it does stand. The linemates argument was a big factor IMO.

Last year:
Zibanejad: 0.893 PPG
Couturier: 0.911 PPG

Last 3 years:
Zibanejad: 1.020 PPG
Couturier: 0.907 PPG

Zibanejad had 1 insane year with 40 goals that stands out significantly. But even with that factored in, the offensive numbers are still relatively close. Couts gets more points even strength than Zibanejad does (Zib has 24 more ppp in last 3 years), and the gap defensively is much larger as Couturier is literally a Selke winner. I also don't agree that Zibanejad is above average defensively for a top center. He's just normal/average which is not bad. Couturier is just a monster defensively.

Ive made my points. Some are opinions (like how close they are defensively for example). Feel free to reply and ill read it, but i'll agree to disagree at this point if you're not convinced.

2 seasons back, Zibanejad put up 74 points in 80 games while Couturier put up 76 in 82.

Sure they produced the same that year, but Couturier was 2nd in team scoring after Giroux who had 85

That same season Zibanejad led the Rangers in points by 20.

2019/2020

Zibanejad: 75 points in 57 games. 41 goals for a pace of 55+ goals over a full season and led the league in goals per game.

Couturier: 41 points in 45 games.

So Zibanejad blew Couturier’s production out of the water this season in a larger sample size. Zibanejad had as many goals as Couturier had points this season in only 12 more games. Paced for 20+ more goals than Couturier and paced for 34 more points

Couturier’s pace was 74 points. Zibanejad’s was 108 points

2020/2021

Zibanejad is dealing with Covid, slumps hard in the first half of the season yet still finishes with 24 goals and 50 points in 56 games

Couturier puts up 41 in 46. So Zib finishes with a similar PPG again despite not even being at .5 PPG through the first 25 games. You can argue that Couturier has a Selke, but at the same time, Zibanejad dunked on the reigning Selke winner with back to back 6 point performances. Couturier doesn’t know how to neutralize Zibanejad, their is a gap in their defensive games but Zibanejad’s offense over Couturier’s makes up for that gap. Even in Couturier’s Selke season, Zibanejad was the better player unless you think a 20 goal, 34 point offensive difference isn’t enough to overwhelm Couturier’s defensive advantage on Zibanejad

 

[SI]

Comparables are McDavid, Matthews, Tavarez, Seguin, etc. not Couturier

those are his comparables if he only plays against the Flyers for 82 games

 

[Mr Positive]

If Point is the comparable, maybe the later years can bring down the AAV. Point is 25 years old. Mika's next deal starts at 29.

 

[Peat]

Fwiw, Couturier's main 4 forward linemates this season were JvR at 343 minutes, Farabee at 240, Giroux at 200, and Voracek at 147. I don't know how the lines break down there, but Couts got a decent amount of the latter two. And an underpayment too, so here's hoping Zibs scalps the Rangers. Or goes west.

Although I guess if we're talking on ice help, having the Norris winner out there for half your minutes counts for something, right?

 

[NYRKing]

Depends on this year. A 40 goal campaign could really change this conversation.

 

[Lays]

Fwiw, Couturier's main 4 forward linemates this season were JvR at 343 minutes, Farabee at 240, Giroux at 200, and Voracek at 147. I don't know how the lines break down there, but Couts got a decent amount of the latter two. And an underpayment too, so here's hoping Zibs scalps the Rangers. Or goes west.

Although I guess if we're talking on ice help, having the Norris winner out there for half your minutes counts for something, right?

Zibanejad in the year he didn’t have any of Panarin(despite not playing on his line) Fox, etc. still was significantly better than Couturier. Check out their stats from 2018/2019 which was the year Zib broke out before the team added Panarin or Fox. Similar production except Couts got outscored by 10 points (Giroux) while Zibanejad led his team in scoring by 20 points. Let’s also not forget when Zibanejad put up 12 points in 2 games against Couturier’s Flyers

And this year, it’s not like it even mattered considering Zib was ice cold half the season. In Fox’s rookie year where he put up 45 points Zibanejad paced for 55 goals and 108 points, unless now you want to say Zibanejad benefitted from Tony DeAngelo

 

[Everlong]

those are his comparables if he only plays against the Flyers for 82 games

Only true in last season train wreck Flyers. Take out last year and he has 8 points in 26 games and is a -16.

