Proposal: Would you trade Kyrou for Dobson

[TheDizee]

Kyrou should be traded for Brady Tkachuk before the trade deadline.

 

[BlueSeal]

I wouldn't trade Kyrou for him, but I sure as hell would trade some other folks for him. Added firepower can make up for a subpar blueline.

 

[SirPaste]

Kyrou should be traded for Brady Tkachuk before the trade deadline.

Definitely! If I was the GM of a team in a playoff spot for the first time in a decade, the first thing I would do is trade my captain and best player for Jordan Kyrou at the deadline to really put ourselves over the top!

 

[StlBigFly]

My vote changed to yes when I realized

Dobson is on the most boring (positionally responsible) team. And ofc is a defenseman.

And last year he got more points than Kyrou.

While being a year younger.

Yeah, imma be okay with that swap. I don’t think the islanders would be. I wouldn’t do it “to get rid of Kyrou”…the other guy is the better player probably, also kinda huge, and younger, and in a more valuable role. Kinda makes sense he could be involved with miller or Petey..Kyrou maybe not enough payment to do the thing, maybe Schenn not enough too. Idk.

 

[simon IC]

I'm a bit leary of Dobson. I'm not sold on his defensive game. I would certainly think about it but at this point I think the Islanders add.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I'm a bit leary of Dobson. I'm not sold on his defensive game. I would certainly think about it but at this point I think the Islanders add.

The Blues need to acquire a guy like this BEFORE he’s answered all those questions, while they can afford the acquisition cost. Otherwise no team would trade Dobson.

Toews was the last opportunity like that.

It doesn’t have to be Kyrou that is traded, but if the long term contract is immediately signed, you can justify including him.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

The Blues need to acquire a guy like this BEFORE he’s answered all those questions, while they can afford the acquisition cost. Otherwise no team would trade Dobson.

Toews was the last opportunity like that.

It doesn’t have to be Kyrou that is traded, but if the long term contract is immediately signed, you can justify including him.

Exactly. No one is trading Dobson if he's a 70 point guy who has great defensive metrics. They're going to pay him 11M or whatever he wants and have a core pillar to build around for the next decade.

We have to be opportunistic about a young player that might not have reached their ceiling (Dobson, Nemec, Clarke, etc) but we believe can turn into that core pillar in the next 2-3 years, or we're going to have to hope someone shakes loose in UFA, which rarely if ever happens. The UFA route is also complicated by timing, we need a UFA to shake out -when we need them to- not too early when our young core isn't really ready to compete. I wouldn't want us to sign a 29-30 year old Petro this off-season, for instance.

I think Dobson is a good player, I think he could be that #1 play driving core pillar type guy. I'm not willing to pay him 11M today, nor am I willing to part with Kyrou for him. If he was willing to accept a 9.5x8 today, I'd start the package with Leddy, Neighbors, and our 2025 1st top 8 protected.

 

[Majorityof1]

The Blues need to acquire a guy like this BEFORE he’s answered all those questions, while they can afford the acquisition cost. Otherwise no team would trade Dobson.

Toews was the last opportunity like that.

It doesn’t have to be Kyrou that is traded, but if the long term contract is immediately signed, you can justify including him.

Exactly. No one is trading Dobson if he's a 70 point guy who has great defensive metrics. They're going to pay him 11M or whatever he wants and have a core pillar to build around for the next decade.

We have to be opportunistic about a young player that might not have reached their ceiling (Dobson, Nemec, Clarke, etc) but we believe can turn into that core pillar in the next 2-3 years, or we're going to have to hope someone shakes loose in UFA, which rarely if ever happens. The UFA route is also complicated by timing, we need a UFA to shake out -when we need them to- not too early when our young core isn't really ready to compete. I wouldn't want us to sign a 29-30 year old Petro this off-season, for instance.

I think Dobson is a good player, I think he could be that #1 play driving core pillar type guy. I'm not willing to pay him 11M today, nor am I willing to part with Kyrou for him. If he was willing to accept a 9.5x8 today, I'd start the package with Leddy, Neighbors, and our 2025 1st top 8 protected.

Yes we need to acquire a guy before he reaches his ceiling. But the word "Before" implies he will. I have not seen much discussion on here about what he has that will allow him to take the next step to be that next level. It seems like for some (not necessarily the quoted) we just need a high-end guy so desperately that we will take a gamble on the first possibility that comes available.

