Willie Mitchell is an example of this. I *think* he put up a decent amount of points in minor league hockey. It was when he was drafted & got "transformed" in the New Jersey/Jacques Lemaire 'bore you to death' style that he developed strong defensive skills.
This is the reason I think that it would be crazy not to move the odds in favor of a guy who scores a bunch vs. the guy who doesn't. Not to declare the question resolved, just to move the odds. True Chris Tanev type players are extremely rare -- ones who manage to be effective despite little offense. After all, the hockey evaluator community has finally come around to the (somewhat obvious) idea that the best way to prevent goals is also to have the puck and be moving it forward. (And similarly, the safest bet in drafting is just taking guys who score a lot because they are likely to just be better players in general).
This too. And in fact I wonder if the main reason why we still see skilled players as "riskier" is a self-fulfilling prophecy of how coaches deploy them. i.e. The "Brannström effect".
This is one of the reasons why I don't really care about international hockey (and won't cheer for the Big Fish teams like Canada). Not enough countries play the game, and a competitive imbalance (i.e. Canadians obsessing over winning 99% of tournaments instead of 95%) just makes this problem worse over the long haul. We're virtually now in a position where only Canada and the U.S. are going to matter. This isn't good.
That's the same for nearly every team sport (and most individual sports). International basketball has a handful of dominant countries (well one come olympic time). Same with baseball. Soccer is likely the anomaly as you still have a handful of perennial powerhouses but there are far more "surprises" tournament to tournament.
Seemed like he failed to correct the horrible amateur drafting staff in Canada during his tenure as GM as well. This is where a good chunk of the later round draft picks could've been used to find 'hidden gems'. Granted, it is always a longshot but our Canadian amateur scouts couldn't find 'hidden gems', only lumps of coal.
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"He looked great in practise so we should draft him".Well, because to do what you need to do from there you really need to know the personality behind the player. Can any of us do that without looking like a f***in loon?
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"He looked great in practise so we should draft him".
This has been discussed for decades. Excluding them isn't going to help the kids get better. They are going to have ups and downs as they build programs in their countries. They need tournaments like this.
Tyler Myers is probably one of the biggest anomaly's the other way. His draft year his scoring was very low. Improved as a 19 year old but to not where one would expect him to score as he has in the NHL. Devon Toews also showed little signs of scoring until his first year in the AHL when he kind of went boom.
Yeah once in a while, the smaller nations will have a little crop of players that come up together. Players can put themselves on the radar for scouts.
Steady dmen bust when they can't handle NHL speed and can't move the puck well enough at that level. Will that happen to Willander? I guess it's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
You should've yell this in Jim Benning's ear when he traded Forsling top 4 D on a Cup winning team for Clenningdingdong (at guy that could *BARELY* handle AHL speed let alone NHL speed).
You are oversimplifying it though. Defensive defensemen bust because they can’t continue to play well as the play gets better. This could be for a myriad of reasons, like poor skating or passing or puck handling or the inability to process the game at a high level. And in fact, I’d say processing ability is the most important, and that’s also the most difficult to assess. Because a guy like Willander skates extremely well at the current level giving him more time to process the game, but he will lose some of this time when he makes the jump to pro hockey and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether he will still sufficiently process the game.
How he traded an 18.5 year old who goes over a PPG at WJ's and playing full time in the SHL is absolutely goofy.
Wasting Ron Delorme, our Ace Swedish Amateur scout, find!
You literally have just described Quinn Hughes at the college level to a tee and how has that worked out? He's 19 years old. You are way overthinking this.
Am I simplifying though? Handling NHL speed is an umbrella term for what you laid out and the other aspect is moving the puck up ice to facilitate transition offense. Watching the way Willander plays, to my eye it appears that he checks all of those boxes. Whether he can make the leap though, I guess we'll find out more this spring.
