Speculation: With the third pick in the 2024 NHL draft the Anaheim Ducks select...(Draft is June 28th @ 4pm PT. ESPN. ESPN+)

[HanSolo]

For me I’d 100% trade down…. If we have 0 interest in Demidov or he gets taken at 2. Maybe to the 5-7, assuming the trade value is there.

The next group is tons of ?
-Lindstrom back injury is pretty rough to use a 3 on
- saliyev seems pretty vanilla for a top 3 pick
- levshunov has questionmarks, but also has a sky high ceiling

A guy like Dickinson/Iginla are prob the safest picks in the top 10(I’d say safer but I think Demidov and levshunov have higher potential/ceiling)

Idk that I see high ceiling on Dickinson, but his floor should be amongst the highest, and he plays a pretty complete game. Iginla seems to do everything good…. And if culture is important, I think he’s a direct fit there, I think he’s a good compliment top line talent.



Buium imo is a pretty safe bet, smart player, good skater, good in both ends… biggest question with him is prob physicality/size.

Well I've mentioned my concerns about Demidov before. The only thing different I could say is while I hold Silayev's play in the KHL in high regard, Demidov's play two levels down raises a lot of questions about how dominant he can be when he starts playing pro Russian hockey and then how well he can transition to the AHL and NHL eventually. Personally I wouldn't look at him as a great pick without attached concerns until around 7th-9th overall.

Lindstrom, yeah. Hearing he's got a herniated disc that young is really troubling. What he could've been if that hadn't happened, I would've been all for taking him at 3 but unless the Ducks are confident he can recoup, I'd stay away.

I already summarized my thoughts on Silayev.

I don't know if I agree that Iginla is a "safe pick" necessarily. Like sure his floor may be depth NHLer but I think he's actually got the biggest wild card potential in this draft class. He progressed a lot in very quick order. Drafting him anywhere, you're banking on his progression rate continuing to carry him through all the way to the top 6 of a good NHL team but there's always that question of how a kid will adapt from the CHL to pro hockey. Late risers can pay off big but they could also be a flash in the pan. I wouldn't be upset if we took him at 3 but if feel a lot more comfortable with it if we were picking between, say, 5-7.

Levshunov I've tried to be fair and get myself excited for the option but I just can't shake this feeling that he's going to disappoint. I certainly don't see the sky high upside you do but only time will tell.

Dickinson and Buium both play a style of hockey that, to me, looks to me to be the most growth conducive to eventually end up #2-3 guys that play the game the right way in today's NHL. I think I like Dickinson's physical stature a little more while I feel Buium has slightly better 200 ft vision and hockey IQ.

All in all there's like four defensemen I'd be varying degrees of okay with. I feel like the forwards on the top end are all projects and hard to...well, project.

 

[tomd]

The problem with moving down is that you've got to find a team (in the right range) who is willing to give up assets to move up. In this type of draft I'm not convinced teams will be willing to do that unless they have a very specific player at 3OA that they must have. I'm sure the Ducks have focused in on 2-3 players they like the most at 3OA. Just make the pick and be done with it.

 

[HanSolo]

Silayev isn't the only shutdown d-man in the top-10. Sam Dickinson is the other shutdown d-man. At the combine, he was listed at 6'3 (6'2.75) and 203 lbs. Dickinson can skate like the wind. His skating prowess was on display at the 2024 Kubota Top Prospects on-ice testing results as Dickinson finished 2nd overall. But Dickinson did show significant signs of improved offense between his D-1 and D+0 seasons, from 9g and 23 points to 18g and 70 points. Not only did Dickinson improve his offense, but his defensive play too, going from +5 to +56 rating. That +56 was best on the team and 2nd best in the OHL, with the top player having a +58 rating.

Yakemchuk has been in the WHL for three seasons and here's his +/- rating for those seasons: -19, -8, and -6. Team high in those respective seasons: +11, +19, and +29. Sure, Yakemchuk's offense has exploded each of the three seasons, but that defense is atrocious - especially when you realize he's 6'3 and 194 lbs in his D+0 season.

