Would you rather forfeit a mid 2025 first rounder or a low 2026 first rounder?

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Assuming we manage to make the playoffs and don't make it to the ecf or further, thus our pick ends up being a mid first rounder (16-20th). Would you rather we forfeit that pick or forfeit a 2026 1st rounder in which we finish high in the standings thus be 20th overall or lower? Even if we know for sure that we'll finish better in 2026, I'd still rather forfeit 2025 if we make the playoffs as a low seed. 2026 draft is not just deeper, but if we somehow implode, there's a chance we can draft McKenna.

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[Senscore]

Harmonic being off the books next year should give us a bump of at least a few spots in the standings.


But yeah, delay delay delay, and threaten legal action if necessary if you're Andlauer.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Harmonic being off the books next year should give us a bump of at least a few spots in the standings.


But yeah, delay delay delay, and threaten legal action if necessary if you're Andlauer.

Not happening

 

[PlayOn]

Forfeit next year’s pick.

While I think our prospect pool issues are somewhat overblown in the sense we don’t actually have that many gaps to fill in our lineup so we don’t need a ton of prospects (assuming the core stays in tact), there will come a time in 2-3 years where UFA contracts start becoming a factor and bridge deals expire etc, so we will need to have a couple of prospects step in.

Developing players takes awhile. Better to get ahead of it sooner than later imo.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Forfeit next year’s pick.

While I think our prospect pool issues are somewhat overblown in the sense we don’t actually have that many gaps to fill in our lineup so we don’t need a ton of prospects (assuming the core stays in tact), there will come a time in 2-3 years where UFA contracts start becoming a factor and bridge deals expire etc, so we will need to have a couple of prospects step in.

Developing players takes awhile. Better to get ahead of it sooner than later imo.

Harmonic being off the books next year should give us a bump of at least a few spots in the standings.


But yeah, delay delay delay, and threaten legal action if necessary if you're Andlauer.

The thing is beyond the fact that there's a generational talent and next years draft is deeper (plus we don't have our 2nd rounder), we don't know for sure what happens if regression happens or if we suffer a massive amount of injuries. We can be more talented both on paper and ice and still finish worse through things we can't control next year.

 

[PlayOn]

The thing is beyond the fact that there's a generational talent and next years draft is deeper (plus we don't have our 2nd rounder), we don't know for sure what happens if regression happens or if we suffer a massive amount of injuries. We can be more talented both on paper and ice and still finish worse through things we can't control next year.

Well the poll asked if it’s 20th - 32nd.

IMO Andlauer and Staios will know if Bettman would be willing to extend the date of giving up the pick or remove the punishment.

If the answer is a hard no, I would probably forfeit this year’s pick just to mitigate risk. But if I know for sure the pick is gonna be in the 20s next year, or that Bettman is willing to budge, then I’m picking this year.

 

[Senscore]

The thing is beyond the fact that there's a generational talent and next years draft is deeper (plus we don't have our 2nd rounder), we don't know for sure what happens if regression happens or if we suffer a massive amount of injuries. We can be more talented both on paper and ice and still finish worse through things we can't control next year.

I think the strength of a draft class is probably less predictable than how the team will perform next year. There's many more variables in play. Didn't take long for Lafreniere to go from the unequivocal number one to further down the list in redrafts.


Next year is another year of a young core getting closer or further into their prime, and more familiar with each other's game. It's also another year that Staois will be able to make the team further resemble his vision and less Dorions.


Pushing the pick would be the best option.

 

[BigRig4]

Think it has to be this year that we give up if we’re outside the top 10. We don’t want that hanging over us all of next season if we get freak injuries or a bad run of goaltending etc.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Harmonic being off the books next year should give us a bump of at least a few spots in the standings.


But yeah, delay delay delay, and threaten legal action if necessary if you're Andlauer.

That would depend on a few things, but if we are getting another $1 m or so defender from the marketplace, then not sure if there will be as dramatic of an impact (e.g., at least a few spots in the standings).

 

[OUT HOUSE]

If we make the playoffs or just barely miss out -- give up the pick this year.

 

[Micklebot]

I'd delay, there's always the chance the league could amend the punishment, so hold out hope for that. We should be getting better year to year to so the pick should slide back.

 

[Senscore]

Would be a much easier decision if we just make the conference finals.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

If we make the playoffs, they absolutely should forfeit the pick this year.

Assuming any two drafts are of similar strength and tiers, a pick one year earlier is more valuable, but I don't think that value justifies the potential downside.

They don't need not having our first looming over the team during any draft, let alone the Gavin McKenna draft. The odds of us getting a top 2 pick in the 2026 draft are not high, even if we are bad, but the negative marketing potential of the fans even thinking it is possible let alone it happening doesn't justify getting a 1st round talent one year earlier.

The other factor is that they aren't allowed to wait and see how the draft plays out. They have to give up their pick before the draft. So even if they have someone in their top 5 or 10 who slips to 16-32, like Cole Beaudoin was rumored to be last year, they can't decide at the last minute to keep it based on a top 10 talent falling to them at 20.

With the Brady pick, it was conditional, so Dorion had up until Montreal picked to decide if he could keep it. This made it a lot easier for Dorion to play, because if Brady was taken in the top 3 and they didn't have any of the other prospects as highly rated as Brady (who they apparently had above everybody but Hughes the next year), Dorion could have given up the pick. Luckily, Brady was there at 4, and say what you want about Dorion getting them into that mess, he and Mann made a very difficult franchise altering choice to keep the pick.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I'd probably just forfeit it if we make the playoffs this year. There's always a chance for injuries to derail a season.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

If we make the playoffs, they absolutely should forfeit the pick this year.

Assuming any two drafts are of similar strength and tiers, a pick one year earlier is more valuable, but I don't think that value justifies the potential downside.