As for not trading Kyrou or not paying him $11M, those may not be possibilities. I think almost everyone would be on board if the acquisition and signing cost were low enough. @Brian39 has posted some thoughts on why Dobson is unlikely to sign a sub $10 contract. I'll add he is even more likely to do so for a middle market team, with a not-yet favorable tax situation, who he has 0 ties to and has missed the playoffs for the past 3 years. Maybe he would for NY, Bos, or Montreal that are closer to his home. Or TB/FL who can offer a better tax situation and a more stable contender. But why does he tell St. Louis he will sign for millions less than he can get on the market?

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Yes we need to acquire a guy before he reaches his ceiling. But the word "Before" implies he will. I have not seen much discussion on here about what he has that will allow him to take the next step to be that next level. It seems like for some (not necessarily the quoted) we just need a high-end guy so desperately that we will take a gamble on the first possibility that comes available.

As for not trading Kyrou or not paying him $11M, those may not be possibilities. I think almost everyone would be on board if the acquisition and signing cost were low enough. @Brian39 has posted some thoughts on why Dobson is unlikely to sign a sub $10 contract. I'll add he is even more likely to do so for a middle market team, with a not-yet favorable tax situation, who he has 0 ties to and has missed the playoffs for the past 3 years. Maybe he would for NY, Bos, or Montreal that are closer to his home. Or TB/FL who can offer a better tax situation and a more stable contender. But why does he tell St. Louis he will sign for millions less than he can get on the market?

For the first part - I think I've pointed out that he's improved in the D-zone over the last four years. Outside of one random year where he got 65% OZone starts, he's been pretty balanced in his usage. He's seen an increase in TOI every year, as well as higher QoC, and yet with all that his xGA/60 has decreased year over year.

I'm interested in Dobson for three reasons - 1. He fits our core age group. 2. He potentially fits our biggest organizational need - Play driving true #1D pillar at our biggest organizational weakness, which is RHD. 3. Even if we gamble and he doesn't turn into the true #1D, he's shown enough that he can be a reliable Top-4 RHD who can also QB the Powerplay, which is still something we desperately need. Outside of Jiricek, who's easily 3 years away before making an impact in the NHL, we have no one in our prospect pool that has the pedigree of a top 4 guy who can also PP QB, of either handedness.

As for your second part - I don't think he'd sign here if he made it to UFA. We would 100% have to trade for him. However, we generally sell people pretty well on St. Louis once they get here. As for why would he take less then 10-11M? The answer is security. Dobson has made pretty good money so far, but he's 24 and has lived in a HCOL area - I'd wager he's probably made around 5-6M in real dollars after taxes/agent fees/etc. That's a good amount for a 24 year old, but it's not life changing, never have to work again, set for life for my family money. He's been a 50 point (Or 50 point pace) player for 3 of the last 4 seasons, with that one 70 point season thrown in. Let's say he takes an Arb award for 6M and walks him to UFA. But then he puts up yet another 50 point season (Or less) and the Islanders struggle. Do you think he really makes 11M on the open market at that point? John Klingberg is a real comparable many teams might point to when dealing with Dobson.

 

[Majorityof1]

For the first part - I think I've pointed out that he's improved in the D-zone over the last four years. Outside of one random year where he got 65% OZone starts, he's been pretty balanced in his usage. He's seen an increase in TOI every year, as well as higher QoC, and yet with all that his xGA/60 has decreased year over year.

I'm interested in Dobson for three reasons - 1. He fits our core age group. 2. He potentially fits our biggest organizational need - Play driving true #1D pillar at our biggest organizational weakness, which is RHD. 3. Even if we gamble and he doesn't turn into the true #1D, he's shown enough that he can be a reliable Top-4 RHD who can also QB the Powerplay, which is still something we desperately need. Outside of Jiricek, who's easily 3 years away before making an impact in the NHL, we have no one in our prospect pool that has the pedigree of a top 4 guy who can also PP QB, of either handedness.

As for your second part - I don't think he'd sign here if he made it to UFA. We would 100% have to trade for him. However, we generally sell people pretty well on St. Louis once they get here. As for why would he take less then 10-11M? The answer is security. Dobson has made pretty good money so far, but he's 24 and has lived in a HCOL area - I'd wager he's probably made around 5-6M in real dollars after taxes/agent fees/etc. That's a good amount for a 24 year old, but it's not life changing, never have to work again, set for life for my family money. He's been a 50 point (Or 50 point pace) player for 3 of the last 4 seasons, with that one 70 point season thrown in. Let's say he takes an Arb award for 6M and walks him to UFA. But then he puts up yet another 50 point season (Or less) and the Islanders struggle. Do you think he really makes 11M on the open market at that point? John Klingberg is a real comparable many teams might point to when dealing with Dobson.

