LEAFANFORLIFE23
Registered User
- Jun 17, 2010
- 46,884
- 15,548
Great question. It will likely end up with some great content and also a lot of people justifying why they chose their team as one of the top five in five years.
I think you have to take two lenses to this.
Having prefaced with this, her is my quick list but I am sure this will evolve when I read more in depth analysis from others.
- One is obviously the current young player and prospect roster. Which teams have the best group of players that will be in their primes five years from now.
- The other is cap and economics, not only which teams will have bad contracts holding them back in five years but also who will have spending power. As the cap continues to grow and perhaps exponentially we will see more of a gap between cap teams and budget teams. The Covid flat cap era leveled that paying field. We may go back to a dynamic where the top third of the league's spenders are spending $20M more per year than the bottom third.
TOP FIVE
Vancouver. Cap team that has some nice young pieces. Hughes, Demko, and Petterson will still be in their primes in key positions.
Edmonton. Same as Vancouver. They will spend to the cap and still have McDavid and Draisatl in the tale end of primes. Bouchard looks like something to build around. If Skinner has a decent career these guys will continue to contend.
Toronto. The flat cap hurt the Leafs more than most. They will still have Matthews, Nylander and Marner if they want him. They will have money to spend and some decent young support pieces (strong young goalie prospects).
Buffalo. Probably not a cap team and that will hurt them. Lots of good young D and a couple of young G that could be franchise guys. Lots of F depth hitting prime too.
Rangers. Will always outspend others. Possibly the best goalie in the league for the next five years. Some good young D and F.
LATE EDIT. Chicago could be in here too. It's all about Bedard being the next one. They will have budget and supporting pieces.
BOTTOM FIVE
Ottawa. Not a cap team. They have locked in most of their roster for the next five years and it doesn't seem to have the high end talent to lift them. They will continue to struggle to attract and retain FA without overpay. It's a tough position for a budget team.
Montreal. Similar to Ottawa though they can spend a bit more. What pieces do they have now that are going to lifr then out. Finishing too many seasons where they wer bad, but not bad enough to pick at the top of strong drafts will hurt them.
Tampa. How do they avoid this. Vasilevsky, Hedman, Point will all be old and unless they do a fire sale of these vets they have no way to restock the shelves. No picks or prospects and they seem to be trying to extend the current window rather than building for the next one.
Pittsburgh. See Tampa but happening sooner.
Calgary. Just starting a rebuild now. Can they attract FA or will they have to build through the draft. They have picks but no real young pieces yet. They have to hit on a lot of picks and be patient with their development. Hard to do.
It's tough to say with Toronto, they could be top 5 in 5 years, it all depends on if Woll turns into the goalie he's shown flashes of being, to do that he's got to get his shit together and stay healthy.
It also depends on if Knies and continue to develop the way they have been, theu both look like they are trending towards being impact players.
Will they keep Robertson and will he be the 25 goal scorer that he looked like he could be last year?
And finally will Treliving continue to draft in the 1st round? I fully anticipate that 2025 Florida 2nd is gone It's only a matter of where and for who? My guess? Chicago and in a deal that lands Taylor Hall.
But since Treliving has gotten here he's drafted in the 1st round both drafts so he's clearly looking to restock the shelves somewhat.
But at the same time the Leafs are in win now mode, 90% or more of the moves they make over the next 4 years will be win now moves.
Even if let's say Cowan makes the team this year and Treliving traded Jarnkrok for a pick, in all likelihood that pick would be deadline capital