Your Rebuild Opinion? Next Move Coming?

[Gniwder]

Please tell me how statistics work then? Because that number is precisely how statistics work lol.

And many of these teams have been doing it multiple years, not just once. I gave plenty of examples a few pages back. Does luck play a role? Of course. Is it all luck? Not even close.

Our late round drafting has been trash for almost two decades.

EDIT: To your point about teams regularly hitting on players in later rounds. I'll leave out the elite drafting teams like CBJ and Washington which already prove my point anyways. But just for fun, here's a few. I went back to 2014, so just one decade.

Anaheim: Luneau, Zellweger, Colangelo, Moore, Dostal, LaCombe, Thrun, Troy Terry, Pettersson, Montour, Steel, Mahura, Kase

Canes: Sebastian Aho, Brett Pesce, Jackson Blake, Foegele, Nedjelkovic, Nicolas Roy, Steven Lorentz, Kotchetkov, Drury, Morgan Geekie, Luostarinen..

Boston: Lohrei, Poitras, Swayman, Studnicka, Carlo, Lauzon, Donato, Heinen, Frederic, Lindgren.

We have been one of the worst drafting teams in the NHL lol. First round under Yzerman has been lights out, and probably the best in the NHL, I'd say, which has saved us. But even average 2nd and later drafting would have us in the playoffs by now easily.

Drafting isn't random luck. Statistics don't work unless each event has an equal chance. Brady Cleveland isn't gonna be a better player just because he was picked in the second round.

It's really odd because you give credit to Stevie for 1st round pick, but don't blame him or his staff for 2nd round faiures.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Drafting isn't random luck. Statistics don't work unless each event has an equal chance. Brady Cleveland isn't gonna be a better player just because he was picked in the second round.

It's really odd because you give credit to Stevie for 1st round pick, but don't blame him or his staff for 2nd round faiures.

What? My entire point and all my posts are blaming him for 2nd round failures. I keep saying we are the worst drafting team in the NHL past the 1st round. I’m not sure what you mean lol.

 

[Gniwder]

What? My entire point and all my posts are blaming him for 2nd round failures. I keep saying we are the worst drafting team in the NHL past the 1st round. I’m not sure what you mean lol.

You were talking about statistics. The original post that started it basically said one of our three second round picks will be in the NHL based on statistics.

It's not how it works, Wallinder, Neiderbach, and Hanas isn't gonna make the NHL just because 2/3 of the second rounders in that draft have played in the NHL.

Sounds to me like you replied to my post without understanding context, especially since we agree that the team needs to pick better.

 

[RedHawkDown]

You were talking about statistics. The original post that started it basically said one of our three second round picks will be in the NHL based on statistics.

It's not how it works, Wallinder, Neiderbach, and Hanas isn't gonna make the NHL just because 2/3 of the second rounders in that draft have played in the NHL.

Sounds to me like you replied to my post without understanding context, especially since we agree that the team needs to pick better.

I said the opposite lol. I don’t think any of them will make it. I think you misunderstood me. I said that the likelihood of all three of them busting in that 2020 round is 2.1%, which it is. So our drafting is so bad that that extremely unlikely outcome came true.

I’m not saying what you think I’m saying. I am using the statistics to show how unlikely it is for our drafting to be as bad as it is lol. Ie it’s not bad luck, it’s that our scouting is very bad after the first

 

[odin1981]

Just going to chime in on Marner a little here. Always watch every Leaf's playoff game ... forever, this year is no different. I feel like if Marner signs here for the outlandish numbers posters are throwing around, he will be hated more than Stephen Weiss.

His regular season numbers are impressive, that cannot be denied.

But ... he's got no shot really, he's not a fast/great skater at all, he's a perimeter player who's always looking to pass instead of shoot. He almost never wins puck battles along the boards ... especially in the playoffs when the battles are 100% tougher than the regular season. He's been practically invisible this whole series VS Florida. Any line Florida throws out against him and Matthews are absolutely owning them. Matthew Knies for me has been the best player on that line.

I'm not a Marner hater ... I want to like him. He makes a dazzling highlight reel play now and then. He scored in OT in the 4 Nations and passed the puck to McDavid for the winning overtime goal, but really struggled for the other 99% of that tournament.