Klingburg is an awful comparable. He hit UFA at 29 during a flat-cap period, asked for the moon, and got squeezed out. Then he has not been able to replicate his success or stay healthy with other teams. Dobson is 24. He scored 70 points last year, but his prior 2 years were also both above Klingburg's career high of 47 points. And the cap is about to explode. As I said, Brian39 has made some good posts on this. I don't have time to look at comparables, but when it comes to cap, I trust his analysis. He thinks Dobson would be foolish to take less than $11M.

I think you are talking out both sides of your mouth a bit (just a bit). All the reasons you list for why we would want him are all the reasons other teams will as well. You cannot say that he is a young, RHD, who is trending up defensively and already has a better offensive season than Klingburg ever did by a wide margin, and no other team is going to bid him up with a rising cap.

I agree with all the reasons we would want him. I am just not sold on the risk of trading Kyrou and paying him $10M++. I think we actually agree on that. If we can get him for the salary and acquisition cost you laid out, that is a no-brainer.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Klingburg is an awful comparable. He hit UFA at 29 during a flat-cap period, asked for the moon, and got squeezed out. Then he has not been able to replicate his success or stay healthy with other teams. Dobson is 24. He scored 70 points last year, but his prior 2 years were also both above Klingburg's career high of 47 points. And the cap is about to explode. As I said, Brian39 has made some good posts on this. I don't have time to look at comparables, but when it comes to cap, I trust his analysis. He thinks Dobson would be foolish to take less than $11M.

I think you are talking out both sides of your mouth a bit (just a bit). All the reasons you list for why we would want him are all the reasons other teams will as well. You cannot say that he is a young, RHD, who is trending up defensively and already has a better offensive season than Klingburg ever did by a wide margin, and no other team is going to bid him up with a rising cap.

I agree with all the reasons we would want him. I am just not sold on the risk of trading Kyrou and paying him $10M++. I think we actually agree on that. If we can get him for the salary and acquisition cost you laid out, that is a no-brainer.

You need to check whatever hockey site you're getting stats from. Klingberg had a 58 point season at age 23 and a 67 point season when he was 25, so I have no clue where this 47 point career high you're talking about comes from. He put those numbers up at a time when scoring was far lower on average in the NHL in the mid 2010's.

Klingberg is very comparable to Dobson at the same age. Dobson got to the NHL earlier, but over the last four years has had 51, 49, 70, and was on pace for 43 points before he got hurt. Again, in a league where scoring is much higher. Those figures reflect his age 22, 23, 24, and 25 years. That's a sub 50 point average except for his 70 point explosion. At the same ages Klingberg put up 40, 58, 49, 67, with that first year being his rookie season where he spent 10 games in the AHL to start the year (And put up 12 points in those 10 games) as well as putting up 6 points in 7 games at the World Championships. He put up 45 points the next season (In 64 games, so a 58 point pace) and in all of those seasons except his rookie year he averaged between 22:30-24+ minutes a night with positive goal differentials. I think Klingberg is a reasonable comp, and he's the reason why I'm not OK with us spending 11M on Dobson, or trading Kyrou for him.

9.5M is too much, even with the cap exploding, for a top-4 guy who can QB your PP. But it's not enough for a true #1D that you can build around. If Dobson wants to bet on himself, then fine. Klingberg did and it failed. And no, he didn't get squeezed, he was offered a 7Mx8, and he turned it down b/c he wanted 8x8. He wanted an AAV 1M higher then what he was offered and ended up eating it. Brian can say all he wants about Dobson's potential leverage, but if he puts up another sub 50 point season after this one, I don't think anyone is offering him 11M on the market.

 

[BlueDream]

At the very least, I’d strongly consider it.

One thing I’ve been thinking of when people are talking about his defensive game, is this team flat out needs someone that may not necessarily be a stud in the d-zone, but can just make the team play less defense. I’m not sure we will ever get back to being a puck-possession team that plays more in the offensive zone until we have a guy that can control the game from the backend. Like for example, someone brought up Brandon Carlo in the trade thread and he’s more of a shutdown-type, but I just don’t see how he would elevate this team. I’d take him over Faulk, sure, but our ceiling isn’t changing with that type of move. Let’s shoot high. I like that we made an aggressive move for Broberg, now I’d like to find him a partner.

