Your Preferred Stat For Gauging Team Strength?

[DitchMarner]

I think it's best to look at a number of different things, but if you had to base your opinion on a team's relative strength and prediction for how well the team will do, what would be your preferred metric?

Would it just be points or points percentage? Corsi or corsi close? Goals percentage or expected goals percentage at five on five?

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[a mangy Meowth]

+ / - is my go-to

 

[MNRube]

I think goal differential and team SV % can tell you a lot. If they don’t have an elite goalie and are saving .920 as a team, probably not sustainable

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Goal differential. And then the expected goal differential and fancy stats although they can be misleading if you have garbage goaltending.

 

[DitchMarner]

I think the points metric is the worst to use, especially over smaller samples.

Maybe I'm outdated, but I still value corsi and corsi close. When I look at how teams rank in terms of corsi close, the teams at the bottom are usually really crappy teams. I definitely don't want to see my team in the bottom 12 or so...

If a "good team" is in the bottom dozen, that can be ominous, although there are cases where good goaltending, strong special teams and/or quick-strike offense can keep that team high in the standings all year. The Rangers have been a bad corsi close team all season (or for most of it). That's caught up with them. I wonder if the same with happen to WPG eventually.

If your team is in the middle of the pack, that's not necessarily too worrisome. Certain teams (CAR, FLA, EDM) tend to be near the top year after year. I guess that's a reflection of team strength as well as style of play.


I used to not care much about expected goals, but now I value the stat more. It can help identify if a team is benefitting greatly from strong goaltending.

 

[DitchMarner]

+ / - is my go-to

I think goal differential and team SV % can tell you a lot. If they don’t have an elite goalie and are saving .920 as a team, probably not sustainable

Goal differential. And then the expected goal differential and fancy stats although they can be misleading if you have garbage goaltending.

Can't believe I forgot to include goal differential. That's a stat I highly value as well.

 

[Mr. Met]

I typically look at the strongest and weakest player on each roster and rank the teams.

For example, the New York Rangers:

Matt Rempe - very strong, maybe the strongest
Filip Chytil - weak, always hurt

 

[TrufleShufle]

I usually look through all the stats and take detailed notes comparing teams across the stats, I combine that with league averages across the past 10 years and try to account for any anomalies.

Then I just pick whatever random stat makes the Devils look good and Rangers bad and it becomes the best one.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I think the points metric is the worst to use, especially over smaller samples.

Maybe I'm outdated, but I still value corsi and corsi close. When I look at how teams rank in terms of corsi close, the teams at the bottom are usually really crappy teams. I definitely don't want to see my team in the bottom 12 or so...

View attachment 952893

If a "good team" is in the bottom dozen, that can be ominous, although there are cases where good goaltending, strong special teams and/or quick-strike offense can keep that team high in the standings all year. The Rangers have been a bad corsi close team all season (or for most of it). That's caught up with them. I wonder if the same with happen to WPG eventually.

If your team is in the middle of the pack, that's not necessarily too worrisome. Certain teams (CAR, FLA, EDM) tend to be near the top year after year. I guess that's a reflection of team strength as well as style of play.


I used to not care much about expected goals, but now I value the stat more. It can help identify if a team is benefitting greatly from strong goaltending.

Well, the points stat is the one they use to determine who gets into the playoffs, so it is the most important.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I think it's best to look at a number of different things, but if you had to base your opinion on a team's relative strength and prediction for how well the team will do, what would be your preferred metric?

Would it just be points or points percentage? Corsi or corsi close? Goals percentage or expected goals percentage at five on five?

I start with goals for and against. It may sound simple. But for me that is a good starting point

 

[DitchMarner]

Well, the points stat is the one they use to determine who gets into the playoffs, so it is the most important.

It's important because the standings are based on it, but I don't think it is the best indicator of team strength.

Sometimes teams that are mediocre five on five get a high seed because of goaltending + PDO. If I'm predicting playoff brackets, I'm not going to pick a team that had a +15 goal differential against a team that had a +40 goal differential and much better five on five results just because the former team had two more points in the standings.

 

[BrockLobster]

Goal diff

 

[Dotter]

eyes.

 

[AlienWorkShop]

lbs per player

 

[Gjman2019]

HDCF%

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Even strength expected goals for % (xGF%). Teams that control play at even strength tend to be your winning teams over the course of a season. It can also show if you a team is winning the “right” way or winning based on a goaltender/shooting percentage heater or on the back of special teams — none of the latter are normally sustainable or a foundation for a legitimate Cup contender.

Also, HDSF% — if you are getting more high danger scoring chances than your opponent on a regular basis you’re probably a pretty good team.

 

[Voodoo Child]

The ones people say - goal differential, team save%, PDO.

I'll throw PK in the mix, especially playoff PK. Lots of shitty or pretender teams have had a good PP, very few winners have a bad PK. It's obviously not perfect but there's some trends.

First bracket regular season, second postseason.

2023-24: Florida (6th) (2nd)
2022-23: Vegas (19th) (12th)
2021-22: Colorado (15th) (7th)
2020-21: Tampa (4th) (4th)
2019-20: Tampa (14th) (5th)

Average: (12th) and (6th).

Good teams know how to lock it down and keep their eye on the tiger when the games get tight.

 

[LionsHeart]

Goal differential and the good old fashion eye test.

 

[JoVel]

Depends on what agenda I'm trying to push.

 

[Thallis]

Expected Goals, while broken and worse on public models than Clearsight Analytics or Sportlogiq, has been pretty consistently shown to be the most reliable predictor of future success within a season. I generally start with that and continue from there

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Rizz/f %

 

[Roo]

Goal differential

 

[HockeyVirus]

Depends on the stat my team is doing well in at that time

 

[Anemia]

Offensive zone short handed face-off percentage I find a very underrated stat.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Wins