Will Ovechkin break Gretzky's record in 1,487 games?

[Xspyrit]

But you can also say that the league changed the PP rules to limit Gretzky's goal scoring, and allowed clutch and grab to take over in the second half of his career, while they made multiple changes in efforts to increase goal scoring during Ovechkin's era.

That's why you really can only compare the numbers as they are and not play what if. If Ovi gets it, he gets it, no asterisks. Every player has unique challenges and advantages during their own era.

I guarantee you that Gretzky wouldn't score many of his goals on me, a modern amateur goalie. Ovechkin would though and then some. Why? Simply because I'm much bigger than Darren Pang, my equipment is much bigger, I use the butterfly, etc

You can downplay the "what ifs" as much as you want but Gretzky is the best playmaker in history, not the best goal scorer. Many other players, like Ovie, were better goal scorers than him. Gretzky played in the most prolific era of NHL hockey, that's the difference.

Ovechkin didn't have any advantage, he actually lost his rookie year due to a lockout, then 34 games due to another lockout, then 39 games due to a pandemic etc. Gretzky only lost 34 games due to a lockout as well.

 

[Strangle]

I do. Goalies didn't look like Stay-Puft marshmallow men in the 80s, and were no where near as technically sound as today. Say what you will, but Ovechkin, even if it takes him longer, has had a harder road to reach 894. Far less support compared to the 80s Oilers offense as well.

What do you mean ‘far less support’?

I thought Gretzky played with plumbers and used car salesmen who were smoking on the bench while Ovechkin is surrounded by the top conditioned athletes of the new millennium with modern nutrition and training and steroids?

Also, goalies were actually much better in the 80’s than they are in 2025. Goalies can’t react anymore and all play the same way, leaving the same open spots in the net over and over again.

Goalies don’t move anymore, they just set and forget and hope the puck hits them. Shooters all know exactly where the puck needs to go because the goalies are easily predictable today.

Goalies aren’t like hasek or Roy anymore. Hell there isn’t even 3 bill ranford’s in the league today.

Goalies are at their lowest talent level in the history of the league today

 

[BallardEra]

Also, goalies were actually much better in the 80’s than they are in 2025.

Statistically, the 1980s had the worst save percentages and GAA ever seen in the NHL:

NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest NHL League Averages including shots, saves, goal averages and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

 

[AD1066]

Gretzky being responsible for creating a higher scoring environment doesn’t make sense mathematically either considering the size of the league.

Let’s take the 1981-82 season when Gretzky scored 92 goals. The Oilers led the league in GF with 417 goals in 80 games (5.21 goals/game). Second highest were the Islanders with 385 goals (4.81 goals/game).

The NHL had an all-time high 4.01 goals per game (post WW2). Even if you subtracted the Oilers entirely as if they never existed (417 GF and 295 GA), you would still have an average of 3.76 goals/game.

This is significantly higher than the highest average seen during Ovechkin’s career (3.14 goals/game in 2022-23), or any of the seasons between 1970 and 1979.

Beat me to it. The "wooden sticks and heavy skates" argument never held water because we have the data from thousands of games from that era and know that night in and night out, the puck went in the net more often, even if you remove the greatest stars from that era.

Advances in goaltending equipment and techniques since then have outweighed the impact of better player equipment and it's pretty easy to intuit why.

 

[Strangle]

Statistically, the 1980s had the worst save percentages and GAA ever seen in the NHL:

NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest NHL League Averages including shots, saves, goal averages and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

There is a lot more to unpack there than just assuming it means the goalies weren’t better in the 80’s.

But have a look at how those percentages have been cratering over the last few years as well

 

[AD1066]

What do you mean ‘far less support’?

I thought Gretzky played with plumbers and used car salesmen who were smoking on the bench while Ovechkin is surrounded by the top conditioned athletes of the new millennium with modern nutrition and training and steroids?

Also, goalies were actually much better in the 80’s than they are in 2025. Goalies can’t react anymore and all play the same way, leaving the same open spots in the net over and over again.

Goalies don’t move anymore, they just set and forget and hope the puck hits them. Shooters all know exactly where the puck needs to go because the goalies are easily predictable today.

Goalies aren’t like hasek or Roy anymore. Hell there isn’t even 3 bill ranford’s in the league today.

Goalies are at their lowest talent level in the history of the league today

Regardless of what you believe the talent of current goalies to be, they're stopping pucks with greater frequency than the goaltenders of the 80s, so the end result is that it's more difficult to score.

You're arguing against basic algebra.

 

[BallardEra]

There is a lot more to unpack there than just assuming it means the goalies weren’t better in the 80’s.

But have a look at how those percentages have been cratering over the last few years as well

The best SV% and GAA for any season in the 1980s was .881 and 3.56

The worst SV% and GAA that Ovechkin has ever seen for one season is .900 and 2.97.

 

[Xspyrit]

There is a lot more to unpack there than just assuming it means the goalies weren’t better in the 80’s.