I’m also content slightly overpaying on Dobson’s next contract, assuming we can also find a way to dump Faulk. I wouldn’t be worrying about our cap situation moving forward in this case. Essentially this is how I’d view the defense next season:

Broberg-Dobson
Fowler-Parayko
Leddy-Tucker/Kessel
Loof

I’d feel like for the first time in quite a while, we would have a legitimate top 4 that has the talent to compete. I’d feel pretty good about that defense, and we would have Lindstein on the way to eventually supplant Fowler in a couple years.

 

[bleedblue1223]

At the very least, I’d strongly consider it.

One thing I’ve been thinking of when people are talking about his defensive game, is this team flat out needs someone that may not necessarily be a stud in the d-zone, but can just make the team play less defense. I’m not sure we will ever get back to being a puck-possession team that plays more in the offensive zone until we have a guy that can control the game from the backend. Like for example, someone brought up Brandon Carlo in the trade thread and he’s more of a shutdown-type, but I just don’t see how he would elevate this team. I’d take him over Faulk, sure, but our ceiling isn’t changing with that type of move. Let’s shoot high. I like that we made an aggressive move for Broberg, now I’d like to find him a partner.

I’m also content slightly overpaying on Dobson’s next contract, assuming we can also find a way to dump Faulk. I wouldn’t be worrying about our cap situation moving forward in this case. Essentially this is how I’d view the defense next season:

Broberg-Dobson
Fowler-Parayko
Leddy-Tucker/Kessel
Loof

I’d feel like for the first time in quite a while, we would have a legitimate top 4 that has the talent to compete. I’d feel pretty good about that defense, and we would have Lindstein on the way to eventually supplant Fowler in a couple years.

Exactly. We have the Parayko pair in the top 4, but what we lack is the main offensive pair, and we completely lack that player in our system. We need that type of a player, and Parayko allows us to easily handle whatever defensive shortcomings Dobson has. Similar to how Pelech has allowed Dobson to have a more offensive deployment. It kind of reminds me of how some misinterpret comments I have about Kyrou. Teams with only 2-way or defensive players will struggle, as would teams with just offensive players. You need a mix, a balance, and I don't see a primary offensive defenseman anywhere in our system under the age of Fowler, especially one with top 4 upside to handle 20+ minutes.

I can understand those that are somewhat concerned about Dobson's long-term production. Is he closer to last season when he was 70 points, the previous 2 seasons with 50ish points, or this season with around a 43 point pace. It's not an ideal spot to be in for him or a team extending him, with some level of uncertainty.

If you can get him and he's consistently 50+ points with some seasons of 60+ when the forwards or PP has a big year, I'm more than happy giving him whatever the new market rate is for a high-end defenseman.

 

[stl76]

The more I think about it, the more OK I am with it. We’ll see what happens, going to be an interesting next few months for the franchise leading up to the TDL and seeing where our 1st lands.

 

[MissouriMook]

If you trade Kyrou to improve the defense, who is going to be scoring the goals? Thomas and Holloway are the only two other players on pace to score more than 20 goals and you have no one else anywhere near the pace for the 30-35 that Kyrou will score. Expecting Snuggerud or Dvorsky to come in and replace that production, or to expect that from an expanded role given to Bolduc, would require a lot of hopium.

 

[bleedblue1223]

It's not hopium, it's looking at what this team projects to be in 3ish years and making decisions that would be best for that team. Even if Snuggerud and Dvorsky fail to develp in 25-35 goal scorers, that type of a player is a hell of a lot easier to acquire than a Dobson.

I could even see a scenario where we use Kyrou to get Dobson, and our 1st to get a core-aged NHL forward. It's not like we are limited to 1 move and forced to rely on prospects to replace Kyrou.

 

[Majorityof1]

You need to check whatever hockey site you're getting stats from. Klingberg had a 58 point season at age 23 and a 67 point season when he was 25, so I have no clue where this 47 point career high you're talking about comes from. He put those numbers up at a time when scoring was far lower on average in the NHL in the mid 2010's.

