Proposal: Would you trade Kyrou for Dobson

[LogosBlue]

If the only reason Buium isn't #1 on this list is because he's LHD that would make sense for Blues posters. He's arguably the top prospect not in the NHL at the moment. Even with our glut of LHD, I'd still take him first (the others can fight for second and third place / use cast offs as trade bait). He definitely shakes out as a top pair defenseman and will be cost controlled for a while.

#1 - Buium
#2 - Dobson
#3 - Willander
#4 - Nemec

 

[bleedblue1223]

Dobson is #1 AINEC. He fits the age range we'd want, and he's already an offensive top pair defenseman.

Of the prospects, I rank Buium ahead of the others, and I probably lean Nemec over Willander, but I'm fine with any order of the 3.

For me when it comes to handedness, acquire the best possible player, and if that means we look to move someone we currently have on the left for someone on the right, so be it.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Buium isn’t what we are missing. He has become way overrated. Slightly undersized, agile but not fast, I see guy more likely to be next Rasmus Sandin than the Adam Fox he is being hyped as.

 

[TruBlueFan1970]

Buium isn’t what we are missing. He has become way overrated. Slightly undersized, agile but not fast, I see guy more likely to be next Rasmus Sandin than the Adam Fox he is being hyped as.

Admittedly, I haven't seen much of Buium, but wow, that sounds too much like Perunovich to me. If even remotely similar, I'm a 10000% pass on acquiring another small, agile guy, who doesn't work out against the bigger and faster players in the NHL.

 

[LogosBlue]

Admittedly, I haven't seen much of Buium, but wow, that sounds too much like Perunovich to me. If even remotely similar, I'm a 10000% pass on acquiring another small, agile guy, who doesn't work out against the bigger and faster players in the NHL.

He's not undersized. 6'-0" 185 at 19 years old. He's a smaller defenseman than we've been drafting but not undersized by any means. Perunovich was an undersized player. Buium is over a point per game player in his first two years in NCAA. +33 first season / +11 so far this season. He's also not constantly injured.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

He's not undersized. 6'-0" 185 at 19 years old. He's a smaller defenseman than we've been drafting but not undersized by any means. Perunovich was an undersized player. Buium is over a point per game player in his first two years in NCAA. +33 first season / +11 so far this season. He's also not constantly injured.

Bigger than peru and still undersized includes lots of players, including Buium.

 

[LogosBlue]

Bigger than peru and still undersized includes lots of players, including Buium.

NHL average is 6'-1" / 200lbs. I grew another inch and added over 25 lbs of muscle between 19 and 22. I'd say he's about average but your entitled to your opinion.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

This is a great question. Each guy has pro's and con's. Without getting into things like acquisition cost and contract status, I think I'd rank them like this:

1. Dobson - he's proven it at the NHL level. He's right in the same core age range as the rest of the players we want to build around. He fits our biggest organizational weakness, which is puck moving top 4 D, and also happens to be a righty. As long as we keep Parayko, I'm not worried about his defensive deficiencies, real or imagined. Even if we move on from Parayko for some reason, I still think he'd be fine. Puck moving D-men lose the puck from time to time, it's part of the game, and when they do, it generally ends up in the back of the net as they're the last man back. I've seen Makar, Bouchard, and Hughes all make these kind of plays - it's just what happens when you have the puck on your stick so much.

2. Buium - His ceiling offensively is Hughes/Makar. If he was right-handed he's easily #1 and it wouldn't be close. He was the second youngest player in college last year, so he's still got a lot of runway left. He has two WJC gold medals and an NCAA title, and Denver looks pretty damn strong again this year. I think there are some concerns about his skating, as well as his size, but I think those are fairly overblown. He fits what we need most of all in this retool, a puck moving transition monster. I'm still so f***ing frustrated we didn't move up to take him or Dickinson and ended up with Jiricek.

