Your own 'Future Power Rankings'

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Great question. It will likely end up with some great content and also a lot of people justifying why they chose their team as one of the top five in five years.

I think you have to take two lenses to this.

• One is obviously the current young player and prospect roster. Which teams have the best group of players that will be in their primes five years from now.
• The other is cap and economics, not only which teams will have bad contracts holding them back in five years but also who will have spending power. As the cap continues to grow and perhaps exponentially we will see more of a gap between cap teams and budget teams. The Covid flat cap era leveled that paying field. We may go back to a dynamic where the top third of the league's spenders are spending $20M more per year than the bottom third.

Having prefaced with this, her is my quick list but I am sure this will evolve when I read more in depth analysis from others.

TOP FIVE

Vancouver. Cap team that has some nice young pieces. Hughes, Demko, and Petterson will still be in their primes in key positions.

Edmonton. Same as Vancouver. They will spend to the cap and still have McDavid and Draisatl in the tale end of primes. Bouchard looks like something to build around. If Skinner has a decent career these guys will continue to contend.

Toronto. The flat cap hurt the Leafs more than most. They will still have Matthews, Nylander and Marner if they want him. They will have money to spend and some decent young support pieces (strong young goalie prospects).

Buffalo. Probably not a cap team and that will hurt them. Lots of good young D and a couple of young G that could be franchise guys. Lots of F depth hitting prime too.

Rangers. Will always outspend others. Possibly the best goalie in the league for the next five years. Some good young D and F.

LATE EDIT. Chicago could be in here too. It's all about Bedard being the next one. They will have budget and supporting pieces.

BOTTOM FIVE

Ottawa. Not a cap team. They have locked in most of their roster for the next five years and it doesn't seem to have the high end talent to lift them. They will continue to struggle to attract and retain FA without overpay. It's a tough position for a budget team.

Montreal. Similar to Ottawa though they can spend a bit more. What pieces do they have now that are going to lifr then out. Finishing too many seasons where they wer bad, but not bad enough to pick at the top of strong drafts will hurt them.

Tampa. How do they avoid this. Vasilevsky, Hedman, Point will all be old and unless they do a fire sale of these vets they have no way to restock the shelves. No picks or prospects and they seem to be trying to extend the current window rather than building for the next one.

Pittsburgh. See Tampa but happening sooner.

Calgary. Just starting a rebuild now. Can they attract FA or will they have to build through the draft. They have picks but no real young pieces yet. They have to hit on a lot of picks and be patient with their development. Hard to do.

It's tough to say with Toronto, they could be top 5 in 5 years, it all depends on if Woll turns into the goalie he's shown flashes of being, to do that he's got to get his shit together and stay healthy.

It also depends on if Knies and continue to develop the way they have been, theu both look like they are trending towards being impact players.

Will they keep Robertson and will he be the 25 goal scorer that he looked like he could be last year?

And finally will Treliving continue to draft in the 1st round? I fully anticipate that 2025 Florida 2nd is gone It's only a matter of where and for who? My guess? Chicago and in a deal that lands Taylor Hall.

But since Treliving has gotten here he's drafted in the 1st round both drafts so he's clearly looking to restock the shelves somewhat.

But at the same time the Leafs are in win now mode, 90% or more of the moves they make over the next 4 years will be win now moves.

Even if let's say Cowan makes the team this year and Treliving traded Jarnkrok for a pick, in all likelihood that pick would be deadline capital

 

[The Panther]

Vancouver seems a reasonably good bet to be competitive the next few years. (Not sure about 5 years from now, but.... .) I do think their regular season record will regress this season, which is normal (and they've lost that tough guy on defence, which makes them easier to play against), but they'll re-group and be strong for a few years. Solid talent-base upfront, and a still-young Norris winner on D, plus a great goalie, is a good combination.

I could see Philly maybe, and Jersey, being strong during the next 5 years. Philly not next season, but starting two/three years from now.