But have a look at how those percentages have been cratering over the last few years as well

Simply because the overall talent in today's league is much much higher than it was back then... Not sure why it has to be explained, there's really some people who don't realize these things?

I mean, more people from more countries are actively trying to become NHL players and there's a lot of money to make with this. DUH

Today's goalies are so much better it's not even funny.

 

[Strangle]

The best SV% and GAA for any season in the 1980s was .881 and 3.56

The worst SV% and GAA that Ovechkin has ever seen for one season is .900 and 2.97.

That’s just because being a goalie is a lot easier now than it used to be.

Has nothing to do with talent.

If you suddenly allowed MLB players to play with aluminum bats, home runs would go up. Doesn’t mean the players are better lol

Or in chess, to say that Bobby Fischer had a lower ELO than some modern grandmasters must mean that Fischer isn’t the goat chess grandmaster. But using computers and chess engines makes being a grandmaster a lot easier today and doesn’t really comment a lot on talent disparity at all.

Same with goaltending. Goalies had to be 25% better than the goalies are today to hit a .880 sv%

Throw these goalies into the 80’s and they wouldn’t sniff .800 flat. They wouldn’t be able to even play in the league

 

[Video Nasty]

The right question which GPG is higher
894 in 1487
or
894 in 1486 (or less)
If Ovechkin decides to quit after scoring 894 in 1486 games, his GPG would be higher.

Yeah, just ignore quickest to milestones when they don’t fit your narrative. Ultimately, it’s okay. Ovechkin will have the record and he’ll be the quickest to 895 and beyond by default, but it’s a valid thing for someone to point out. Not that hard to acknowledge both will be true, should Ovechkin not score his 894th in 1478 games or fewer.

 

[Midnight Judges]

That’s just because being a goalie is a lot easier now than it used to be.

Has nothing to do with talent.

If you suddenly allowed MLB players to play with aluminum bats, home runs would go up. Doesn’t mean the players are better lol

Or in chess, to say that Bobby Fischer had a lower ELO than some modern grandmasters must mean that Fischer isn’t the goat chess grandmaster. But using computers and chess engines makes being a grandmaster a lot easier today and doesn’t really comment a lot on talent disparity at all.

Same with goaltending. Goalies had to be 25% better than the goalies are today to hit a .880 sv%

Throw these goalies into the 80’s and they wouldn’t sniff .800 flat. They wouldn’t be able to even play in the league

But again, none of that changes the fact that it is more difficult to score goals in the modern NHL.

 

[Randyne]

Yeah, just ignore quickest to milestones when they don’t fit your narrative.

How higher GPG is more narrative than excluding inconvinient games?
Let's simplify
Player A scores 10 goals in the first game then scores 0 goals in 19 games. GPG .500
Player B scores 10 goals in 19 games. GPG .526
Let them play 1000 games.
Player A =500 goals
Player B =526 goals
Player B > Player A

 

[Hugh Mungus]

That’s just because being a goalie is a lot easier now than it used to be.

Has nothing to do with talent.

If you suddenly allowed MLB players to play with aluminum bats, home runs would go up. Doesn’t mean the players are better lol

Or in chess, to say that Bobby Fischer had a lower ELO than some modern grandmasters must mean that Fischer isn’t the goat chess grandmaster. But using computers and chess engines makes being a grandmaster a lot easier today and doesn’t really comment a lot on talent disparity at all.

Same with goaltending. Goalies had to be 25% better than the goalies are today to hit a .880 sv%

Throw these goalies into the 80’s and they wouldn’t sniff .800 flat. They wouldn’t be able to even play in the league

You're really saying that if we threw today's goalies into the 80s they wouldn't be able to play? That's absolutely ridiculous. The amount of unscreened clappers from the blue line that goalies in the 80s let in regularly are routine saves in today's nhl.

This thread really makes me wonder if older hockey fans even watch the game anymore.

 

[Golden_Jet]

You're really saying that if we threw today's goalies into the 80s they wouldn't be able to play? That's absolutely ridiculous. The amount of unscreened clappers from the blue line that goalies in the 80s let in regularly are routine saves in today's nhl.

This thread really makes me wonder if older hockey fans even watch the game anymore.

Ya goalie equipment is so much bigger these days, and that’s even after shrinking goalie equipment.

 

[Toby91ca]

The right question which GPG is higher
894 in 1487
or
894 in 1486 (or less)
If Ovechkin decides to quit after scoring 894 in 1486 games, his GPG would be higher.

