Zack Kassian's Future

[King of the ES*]

I was there for that game, rocking my Kassian jersey. I remember that weekend. He had 3 G, 1 A, 3 fights (3 wins) and the shoot out goal winner.

But he needs more time in the AHL.

If he really had 3 goals over a weekend - presuming 2 games played - that would mean that in his other 27 AHL games, he had 5 goals.

Dominance

 

[The Horvatian One]

Other than the partying, I see no evidence that Kassian doesn't work hard. In fact, Canucks even singled him out for working hard this past off-season (and every single person he worked with that off-season praised him as well). As I'm sure he will this current one.

Him not being fit might simply be a case of him needing more time to mature and more time to find his optimal shape. It could also be something completely different. Notable example being Chris Stewart (another bigger guy) who struggled with conditioning and fitness because he was allergic to brown rice which was a regular part of his meals. As a result he couldn't stay in shape and had trouble keeping his energy up.

Don't tell that to King of the ES because you know every 22 year old is expected to dominate the game.

 

[King of the ES*]

Don't tell that to King of the ES because you know every 22 year old is expected to dominate the game.

Call me crazy, but for a guy that many are begging to be put on our top line, 5 goals in 27 AHL games is a pretty scary statistic, and more evidence that a lot of folks are seeing what they want to see in Kassian, rather than what he's actually showing us - which is very little.

The guy was drafted in 2009. Time to start showing something, Zack. Cute moves in shootouts are but a TSN highlight of the night.

 

[Tiranis]

Call me crazy, but for a guy that many are begging to be put on our top line, 5 goals in 27 AHL games is a pretty scary statistic, and more evidence that a lot of folks are seeing what they want to see in Kassian, rather than what he's actually showing us - which is very little.

The guy was drafted in 2009. Time to start showing something, Zack. Cute moves in shootouts are but a TSN highlight of the night.

The thing is, he scored those 3 goals in 3 games. 8 goals in 8 games and 21 games without a goal. Shocking! I expected his stat line of 8 goals in 29 games (25 goal pace) to mean that he scored goals in 16 games and only didn't score in 13...

How does this 'math' thing work again?

 

[Alflives*]

Other than the partying, I see no evidence that Kassian doesn't work hard. In fact, Canucks even singled him out for working hard this past off-season (and every single person he worked with that off-season praised him as well). As I'm sure he will this current one.

The more I read these posts, the more I become concerned that Kassian is a 4th line guy, at best. (And I think he's a uniquely talented player.) If he is committed to working so very hard, and still has not the fitness level to play more than 8 minutes a game, what does that say about his natural ability? Some athletes simply don't have, and will never have, the anaerobic abilities of others. I am holding on to other posters' comments that Kassian is simply immature, and that immaturity is what leads to his lack of (off-ice) training, and poor fitness. If he is already "working hard" in the off season, and this is the best he can do, then that's not good at all.

 

[dave babych returns]

The more I read these posts, the more I become concerned that Kassian is a 4th line guy, at best. (And I think he's a uniquely talented player.) If he is committed to working so very hard, and still has not the fitness level to play more than 8 minutes a game, what does that say about his natural ability? Some athletes simply don't have, and will never have, the anaerobic abilities of others. I am holding on to other posters' comments that Kassian is simply immature, and that immaturity is what leads to his lack of (off-ice) training, and poor fitness. If he is already "working hard" in the off season, and this is the best he can do, then that's not good at all.

I can just see Alflives, staring into the oven at a half-baked cake, thinking to himself this thing's never going to be anything but a doughy mess - why can't it be like those other cakes in the display case?

 

[opendoor]

The thing is, he scored those 3 goals in 3 games. 8 goals in 8 games and 21 games without a goal. Shocking! I expected his stat line of 8 goals in 29 games (25 goal pace) to mean that he scored goals in 16 games and only didn't score in 13...

How does this 'math' thing work again?

If you take out some of Tavares' games he only put up 3 goals in 28 games. Bust...

 

[Alflives*]

I can just see Alflives, staring into the oven at a half-baked cake, thinking to himself this thing's never going to be anything but a doughy mess - why can't it be like those other cakes in the display case?

I come to these boards, as most of us do, to be entertained. Thank you. Even though it is at my expense, that's entertainment at its best.

Oh no! Now Kassian is 'half-baked'! He's using that stuff too! Ugggg

 

[mossey3535]

I think as an organization we're extremely fortunate to have swapped one prospect (CoHo) for whom the sky is the limit for another prospect for whom the sky is the limit. It doesn't happen that often that you get one of those guys, let alone exchange one for another.

But they're both still just that - prospects.