They don't need not having our first looming over the team during any draft, let alone the Gavin McKenna draft. The odds of us getting a top 2 pick in the 2026 draft are not high, even if we are bad, but the negative marketing potential of the fans even thinking it is possible let alone it happening doesn't justify getting a 1st round talent one year earlier.

The other factor is that they aren't allowed to wait and see how the draft plays out. They have to give up their pick before the draft. So even if they have someone in their top 5 or 10 who slips to 16-32, like Cole Beaudoin was rumored to be last year, they can't decide at the last minute to keep it based on a top 10 talent falling to them at 20.

With the Brady pick, it was conditional, so Dorion had up until Montreal picked to decide if he could keep it. This made it a lot easier for Dorion to play, because if Brady was taken in the top 3 and they didn't have any of the other prospects as highly rated as Brady (who they apparently had above everybody but Hughes the next year), Dorion could have given up the pick. Luckily, Brady was there at 4, and say what you want about Dorion getting them into that mess, he and Mann made a very difficult franchise altering choice to keep the pick.

Yeah Tkachuk > Byram easily. In fact out of Hughes and Dahlin, who'd you take over Brady in 2018?

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Yeah Tkachuk > Byram easily. In fact out of Hughes and Dahlin, who'd you take over Brady in 2018?

At the time, it was more of a controversial statement to have Brady ahead of everybody (including Kakko) except for Hughes. Despite Dorion trying his best to power up the team by adding Mikkael Boedker, I think the expectation was that the Senators were going to stink and probably get a similar prospect to Brady, but that they risked losing out on a franchise center in Hughes.

Keep in mind, this was before we had the security of knowing we had Stutzle, and before people knew what Brady would become. I'm sure there were people here calling him a Curtis Lazar, Colin White, Shane Boewers picks, even know those three players are not exactly alike and neither is Brady.

Maybe they just got lucky, but they made the right choice in what was a difficult franchise altering decision.

 

[Loach]

Oooohhhh Shit! Can we have Dorion do it? Please for all that's holy can he do it?!

Dumbass walks up to the mic.

"In the 2025 Draft, the Ottawa Senators are proud to forfeit the 16th overall pick."

Then he slinks off to Habs Gatineau Radio.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The thing is beyond the fact that there's a generational talent and next years draft is deeper (plus we don't have our 2nd rounder), we don't know for sure what happens if regression happens or if we suffer a massive amount of injuries. We can be more talented both on paper and ice and still finish worse through things we can't control next year.

Drafting 20-32 doesn't get you McKenna, even if won lottery.

 

[bicboi64]

Delay it till next year unless we make the playoffs and win a round or two

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I'd delay, there's always the chance the league could amend the punishment, so hold out hope for that. We should be getting better year to year to so the pick should slide back.

An amendment would just be giving us the 32nd pick, like with NJ. If we make the playoffs this year and get hit with a wave of injuries next year, that could be a problem.

 

[Micklebot]

An amendment would just be giving us the 32nd pick, like with NJ. If we make the playoffs this year and get hit with a wave of injuries next year, that could be a problem.

I am not going to bet on us getting a lottery pick next year, that seems inherently defeatist.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

A big thing to consider is how this management team claimed that one of the requests the players had was for the chaos around the team to be stopped.

In terms of fans and media, losing an unprotected draft pick would create a lot of chaos. It would be a distraction to have it be a perpetual story that the Senators could give up the McKenna pick. I don't think giving it up this year has to be spun as the team not being confident. It could be presented as the team putting a negative thing behind them. If they make the playoffs, it would be borderline symbolic to give up the pick this year since it is one of the last visible consequences of the Dorion/Melnyk era.

If this is a top 10 pick, then it becomes a lot more of a compelling discussion because the pick isn't good enough to be a lock to keep, but giving it up is still passing on the chance to get a player who could be a star for us with no guarantees that we will pick as high. For a mid-round pick, unless they see this as the 2015 draft in terms of almost having 20 top 10 talents, it doesn't make sense to keep.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

A big thing to consider is how this management team claimed that one of the requests the players had was for the chaos around the team to be stopped.

In terms of fans and media, losing an unprotected draft pick would create a lot of chaos. It would be a distraction to have it be a perpetual story that the Senators could give up the McKenna pick. I don't think giving it up this year has to be spun as the team not being confident. It could be presented as the team putting a negative thing behind them. If they make the playoffs, it would be borderline symbolic to give up the pick this year since it is one of the last visible consequences of the Dorion/Melnyk era.

If this is a top 10 pick, then it becomes a lot more of a compelling discussion because the pick isn't good enough to be a lock to keep, but giving it up is still passing on the chance to get a player who could be a star for us with no guarantees that we will pick as high. For a mid-round pick, unless they see this as the 2015 draft in terms of almost having 20 top 10 talents, it doesn't make sense to keep.

and 2025 draft isn't going to be as deep as 2026 by the looks of it. A 16th overall could very well be worth less than a 22nd overall next year.

 

[Boud]

I’d forfeit next year regardless, personally. Even if we make the playoffs the pick will be middle of the first round.

Next year I think with Norris being more comfortable, the boys having more confidence, better understanding of coaching system, Ullmark settling in Ottawa, Yakemchuk coming over, another year of experience for Stutzle, Sanderson, Pinto, Ostapchuk, Greig, etc…

I think we have a better team next season personally and I would keep this year’s pick.

 

[darude]

I'd forefeit this year's pick barring a massive backslide in the rest of the season.

We aren't getting off the hook and what we're likely to get in the first round this year is by all accounts less than we'd get next year slightly later.

If we could for sure see we're headed for playoffs in consecutive years, doing better next year, then yeah you wait. You can't bank on that though and delaying the pain might only make it worse.