I can't really think of a good former Red Wing comp for him, so I don't know who to compare him to. He's not Datsyuk or Z. Those guys were smaller players who didn't shy away from the board battles.

I really feel like Marner taking up 13 or 14 million of the Wings cap would be disastrous.

I know you all want to point out his "stats", but watch him play. The posters on the Leaf's board have had it with him ... now, either they're all stupid, or biased or jaded (can't blame them for that) or they're more clued in after watching this guy his whole career, compared to Wings posters watching him a few times and looking at the points column.

Wings fans will despise this guy.

Jiri Hudler with better wheels?

 

[HisNoodliness]

I said the opposite lol. I don’t think any of them will make it. I think you misunderstood me. I said that the likelihood of all three of them busting in that 2020 round is 2.1%, which it is. So our drafting is so bad that that extremely unlikely outcome came true.

I’m not saying what you think I’m saying. I am using the statistics to show how unlikely it is for our drafting to be as bad as it is lol. Ie it’s not bad luck, it’s that our scouting is very bad after the first

How are you doing your math? You've stated 1 in 500 and now 2%. Those are different things and both totally wrong. About 30% of NHL second rounders play at least 50 games. That's a 70% fail rate for a 34% chance of three failures on three attempts.

You'd have to assume that at least 70% of second rounders become NHLers for your odds of 3 failures to even come close- that would be .3^3 for about 3%.

We took swings on some high upside players and it seems to have not worked out. I'm okay with that. Our seconds seem to be trending well in general with 2020 being a poor year. We had the unfortunate 1/3 chance come up. I think it's as simple as that.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Leafs fans willing to trade everyone including Matthews! What's a Matthews to Detroit trade look like? Larkin, #13, 2026 first and what else?

 

[saska sault]

Tavares would be a nice addition. Him and Larkin for the next few years would be huge. I think he wants to retire a Leaf and Marner is the most likely sacrificial lamb.. so who knows. It will be interesting to see how it shakes down. With both of them being UFA's and Toronto not having control of their 1st rounders going forward, they cant afford to let both walk. Tavares has his warts but Marner is public enemy #1 in Toronto... can't see him wearing the white & blue again.

If Marner does walk to free agency, hopefully Yzerman sets a hard term & price point... can't afford to give a blank cheque for a guy that as talented as he is, has massive red flags in terms of being a winner. There is too many teams that will be willing to be the highest bidder regardless of future roster implications. He would be instantly the most talented Red Wing but... do you want that at 13,14, 15? That's crazy talk. 12 is hard to swallow but you can cut the fat off the roster and make some cost savings very shortly to make it work.

Also.... shows you how getting that lottery luck, big name prospects doesn't mean there is success coming anytime soon. If and when the Wings make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic that the "core" the Wings have will at least be a pain in the ass to play against. MBN throws bigger hits in the World's than any Toronto player did all series.

 

[brett89]

i think after another failure in the playoffs the maple leafs should think about trading some players. who would be helpful here?

 

[jkutswings]

i think after another failure in the playoffs the maple leafs should think about trading some players. who would be helpful here?

Knies, but I don't see Detroit having the guts to offer sheet him.

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

Knies, but I don't see Detroit having the guts to offer sheet him.

Plus he said he likes Toronto and isn't interested in signing an offer sheet.

 

[RedHawkDown]

How are you doing your math? You've stated 1 in 500 and now 2%. Those are different things and both totally wrong. About 30% of NHL second rounders play at least 50 games. That's a 70% fail rate for a 34% chance of three failures on three attempts.

You'd have to assume that at least 70% of second rounders become NHLers for your odds of 3 failures to even come close- that would be .3^3 for about 3%.

We took swings on some high upside players and it seems to have not worked out. I'm okay with that. Our seconds seem to be trending well in general with 2020 being a poor year. We had the unfortunate 1/3 chance come up. I think it's as simple as that.

Sorry I meant 1 in 50. I was talking about 2020 alone where 22/21 guys made it.