 

[Bankerguy]

People need to realize that you cant compare this year kassian to this year hodgson.

Coho is a year older....if you compare what Kassian did this year to what Coho did last year..thats a better reference.
The reason for this is because when players are 18-22....each year makes a HUGE different because players develop quite a bit during this stretch. A 18 to 19 year old is a way bigger difference than a 26 to 27 year old.

Oh, also, Kassian is a big man. Players like him take longer to develop. I think he'll be a 25/30 guy by the time he's 25 or 26 years old.

 

[NoRaise4Brackett]

Kassian will be a stud. Love how he tried the Bure skate to stick move when Bure was in the building. Sure he flubbed it, but Bure didn't score his until his mid 20's

So Kassian scored 5 goals in 25 some odd games? If that is terrible, then what do we make of Toews' 3 goals in 30 playoff games at his caphit? An overated, ref-riding, regressing whiner that can't except he's been outplayed? Wait, where was I going with this...

 

[BoHorvatFan]

Kassian will be a stud. Love how he tried the Bure skate to stick move when Bure was in the building. Sure he flubbed it, but Bure didn't score his until his mid 20's

So Kassian scored 5 goals in 25 some odd games? If that is terrible, then what do we make of Toews' 3 goals in 30 playoff games at his caphit? An overated, ref-riding, regressing whiner that can't except he's been outplayed? Wait, where was I going with this...

Kassian scored 5 goals in his first 7 games playing with the Sedins while he was in shape after playing lots in the AHL and most players were in training camp mode.

In the next 45 games he scored 2 goals. A feat that could've been accomplished by Darcy Hordichuk.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

All at age twenty two
Ryan Kesler: 82-10-13-23
Daniel Sedin: 79-9-23-32
Henrik Sedin: 82-16-20-36
Todd Bertuzzi: 64-10-13-23

For an organization known in producing late bloomers. People are sure impatient with the twenty two year old.

 

[King of the ES*]

All at age twenty two
Ryan Kesler: 82-10-13-23
Daniel Sedin: 79-9-23-32
Henrik Sedin: 82-16-20-36
Todd Bertuzzi: 64-10-13-23

For an organization known in producing late bloomers. People are sure impatient with the twenty two year old.

Kassian at age 21: 44-4-6-10
Kassian at age 22: 39-7-4-11

The issue is that there's no growth. That's the concern, especially when compared to Hodgson's year-over-year growth. Add the questionable off-ice behaviours and questionable levels of dedication overall, and you're adding more and more risk to the player. Taking the "wait until he's 25" approach is a bit of a cop-out. As we all know, the Bertuzzi's are a lot more rare than the Bernier's and the Pyatt's are, with respect to "young power forwards"...

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Kassian at age 21: 44-4-6-10
Kassian at age 22: 39-7-4-11

The issue is that there's no growth. That's the concern, especially when compared to Hodgson's year-over-year growth. Add the questionable off-ice behaviours and questionable levels of dedication overall, and you're adding more and more risk to the player. Taking the "wait until he's 25" approach is a bit of a cop-out. As we all know, the Bertuzzi's are a lot more rare than the Bernier's and the Pyatt's are, with respect to "young power forwards"...

And we also know power forwards are notoriously slow in development. Kassian's statistics show poorly for the same reasons the Sedins did; they were mired under fourth line minutes than the skillset suggested otherwise. Admittedly, Kassian has demonstrated less than any of the players mentioned, but I do believe over coaching him had a negative effect. Only two years ago Kassian put up near PPG numbers in the AHL.

Hodgson is an unfair comparison. He was left on the top line despite woefully inconsistent play, something that would have seen Kassian benched instantly. Such is why many of us are clamouring for us to take a similar approach to Buffalo with him for next season. Allow him to make mistakes and develop out of them instead of being routinely punished. We will know then what we have and where Kassian's future ends up.

 

[King of the ES*]

And we also know power forwards are notoriously slow in development. Kassian's statistics show poorly for the same reasons the Sedins did; they were mired under fourth line minutes than the skillset suggested otherwise. Admittedly, Kassian has demonstrated less than any of the players mentioned, but I do believe over coaching him had a negative effect. Only two years ago Kassian put up near PPG numbers in the AHL.

Hodgson is an unfair comparison. He was left on the top line despite woefully inconsistent play, something that would have seen Kassian benched instantly. Such is why many of us are clamouring for us to take a similar approach to Buffalo with him for next season. Allow him to make mistakes and develop out of them instead of being routinely punished. We will know then what we have and where Kassian's future ends up.