 

[Lays]

those are his comparables if he only plays against the Flyers for 82 games

You mean constantly dunking on Couturier with 6 point games? Funny enough he’s actually better against the Caps, one of the top teams in the league over the last few years. 5 goals against them once in a 6-5 OT win, and multiple multi point games against them.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

8 years 10.5 just to see Berns response oh yeah full nmc too

 

[TheKingPin]

Can he play D?

 

[Kairi Zaide]

He’s really not. Zib has worse linemates and produces significantly more offensively while also being steady defensively. Couturier only produces a little under PPG while playing with Giroux+Voracek. The defensive gap between Couturier and Zibanejad isn’t greater than the offensive gap, and when Couturier has been matched up against Zibanejad, he can’t shut him down. Let’s remember the back to back 6 point games Zib had against the Flyers

I'm gonna post these dreaded charts for fun.

Zibanejad in the year he didn’t have any of Panarin(despite not playing on his line) Fox, etc. still was significantly better than Couturier. Check out their stats from 2018/2019 which was the year Zib broke out before the team added Panarin or Fox. Similar production except Couts got outscored by 10 points (Giroux) while Zibanejad led his team in scoring by 20 points. Let’s also not forget when Zibanejad put up 12 points in 2 games against Couturier’s Flyers

And this year, it’s not like it even mattered considering Zib was ice cold half the season. In Fox’s rookie year where he put up 45 points Zibanejad paced for 55 goals and 108 points, unless now you want to say Zibanejad benefitted from Tony DeAngelo

DeAngelo being an ***hole doesn't make him bad at generating offense/at hockey. He was one of the best d-men in the league in that regard that year.

And the "Let's also not forget when Zibanejad put up 12 points in 2 games against Couturier's Flyers" is absolutely ridiculous. It's a 2 games sample, over which it was almost entirely Hart shitting the bed.

Not to mention that, over the season, Zibanejad's line scored 6 goals and allowed 4 goals against Couturier's line, in 8 games. And this includes the PP. Strictly at 5v5, it was 3 GF, 3 GA, with Couturier's line dominating in high danger opportunities and possession.

In fact, the rangers performed significantly better at 5v5 vs Couturier without Zibanejad than they did with him.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

9-10 per

 

[Kairi Zaide]

NHL fans discussing Zibs talent: "Zib is not as good as any of the games top centers"
NHL fans discussing Zibs next deal: "Zib next contract is going to be like the games top centers"

Never change, HFB.

Here's something crazy. Brace yourself, because you absolutely won't see that coming and will be shocked, I tell you.

...

These two subjects of discussion are completely different. One involves one's personal valuation of a player's impact, one involves discussing GM's valuation of a player. It's like discussing "What should Zibanejad's contract be" (the former subject of discussion you mention) vs "What will Zibanejad's contract be" (the latter).

 

[flyerslducks]

He’s really not. Zib has worse linemates and produces significantly more offensively while also being steady defensively. Couturier only produces a little under PPG while playing with Giroux+Voracek. The defensive gap between Couturier and Zibanejad isn’t greater than the offensive gap, and when Couturier has been matched up against Zibanejad, he can’t shut him down. Let’s remember the back to back 6 point games Zib had against the Flyers

lmao ya lets not compare the two players by 2 games where ziba outscored every flyer on one of the worst flyer years to date (especially goalie wise). Ziba also doesn't have worse linemate..he has panarin who is better offensively than any flyer. Couts barely played with voracek these last two years and oten played without giroux as well. Couts is better but I do expect ziba to get a similar contract to couts only because couts took a home discount (he stated this). I expected couts to go around 9+ but he did the discount as I said.

Couts is better defensively, better faceoff, selke winner, still near a ppg. I definitely think the defensive gap between them is more than you suggest. Its not to say that ziba isn't a great defensive center but he's not going to be a perennial top 5 center defensively like couts can and that is actually a big difference. Offensively, ziba might have more value but not by a lot really and possession-wise couts wins

 

[mm11]

gotta say 8 figures pushing a cool 10 million. Big Apple baby!

 

[coopooter]

High 9s low 10s