Value of: Yotes & Sharks: What would it cost for AZ to Move Up from #6 to #4?

[themelkman]

From what I understand, Arizona is very likely targeting David R, so I would do this and take Michkov or Smith at 6

 

[Coyotes19c]

From what I understand, Arizona is very likely targeting David R, so I would do this and take Michkov or Smith at 6

Source?

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

It'd be contingent on San Jose's primary target being somebody they think they could still land at #6. With this draft class, that seems unlikely since there seems to be a tier drop after #5. I think there's a bit of a misconception that a team would trade down if enough draft capital was offered. Handful of examples:

- 2006: Boston offered #5 and #37 to Washington for #4. When asked who'd they be taking, Boston said Nicklas Backstrom which was a no for Washington.

- 2007: St. Louis wanted Jakub Voracek and offered #9 and #24 to Edmonton for #6. There was a perceived tier drop after #7, so Edmonton declined.

- 2016: Columbus made an undisclosed offer to flip #3 and #2 because they wanted Patrik Laine. Winnipeg wasn't interested.

- 2017: Vegas wanted to make a splash to get Nolan Patrick. It would have been a two part trade where Vegas tried to move up from #6 to #3, but Dallas said no because of the perceived drop after Heiskanen/Makar. Darren Dreger also said the Rangers pitched #7 and #21 to Dallas for #3 but were declined.

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Examples of when a trade did come to fruition:

- 1993: For better or worse, San Jose wanted Viktor Kozlov. So they traded #2 for #6, #45, #58, and Sergei Makarov (plus a conditional pick if Kozlov was off the board). They didn't do the trade because they were floored by what Hartford was offering. They did it because they would have taken Kozlov at #2, so now they could get Kozlov plus some extra assets.

- 1998: San Jose dealt #2 and #85 to Nashville for #3 and #29. Nashville wanted a forward to sell as the new face of the franchise. San Jose wanted a cornerstone D to pair with Patrick Marleau who had been picked the previous year.

- 1999: The overly complicated Brian Burke trades happened because Tampa/NYR and Atlanta happened to have different guys on top of their boards.

- 2002: Rick Dudley and Doug MacLean made an outside the box trade. Florida was going to take Jay Bouwmeester #1 but was able to move down to #3 and still get him.

- 2003: Panthers had Nathan Horton ranked #1 but figured they could move to #2 or #3 to get him. Dudley tried to drum up a trade market but ended up taking a relatively forgettable package to move to #3.

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TL;DR - Unless the Sharks had somebody like Dvorsky/Benson/etc in the same class as Carlsson/Smith/Michkov, they'd probably decline. Or if there was a scenario where San Jose wanted say Michkov and they knew Arizona/Montreal wouldn't take him then maybe there'd be a deal to be had. It's just difficult to say that #4 is definitely equal to #6, #38, #70, next year's 2nd, etc.

Great post. Here’s a pretty cool video of Boston trying to trade up with Washington to draft Backstrom. “They want the Swede” is a great line.

So fascinating how these decisions can impact teams for years to follow. Boston took Kessel at 5OA and then Yuri Alexandrov with 37. Kessel ended up netting Seguin and Dougie Hamilton as a result of the trade with Toronto, both of whom were also traded. Alexandrov never played in the NHL and his only North American season was 66 games in the AHL in 2010-11. Backstrom went on to be a Caps legend and will have his jersey retired in Washington whenever he hangs them up, and he may make it to the HHoF as well. Both teams won Cups either with the player they drafted (Backstrom) or with a pick they got for trading the player they drafted (Seguin).

 

[hbk]

would you discuss Cooley for #4?

No

Source?

Marek show and it looks like they are targeting Leonard.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Personally, I have Michkov as the #2 prospect in this draft. His timeline for arrival vibes well with Arizona's timeline. For those reasons, that's who I'd be after (provided it goes Beds, Fants, Leo 1 2 3, and he's there).

That said, if a deal couldn't be done, I'd be elated to get Leonard at 6. Big, mean center who scores and plays playoff style hockey every night, sign me up. But we got Cooley and Geekie last year. I want that game breaker if we can get him.

Habs may pick Leonard at 5. If Coyotes wants Leonard, they have to get ahead of the Habs.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

Habs may pick Leonard at 5. If Coyotes wants Leonard, they have to get ahead of the Habs.

Be my guest fam, we'll take Will Smith.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Be my guest fam, we'll take Will Smith.

Will Smith may have picked by Columbus already and this is why Habs will pick Leonard.

 

[hbk]

Will Smith may have picked by Columbus already and this is why Habs will pick Leonard.

