Worse spot after game 4 - LA series or Pittsburgh series

[Tawnos]

The mental aspect is the only thing that can throw off the gamblers fallacy aspect of it. An inanimate object (dice) is not deciding things here so if the players think they cant win they wont. But stats over 80+ years do show that 3-0 ends in 4 games 65%+ of the time so that does support things. Once the mental aspect of "oh **** we're done" is conquered the odds swing hard towards a possibility of a comeback.

Winning 4 games in a row in hockey is hard regardless of anything in any case though due to just random bounces and reffing so it's not like I'd be betting on the Rangers in any case at this point.

The number is 62.8%, not 65+. 110 of 177 teams have completed the sweep. And, again, it's not so much a "gambler's fallacy" thing as my belief that all series results only fall into win or loss categories, no matter how many games they were accomplished in.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

The mental aspect is the only thing that can throw off the gamblers fallacy aspect of it. An inanimate object (dice) is not deciding things here so if the players think they cant win they wont. But stats over 80+ years do show that 3-0 ends in 4 games 65%+ of the time so that does support things. Once the mental aspect of "oh **** we're done" is conquered the odds swing hard towards a possibility of a comeback.

Winning 4 games in a row in hockey is hard regardless of anything in any case though due to just random bounces and reffing so it's not like I'd be betting on the Rangers in any case at this point.

It was like when Keith Jones said before game 5 last game "it's very hard to win 3 in a row in Montreal". Maybe so, but at that point we already won 2. We lost badly, but I don't think it was because we couldn't win 3 in a row, but because the Habs didn't want to lose an ECF at home.

 

[Hockey Team]

Right now we have about an 8% chance of a cup.

If we win the next game that goes up to about 20%.

If we win the next 2 it'll go up to about 45%

Statistics.

 

[vladmyir111]

Right now we have about an 8% chance of a cup.

If we win the next game that goes up to about 20%.

If we win the next 2 it'll go up to about 45%

Statistics.

Like I said 3-1 is not 3-0 regardless of how you got there. Winning game 4 is the biggest hurdle by far. It just so happens that aside from that winning 4 hockey games in a row is kind of hard.

 

[vladmyir111]

The number is 62.8%, not 65+. 110 of 177 teams have completed the sweep. And, again, it's not so much a "gambler's fallacy" thing as my belief that all series results only fall into win or loss categories, no matter how many games they were accomplished in.

Which is exactly where gamblers fallacy comes in. When two teams are closely matched (if you believe this at this point) it comes down to a lot of random luck factors. And you cannot assume randomness will go one way or another game to game as shown by the completely utter bs of the first 3 games as well as the magical stopping pucks on the goal-line in this game.

The only real point here is that there is a legitimate chance to win once game 4 is won. Not that all of a sudden there is an awesome chance of winning.

 

[Beacon]

I would rather be at 1-3 having just won a game than 1-3 having just been crushed in 3 games after one unconvincing OT win in Game 1. Definitely easier now than against the Pens.

 

[lolcatz]

The number is 62.8%, not 65+. 110 of 177 teams have completed the sweep. And, again, it's not so much a "gambler's fallacy" thing as my belief that all series results only fall into win or loss categories, no matter how many games they were accomplished in.

Well if you want to believe that, fine, but please refrain from applying that to statistics discussions. Faith/beliefs/voodoo and math don't mix well.

 

[Kokoschka]

I would rather be at 1-3 having just won a game than 1-3 having just been crushed in 3 games after one unconvincing OT win in Game 1. Definitely easier now than against the Pens.

this is a point I thought would be made more often.

 

[Ilovemymum]

Pretty self explanatory. Are we in as deep a hole as in the Pittsburgh series? Do you think we're better off winning game 4 than winning game 1? Or are we in a worse position?

Poll incoming.

Went for better spot. This was everything I hoped for. A really lucky gritty win where Hank saves the day. Most importantly, the hockey God is finally on Our side, and pucks are bouncing our way. We're still rolling four lines. This series is far from over.

 

[Ice Hockey]

Worse now, Kings are much better than the Pens. Girardi and Staal look dreadful, nice to get a win though. Keep it going Friday.

Agreed, except dreadful is an understatement for both of them, especially G. He did have a few good defensive sweeps that undid good scoring chances but my god he's clearly the slowest player on the ice. I mean he's looking slower that Boyle.

 

[CJCNYR]

I am worried the team might just be happy they finally got some puck luck and relieved they won a game.


Also the kings and quick are much better than the pens and Fluery

 

[SixGoalieSystem]

After a good nights sleep, I've reconsidered. We're in a better spot now. We're in the finals!

 

[Cliffy1814]

I also feel like the Rangers and the Kings are better teams on the road. Playing 2 of last 3 in LA is not really much of a disadvantage the way these two teams play.