Klingberg is very comparable to Dobson at the same age. Dobson got to the NHL earlier, but over the last four years has had 51, 49, 70, and was on pace for 43 points before he got hurt. Again, in a league where scoring is much higher. Those figures reflect his age 22, 23, 24, and 25 years. That's a sub 50 point average except for his 70 point explosion. At the same ages Klingberg put up 40, 58, 49, 67, with that first year being his rookie season where he spent 10 games in the AHL to start the year (And put up 12 points in those 10 games) as well as putting up 6 points in 7 games at the World Championships. He put up 45 points the next season (In 64 games, so a 58 point pace) and in all of those seasons except his rookie year he averaged between 22:30-24+ minutes a night with positive goal differentials. I think Klingberg is a reasonable comp, and he's the reason why I'm not OK with us spending 11M on Dobson, or trading Kyrou for him.

9.5M is too much, even with the cap exploding, for a top-4 guy who can QB your PP. But it's not enough for a true #1D that you can build around. If Dobson wants to bet on himself, then fine. Klingberg did and it failed. And no, he didn't get squeezed, he was offered a 7Mx8, and he turned it down b/c he wanted 8x8. He wanted an AAV 1M higher then what he was offered and ended up eating it. Brian can say all he wants about Dobson's potential leverage, but if he puts up another sub 50 point season after this one, I don't think anyone is offering him 11M on the market.

You are right on the Klingberg stats. My bad. good looking out. I was on my phone and didn't scroll far enough, I guess. I still think timing, age and cap situation make it very different.

I still don't think it's a good comparable. You are either comparing his RFA deal where he was 23 years old and the cap was $71M. Or when he was 29 coming off of 4 seasons where he missed 18+ games in 3 of the 4 and failed to score 50 in any, and it was post-covid flat cap era. But we shall see in time what he signs for.

 

[BlueDream]

If you trade Kyrou to improve the defense, who is going to be scoring the goals? Thomas and Holloway are the only two other players on pace to score more than 20 goals and you have no one else anywhere near the pace for the 30-35 that Kyrou will score. Expecting Snuggerud or Dvorsky to come in and replace that production, or to expect that from an expanded role given to Bolduc, would require a lot of hopium.

There would need to be a follow up move to trade a futures package for a #2 center (or sign one). So we’d be bringing in that guy, and then counting on jumps from Bolduc and Neighbours again, as well as contributions from Dvorsky and Snuggerud yes. It would have be to be a group effort but as bleedblue said, I think we’d be more balanced moving forward.

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

I’d much rather have a mainly futures package instead of moving Kyrou. We need to be adding to our top 6, not subtracting from it.

With as many ELC guys as we’re gonna have in the next couple years+the cap jumping up, I’d be fine paying whatever for his extension as long as it’s not an absolutely insane ask like $12 mil+.

 

[stl76]

The more I think about it, the more sure I am the islanders would not do it.

 

[aceoutdoor]

Hypothetically if you had a choice would you rather have Buium, Willander, Dobson or Nemec in a Bluenote? Rank them 1 to 4.

​

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Hypothetically if you had a choice would you rather have Buium, Willander, Dobson or Nemec in a Bluenote? Rank them 1 to 4.

​

Comparing two prospects to two guys already playing in the NHL is kinda hard to do.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Hypothetically if you had a choice would you rather have Buium, Willander, Dobson or Nemec in a Bluenote? Rank them 1 to 4.

​

All factors considered?

Nemec
Dobson
Willander
Buium

 

[ChicagoBlues]

All factors considered?

Nemec
Dobson
Willander
Buium

Flip Dobson and Nemec and I agree.

 

[Blanick]

Hypothetically if you had a choice would you rather have Buium, Willander, Dobson or Nemec in a Bluenote? Rank them 1 to 4.

​

#1. Nemec
PROS: RHD, plays both ways, great size, skates well and great draft pedigree. Ready to step into NHL very soon.
CONS: With his draft position you would have hoped he would be everyday player in the NHL by now.

#2. Dobson
PROS: RHD, has the size, great offensive instincts and has proven it at NHL level.
CONS: Actual defense, caught out of position a lot, by no means old but oldest of names mentioned.

#3. Willander
PROS: RHD, decent but not great size, excellent defensive stick and positioning, pretty good skater and looked great next to Lindstein at last years WJC.
CONS: Questions about his offensive upside and transition game.

#4. Buium
PROS: Fluid skater, elite level offensive instincts, handles the puck extremely well, PP weapon.
CONS: Average size, game away from puck needs work and he is LHD prospect of which we are pretty strong.