Dickinson gets overlooked in with this group of defenseman. He's a shutdown d-man who transformed into a 2-way D that drastically improved his offensive and defensive play. Granted, it's in major juniors, but that track record is there along with his build and speed. Then again, some defensemen cannot improve both sides of the play.

I don't have to say "if" on Dickinson's offense because he's shown he can produce as a shutdown d-man, which makes him a 2-way D-man instead of just a shutdown guy.

As for Lev, I don't think he gets enough credit not only for his jump from Belarussian hockey to USHL to NCAA, but for being a freshman and carrying his NCAA team in scoring and defense. Similar to Dickinson, Lev went from being an OFD to a 2-way D. He owned the worst +/- on his USHL team to team best on his NCAA team and 13th best in the whole of the NCAA. Offensively, Lev actually lead his team in scoring during the regular season for a bit and finished 2nd best by one point on the team. Lev's NCAA team ranked 16th (as well as missing the NCAA tourney) two seasons ago and finished 4th this past season. That reveals how much of an impact Lev had on the team and its success this past year.

I'm opposed to moving down if you're in the top-10. If you have your guy, then grab your guy. Otherwise, there better be a mass overpayment, which usually isn't offered. Former GM Murray often received calls for his top-10 picks in 2021 #3 OA and 2020 #6 OA. He kept the #3 and drafted McTavish, who many disliked and thought was a reach; also kept #6 and drafted Drysdale. This was the same GM who drafted Lindholm 6th OA when some mocks had Lindholm in the teens (MyNHLdraft).

More than fair. Like I said, I'm high on Dickinson after doing more digging.

Agreed on Yakemchuk. I think he's probably going to be less prone to defensive catastrophes compared to Parekh, but I don't want either of them. We all crossed our fingers that Zellweger wouldn't be a defensive zone disaster in the NHL and so far it looks like he's well positioned to at least be decent in his own zone. I don't want to use a top 3 pick on another dice roll. For all we know Parekh or Yakemchuk could put up Makar/Hughes like numbers, but I think it's unlikely, and I don't think it's worth the risk in light of their defensive deficiencies.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

How far can we move up with
Oilers 1st + bruins 2nd or our 3rd

Granted idk that we have much room for another lhd…. Specially if we go Silayev buium or Dickinson

In 2019, the Ducks had a trade in place with the #29 and #39 to move up to #18.

On Tankathon's recent mock iteration, Solberg was the 7th d-man off the board and it was San Jose at #14 who plucked him. That would be a boon for SJ.

The Oiler's 1st + Bruins 2nd/our 3rd wouldn't get much of a jump up in the draft as someone mentioned above. There isn't someone I'd trade up for in the late 20's and it would feel like I gave up too much for so little a gain. There's a bigger gamble of players making the NHL in the late 20's and beyond. Might as well just keep our picks to improve the chances of hitting on a player.

Curious, though, what player would you be targetting in the late 20's (picks 25-30)? Hmmm... if Trevor Connelly falls to 24 or 25, then maybe? Maybe Emery, since his stock has been rising?

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

The problem with moving down is that you've got to find a team (in the right range) who is willing to give up assets to move up. In this type of draft I'm not convinced teams will be willing to do that unless they have a very specific player at 3OA that they must have. I'm sure the Ducks have focused in on 2-3 players they like the most at 3OA. Just make the pick and be done with it.

Realistically they only have to focus on two guys. If the Hawks don't take the Ducks top pick, it's winner for PV. And unless there is a huge tie for the Ducks 2nd best choice (and I'm willing to bet there isn't. I'm sure somebody will be rated above the others.) they should still just take that guy at 3 and call it a day.

These guys trying to twist themselves into pretzels trying to trade down are wasting energy.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Not really sure where this fits (either in this thread or the rumors/roster discussion one.)

I'm thinking out loud here/throwing ideas out here. We all know that it's a copycat league. I assume most of us here know that over Reddit, Facebook, X, etc.

