Would Ovechkin get 70 goals if he didn't get injured?

[PaulD]

He's never hit 70 before. But scoring is easier these days. So maybe.

 

[Mick Riddleton]

Jinx thread, now he will get hurt again. Its like saying shut out before the game is over. Some things are better left unsaid till its over.

 

[TheBig08]

hes on pace for 55 goals in 66 games right now, if he were to get 60 that's still really good especially at 39 years old. no one else is like him.

 

[Calderon]

The propability for a 70+ goal season for a 39-year-old Ovi approaches zero. But 50 goals would've been very doable with the hot start he had before the injury. Now he's back and hasn't missed a beat. If he pots another 50 goal season while playing 66 games tops at his age I will be astonished. Words will be hard to come by for such a feat. I'm fully expecting the goal rate to drop but Ovi just keeps delivering. This race is epic!

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Just saying he has continued to play at the same level he was before he got injured. So if he didn't get injured we couldn't say he wouldn't wouldn't have stayed hot and hit 70.

If he was 29 instead of 39, yes I could see that. There’s so much hockey to be played still, and I know opposing teams will try their absolute hardest to shut him down when he’s just a few goals away.

Although he is the best, I prefer placing reasonable expectations. Of course he finds a way to shatter them all the time, but 70 goals at his age seems improbable.

 

[TheBig08]

If he was 29 instead of 39, yes I could see that. There’s so much hockey to be played still, and I know opposing teams will try their absolute hardest to shut him down when he’s just a few goals away.

Although he is the best, I prefer placing reasonable expectations. Of course he finds a way to shatter them all the time, but 70 goals at his age seems improbable.

not saying he would do it but there would have been a strong chance, he has continued to play at the same level he was before he got injured. it was only 16 games so his play probably wouldn't have fallen off much.

The propability for a 70+ goal season for a 39-year-old Ovi approaches zero. But 50 goals would've been very doable with the hot start he had before the injury. Now he's back and hasn't missed a beat. If he pots another 50 goal season while playing 66 games tops at his age I will be astonished. Words will be hard to come by for such a feat. I'm fully expecting the goal rate to drop but Ovi just keeps delivering. This race is epic!

we will be able to tell once he finishes the season then we will see if he will fall off or not if he doesn't it will be safe to assume if he didn't miss the 16 games he would have got 70 or close to it

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Based on the planets and the gnomes in my head, yes.

 

[VaporTrail]

He would have e
90

 

[Kennedys]

Nope, he had a stupid high shooting percent when he got IR'd

Ah ! the unsustainable SH% argument. What about Sam Reinhart 24.2% over 2 seasons and 122 games ? Some players are just good at scoring goals

 

[LevelingSolo]

He's never done that before and even in a higher scoring NHL now, I fail to see him doing that at age 39

50 was absolutely doable though (may actually still be on pace)

 

[TheBig08]

He's never done that before and even in a higher scoring NHL now, I fail to see him doing that at age 39

50 was absolutely doable though (may actually still be on pace)

Just saying he has continued to play at the same level he was before he got injured. So if he didn't get injured we couldn't say he wouldn't wouldn't have stayed hot and hit 70.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

How many of the 70 would be empty netters?

 

[Ghost of Murph]

How many of the 70 would be empty netters?

If he were MacKinnon, 35.

 

[McFlash97]

OVs greatness is not his peak goal output in a season. It's his durability and consistency. There are players who could easily surpass his single season totals, but they will never be able to surpass his durability in doing it over and over again for as long as he has. OV ain't getting 70.

 

[Tachycineta]

I am 8 days older than he is and I'd like to say that we are still on the upswing and he is saving 70 for his 40 year old season.

Seriously though, I feel lucky to still get to watch him and appreciate what he is doing at 39. Amazing.

 

[TheBig08]

How many of the 70 would be empty netters?

not that many he hasn't had that many empty netters this season

 

[Calderon]

OVs greatness is not his peak goal output in a season. It's his durability and consistency. There are players who could easily surpass his single season totals, but they will never be able to surpass his durability in doing it over and over again for as long as he has. OV ain't getting 70.

His 65 goal peak is supposedly still like a top 3 adjusted goal scoring season but I do agree in principal, would've hoped to see at least another 60+ goal campaign from him in his peak for a better standing against other greatest goal scorers.

As for players who could easily surpass his single season totals I'm not sure if any active players can make that claim. A healthy Matthews probably the only one in a perfect season.

 

[Offtheboard412]

His 65 goal peak is supposedly still like a top 3 adjusted goal scoring season but I do agree in principal, would've hoped to see at least another 60+ goal campaign from him in his peak for a better standing against other greatest goal scorers.

As for players who could easily surpass his single season totals I'm not sure if any active players can make that claim. A healthy Matthews probably the only one in a perfect season.

I think if you put 2012-2018 Ovechkin in today's league he hits 60 at least once in that stretch. Hell he was on pace for 57 before the COVID shutdown.

 

[Sky04]

Thats makes zero sense. At all. Scoring goals is what Ov does. Im fact he is about to become the very best at it in the entire history of hockey. And here you are talking about him playing above their skill level????

It does make sense calm your panties, he was on pace for over 70 goals which he had never done before in his career so yes it's above his skill level.

 

[Randyne]

It does make sense calm your panties, he was on pace for over 70 goals which he had never done before in his career so yes it's above his skill level.

calm panties yourself. Ovechkin has #2 all-time adjusted season. Even if he scored 70 w/o injury, it wouldn't be his best goalscoring season adjusted.
Young Ovi would tear this league apart with multiple top ppg and gpg seasons in a row.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Yeah seems likely he'd have his best ever goal scoring season at the prime age of 39

It's a much easier scoring environment than during his prime. I think prime Ovi could have hit 75+ in today's league.

 

[BallardEra]

It's a much easier scoring environment than during his prime. I think prime Ovi could have hit 75+ in today's league.

Today's game:

GAA: 2.82
SV%: .900
GPG: 3.03

2007/08 when Ovechkin scored 65:

GAA: 2 61
SV%: .909
GPG: 2.72

 

[AvroArrow]

Probably not, he's the greatest goal scorer of all time in my eyes but he's out of his prime. Matthews in his prime scored 69 last year, OV is almost 40 now, that would be insanely difficult to do at this age and point in his career. Good chance he hits 60 if not injured, 70 is insane.

It's a much easier scoring environment than during his prime. I think prime Ovi could have hit 75+ in today's league.
View attachment 956632

Easily, he hit 65 in a way harder era.

 

[KaraLupin]

Ah ! the unsustainable SH% argument. What about Sam Reinhart 24.2% over 2 seasons and 122 games ? Some players are just good at scoring goals

Ahh yes cherrypick literally the only player in the league with that stat over 1 and half seasons of games played currently. I think you will find even for the best scorers over a 20% rate is an anomaly.

Furthermore, magnified into just Ovechkin, he has never had a season over 20%, and most skaters will have great runs of shots falling in, then some coldish spells, or vice versa, which is why over 82 games you get the average you get.

I would place a bet that Ovie finishes with under 20% by year's end, assuming no more month absences to ensure him an adequate sample size. He is currently taking 4 shots a game, which is roughly on par with his career averages

 

[Midnight Judges]

Highly unlikely.

I don't know why people such a have a hard time with this.

A quarter season pace is much easier to achieve than a half season pace, which is much easier than a full season pace. There are numerous ways of looking at the data and they all point to the same conclusion.

In Ovechkin's case a hot start is nice, but that's all it is. He could also slump just like he did last year. Or he could achieve his late career average from here on out. There's no crystal ball.