Your Rebuild Opinion? Next Move Coming?

[Gniwder]

Please tell me how statistics work then? Because that number is precisely how statistics work lol.

And many of these teams have been doing it multiple years, not just once. I gave plenty of examples a few pages back. Does luck play a role? Of course. Is it all luck? Not even close.

Our late round drafting has been trash for almost two decades.

EDIT: To your point about teams regularly hitting on players in later rounds. I'll leave out the elite drafting teams like CBJ and Washington which already prove my point anyways. But just for fun, here's a few. I went back to 2014, so just one decade.

Anaheim: Luneau, Zellweger, Colangelo, Moore, Dostal, LaCombe, Thrun, Troy Terry, Pettersson, Montour, Steel, Mahura, Kase

Canes: Sebastian Aho, Brett Pesce, Jackson Blake, Foegele, Nedjelkovic, Nicolas Roy, Steven Lorentz, Kotchetkov, Drury, Morgan Geekie, Luostarinen..

Boston: Lohrei, Poitras, Swayman, Studnicka, Carlo, Lauzon, Donato, Heinen, Frederic, Lindgren.

We have been one of the worst drafting teams in the NHL lol. First round under Yzerman has been lights out, and probably the best in the NHL, I'd say, which has saved us. But even average 2nd and later drafting would have us in the playoffs by now easily.

Drafting isn't random luck. Statistics don't work unless each event has an equal chance. Brady Cleveland isn't gonna be a better player just because he was picked in the second round.

It's really odd because you give credit to Stevie for 1st round pick, but don't blame him or his staff for 2nd round faiures.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Drafting isn't random luck. Statistics don't work unless each event has an equal chance. Brady Cleveland isn't gonna be a better player just because he was picked in the second round.

It's really odd because you give credit to Stevie for 1st round pick, but don't blame him or his staff for 2nd round faiures.

What? My entire point and all my posts are blaming him for 2nd round failures. I keep saying we are the worst drafting team in the NHL past the 1st round. I’m not sure what you mean lol.

 

[Gniwder]

What? My entire point and all my posts are blaming him for 2nd round failures. I keep saying we are the worst drafting team in the NHL past the 1st round. I’m not sure what you mean lol.

You were talking about statistics. The original post that started it basically said one of our three second round picks will be in the NHL based on statistics.

It's not how it works, Wallinder, Neiderbach, and Hanas isn't gonna make the NHL just because 2/3 of the second rounders in that draft have played in the NHL.

Sounds to me like you replied to my post without understanding context, especially since we agree that the team needs to pick better.

 

[RedHawkDown]

You were talking about statistics. The original post that started it basically said one of our three second round picks will be in the NHL based on statistics.

It's not how it works, Wallinder, Neiderbach, and Hanas isn't gonna make the NHL just because 2/3 of the second rounders in that draft have played in the NHL.

Sounds to me like you replied to my post without understanding context, especially since we agree that the team needs to pick better.

I said the opposite lol. I don’t think any of them will make it. I think you misunderstood me. I said that the likelihood of all three of them busting in that 2020 round is 2.1%, which it is. So our drafting is so bad that that extremely unlikely outcome came true.

I’m not saying what you think I’m saying. I am using the statistics to show how unlikely it is for our drafting to be as bad as it is lol. Ie it’s not bad luck, it’s that our scouting is very bad after the first

 

[odin1981]

Just going to chime in on Marner a little here. Always watch every Leaf's playoff game ... forever, this year is no different. I feel like if Marner signs here for the outlandish numbers posters are throwing around, he will be hated more than Stephen Weiss.

His regular season numbers are impressive, that cannot be denied.

But ... he's got no shot really, he's not a fast/great skater at all, he's a perimeter player who's always looking to pass instead of shoot. He almost never wins puck battles along the boards ... especially in the playoffs when the battles are 100% tougher than the regular season. He's been practically invisible this whole series VS Florida. Any line Florida throws out against him and Matthews are absolutely owning them. Matthew Knies for me has been the best player on that line.

I'm not a Marner hater ... I want to like him. He makes a dazzling highlight reel play now and then. He scored in OT in the 4 Nations and passed the puck to McDavid for the winning overtime goal, but really struggled for the other 99% of that tournament.

I can't really think of a good former Red Wing comp for him, so I don't know who to compare him to. He's not Datsyuk or Z. Those guys were smaller players who didn't shy away from the board battles.

I really feel like Marner taking up 13 or 14 million of the Wings cap would be disastrous.

I know you all want to point out his "stats", but watch him play. The posters on the Leaf's board have had it with him ... now, either they're all stupid, or biased or jaded (can't blame them for that) or they're more clued in after watching this guy his whole career, compared to Wings posters watching him a few times and looking at the points column.

Wings fans will despise this guy.

Jiri Hudler with better wheels?

 

[HisNoodliness]

I said the opposite lol. I don’t think any of them will make it. I think you misunderstood me. I said that the likelihood of all three of them busting in that 2020 round is 2.1%, which it is. So our drafting is so bad that that extremely unlikely outcome came true.

I’m not saying what you think I’m saying. I am using the statistics to show how unlikely it is for our drafting to be as bad as it is lol. Ie it’s not bad luck, it’s that our scouting is very bad after the first

How are you doing your math? You've stated 1 in 500 and now 2%. Those are different things and both totally wrong. About 30% of NHL second rounders play at least 50 games. That's a 70% fail rate for a 34% chance of three failures on three attempts.

You'd have to assume that at least 70% of second rounders become NHLers for your odds of 3 failures to even come close- that would be .3^3 for about 3%.

We took swings on some high upside players and it seems to have not worked out. I'm okay with that. Our seconds seem to be trending well in general with 2020 being a poor year. We had the unfortunate 1/3 chance come up. I think it's as simple as that.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Leafs fans willing to trade everyone including Matthews! What's a Matthews to Detroit trade look like? Larkin, #13, 2026 first and what else?

 

[saska sault]

Tavares would be a nice addition. Him and Larkin for the next few years would be huge. I think he wants to retire a Leaf and Marner is the most likely sacrificial lamb.. so who knows. It will be interesting to see how it shakes down. With both of them being UFA's and Toronto not having control of their 1st rounders going forward, they cant afford to let both walk. Tavares has his warts but Marner is public enemy #1 in Toronto... can't see him wearing the white & blue again.

If Marner does walk to free agency, hopefully Yzerman sets a hard term & price point... can't afford to give a blank cheque for a guy that as talented as he is, has massive red flags in terms of being a winner. There is too many teams that will be willing to be the highest bidder regardless of future roster implications. He would be instantly the most talented Red Wing but... do you want that at 13,14, 15? That's crazy talk. 12 is hard to swallow but you can cut the fat off the roster and make some cost savings very shortly to make it work.

Also.... shows you how getting that lottery luck, big name prospects doesn't mean there is success coming anytime soon. If and when the Wings make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic that the "core" the Wings have will at least be a pain in the ass to play against. MBN throws bigger hits in the World's than any Toronto player did all series.