The Sedin's were not "mired under fourth line minutes". That's just wrong. They were the 2nd line from the minute they showed up, and had 2nd PP duties all the while.

And that's interesting that you reference his PPG AHL year. Are you not concerned that he - again - didn't grow year-over-year in that category? His AHL numbers were better as a 21 year-old than as a 22 year-old. Red flag, IMO.

 

[Bleach Clean]

The Sedin's were not "mired under fourth line minutes". That's just wrong. They were the 2nd line from the minute they showed up, and had 2nd PP duties all the while.

And that's interesting that you reference his PPG AHL year. Are you not concerned that he - again - didn't grow year-over-year in that category? His AHL numbers were better as a 21 year-old than as a 22 year-old. Red flag, IMO.

Red flag that switching teams, going from an offensive club to a defensive one, could impact his numbers? Nope.

You're correct about the Sedins getting force-fed minutes early. Something Kassian wasn't afforded.

 

[Shareefruck]

All at age twenty two
Ryan Kesler: 82-10-13-23
Daniel Sedin: 79-9-23-32
Henrik Sedin: 82-16-20-36
Todd Bertuzzi: 64-10-13-23

For an organization known in producing late bloomers. People are sure impatient with the twenty two year old.

Pretty weak comparisons considering that Bertuzzi and the Sedins are putting up 30-40 point paces there, which is pretty modestly decent offensive support.

The 20 point-pace that Kassian was on is pretty inferior to that, IMO. Kesler's numbers are comparable, but he was already a well-rounded/effective defensive player at that point.

I like Kassian's upside, but this post hurts him rather than defends him, IMO

 

[Bleach Clean]

Pretty weak comparisons considering that Bertuzzi and the Sedins are putting up 30-40 point paces there, which is pretty modestly decent offensive support.

The 20 point-pace that Kassian was on is pretty inferior to that, IMO. Kesler's numbers are comparable, but he was already a well-rounded/effective defensive player at that point.

I like Kassian's upside, but this post hurts him rather than defends him, IMO

I don't think it does anything of the sort. Do we have minutes played as a factor?

Also, of that list, only Bertuzzi is a big PWF, with a slow progression early in his career. He would be the most comparable of all choices. Thus, a PWF given inferior minutes is what we should be evaluating Kassian against. In that light, I don't see him being outside the expected norms.

 

[Dado]

Thus, a PWF given inferior minutes is what we should be evaluating Kassian against. In that light, I don't see him being outside the expected norms.

That's the flip side of survivorship bias. He's given inferior minutes because he's an inferior performer. By excluding the really good young PWFs who have managed to earn non-inferior minutes, it effectively says that he's not that good a young PWF.

Which is true - he's just not that good, and I agree with you that he does fit inside the norms of a 22 year old PWF who is just not all that good - but it does run counter to the local thread subtext.

Anyway, next year is the telling year for him. Either he starts blossoming, or we can tentatively move him into the Steve Bernier column.

 

[Bleach Clean]

That's the flip side of survivorship bias.

Oh I see, it's survivorship bias to defend any trade if backing the returning player. The flipside of that would be to defend Hodgson would it not? As in, highlighting those that have departed.

He's given inferior minutes because he's an inferior performer. By excluding the really good young PWFs who have managed to earn non-inferior minutes, it effectively says that he's not that good a young PWF.

Or it means that I am including the context of team strength and coaching error into the evaluation. It's a mistake to think all PWFs that earn non-inferior minutes do so based on pure merit and perfectly level situations. Not the case.

Wayne Simmonds, for example, played 13:50min in his rookie season and put up 23 points. Kassian was on pace for 23 points over a full season... Does that mean Simmonds wasn't a real good young PWF at the same age? If not, your point draws some serious questions. If yes, I'd love to hear an explanation as to why.

Which is true - he's just not that good, and I agree with you that he does fit inside the norms of a 22 year old PWF who is just not all that good - but it does run counter to the local thread subtext.

Anyway, next year is the telling year for him. Either he starts blossoming, or we can tentatively move him into the Steve Bernier column.

I don't think next year will mean much of anything. Again, Bertuzzi blossomed at 25. Kassian will turn 23 at the mid-point of next year. There is no linear progression to prospects.

Another point about context: VAN has got to be one of the toughest teams to have a prospect winger try and secure a top6 spot. The Sedins play a unique style, one that their winger is expected to adjust to or falter. Kassian has had mixed results playing with them. Then there's Kesler who is a solo player that has been criticized for not utilizing his wingers much at all. Which means, click with the Sedins better than Burrows does, or play in the bottom6. Not the most ideal situation for a young top6 prospect to wade his way through. Something to keep in mind when evaluating Kassian.

