If any team stops doing the things they're really good at, they're likely to lose.
Blue Jays Discussion: Would rather get punched in May than knocked out in October - ALCS bound!
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If any team stops doing the things they're really good at, they're likely to lose.
Interesting. Just listening to an interview with Gibbons on MLB network and apparently, to be able to activate Liriano in game 2 or later, they need to give him a slot on the ALCS roster and play shorthanded until they can activate him. They can't carry someone else and flip them out for Liriano.
Patmac40
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inthe6ix
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I agree - Texas was not aggressive enough on the basepads when they did make it on and it cost them.
If Cleveland has the horses, they should use them and take the bases and play small ball to win this series.
We're going to live and die by the long ball as long as we keep seeing guys like JB swing for the fences with men on 1st and 2nd with no outs and he's not even trying at all to put a bunt down.
Same thing goes for our guys - we gotta be more aggressive on the pads when we have guys like KP, Zeke and Travis on first. At least to take yourself out of the DP once and a while.
LaCarriere
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Well it's not really about Jose putting a bunt down, especially in the situation you described (1st and 2nd and no out). Jose, Edwin, Donaldson, Tulto, etc probably shouldn't ever be laying a bunt down. I probably wouldn't even want JB to bunt if it was a tie game in the bottom of the 9th with no out and a runner on third. He's more likely to win the game with a sac fly, home run or base hit then a squeeze play.
In your situation, trading an out to possibly move runners up to 2nd and 3rd given Jose's power, position in the order and lack of skill/experience with bunting is kind of silly. He's better off swinging, just maybe not for the fences. Solid contact in play would be more effective, but we know he likes to swing for the fences / elevate the ball.
Loosie
The Eternal Optimist
I think it will all depend on Liriano then. From everything I've read/heard he says he's feeling fine and ready to go, but of course you never know with concussions.
Maybe they roll the dice and go shorthanded in the pen for game 1 so they can have Pompey on the roster.
inthe6ix
Registered User
You're talking two different situations. I would not expect for JB to lay a bunt down with a man on 3rd with no outs either. These guys are pro ball players who should know how to at least attempt a bunt instead of swinging for the fences and playing hero ball when the HR's aren't coming.
Yeah the sticks are hot right now, but it seems asking them to cut down on their swings to advance a runner is like pulling teeth.
How many hard swings have resulted in bats flying into the seats these past couple of weeks?
Hero ball at its finest.
LaCarriere
Registered User
I doubt Pompey is on the roster.
His use as a pinch runner is really limited to a few specific scenarios, mainly in tie / 1 run game in late innings, and that's assuming there's a player low in the order that gets on base who it makes sense to sub out for Pompey. That might happen once in the series if the Jays are lucky? Liriano could be used in that same high leverage scenario, or be called on to go 2+ innings if a starter falters, and the chances of getting Liriano into the series 2,3 or even 4 times if the series goes to 7 games is much higher.
lebdafor norris
sleepy
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-truth-about-bunting/
"The frequent bunters bunted the ball fair 49.5% of the time. The infrequent bunters bunted the ball fair 46.1% of the time."
Bunting isn't as easy and automatic as some may think and with JB's ability to get on base, I think the team would be better off if he swings/take pitches than for him to lay down a bunt.
LaCarriere
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Depending on the score, if Bautista is batting cleanup with runners on first and second with no out, and even if he successfully moves the runners up with a bunt, then you have Martin up with first base open, and Tulo batting after.
If I'm Francona then I take my chances and put Martin on, and go for a double play with Tulo batting, who's hit into a fairly high number (14) this year.
Kurtz
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That could explain some of it...but he also threw out 44% of runners with our staff last year.
I know we had a lot of turnover among our pitchers from last year, but still, 44% to 15% can't be all attributed to that.
For example, Sanchez and Estrada are two starters who were with us all year last year. Combined, they gave up 11 stolen bases, while 12 runners were thrown out while they pitched.
This year, the two have given up 24 stolen bases with only 3 runners thrown out.
The difference is too drastic to be attributed to a small sample size.
Loosie
The Eternal Optimist
One? Or did I miss another one. And then Edwin smacked it out of the park the next swing.
I'll never understand why people would want the likes of our power hitters to bunt. What other teams has their power hitters bunt?
lebdafor norris
sleepy
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Interesting read, still I wonder why baserunners aren't running on the Jays pitchers more often despite this collective disadvantage of the Jays' pitching staff. The article pointed out that Martin's now underserved reputation of throwing out runners might be a factor, hopefully that "reputation" holds up till the end of the postseason.
LaCarriere
Registered User
Exactly.
In the situation of Bautista up with runners on first and second, you have up to 3 chances where a single is probably going to score a run, a double could score two (or at least 1 with another runner stopped at 3rd), and a homerun scores 3. If you let Bautista swing and he strikes / flies out, you still have Martin and Tulo up who both have HR / double power.
The only way in that scenario where you don't get 3 chances to score with Bautista, Martin and Tulo batting, is if somebody (Bautista / Martin) hits into a double play, and Bautista (even in a down year) is by far the most productive hitter out of the 3 with an OPS+ of 117 (compared to Tulo's 101 and Martin's 96).
Why would you take the bat out of the best hitter of the 3 and give up an out in the process? I'd rather take my chances with 1 runner in scoring position with 3 outs to go and a 117 OPS batter, than two runners in scoring position with 1 out and two league average batters up to bat.
Like I said previously, the best way of countering that would simply be to walk Martin (who has no speed) after Jose bunts, and pitch down to Tulo who's typically hit into a fairly high number of double plays every year (around 14-20).
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zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
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I still doubt baserunning will decide this series.
This series comes down to whether the jays take advantage of Bauer/Tomlin/Clevenger or not, imo. That's the bottom line.
If they get to Kluber too, then it might be over quick.
Loosie
The Eternal Optimist
Pillar already broke our new Statscast toy this year:
I guess we can truly say that Pillar has been "off the charts"
Thank you...I'll be here all night.
ACC1224
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LaCarriere
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My guess without spending too much time looking into it, is that it was a combination of teams being a lot more selective in when they run on martin, and the changeover in Jays starters, many of whom are slow to the plate.
Like the fangraphs article points out, the pitcher's speed to the plate has a lot to do if a catcher is successful in throwing out runners, an extra .2-.5 of a second is huge on stolen bases that are typically bang-bang plays.
If teams were being more selective, combined with a lower average time to the plate, that could explain the huge 44% to 15% dropoff in throwing out runners for Martin.
Loosie
The Eternal Optimist
Zeke has the short form tweet, here's the article
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-announce-starting-rotation-alcs/
Estrada, Happ, Stroman, Sanchez.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-announce-starting-rotation-alcs/
Estrada, Happ, Stroman, Sanchez.
Acekicker123
Registered User
Kinda hoping they go down to 7 relievers and grab Pompey for this series but I don't expect it.
BertCorbeau
F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
Sets up Estrada for game 5, Happ for game 6, and Stroman for game 7 with the option to have Sanchez out of the pen.
I like it.
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