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Speculation: With the cap going up significantly for at least the next 3 years, would any players resign before testing the open market?

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MHO

Registered User
Sep 27, 2023
463
506
I just thought with the cap going up like it was just announced, wouldn't any player going into free agency this summer want to test the market before resigning with their team? You never know what another team might offer or how they plan to use their cap space with it going up the way it will. A player can always resign after seeing what they can get from other teams.

I guess with only a few months left in the season, the risk mitigation of signing a deal before potentially getting injured wouldn't outweigh the earning potential of the open market.

What do you guys think?
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Depends how much leverage the player has. Players with lots of leverage will sign contracts that factor in the future rise in cap. Those who have little to no leverage will continue getting less.
 
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They still get to negotiate with their own teams knowing that the cap is going up. So it's not like they have new bargaining power in the open market that they don't have when negotiating an extension.

I don't think you'll see significantly more players hit UFA just because of the cap increases.
 
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They will just negotiate from the numbers being published by the NHL. If a player is worth 8% of the cap then they will adjust the numbers accordingly. It's like buying UFA years when signing a RFA that would've become a free agent.

Nothing is going to change.
 
Has it ever been announced that the cap is expected to rise by $25M or 30% within the next 3 years though? That's the new wrinkle. Yeah you can use that info to negotiate with your current team but why not explore how other teams view the rising cap?

I'm really just thinking about this summer's class. When you extend the timeframe out, not resigning adds further risk because it's more opportunities to get injured or for your game to go bad.

RE: Marcus Pettersson: yeah that goes against my logic.

MHO said:
Has it ever been announced that the cap is expected to rise by $25M or 30% within the next 3 years though? That's the new wrinkle. Yeah you can use that info to negotiate with your current team but why not explore how other teams view the rising cap?

I'm really just thinking about this summer's class. When you extend the timeframe out, not resigning adds further risk because it's more opportunities to get injured or for your game to go bad.

RE: Marcus Pettersson: yeah that goes against my logic. But maybe there was some kind of understanding before the trade went through.
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MHO said:
Has it ever been announced that the cap is expected to rise by $25M or 30% within the next 3 years though? That's the new wrinkle. Yeah you can use that info to negotiate with your current team but why not explore how other teams view the rising cap?

I'm really just thinking about this summer's class. When you extend the timeframe out, not resigning adds further risk because it's more opportunities to get injured or for your game to go bad.

RE: Marcus Pettersson: yeah that goes against my logic.
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As you note, that works two ways. Teams may be willing to sign players to larger contracts now than they otherwise would have knowing the cap hit % will decline quicker.
 
mouser said:
As you note, that works two ways. Teams may be willing to sign players to larger contracts now than they otherwise would have knowing the cap hit % will decline quicker.
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Agents are going to drive GM’s nuts! Everyone is going to want their bag of money and there will be some instability for a bit IMO. New rates for stars who need a new contract, combined with a lot of guys on value contracts through prime years and not happy about it. More than ever before
 
mouser said:
As you note, that works two ways. Teams may be willing to sign players to larger contracts now than they otherwise would have knowing the cap hit % will decline quicker.
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Right but why not test the open market and see what every team would be willing to offer instead of just 1?
 
MHO said:
Right but why not test the open market and see what every team would be willing to offer instead of just 1?
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Let's ask John Klingberg about that.

The player bears the ever-present risks of injury, poor performance, and just plain old misreading the market.

In hindsight, a rejected offer might look pretty good later on. Especially if it's no longer available.
 
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Ciao said:
Let's ask John Klingberg about that.

The player bears the ever-present risks of injury, poor performance, and just plain old misreading the market.

In hindsight, a rejected offer might look pretty good later on. Especially if it's no longer available.
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And 50M guaranteed is far better than a 90% chance of 60M and a 10% chance of under 1M, because of declining value of additional income.
 
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Kaprizov will this summer. With this injury issues , he's not going to take a chance to get injured again next year and his worth go down. wild are prepared to offer him 15-18 mil per year and I don't see him turning that down along with a full No Movement / No trade clause.
 
If you're an older player, cash in now and guarantee a lot of money when you're 33-37.

If you're a younger player, only take 2-3 years and get paid even more in 2027/8
 
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