Verbeek wants to build a team that's tough to play against. Unfortunately, I don't see that coming to fruition in quite some time (Unless we draft/sign FAs)

If we want to have a team like Florida who has a crash and bang style/super hard to play against shouldn't we be looking at getting those type of players? Or bring in a coaching staff who employs a high intensity game?

I am not sure our current forward group can handle playoff intensity. We should be putting an emphasis on size if we ought to be successful.

 

[tomd]

Not really sure where this fits (either in this thread or the rumors/roster discussion one.)

I'm thinking out loud here/throwing ideas out here. We all know that it's a copycat league. I assume most of us here know that over Reddit, Facebook, X, etc.

Verbeek wants to build a team that's tough to play against. Unfortunately, I don't see that coming to fruition in quite some time (Unless we draft/sign FAs)

If we want to have a team like Florida who has a crash and bang style/super hard to play against shouldn't we be looking at getting those type of players? Or bring in a coaching staff who employs a high intensity game?

I am not sure our current forward group can handle playoff intensity. We should be putting an emphasis on size if we ought to be successful.

Good points and I think that's why he's drafted Gaucher, Myatovic, Pitre, Warren, Smith, etc. over players that had more skill and talent. I assume he'll continue that trend in this year's draft. Time will tell if that strategy is successful but I agree it's 2-3 years away still.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

More than fair. Like I said, I'm high on Dickinson after doing more digging.

Agreed on Yakemchuk. I think he's probably going to be less prone to defensive catastrophes compared to Parekh, but I don't want either of them. We all crossed our fingers that Zellweger wouldn't be a defensive zone disaster in the NHL and so far it looks like he's well positioned to at least be decent in his own zone. I don't want to use a top 3 pick on another dice roll. For all we know Parekh or Yakemchuk could put up Makar/Hughes like numbers, but I think it's unlikely, and I don't think it's worth the risk in light of their defensive deficiencies.

We nabbed Zellweger in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft. I thought we were going after another high schooler from Shattuck St. Mary's in 6'2 RD Scott Morrow with that pick. (LaCombe went to SSM and we drafted him in the 2nd of the 2019 draft.) Either way, it was going to be an OFD. Zell still has a longer way to go defensively, but he is an offensive find! I'd rather take a chance on a player like Zell in the 2nd round than with a #3 pick overall.

Parekh does have high-end, individual offensive skills that probably is the highest of the top six d-men.

This defensive set kinda reminds me of the 2022 draft. Lots of potential offense in that top five group.

D-men
#2. RD Nemec (2-way D)
#6. RD Jiricekc (2-way D... looks more like an OFD in the pros)
#7. LD Korchinski (OFD)
#10. LD Mintyukov (OFD)
#12. LD Mateychuk (OFD)

The run on shutdown down guys started at #18 with LD Bichsel and ended at #42 with RD Warren.

Nemec was so good offensively in his early teens that he got promoted into the U18s as a 14-year old. It took a while, but he turned himself into a 2-way D in his D+0 season. Nemec has developed well in the pros for the past two seasons. I guess I see Lev following a similar path to Nemec.

Minty looks to be improving his defense faster than Zell. But the latter three OFD's were picked from 7 thru 12th, not #3 OA.

 

[Rasp]

Guess the NHL scout consensus must be wrong about Silayev and fan rankings correct

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Not really sure where this fits (either in this thread or the rumors/roster discussion one.)

I'm thinking out loud here/throwing ideas out here. We all know that it's a copycat league. I assume most of us here know that over Reddit, Facebook, X, etc.

Verbeek wants to build a team that's tough to play against. Unfortunately, I don't see that coming to fruition in quite some time (Unless we draft/sign FAs)

If we want to have a team like Florida who has a crash and bang style/super hard to play against shouldn't we be looking at getting those type of players? Or bring in a coaching staff who employs a high intensity game?

I am not sure our current forward group can handle playoff intensity. We should be putting an emphasis on size if we ought to be successful.

Verbeek has prioritized size in the draft since he became GM. It might take some time for those draftees to reach the NHL level or to compete at a high level at the NHL level. We need more grit to go with that size, though. Currently, we have Mac, but he got too roughed up this past season. PV did trade for Cutter, which brings us to two top-6 forwards who could play that playoff atmosphere game. I think Carlsson can be difficult to play against in a couple more years, when he fills in his big frame. We're hoping that C Gaucher can make the transition to the NHL as he's got that playoff type game in juniors and WJC.