3. Willander - I'm mainly picking Willander here over Nemec b/c we've seen how well he plays next to Lindstein and I think those two guys become the 2nd pair of the future while we hope Jiricek or someone else pops into that top guy role. Willander has decent size, but needs to pack on the LBs. His offense isn't anything to write home about, but I think he transitions the puck up well and paired with Lindstein turns our second paring into the prime Pulock/Pelech or Slavin/Pesce type.

4. Nemec - His stock has dropped recently, but he's still the most pro ready prospect of the three listed here. He's got a sturdy frame, he skates well, and he's already played in big games on the international stage (Winning Bronze in the 2022 Olympics, yes you read that right, he was on the Slovak Olympic team three years ago in the Beijing Olympics and played in all 7 games at the age of 18) - his offense is a concern. He was never a super dynamic offensive player, but he was playing at such high levels at such a young age everyone just assumed it would come with time. Well, it hasn't really yet, and that's put a big damper on his overall ceiling. He's doing well in the AHL, but it hasn't yet really translated to the NHL. For a guy who's calling card was being so advanced at such a young age, it's tough to tell where he shakes out.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

If the only reason Buium isn't #1 on this list is because he's LHD that would make sense for Blues posters. He's arguably the top prospect not in the NHL at the moment. Even with our glut of LHD, I'd still take him first (the others can fight for second and third place / use cast offs as trade bait). He definitely shakes out as a top pair defenseman and will be cost controlled for a while.

#1 - Buium
#2 - Dobson
#3 - Willander
#4 - Nemec

No, it’s because he’s never played a single faceoff in the NHL. Same with Willander.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

This is a great question. Each guy has pro's and con's. Without getting into things like acquisition cost and contract status, I think I'd rank them like this:

1. Dobson - he's proven it at the NHL level. He's right in the same core age range as the rest of the players we want to build around. He fits our biggest organizational weakness, which is puck moving top 4 D, and also happens to be a righty. As long as we keep Parayko, I'm not worried about his defensive deficiencies, real or imagined. Even if we move on from Parayko for some reason, I still think he'd be fine. Puck moving D-men lose the puck from time to time, it's part of the game, and when they do, it generally ends up in the back of the net as they're the last man back. I've seen Makar, Bouchard, and Hughes all make these kind of plays - it's just what happens when you have the puck on your stick so much.

2. Buium - His ceiling offensively is Hughes/Makar. If he was right-handed he's easily #1 and it wouldn't be close. He was the second youngest player in college last year, so he's still got a lot of runway left. He has two WJC gold medals and an NCAA title, and Denver looks pretty damn strong again this year. I think there are some concerns about his skating, as well as his size, but I think those are fairly overblown. He fits what we need most of all in this retool, a puck moving transition monster. I'm still so f***ing frustrated we didn't move up to take him or Dickinson and ended up with Jiricek.

3. Willander - I'm mainly picking Willander here over Nemec b/c we've seen how well he plays next to Lindstein and I think those two guys become the 2nd pair of the future while we hope Jiricek or someone else pops into that top guy role. Willander has decent size, but needs to pack on the LBs. His offense isn't anything to write home about, but I think he transitions the puck up well and paired with Lindstein turns our second paring into the prime Pulock/Pelech or Slavin/Pesce type.

4. Nemec - His stock has dropped recently, but he's still the most pro ready prospect of the three listed here. He's got a sturdy frame, he skates well, and he's already played in big games on the international stage (Winning Bronze in the 2022 Olympics, yes you read that right, he was on the Slovak Olympic team three years ago in the Beijing Olympics and played in all 7 games at the age of 18) - his offense is a concern. He was never a super dynamic offensive player, but he was playing at such high levels at such a young age everyone just assumed it would come with time. Well, it hasn't really yet, and that's put a big damper on his overall ceiling. He's doing well in the AHL, but it hasn't yet really translated to the NHL. For a guy who's calling card was being so advanced at such a young age, it's tough to tell where he shakes out.