 

[WF19]

I've read a few articles about the Bruins possibly trying to unload Swayman. Probably just click bait but would be fun to land him on Detroit. Would there be any interest and what would it take? Signed for another 7 years so included in the deal would be one of Cossa or Augustine ++

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I've read a few articles about the Bruins possibly trying to unload Swayman. Probably just click bait but would be fun to land him on Detroit. Would there be any interest and what would it take? Signed for another 7 years so included in the deal would be one of Cossa or Augustine ++

If they retain 2-3 million id be interested.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I've read a few articles about the Bruins possibly trying to unload Swayman. Probably just click bait but would be fun to land him on Detroit. Would there be any interest and what would it take? Signed for another 7 years so included in the deal would be one of Cossa or Augustine ++

I want nothing to do with a goalie signed for that long. There are far too few where they will be good over a contract of that length and even the good ones have bad playoffs or seasons. I'd rather spend on defense and quality two way forwards and expect the goalie to provide decent-ish quality.

LA had a solid defense and Kuemper is a Vezina finalist and he still got torched in the playoffs.

 

[norrisnick]

I've read a few articles about the Bruins possibly trying to unload Swayman. Probably just click bait but would be fun to land him on Detroit. Would there be any interest and what would it take? Signed for another 7 years so included in the deal would be one of Cossa or Augustine ++

Statistically he was worse than Talbot, Lyon, and Mrazek last season, while costing more than all three of them combined.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Sorry I meant 1 in 50. I was talking about 2020 alone where 22/21 guys made it.

Ah yes, I suppose if we're talking about a year where 22/31 guys made it, your math works out.

But I'm not sure that that's an accurate description of 2020 especially when we add context for each pick. I just went through the second round and by my count there's Peterka, Khusnutidnov, Evangelista, Kleven, Faber, Lohrei, Cuylle and Goncalves as guys I'm confident are NHLers going forward. Then there's Bordelau and Colangelo that seem to be fairly likely to stick around in limited rolls. That brings us very close to the typical 1/3 rate of making it.

There's another ten guys that have gotten like 1-5 NHL games but none of them look poised to establish themselves. If we're arguing any of these as draft successes, I'd say that we could easily have thrown Wallinder and Hanas into a game just like these guys and suddenly our second round would look great with a 66% hit rate.

Thus I think I'd argue that the effect you're seeing is more of a developmental one. We don't put players onto the big club until we're confident they're NHL ready and likely to stick around. This means longer development times and fewer "cups of coffee." If we look at the list of successful NHLers from this draft, Peterka is the only guy I'm confident we'd have given NHL time to thus far. We'd be letting the NHL ready D rot in the AHL like we did with Ed and AlJo. Evangelista, Cuylle and Goncalves may have gotten limited minutes this year around the time we tried to bring up Mazur and he got hurt.

Did we do a good job in 2020's second round? Absolutely not. I just don't think we did nearly as badly as we may seem to at first glance. Then when you add in that our late rounders from other drafts seem to be trending well and my personal view is that we're a pretty average post first round drafting team.

I'm also annoyed about the way we develop our players. I think they'd be better off having opportunities and exposure to NHL minutes earlier.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I've read a few articles about the Bruins possibly trying to unload Swayman. Probably just click bait but would be fun to land him on Detroit. Would there be any interest and what would it take? Signed for another 7 years so included in the deal would be one of Cossa or Augustine ++

Hell naw.

Swayman was reason number one why Boston had a bad year. He tanked the team after signing an 8 million dollar deal.

 

[DoMakc]

I've read a few articles about the Bruins possibly trying to unload Swayman. Probably just click bait but would be fun to land him on Detroit. Would there be any interest and what would it take? Signed for another 7 years so included in the deal would be one of Cossa or Augustine ++

If Bruins are inclined to sell low, i wouldn't mind a bet on his rebound (Bruins defense injured, missed all pre-season), some money (like Mrazek) also needs to go in their direction. But i just don't see apoint for Bruins to do so - they going to aim for playoffs next year - with Pastrnak, McAvoy, both Lindholms and a better year from Swayman should be realistic.

 

[jkutswings]

Plus he said he likes Toronto and isn't interested in signing an offer sheet.

Fair. There's just nobody else from the Laffs that I'd want.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Ah yes, I suppose if we're talking about a year where 22/31 guys made it, your math works out.