We either need to be tough on the backend or front end, both preferrably. Right now, our only player that looks like he can be on a playoff team and thrive is 6'0 RD Gudas. We're still developing lots of prospects to see what we have, but it's slow rolling, which is expected. We're only going onto year 3 of the reset rebuild.

At pick 3, there are some players that can develop into a player who's difficult to play against.

Long term, our best bet is to draft well and then trade prospects/picks to land playoff type players to add onto our team. PV made such a trade in sending off the smallish Drysdale to acquire a big PF in Cutter Gauthier.

It sucks saying this, but we just have to have patience with all the youths still developing.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Guess the NHL scout consensus must be wrong about Silayev and fan rankings correct

NHL.com just put out an article 2 days ago having him 3rd for defensemen, behind Levshunov and Buium

Edit - graphic is from the 9th.

 

[Trojans86]

Doesn’t Dickinson have a great shot as well? Elite speed, excellent size, excellent defense, great shot rhd. Sounds good to me.

 

[Castle8130]

You guys are taking Yakemchuk

 

[Rasp]

View attachment 882889

NHL.com just put out an article 2 days ago having him 3rd for defensemen, behind Levshunov and Buium

Edit - graphic is from the 9th.

Bob Mackenzie is the only actual NHL scout ranking and he has him 2nd

 

[Ducks DVM]

Bob Mackenzie is the only actual NHL scout ranking and he has him 2nd

As I’ve said elsewhere, how does his yearly draft ranking hold up to the actual draft, and to a 5/10 year redraft? All NHL scouts blow it somewhere in 100% of drafts.

Not saying that he won’t/shouldn’t be drafted. Just saying again that people tend to go with the assessment they like the most and run with it.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Not really sure where this fits (either in this thread or the rumors/roster discussion one.)

I'm thinking out loud here/throwing ideas out here. We all know that it's a copycat league. I assume most of us here know that over Reddit, Facebook, X, etc.

Verbeek wants to build a team that's tough to play against. Unfortunately, I don't see that coming to fruition in quite some time (Unless we draft/sign FAs)

If we want to have a team like Florida who has a crash and bang style/super hard to play against shouldn't we be looking at getting those type of players? Or bring in a coaching staff who employs a high intensity game?

I am not sure our current forward group can handle playoff intensity. We should be putting an emphasis on size if we ought to be successful.

Florida is a realistic style/build of team I think they can achieve. They don't get that style with players like Demidov, Bedard, Gaudreau, Fowler, Drysdale.
Already got Carlsson aka Barkov 2.0, perhaps Cutter will become the Ducks version of Tkatchuk but a bit more like Kesler though. Maybe Zellweger becomes the Ducks version of 70point Montour.

Not the same sport but it this illustrates why you need players like Silayev with intensity and size when the games matter:
From the movie 'The Super', first game Joe Pesci wins as an undersized basketball player but then when they play for '200$' suddenly the other team plays to win and starts using their size against him and playing more physical and intense lol. Pesci gets absolutely steamrolled and thrashed around.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Bob Mackenzie is the only actual NHL scout ranking and he has him 2nd

Someone wrote an article identifying who's been more on par with their rankings/mocks that was shared on here days ago. McKenzie was one of the top guys/entities. Chris Peters (FloHockey) and Cam Robinson (Elite Prospects) were two others. I can't recall the name, but someone on DobberProspects' staff was also on par with the rankings/mocks.

Peters was an NHL scout, but returned to FloHockey.

Believe it or not, but a YouTuber (Draft Dynasty) became an NHL scout. I think Montreal made him a scout, but not sure. I miss his videos.

Pronman is akin to McKenzie, where both talk to NHL scouts and coaches to come up with their rankings/mocks.