I also "like" the fact that the Rangers did not play a great game last night. They have periodically mixed in a clunker in these playoffs from time to time. I sort of feel that the clunker was last night and they dodged a bullet.

 

[Fugazy]

Pretty lopsided

 

[Tawnos]

Well if you want to believe that, fine, but please refrain from applying that to statistics discussions. Faith/beliefs/voodoo and math don't mix well.

My statistics are still right though. The same number of teams have won after being down 3-0 as have won being down 3-1 after being down 3-0.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Looking at the quality of play and the fact that it could easily be 3-1 rangers right now and SHOULD be 2-2 the only conclusion is they will win, clearly! Math? Please it's elementary!

 

[NYRangersJets]

Simply having the cup in the building for each of the remaining games (not singular game, I have faith!) will make it much harder.

 

[Hire Sather]

Worst spot vs. LA because the Rangers were thoroughly dominated tonight in comparison to game 4 vs. the Pens.

I would definetly say the team played worse in G4 against the Pens.

Pens dominated that entire game. Rangers played well last night up until the Girardi play. Kings surged and NYR sat back and found a way.

 

[KingWantsCup]

What were the 3 stages of a 3-1 comeback that Pierre said? It was something, then doubt, then fear I think. Whatever it was he was spot on.

Accidentally voted Pit. Grr.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

My statistics are still right though. The same number of teams have won after being down 3-0 as have won being down 3-1 after being down 3-0.

Why are you viewing it like that?

So if somehow we get to Game 7, our chances to win haven't improved because we lost the first 3 and won the next 3? I don't see it like that. You put the games behind you and look forward. What are the odds of us winning down 3-1? That's the relevant statistic at this point.

 

[GAGLine]

That's not how statistics work.

Teams that are swept were also down 3-0 series. Let's say as an example (and to keep it simple) that out of a 100 instances when a team went down 3-0 in a series, 6 teams managed to win. Let's also say there were 15 sweeps.

Statistically six out of 100 teams would come back from being down 3-0 or 6%. Six out of the remaining 85 teams (7%) would come back from being down 3-1.

So what about all the teams that were down 3-1, but never down 3-0 in the series, that went on to win the series? You know, like the Rangers against the Pens.

The problem here is you are trying to determine the odds of the Rangers winning the next 3, while others are saying that the odds of winning 4 in a row haven't changed. You are talking about 2 different things.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Worse spot vs the Pens. The team looked broken after game 4 and we could neither score nor control play.

In this series we could just as well be up 3-1 with the way the games have been played (game 1 & 2 were coin flips, game 3 & 4 were both won by the inferior team). IMO the most likely scenario would probably have the Kings take game 1 & 4, with the Rangers winning game 2 & 3 putting the series at 2-2.

Looking at it without hindsight I'd put the Pens as 60/40 favorites in each of the following games, where I have LA at 55/45 or maybe even less.

Yes LA is a better team than the Penguins, but the Rangers are playing better hockey now than they did in the first 4 games of that series.

 

[GordonGecko]

Worse spot vs the Pens. The team looked broken after game 4 and we could neither score nor control play.

In this series we could just as well be up 3-1 with the way the games have been played (game 1 & 2 were coin flips, game 3 & 4 were both won by the inferior team).

Looking at it without hindsight I'd put the Pens as 60/40 favorites in each of the following games, where I have LA at 55/45 or maybe even less.

Yes LA is a better team than the Penguins, but the Rangers are playing better hockey now than they did in the first 4 games of that series.

That's how I see it and voted too. Down 3-1 vs the Pens the Rangers had no hope or anything to fall back on. They were completely spent after a brutally stupid schedule and no signs of life except a solid game that resulted in a 3rd straight loss. All of a sudden Kreider comes in to give the team some jump and everyone rallies around MSL.

Fast forward 2 series, the Rangers know they can come back 3-1 and they know they should have left LA up 2-0. Same 3-1 deficit, they were in a worse spot against Pittsburgh than they are now against LA

 

[KreiMeARiver*]

the teams that were down 3-1 came off a loss, momentum DOWN

The team that came back from 3-0 and turned it into 3-1 came off a win, momentum UP

make any sense whatsoever??? haha

So we were in a worse situation mentally after PITT.

 

[Raspewtin]

Worse spot vs the Pens. The team looked broken after game 4 and we could neither score nor control play.

In this series we could just as well be up 3-1 with the way the games have been played (game 1 & 2 were coin flips, game 3 & 4 were both won by the inferior team). IMO the most likely scenario would probably have the Kings take game 1 & 4, with the Rangers winning game 2 & 3 putting the series at 2-2.

Looking at it without hindsight I'd put the Pens as 60/40 favorites in each of the following games, where I have LA at 55/45 or maybe even less.

Yes LA is a better team than the Penguins, but the Rangers are playing better hockey now than they did in the first 4 games of that series.

Great post as usual BB.