He's got to do more, I'm not saying otherwise, but he needs to be afforded more of an opportunity to pass/fail. MG remarked about living with the mistakes of prospects in order to cultivate growth. Kassian is a prime example of what he's referring to.

 

[Fat Tony]

Oh I see, it's survivorship bias to defend any trade if backing the returning player. The flipside of that would be to defend Hodgson would it not? As in, highlighting those that have departed.

Are you intentionally doing this? Or did you actually misunderstand?

 

[NoRaise4Brackett]

Comparing Kassian's production to others' is fine, but drawing conclusions based on that =

Every player develops at their own pace. Just ask Burrows - 9 points in 81 games as a 25 year old.

Every player is in a different position relative to the team they are on. Seguin would have been a 1st-liner as a rookie if Edmonton selected him, and Hall would've been learning NHL defense in the bottom 6 in Boston. Van's top 9 forwards may not all be great, but they are at least decent and have a fair amount of experience - not "easy" to crack the top 9 by any stretch.

Kassian has the hands, the passing ability, and toughness. He just reads the play a little slow at times and needs more confidence. Maybe he never puts it all together, but none of the players he is being compared to has any influence at all on his future or potential.

Anyone that didn't see Kassian's improvements obviously wasn't watching very closely. Yes he was up and down, invisible for stretches, but he did string together a handful of very impressive games to start the season - something he never did last season. Tough to say how much his bad back factored in too, back problems can be very restricting. He was invisible last playoffs, but was more noticeable this time despite no points - only 6 Canuck forwards recorded a point FWIW. Last year he had a few shifts with the twins, this year he was getting more. He was even starting to get some shifts in the playoffs with them, and not just after Burrows was fresh-off the PK.

Consistency and confidence - chances are he finds more of both as he matures, leading to more icetime, then watch his production rise. Nobody knows how far he will go, but I can guarantee that comparisons to other players mean absolutely squat as far as Kassian's future production. When he was 22, nobody predicted that Bertuzzi would reach the heights he did - NOBODY... and who knows what would've been if not for the Moore incident.

If he puts in the work, and just keeps at it, the sky's the limit... not Crosby level or anything, but being a legit top-6 forward is far from out of the question. Labeling him a 4th liner at best... that is just stupid at this point.

 

[CanaFan]

Comparing Kassian's production to others' is fine, but drawing conclusions based on that =

Every player develops at their own pace. Just ask Burrows - 9 points in 81 games as a 25 year old.

Every player is in a different position relative to the team they are on. Seguin would have been a 1st-liner as a rookie if Edmonton selected him, and Hall would've been learning NHL defense in the bottom 6 in Boston. Van's top 9 forwards may not all be great, but they are at least decent and have a fair amount of experience - not "easy" to crack the top 9 by any stretch.

Kassian has the hands, the passing ability, and toughness. He just reads the play a little slow at times and needs more confidence. Maybe he never puts it all together, but none of the players he is being compared to has any influence at all on his future or potential.

Anyone that didn't see Kassian's improvements obviously wasn't watching very closely. Yes he was up and down, invisible for stretches, but he did string together a handful of very impressive games to start the season - something he never did last season. Tough to say how much his bad back factored in too, back problems can be very restricting. He was invisible last playoffs, but was more noticeable this time despite no points - only 6 Canuck forwards recorded a point FWIW. Last year he had a few shifts with the twins, this year he was getting more. He was even starting to get some shifts in the playoffs with them, and not just after Burrows was fresh-off the PK.

Consistency and confidence - chances are he finds more of both as he matures, leading to more icetime, then watch his production rise. Nobody knows how far he will go, but I can guarantee that comparisons to other players mean absolutely squat as far as Kassian's future production. When he was 22, nobody predicted that Bertuzzi would reach the heights he did - NOBODY... and who knows what would've been if not for the Moore incident.

If he puts in the work, and just keeps at it, the sky's the limit... not Crosby level or anything, but being a legit top-6 forward is far from out of the question. Labeling him a 4th liner at best... that is just stupid at this point.

So much sense and grasp of the non-linear way in which so many players develop. Shame it will go completely unheeded by impatient posters who think player progression is like a paint by numbers ...

 

[MS]

So much sense and grasp of the non-linear way in which so many players develop. Shame it will go completely unheeded by impatient posters who think player progression is like a paint by numbers ...

Yup.

The most common development curve for players is one that's fairly flat for their first couple years in the NHL followed by a breakthrough in years 3-4.

I don't care what the numbers are. Kassian looked like a completely different player in the 2013 playoffs as compared to 2012. If he carries that through, next season will see the results start to come.