Pronman's rankings
Tier 1. ===

1. Celebrini​

Tier 2. ===

2. Lev​

Tier 3. ===

3. Yakemchuk​

4. Silayev​

5. Buium​

But if all you're gonna adhere to is McKenzie, then just say McKenzie instead of NHL scouts.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

So McKenzie is smart when he says McTavish at higher than Eklund but he's not when he's got Silayev higher than Lev.

 

[Rasp]

As I’ve said elsewhere, how does his yearly draft ranking hold up to the actual draft, and to a 5/10 year redraft? All NHL scouts blow it somewhere in 100% of drafts.

Not saying that he won’t/shouldn’t be drafted. Just saying again that people tend to go with the assessment they like the most and run with it.

He has been the most consistently accurate at picking the draft order. 7/10 NHL team scouts would take Silayev top 4 so there must be something there other than him just being big.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Not really sure where this fits (either in this thread or the rumors/roster discussion one.)

I'm thinking out loud here/throwing ideas out here. We all know that it's a copycat league. I assume most of us here know that over Reddit, Facebook, X, etc.

Verbeek wants to build a team that's tough to play against. Unfortunately, I don't see that coming to fruition in quite some time (Unless we draft/sign FAs)

If we want to have a team like Florida who has a crash and bang style/super hard to play against shouldn't we be looking at getting those type of players? Or bring in a coaching staff who employs a high intensity game?

I am not sure our current forward group can handle playoff intensity. We should be putting an emphasis on size if we ought to be successful.

I don't disagree with anything you said, but you can't have everything all at once when you're starting at the bottom. Without skill you're not even in the playoffs. Everybody wants skill and toughness in their players but those guys don't grow on trees. Toughness is easier to acquire via trade/UFA than skill.

PV is looking to build a big strong team. That's already known. Until the skill starts competing for the playoffs it's hard to say how much toughness we lack or where our biggest weakness is. We do have some big/tough guys in the system. Will they develop into legit NHLers? Who knows. But if we start prioritizing size for the sake of size/toughness we will start sounding like a certain one track poster who has the same answer for everything that ails the team. It's never that simple.

 

[Kalv]

Herniated disc at 17 is not good!

I have a bias though, I also had a herniated disc at 17 from sports and that injury did not age well.

You're still able to carry the whole Ducks Prospects thread on your back tho

 

[Ducks DVM]

He has been the most consistently accurate at picking the draft order. 7/10 NHL team scouts would take Silayev top 4 so there must be something there other than him just being big.

Meaning at least 40% of those scouts would not take him at 3.

Do you have a source for his success level? Not being trollish, that’s the kind of thing I’d actually love to see.

 

[Rasp]

Meaning at least 40% of those scouts would not take him at 3.

Do you have a source for his success level? Not being trollish, that’s the kind of thing I’d actually love to see.

I'm not sure if there is somewhere with the numbers crunched but that will have an element of bias to it since what is 'success' when it comes to NHL players? Points? Games? Cups? How do you weigh all of this together?

It is well known he is the guy when it comes to draft lists predicting the outcome of the draft. I have been closely following the draft since 2019 and he has easily been the best source for accurate rankings through that time. Recently Pronman has gotten really good too especially his ranking released right before the draft.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I'm not sure if there is somewhere with the numbers crunched but that will have an element of bias to it since what is 'success' when it comes to NHL players? Points? Games? Cups? How do you weigh all of this together?

It is well known he is the guy when it comes to draft lists predicting the outcome of the draft. I have been closely following the draft since 2019 and he has easily been the best source for accurate rankings through that time. Recently Pronman has gotten really good too especially his ranking released right before the draft.

It would be interesting to have a %correct by draft position I suppose.

As far as the rest, I think a first sort of NHL games played (>100 seems to be a pretty common metric for “being an NHL player”), points would have to be weighted by position, I’m honestly not sure what metric you measure defensemen by.

I’m honesty less impressed by guessing draft position (because that can be weighted by having contacts with the drafting teams vs independent insight) that how his picks pan out as players in 5/10 years. That’s a lot of work for someone, but being right about players >>> being right about draft order IMO.

 

[HanSolo]

You guys are taking Yakemchuk

Hard pass please