Hughes and Makar are electric skaters, Buium isn't. He is good player, but folks, and not just here, are way too high on him. I expect he will be a good 2nd pairing D, which is nice value where he was picked, but seeing Wheeler call him 2nd best drafted prospect shows whey nobody should take Wheeler seriously.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Hughes and Makar are electric skaters, Buium isn't. He is good player, but folks, and not just here, are way too high on him. I expect he will be a good 2nd pairing D, which is nice value where he was picked, but seeing Wheeler call him 2nd best drafted prospect shows whey nobody should take Wheeler seriously.

I agree he will likely never skate as well as either of those two guys, but he's scored at similar or better rates in the WJC and NCAA. He's got elite IQ and vision, and I think he skates well enough that it won't matter. I think he probably tops out as more of an AP then a Makar/Hughes personally, but that's still a top 10 guy most years. Compared to Willander and Nemec it's really a no-brainer to place Buium above them.

 

[Spektre]

Never in a million years are the Blues getting Buium so it's a moot point.

 

[Brian39]

Brian can say all he wants about Dobson's potential leverage, but if he puts up another sub 50 point season after this one, I don't think anyone is offering him 11M on the market.

He's a 6'4" right hand shot D man who has played at a 50+ point pace for 3 straight years, had a 70 point career-best, and is "only" on pace for 42 points this year. He'll be 26 at the start of the 2026/27 season. That combination of age, production, position, and size is one of the rarest commodities in the NHL.

Here are some notable comps and their 5 seasons leading up to the contract (most recent season last):

Chicago gave up significant assets to acquire a 26 year old Seth Jones and then promptly gave him 11.52% of the cap. In the 5 seasons leading up to that trade/extension he played at a 46 point pace, a 60 point pace, a 50 point pace, a 44 point pace, and then a 41 point pace. 11.52% of $104M is $11.9M.

New York gave Trouba 9.82% of the cap when he was 25 and forced a trade to them because New York was the only place he wanted to play. In the 5 seasons before that he played at a 28 point pace, a 21 point pace, a 45 point pace, a 35 point pace, and then a 50 point pace. 9.82% of $104M is $10.2M

New Jersey gave Hamilton 11.04% of the cap when he was 28. In the 5 seasons before that, he played at a 50 point pace, a 44 point pace, a 39 point pace, a 70 point pace (in 47 games) and a 62 point pace (in 55 games). 11.04% of $104M is $11.48M.

Edmonton gave Nurse 11.21% of the cap when he was 26. In the 5 seasons before that, he played at a 20 point pace, a 26 point pace, a 41 point pace, a 38 point pace, and then a 52 point pace. 11.21% of $104M is $11.66M.

NHL GMs have proven over and over again that they will heave money with reckless abandon at big, mid-20s D men who can produce in the 40-50 point range with the occasional pop of 60+ points.

Dobson has scored at a 52 point pace, a 51 point pace, a 72 point pace, and a 43 point pace in this most recent season. Another mid 40s season would put him right in line with (or better than) those guys.

Let's say he takes an Arb award for 6M and walks him to UFA.

He's getting well north of that in arbitration.

Trouba got a $5.5M arbitration award in 2018, which was 6.9% of the cap and made him (tied for) the 22nd highest paid D man in the league. 6.9% of next year's $95.5M cap would be $6.6M and the 22nd highest paid D man in the league for next year is currently set to make $8M against the cap. Trouba had 24 points in an injury-shortened 55 game season heading into arbitration and his career high was 33 points. Dobson has a noticeably better arbitration resume and the last few years has seen a large number of RFA D signings in the $8M+ range.

The reason I keep talking about his leverage is because all the comps say that he would do better than $9.5M on the UFA market even if the 70 point year was a one off and he is 'just' the mid 40s to 50 point guy. Barring a major career-altering injury, his floor by going arbitration-to-UFA is simply better than $9.5M x 8 years and he would very likely get that type of offer from teams/locations more desirable than the Blues. And there is potential to out-earn that contract by $15M-20M.