Buffalo, too.., in theory (if the old-man coach Ruff strategy works). But they've been so bad for so long now, it starts to become hard to imagine them actually making the playoffs. Hope we see it.

I'm not as confident on my Oilers being strong four or five years from now as some of you are. I think they're going to be good this season (probably better than Van) and make another good push for a Cup Finals' appearance. But then if we skip ahead just over one year to October 2025: McDavid (28.) / Draisaitl (30) / Hyman (33) / RNH (32) / Ekholm (35) / Kane (34) / Nurse (30) / J. Skinner (33)

Of the core players, only S. Skinner and Bouchard will be very much in their primes with multiple prime years still left. And this is just one year into this 5-year window we're talking about. It's a very Ken Holland-team of good, old players signed to long-term deals. Success will depend on how management treats veterans from now (and I do think Jeff Jackson is the real GM now, with Bowman as his underling).


I don't follow the Leafs enough to have a strong opinion about it, but it seems to me that:
(a) keeping the same 4-man forward core is a kind of insanity, and
(b) their defence is getting old and porous.
But I'm not aware enough to know how the prospect pool looks for the next few years. My guess is that the Leafs will regress and be around League-average during the next five years.

It would be nice if Ottawa would suddenly be good again.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Actually Florida's prospects are underrated I think. Samoskevich scored 20 goals in the AHL last season. Jack Devine had the 3rd most goals in the NCAA last season behind only Celebrini and Cutter Gauthier, and was in the Hobey Baker voting. Gracyn Sawchyn is a good prospect that was over ppg in the WHL last season as a 18-19 year old. Linus Eriksson is a solid prospect, 2nd rounder this year that plays a lot like Lundell. Sandis Vilmanis came on later in the season, was 3rd in OHL playoff scoring. He has size and plays a gritty game, there is modest hope that he can become a middle 6 in a few years. Josh Davies had 36 goals in 55 games in the WHL last season, and is very tough too. Not that big, but is sturdily built and plays way bigger than his size. There's also Justin Sourdif, Ryan McAllister, Mike Benning, Marek Alscher. Kirill Gerasimyuk is an underrated goalie prospect I think. He has some of the best numbers in the MHL over the last several years. He'll be in the VHL next year. There's a good chance you'll be hearing a lot more about him within the next 2-3 years. Plus there's Knight who if he isn't traded, still has loads of potential. He'll probably be in the NHL again this season so we'll see.

Florida's top 6 is so good, and I think they'll age well too, except for probably Bennett. Forsling should also age well. If they can bring a few solid kids in to compliment them, I think they can hang around as contenders for several years.

Great numbers for Devine but you don't hear him discussed much among the top forwards. Take some pause because of where he was drafted and him never representing USA at the World Juniors. Is he one of those players who are suited for college hockey but his game doesn't translate at the pro level?

 

[coooldude]

I'd almost feel more confident in the 6-10 year window than 5 years, but here goes:

Good:
Avs (although not for much longer...)
Ducks (if they can manage through this mushy part of the rebuild)
Stars (good drafting, good management)
Devils (I think their core develops, they build around them)
Canadiens (although I think highest risk of not quite making it to the top 5)

Hon mention:
Detroit, if they become the Preds of the East by building a deep team without really top-end star power, but more likely to be top 6-10.
Sabres (they have all the talent but can they manage the franchise out of this typical malaise?)
Sharks (2 more years and I think they replace the Avs)
Canucks (a few years at the top 5 in the next 4 years, but I'm not sure they have the core beyond that)
Hawks (I'm biased but I don't see the prospects to build an amazing core, but they'll be dangerous)

Bad:
Pittsburgh (it's gonna be a big crater)
Washington (not enough prospect pipeline to make up for the loss at the top of the roster; probably a few years in denial before blowing it up)
TBL (either they retool amazingly, or they stay in denial for 3-4 years and collapse in about 5)
Oilers (maybe they can hold on 5 more years, but I think the window is about the next 3-4)
Kings (this is just a gut sense; they could be in the mushy middle but def doesn't feel like they're building a winner)

Hon. mention:
Calgary (maybe stuck in a perpetual suck cycle)
VGK (a rival fan can dream)
Jets (I don't know, it just feels paper thin up there, don't @ me)

 

[Sypher04]

Leafs won’t be top 5 in 5 years, they’re starting to drop in the east.

