Subban still has to be exposed. Unless they are going to protect him and expose Rask.
Or they'll trade Subban before the draft. Or they'll send a pick to LV to NOT select Subban. They'll come up with a plan - one which will likely prevent Subban from playing in Vegas.
I get it. Expansion drafts are fun for us "armchair GM's", and it's evident by the amount of threads that have turned up on this site. But at the same time, it's really hard to speculate about potential rosters right now, because (as has been the case with previous drafts) there's going to be SO many trades before the actual draft happens. I see Fleury on people's expansion rosters, but I have a really hard time believing the Penguins would let him go for nothing.
I'll admit I love using the Expansion Tool on the General Fanager website, but I can't even visualize the potential Vegas team until I see the official lists of protected/non-protected players that the teams will submit next June. PS. The time between the Cup being handed out at the draft next year is going to be INSANE!
If he is still with the Ducks come expansion time I see Simon Despres as the most likely guy to be picked up by Vegas. At the moment we have four dmen who would be protected ahead of him (Lindholm, Fowler, Vatanen, Manson). I believe Fowler will be traded at some point before expansion in order to upgrade the forward core and protect Manson, but that still puts Despres as the odd man out. He would have to outshine Manson by a fair margin to become more valuable to the Ducks given the significant difference in salary.
I think you've perfectly laid out the Ducks situation, from what I can tell. As you (and other Duck fans that I know) have suggested, Despres would likely be exposed, so I can easily see the Ducks moving him before the draft, though I don't know what kind of return to expect due to the nature of the trade.
What about this?
- Ducks trade Fowler for a forward.
- Bieksa agrees to waive his NMC for the expansion draft (or gets bought out if he doesn't waive).
- Ducks protect: Lindholm, Manson, Vatanen
- Jackets protect: Jones, Murray, Savard
- Ducks trade Despres to the Jackets for conditional pick / future considerations.
- Vegas has a choice between Despres and Jack Johnson from Jackets roster. The one who doesn't get chosen stays on the 2nd pair in Columbus. If neither is chosen, I'm sure the Jackets could trade JJ going into the last year of his deal.
It's the kind of scenario that I expect to see next June.