Then AZ will take Michkov. I don't think AZ is worried about who is going to be there at 6.

 

[themelkman]

No


Marek show and it looks like they are targeting Leonard.

That’s not my source, but I think it’s very common knowledge that the yotes and David have some connections and a fit.

 

[hbk]

That’s not my source, but I think it’s very common knowledge that the yotes and David have some connections and a fit.

and Marek reported yesterday that they have had several interviews with Leonard and were having dinner with him. Not disputing that Reinbacher is in the mix. He's actually ahead of Leonard on my personal list but if I had to guess I think AZ is going to target a forward at 6 and potentially a D (one of Reinbacher, Pelika, Wallinder, or Simashev) at 12.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Then AZ will take Michkov. I don't think AZ is worried about who is going to be there at 6.

Mitchkov is special talent, but there is a lot of risks in picking him. This is why he probably will be available at 5/6th pick or beyond.

 

[hbk]

Mitchkov is special talent, but there is a lot of risks in picking him. This is why he probably will be available at 5/6th pick or beyond.

i have him at 3 on my personal list. I think AZ fans will be super excited to land him. Very aware of the issues surrounding him. Don't care.

 

[themelkman]

i have him at 3 on my personal list. I think AZ fans will be super excited to land him. Very aware of the issues surrounding him. Don't care.

I think the chances of them picking him are very low. With the state of their franchise, they will need someone in the next 2 years not 4

 

[hbk]

I think the chances of them picking him are very low. With the state of their franchise, they will need someone in the next 2 years not 4

I think you have it backwards. He's a perfect fit for their total rebuild which they are still in the early stages of. The plan is to start to be competing for a playoff spot when a new arena (knock on wood) is ready in about 3 years. It's actually really good timing.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

Will Smith may have picked by Columbus already and this is why Habs will pick Leonard.

So then we take either Michkov or Carlsson, whoever is left over. We're sitting pretty as is.

 

[Dead Coyote]

would you discuss Cooley for #4?

*personally* I'd do that, but I'm not sure if other fans would. Given his situation and our situation though...definitely would do.

 

[Dead Coyote]

From what I understand, Arizona is very likely targeting David R, so I would do this and take Michkov or Smith at 6

Absolutely not true. Nothing has pointed to this except a bunch of random ass scouts that have no idea what's going on.

 

[themelkman]

Absolutely not true. Nothing has pointed to this except a bunch of random ass scouts that have no idea what's going on.

I guess we will see. I dont see them trading up anyways

 

[Habsrule]

With all of this trading up from 6 to 4 and hoping Michkov falls;

I wouldn’t be surprised is Montreal is targeting Michkov at 5. For any team to select Michkov is such a tough choice for management to make. Let’s be real and management look usually into the near future and not the long future. Any GM can try to build a team that will be good four years from now but if that team is not good before that then that GM is not guaranteed to have a job still. With Montreal they have new management in place as of a year and a half ago. They have committed to a full blown rebuild as well. Them having the patience to wait for four years when Michkov’s contract is up in the KHL can work. Hughes, Gorton and St. Louis have good job security for then.

 

[ZDH]

4 for 6 and 12 is an overpay, but likely what it would take. Draftsim has 4 for 6/38/70/72/81 as equal value.

 

[ThorNton Apologist]

would you discuss Cooley for #4?

This is what I’d look for if I’m SJ and Arizona badly wants 4. Otherwise it would have to be 6+12

 

[themelkman]

This is what I’d look for if I’m SJ and Arizona badly wants 4. Otherwise it would have to be 6+12

Cooley for 4 is very interesting if Carlsson or Fantilli isn’t around and Grier doesn’t have the balls for Michkov

 

[lanceuppercut75]

From what I understand, Arizona is very likely targeting David R, so I would do this and take Michkov or Smith at 6

If Arizona is targeting Reinbacher, then why are trading up from 6th overall? Do they think he's going to be CLEARLY better than both Mitchkov and Smith? It'll be a steep price to pay to move up, and it's likely that Reinbacher is still available at #6.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

If Arizona is targeting Reinbacher, then why are trading up from 6th overall? Do they think he's going to be CLEARLY better than both Mitchkov and Smith? It'll be a steep price to pay to move up, and it's likely that Reinbacher is still available at #6.

I would be moving up for Michkov, not Reinbacher.

 

[samsagat]

Rumors are Habs management won't have the balls to draft Michkov if he's available. As of the rumors, Leonard or Reinbacher would be the two players Habs are coveting.

Supposedly, SJ will pick the one remaining between Carlsson and Smith.

So if it's for Michkov that this trade up scenario have been thought, it won't be necessary..