But that isn’t what people have turned a bit to. People have been looking at the likelihood of OV breaking the record and as he’s gotten closer, people are now looking at games and wondering if he can get there in the same or less games. GPG is an entirely different question and that record won’t be held by either OV or Gretzky. If OV gets to 894 in 1,486 games, he wouldn’t have gotten there quicker than Gretzky, that’s the point some are trying to make. If he gets to 895 in 1,487 games then that’s a data point and then if he gets to 895 in some number of games past that, it then becomes the GPG discussion

 

[Golden_Jet]

But that isn’t what people have turned a bit to. People have been looking at the likelihood of OV breaking the record and as he’s gotten closer, people are now looking at games and wondering if he can get there in the same or less games. GPG is an entirely different question and that record won’t be held by either OV or Gretzky. If OV gets to 894 in 1,486 games, he wouldn’t have gotten there quicker than Gretzky, that’s the point some are trying to make. If he gets to 895 in 1,487 games then that’s a data point and then if he gets to 895 in some number of games past that, it then becomes the GPG discussion

Won’t make a difference for most, when goalscoring was higher in Gretzky’s days.

 

[Randyne]

If OV gets to 894 in 1,486 games, he wouldn’t have gotten there quicker than Gretzky, that’s the point some are trying to make.

That point is wrong, Gretzky scored 894 goals in 1487 games played.
Even if he scored all those 894 goals in day one and then played 1486 games.
It's still 894 in 1487 games played.

 

[Toby91ca]

How higher GPG is more narrative than excluding inconvinient games?
Let's simplify
Player A scores 10 goals in the first game then scores 0 goals in 19 games. GPG .500
Player B scores 10 goals in 19 games. GPG .526
Let them play 1000 games.
Player A =500 goals
Player B =526 goals
Player B > Player A

I have no idea what you are trying to illustrate here with the simplification, but using your data, if the question was “who got to 10 goals faster?” The answer is pretty obvious.

 

[Randyne]

I have no idea what you are trying to illustrate here with the simplification, but using your data, if the question was “who got to 10 goals faster?” The answer is pretty obvious.

OP's 1487 gp is the right and only choice.

 

[Jets4Life]

If Ovechkin had to wear 30 pounds skates, had wooden sticks and didn't have the luxury of no 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 overtime he would be even harder to reach those Gretzky lofty totals. Your really off base there bro.

The virtually non-existent defensive systems and the fact that goalies averaged well under 0.890% saving percentage during the 80s, negates this.
In fact, goals per game from 1979-93, was over 7.0 and at times, was pretty much at 8.0 goals per game. Throughout the 21st century, goals per game only recently has risen above 6.0, and at times, was closer to 5.5.

If Ovechkin had played from 1979-99, he would have certainly hit 1,000+ goals, when his stats are adjusted, when we factor in percentage of goals both players score, compared to the number of average goals per game. Incidentally, if Gretzky played from 2005-25, I am certain he would finished his career at about 700.

 

[Toby91ca]

That point is wrong, Gretzky scored 894 goals in 1487 games played.
Even if he scored all those 894 goals in day one and then played 1486 games.
It's still 894 still in 1487 games played.

What? If the question is “who got to 894 in less games” OV needs to do it in less than 1,479 games…why is this even debated? I totally get the career GPG measure, but that’s a completely different question. If OV scores 894 in game 1,482, he’s got the better GPG, career stat….for the time being…could decrease over the remaining games he plays…however, he would have hit 894 in more games played.

If people want to then discuss scoring in 89’s vs now, that’s fair, but again, completely different point.

OP's 1487 gp is the right and only choice.

To what question?

 

[Randyne]

To what question?

To the question how many goals Gretzky scored during his 1487 games career (not 1479).
Excluding his zero goal games is a nonsense.

 

[Toby91ca]

To the question how many goals Gretzky scored during his 1487 games career (not 1479).
Excluding his zero goal games is a nonsense.

What? If the question is “how many goals did Gretzky score during his 1,487 game career”, the answer is 894. Again, what is the question where the only answer can be 1,487 games? There are all sorts of factually correct answers to different questions and all sorts of more subjective based responses to other questions where there is really no factually based answer. If the basic question is “who scored 894 goals faster” Gretzky did it in 1,479 games…period, OV would need to do it faster than that. There are certainly other questions and data we can look at…so that’s why I’m wondering what question you are referencing as 1,487 being the only number anyone can consider.

 

[Jets4Life]

Crazy part of the chase is how Ovechkin has had to catch Gretzky on the back end of his career.

From the start of careers until age 29 season:

For Gretzky:

706 goals in 895 games for 64.7 goals pace over 82 games


For Ovechkin:

475 goals in 760 games for 51.3 goals pace over 82 games


From age 30 and on until the end of his career, Gretzky scored 188 goals in 592 games.

26.0 goal pace over 82 games.

Since Ovechkin's 30th birthday, he's scored 397 goals in 689 games.

47.3 goal pace over 82 games.

This is actually not surprising, considering how many goals those Oilers teams scored during the 80s. They remain the only team in history to score over 400 goals in one season, and it happened 5 times! Goal scoring has risen to over 6 goals a game, for the first time since the mid 90s, compared to roughly 5.5 goals per game when Ovechkin was in his 20s.

Admittingly, Gretzky became more of a play maker, by his mid 20s.