I don’t think the Leafs will be top 5 probably 5 years out from now either, but in what way have they started to drop in the East?

lol, at the cap hurt the leafs the most. It hurt all cap teams the same.

That is 100% not true.

Teams who had signed more big money/long term contracts immediately preceding the cap freeze were certainly more significantly impacted by it.

Teams with cores locked in long before were better positioned to compete under a flat cap.

I am not prepared to say the Leafs were the most impacted. That is pretty hard to quantify, but they were certainly up there.

Over the course of Matthews’ entire 5 year contract extension the cap only rose 2M. That’s a long way off of the projection that would have been made when agreeing to the terms the team did (probably 8-10M) Not unique to him, but it does underscore what I’m talking about. Then compound that by adding another nearly 30M of similarly recent signings of JT, Marner and Willy which is pretty unique to the Leafs.

I don’t see this as an excuse for their troubles, they could have traded out of a contract to make cap flexibility and they chose not to. But it’s still true.

 

[dgibb10]

#1 No they aren't starting to drop in the east, I don't know where you get this idea but It's not based in reality, they have an overall stronger roster for this coming season than they did last season.

#2 how did it not hurt them the most given their cap structure? You can say that's Dubas's fault and that's partly true, although I don't think he can be faulted for not anticipating the world would stop, I blame Dubas for A LOT of things that's not one of them.

Regardless because of their cap structure covid f***ed the Leafs more than any other NHL team.

The leafs chose to not buy full term on Marner, Matthews, and Nylander, completely negating this "covid f***ed the leafs" BS

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

Top 5:
Edmonton
Florida
Carolina
New York Rangers
Dallas

Bottom 5:
Columbus
Seattle
Montreal
Pittsburgh
Washington

 

[Mike Liut]

The Leafs helped ensure the Blues wouldn't be amongst the 5 worst in 5 years by giving up the picks that turned into Otto Stenberg-25th in '23, Juraj Pekarcik-76th in '23 and Lukas Fischer-56th in '24 and that's just one trade haul from the ROR/Acciari return. Going back over the last 5 drafts since winning the 2019 Stanley Cup they have 8 1st round drafted players (Neighbours, Bolduc, Dean, Snuggerud, Dvorsky, Stenberg, Lindstein and Jiricek). That doesn't sound like a pool that's going to result in a 2nd worst finish in 5 years time, in fact quite the opposite. That looks like a solid foundation to rebuild the current roster with. Have you looked at the Blues draft record? Particularly in the 1st? Because they hit at a higher rate than the average bear and had 3 extra 1st's to work with over that span. You have them right next to Pittsburgh whose pool really is barren. Apples and oranges my man, apples and oranges.

Damn straight

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

That thread is preoccupied with prospect D-men. The Devils are not going to have the best D in the league if neither of Nemec or L Hughes reach the level of Heiskanen, Makar, Q Hughes... All of those guys are going to still be 30 and under in 5 years.



A top 5 team is going to need a good top pair of D-men, and the Sharks might not have any. Dickinson looks like a 2/3 to me.



Who is their top pair? It looks like they just have a lot of second line forwards on the way and a few middling D.

Thats.. you know, the entire point of projecting five years. you named Nemec and Hughes then a bunch of guys on separate teams - NJ has two and the best chance as any to have a great defense, not even including the 10th overall (yet ranked 5th-7th for 2024) prospect on the backend as well

Both logged 20+ minutes (and Luke produced) at 19 and 20 respectively; the odds are pretty good one ends up at that level, with the other probably not far behind

Its looking like NJ will have two elite defenseman on separate pairs and handedness in the not-so-distant future

 

[majormajor]

Both logged 20+ minutes (and Luke produced) at 19 and 20 respectively; the odds are pretty good one ends up at that level, with the other probably not far behind

Its looking like NJ will have two elite defenseman on separate pairs and handedness in the not-so-distant future

I think it's likely that at least one of Nemec and L Hughes ends up as an All Star D-man.