But I'm not sure that that's an accurate description of 2020 especially when we add context for each pick. I just went through the second round and by my count there's Peterka, Khusnutidnov, Evangelista, Kleven, Faber, Lohrei, Cuylle and Goncalves as guys I'm confident are NHLers going forward. Then there's Bordelau and Colangelo that seem to be fairly likely to stick around in limited rolls. That brings us very close to the typical 1/3 rate of making it.

There's another ten guys that have gotten like 1-5 NHL games but none of them look poised to establish themselves. If we're arguing any of these as draft successes, I'd say that we could easily have thrown Wallinder and Hanas into a game just like these guys and suddenly our second round would look great with a 66% hit rate.

Thus I think I'd argue that the effect you're seeing is more of a developmental one. We don't put players onto the big club until we're confident they're NHL ready and likely to stick around. This means longer development times and fewer "cups of coffee." If we look at the list of successful NHLers from this draft, Peterka is the only guy I'm confident we'd have given NHL time to thus far. We'd be letting the NHL ready D rot in the AHL like we did with Ed and AlJo. Evangelista, Cuylle and Goncalves may have gotten limited minutes this year around the time we tried to bring up Mazur and he got hurt.

Did we do a good job in 2020's second round? Absolutely not. I just don't think we did nearly as badly as we may seem to at first glance. Then when you add in that our late rounders from other drafts seem to be trending well and my personal view is that we're a pretty average post first round drafting team.

I'm also annoyed about the way we develop our players. I think they'd be better off having opportunities and exposure to NHL minutes earlier.

I think this is all very fair and good points. I just think we shouldn't be excusing our front office for not drafting anybody of significant impact past the 1st, honestly kind of since the Datsyuk/Zetterberg days. We have to do a lot better there if we want to compete. Hopefully Buchelnikov et al can change the narrative. I have a feeling he's going to blow the doors off.

 

[WF19]

Plus he said he likes Toronto and isn't interested in signing an offer sheet.

Not too many players come out and say they are looking somewhere else and will sign an offer sheet. I would rather have Knies at 9-10 mil than Marner at 13+ not saying i wouldn't pay Marner that either just Knies is younger, stronger and bigger.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Supposedly Byram is on the block - which lines up with what @Petes2424 said earlier in the season, as well as Byram changing agents, looking for a bigger deal than perhaps BUF is willing to commit to him at this point, etc. Given his pedigree, talent, etc. that he is supposed to be a star offensive D who can carry his own Top 4 pair, etc. - but maybe he's better suited playing his natural side with someone like Seider?

I wonder how much he's going to get moved for before it's all said and done.

 

[The Zermanator]

I think our needs are quite simple right now, though acquiring those needs isn't quite as simple. We need a top 6 forward and a top 4 dman, that's it. Get that done and we're in the playoffs next year IMO.

I remember how much the D corps changed seemingly overnight with Seider's arrival. It goes to show how different things can be when everyone is pushed down to a more appropriate position on the depth chart and how that benefits everyone, particularly the players that were being asked to handle responsibilities above their abilities. Chiarot, for example, isn't a bad dman in a vacuum. He'd look just fine on the 3rd pairing. But put him on the 1st pairing and the warts begin to show.

So for this offseason, I want a top 6 forward and top 4 dman added. Those players will push everyone below them down a position on the depth chart. Once the new depth chart is established, we should replace the mediocre veterans at the bottom of the depth chart with prospects. Compher gets replaced by Mazur, Holl gets replaced by Johansson (Anton), etc. The prospects may give similar quality performances as the outgoing vets at the outset, but at least it will be for the purpose of developing their games and improving as players. Compher, Holl, etc are what they are at this point. Mazur, Johansson, etc all have lots of runway to improve still.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I think our needs are quite simple right now, though acquiring those needs isn't quite as simple. We need a top 6 forward and a top 4 dman, that's it. Get that done and we're in the playoffs next year IMO.

We need a lot more than that. Maybe to be Ottawa. I would hope the goal isn't just to make the playoffs. Yzerman said he wants to built a long term contender that will compete to win a Stanley cup. I don't get why everyone is so obsessed with just making the playoffs. I could care less about making the first round.