But you're saying Norris / Norris candidate level? Like Makar, Heiskanen, and Q Hughes?

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

I think it's likely that at least one of Nemec and L Hughes ends up as an All Star D-man.

But you're saying Norris / Norris candidate level? Like Makar, Heiskanen, and Q Hughes?

No im saying one will likely end up Norris level while the other is an All Star dman (or better, its two top-5 picks)

 

[SimpleJack]

How can anyone not have the Hawks top 5???

They just drafted 8 1st round picks over the last 3 years/drafts(an NHL record for a 3 year span).

They have multiple 1sts and 2nds again next year, and again the year after that….and are only beginning to put together the foundation of their prospect pool which, headlined by Bedard(a legit generational cornerstone), is already deep and well balanced.

This would all be enough to put them in the discussion…but what puts them over the top are the added factors of them being a major market original 6 franchise that will attract big name FAs….and all the $$/cap space they are going to have at their disposal.

They’re gonna have to REALLY mess things up badly to not wind up being a legit top tier contender 5 years from now. There’s just too much going in their favor, starting and ending with their insane amount of draft capital and the sheer quantity of 1st/2nd/3rd round picks accumulated from 2021/22-2026/27.

 

[Heldig]

Give us your top, and bottom 5 teams in 5 years' time.

5 years is too long to project. Injuries. Trades. Players aging out suddenly. A draft lottery win or 2....

I think emerging teams to watch the next few seasons include:

New Jersey (last year was an aberration)
Montreal
LA
Utah

A few teams that may fall out of playoff contention and stay down

Winnipeg
Washington
Pittsburgh

 

[Pavels Dog]

How can anyone not have the Hawks top 5???

They just drafted 8 1st round picks over the last 3 years/drafts(an NHL record for a 3 year span).

They have multiple 1sts and 2nds again next year, and again the year after that….and are only beginning to put together the foundation of their prospect pool which, headlined by Bedard(a legit generational cornerstone), is already deep and well balanced.

This would all be enough to put them in the discussion…but what puts them over the top are the added factors of them being a major market original 6 franchise that will attract big name FAs….and all the $$/cap space they are going to have at their disposal.

They’re gonna have to REALLY mess things up badly to not wind up being a legit top tier contender 5 years from now. There’s just too much going in their favor, starting and ending with their insane amount of draft capital and the sheer quantity of 1st/2nd/3rd round picks accumulated from 2021/22-2026/27.

They could get there for sure, but don't underestimate how long player development can take. Look at how Montreal fans are hoping Kirby Dach breaks out in 24-25, his d+6. Even a stellar draft pick like Victor Hedman didn't truly break out until his d+5 or so, which looks like the same story as a Quinton Byfield.

So just the simple fact that it often takes time could work against them. That doesn't even take into account what happens if just 1 or 2 of their most important picks so far don't actually pan out to the extent they hope, if they don't find a #1 goalie, the right coach etc etc.

I don't think there's a top 5, probably not a top 10, contender for 24-25 that has the majority of their core pieces coming out of the last ~5-6 years of drafting. Even a team like the Devils that are viewed as very young and have hit big in multiple drafts are still trying to reach contention; they drafted Hischier 7 years ago, Bratt 8 years ago, and added Meier from 9 years ago and Markström from 16 years ago.

 

[slybel]

I hope this thread doesn't age well...

 

[Dread Clawz]

Great numbers for Devine but you don't hear him discussed much among the top forwards. Take some pause because of where he was drafted and him never representing USA at the World Juniors. Is he one of those players who are suited for college hockey but his game doesn't translate at the pro level?

No actually I think his game would translate well to the next level, he likes to get to the net and he doesn't mind getting greasy, he's not exactly small , but plays bigger than his size. He has a great shot and can make plays too.

His skating was an issue a few years ago, that's why he fell to the 7th round despite being ranked as a 2nd/3rd rounder in some places. Why he likely lost Team USA spots to other kids coming up.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

5 years is too long to project. Injuries. Trades. Players aging out suddenly. A draft lottery win or 2....

I think emerging teams to watch the next few seasons include:

New Jersey (last year was an aberration)
Montreal
LA
Utah

A few teams that may fall out of playoff contention and stay down

Winnipeg
Washington
Pittsburgh

As someone who has watched almost every Devils game since the Covid break, I can say with some certainty the aberration was the 2022-23 season and not this past one. The Devils took some teams by surprise two years ago then met the only playoff team softer than they were in the first round of the playoffs.

The addition of Pesce was a nice move but there is still no true defending defenseman on the team; coupled with a group of forwards who with a couple of notable exceptions have no interest in two-way hockey. Jacob Markstrom is going to face the same type of difficulties that Blackwood, Vanacek and the other half dozen goalies faced in recent years.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

TOP 5:

DALLAS -- they are set for a very long time thanks to the 2017 and 2021 drafts. Tax free state. Wyatt Johnston will be one of the best C's in the league leading the way
ANAHEIM -- too much high-end talent there not to eventually become a force in the league
NEW JERSEY -- I see them as today's Carolina, but with more top-end talent, more playoff success
UTAH -- lots of great pieces, big and skilled team will be led by high-end offense
DETROIT -- team is built big, fast and strong from the back end and they will be beginning to contend around this time


BOTTOM 5:

NASHVILLE -- their current plethora of vets will be aging out at this time and they'll commit to a rebuild
ST LOUIS -- not enough top end talent by this point and the vets they have will fizzle out or move on. Thomas will remain
WASHINGTON -- Ovechkin has retired and team will commit to a full-on rebuild
CALGARY -- missed out last year on a big talent in a deep draft, tons of middling pieces yet
PITTSBURGH -- Sid, Geno, Letang, Karlsson all gone and prospect pool will be barren still at this time

 

[HuGo Sham]

Not convinced your drafted talent over the last few years will lead you anywhere in the top 15 of the league. Habs goaltending is unproven and supporting cast of forwards in bottom 6 are low end. Suzuki, Slaf, Guhle and Caufield aren't enough to sustain a top 5 team.

Demidov, Fowler, Hutson, Hage, Reinbacher, Beck...etc...ok dude

not to mention Roy and maybe Dach

 

[logan5]

How can anyone not have the Hawks top 5???

They just drafted 8 1st round picks over the last 3 years/drafts(an NHL record for a 3 year span).

They have multiple 1sts and 2nds again next year, and again the year after that….and are only beginning to put together the foundation of their prospect pool which, headlined by Bedard(a legit generational cornerstone), is already deep and well balanced.

This would all be enough to put them in the discussion…but what puts them over the top are the added factors of them being a major market original 6 franchise that will attract big name FAs….and all the $$/cap space they are going to have at their disposal.

They’re gonna have to REALLY mess things up badly to not wind up being a legit top tier contender 5 years from now. There’s just too much going in their favor, starting and ending with their insane amount of draft capital and the sheer quantity of 1st/2nd/3rd round picks accumulated from 2021/22-2026/27.

Detroit has had a ton of 1st and 2nd round draft picks over the past 7 years, and they still have an 8 year play-off drought, though it looks like they are close to just being a play-off team. They are still a few years away from possibly being a top 5 team.

Bedard probly speeds up the process for Chicago though.

The reality of the cap era is that most teams take 7 to 9 years before they are a play-off calibre team, plus another few years before they are an elite top 5 team.

 

[Johnnyduck]

1. New Jersey
2. Buffalo
3. Detroit
4. Anaheim
5. Dallas
HM: Minnesota, Columbus, Montreal


1. Pittsburgh
2. Washington
3. Tampa Bay
4. Calgary
5. Vegas
HM: NYI, Nashville, St. Louis